Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * December 18, 2009 * Specter, Toomey Deadlocked In - Quinnipiac University

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December 18, 2009 - Specter, Toomey Deadlocked In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Gets Good Score On War, Bad Marks For Health Care

Word format Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter and Republican challenger Pat Toomey are deadlocked 44 - 44 percent in Pennsylvania's marquee 2010 U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. President Barack Obama's job approval in this pivotal swing state remains below 50 percent at 49 - 45 percent.
Sen. Specter holds a commanding 53 - 30 percent lead in the Democratic Senate primary over Congressman Joe Sestak, a slight increase from the 44 - 25 percent margin when the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University last surveyed Pennsylvania voters October 1.
Specter, who spent more than three decades in public life as a Republican, switched parties earlier this year and held an impressive 53 - 33 percent lead over Toomey in a May 4 Quinnipiac University poll. But that gap narrowed in the spring and summer. Toomey took a statistically insignificant 43 - 42 percent lead in an October 1 survey, virtually unchanged from today's 44 - 44 percent tie.
"With less than 11 months to go, Sen. Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey are neck-and-neck. Specter has the state's Democratic registration advantage on his side, while Toomey can take heart in the numbers that show problems for Specter in measures in addition to the horse race," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"For example, voters say 50 - 38 percent he does not deserve reelection."
"In the meantime, Toomey has begun to introduce himself to the bare majority of Pennsylvania voters who are not familiar enough to have an opinion on whether they like him or not. Toomey's blank slate in the minds of voters is Specter's best chance to reverse his fortunes. In other words, it is Specter's opportunity to convince Pennsylvanians that although they may be lukewarm about him, Toomey will give them the shivers," said Brown.
Pennsylvania voters give Specter a split 47 - 45 percent job approval rating and an equally split 43 - 45 percent favorability.
Toomey gets a 35 - 10 percent favorability, but 55 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
President Obama's Approval
President Obama's 49 - 45 percent approval compares to a 49 - 42 percent score in an October 1 Quinnipiac University poll. In this latest survey, the President gets a positive rating from 82 percent of Democrats, 45 percent of independents and 17 percent of Republicans.
And the overall job approval rating is actually better than when voters are asked about Obama's performance on health care and the economy. They disapprove 50 - 45 percent of Obama's handling of the economy and disapprove 56 - 37 percent of his handling of health care. On Afghanistan, they approve 51 - 41 percent.
"The President's job approval rating in Pennsylvania should be troubling to the White House. Pennsylvania has been trending Democratic in recent years and Obama had a double- digit 55 - 44 percent win in the 2008 election," said Brown. "But what's ailing him in Pennsylvania - unhappiness over health care and the economy - is no different than what is producing similar, and in some places worse numbers for the President elsewhere."
The most popular major elected official in Pennsylvania is U.S. Sen. Robert Casey Jr., who gets a 53 - 29 percent job approval.
From December 8 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,381 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Specter 53% 51% 54% Sestak 30 32 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 15 14 17
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS............... Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 Specter 53 44 55 50 Sestak 30 25 23 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 15 28 19 27
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 44% 12% 78% 36% 40% 47% 52% Toomey 44 80 11 44 52 37 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - DK/NA 11 7 10 18 7 16 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 47% 67% 41% 45% 41% 49% 29% Toomey 44 20 39 41 52 37 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 8 10 18 12 5 14 11
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Specter 44 42 45 46 53 Toomey 44 43 44 37 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - 3 1 DK/NA 11 13 10 14 10
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 35% 7% 69% 27% 34% 37% 33% Toomey 40 74 9 40 47 34 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 22 18 18 31 17 26 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 39% 62% 34% 40% 25% 32% 24% Toomey 36 18 39 40 46 34 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 3 1 2 4 - DK/NA 23 19 24 18 26 30 20
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 Sestak 35 35 35 37 Toomey 40 38 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 DK/NA 22 25 23 23
9. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 43% 17% 68% 42% 42% 45% 49% Unfavorable 45 74 21 44 50 41 42 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 9 10 7 10 7 REFUSED 3 1 3 4 1 4 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 45% 58% 41% 48% 45% 42% 33% Unfavorable 46 28 44 44 48 45 55 Hvn't hrd enough 8 10 13 6 4 10 9 REFUSED 1 4 3 2 2 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE.... High Low Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Nov 26 Oct 1 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 Favorable 43 42 45 46 52 56 42 Unfavorable 45 46 44 39 34 23 46 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 9 14 12 19 10 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 2 3 2
10. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 35% 53% 16% 35% 43% 28% 37% Unfavorable 10 4 14 12 11 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 55 42 70 52 45 63 56 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 34% 24% 34% 34% 38% 28% 45% Unfavorable 18 9 14 11 3 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 48 67 50 55 59 66 48 REFUSED - - 2 - - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 35 34 34 27 20 14 Unfavorable 10 12 10 11 13 6 Hvn't hrd enough 55 53 56 61 67 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2
11. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 20% 15% 25% 19% 22% 18% 18% Unfavorable 9 11 5 10 10 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 70 74 68 69 66 74 73 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 15% 39% 17% 36% 5% 7% 13% Unfavorable 7 7 8 18 1 4 8 Hvn't hrd enough 78 52 73 44 94 88 78 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 20 21 23 18 Unfavorable 9 8 7 5 Hvn't hrd enough 70 70 69 76 REFUSED 1 2 1 -
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 47% 20% 71% 45% 46% 47% 51% Disapprove 45 74 20 45 49 42 40 DK/NA 8 6 8 10 5 10 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 47% 61% 46% 49% 38% 45% 42% Disapprove 49 32 40 44 51 44 52 DK/NA 4 6 14 7 11 11 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Nov 26 Oct 1 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 Approve 47 44 47 51 56 62 44 Disapprove 45 48 46 39 36 25 48 DK/NA 8 9 7 9 8 13 9
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 53% 39% 72% 47% 55% 51% 60% Disapprove 29 43 11 33 31 27 20 DK/NA 18 18 17 20 14 22 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 54% 68% 52% 51% 44% 54% 50% Disapprove 30 20 29 28 31 24 35 DK/NA 16 12 20 21 24 22 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 May 28 Mar 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 Approve 53 53 53 56 55 56 46 Disapprove 29 29 25 21 21 21 18 DK/NA 18 18 21 23 24 23 35
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 49% 17% 82% 45% 45% 52% 50% Disapprove 45 77 14 47 49 42 45 DK/NA 6 6 4 8 5 6 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 48% 80% 52% 49% 37% 50% 36% Disapprove 46 15 45 48 54 43 56 DK/NA 6 5 3 3 9 7 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 49 49 56 62 66 61 63 Disapprove 45 42 37 31 29 30 22 DK/NA 6 9 7 7 5 9 15
25. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes/deserves 38% 15% 58% 36% 36% 39% 45% No/does not 50 77 26 50 56 45 45 DK/NA 12 8 16 14 8 16 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/deserves 40% 54% 41% 38% 31% 35% 30% No/does not 54 34 44 50 55 50 57 DK/NA 6 11 15 12 14 15 13
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 38 37 40 42 49 38 40 No/Does not 50 52 49 43 41 41 43 DK/NA 12 11 11 15 10 20 17
26. Does President Obama's support of Arlen Specter for United States Senator make you more likely to vote for Specter, less likely to vote for Specter, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds More likely 11% 2% 23% 7% 9% 14% 12% Less likely 17 32 3 17 17 16 11 Doesn't make diff 71 66 73 75 73 69 76 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl More likely 21% 18% 6% 14% 4% 6% 9% Less likely 18 11 14 16 18 19 19 Doesn't make diff 61 72 81 69 75 75 69 DK/NA - - - 1 3 - 3
TREND: Does President Obama's support of Arlen Specter for United States Senator make you more likely to vote for Specter, less likely to vote for Specter, or doesn't it make a difference?
Dec 18 Oct 1 2009 2009 More likely 11 12 Less likely 17 18 Doesn't make diff 71 68 DK/NA 1 2
28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 45% 17% 77% 39% 41% 49% 44% Disapprove 50 79 20 54 54 46 52 DK/NA 5 4 3 7 4 5 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 47% 78% 51% 45% 30% 46% 32% Disapprove 49 20 42 50 63 51 64 DK/NA 4 2 7 5 7 4 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 45 46 50 56 59 Disapprove 50 47 43 36 26 DK/NA 5 7 7 8 16
29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 37% 8% 64% 34% 36% 37% 34% Disapprove 56 88 25 60 59 53 57 DK/NA 7 4 11 6 4 10 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 33% 63% 40% 38% 20% 36% 29% Disapprove 57 31 52 55 70 56 65 DK/NA 10 6 8 7 10 8 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care?
Dec 18 Oct 1 2009 2009 Approve 37 39 Disapprove 56 53 DK/NA 7 8
30. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 51% 44% 62% 46% 53% 48% 45% Disapprove 41 47 31 47 40 42 46 DK/NA 8 9 7 7 7 9 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 45% 66% 47% 60% 42% 43% 47% Disapprove 46 27 46 33 45 54 43 DK/NA 9 7 7 7 13 4 10