Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * March 2, 2010 * Specter Takes Lead In Pennsylv - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> Pennsylvania (PA)> Release Detail

March 2, 2010 - Specter Takes Lead In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Have Little Trust In Government

Word format Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter leads Democratic primary challenger, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 53 - 29 percent and has pushed ahead of Republican Pat Toomey 49 - 42 percent in a general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, up from a 44 - 44 percent tie December 18. In a battle of the unknowns, Toomey leads Sestak 39 - 36 percent with 24 percent undecided.
President Barack Obama's job approval rating in Pennsylvania remains below 50 percent, at 49 - 46 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Fewer than one in five Pennsylvanians think the federal government in Washington, or the state government in Harrisburg, does the right thing almost all or most of the time.
"Sen. Arlen Specter seems to be having a good winter politically. He is back ahead of Republican Pat Toomey after having been essentially tied with him since last summer, and there remains no evidence that his primary challenger, Congressman Joe Sestak, has made much progress as we get within three months of the May primary," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Specter's lead over Toomey is built upon a 52 - 36 percent margin among women voters, while Toomey has a small 49 - 46 percent lead among men, an indication that the gender gap remains alive and well.
"Specter's edge is that he is so much better known than his challengers at this point. Only 11 percent of voters say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion," said Brown, "while 74 percent of voters including 73 percent of Democrats say Sestak is too unfamiliar for them to have an opinion."
"Toomey remains unfamiliar to 65 percent of voters. Toomey has eight months to close that gap, but Sestak has a much shorter timeline, given the May 18 primary," Brown added.
But Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 38 percent Specter does not deserve another term in the Senate. Voters give Specter a narrow 48 - 45 percent approval rating. By comparison, the state's other Democratic U.S. Senator, Bob Casey Jr., gets a 53 - 29 percent approval rating.
Among Democrats who have some opinion of both Specter and Sestak, Sestak leads 54 - 37 percent.
Although he was a Republican until last April, Democrats say 48 - 29 percent that Specter more than Sestak shares their values.
President Obama's Approval
President Obama's job approval rating has been ever so slightly below 50 percent in Pennsylvania since October. As is the case nationally, his biggest loss in support has come from independent voters, who now disapprove of his job performance 51 - 42 percent, compared to a narrow 47 - 45 percent disapproval December 18.
"President Obama's overall job approval is linked to his 51 - 44 percent disapproval on handling the economy and 58 - 35 percent disapproval for handling health care," Brown said.
Voter anger is apparent by how little trust there is that government will do what voters consider to be the right thing. Only 1 percent of Keystone State voters say the federal government does what is right almost all the time, and 10 percent say it does right "most of the time," while 53 percent say "only some of the time" and 35 percent say "hardly ever."
The politicians in Harrisburg rate only slightly higher. They too get a 1 percent rating on "almost all the time," but 17 percent say they do the right thing "most of the time;" 60 percent say "only some of the time," and 21 percent say "hardly ever."
"Voters are slightly higher on the folks in Harrisburg than Washington D.C., but they are really unhappy with both," said Brown.
From February 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,452 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 649 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Specter 53% 52% 54% Sestak 29 37 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 14 8 18
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS....................... Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Specter 53 53 44 55 50 Sestak 29 30 25 23 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 14 15 28 19 27
7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 49% 15% 82% 45% 46% 52% 56% Toomey 42 78 11 42 49 36 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 8 7 5 11 5 10 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 55% 76% 41% 50% 44% 49% 39% Toomey 37 14 49 42 47 42 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 - 2 1 - DK/NA 6 7 9 7 7 8 8
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Specter 49 44 42 45 46 53 Toomey 42 44 43 44 37 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 3 1 DK/NA 8 11 13 10 14 10
8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 36% 3% 71% 28% 37% 36% 37% Toomey 39 74 10 40 45 33 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 - 1 2 DK/NA 24 22 18 30 17 30 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 34% 62% 32% 45% 30% 30% 26% Toomey 32 15 45 36 45 42 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 - - - 1 DK/NA 29 23 22 17 25 28 26
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Sestak 36 35 35 35 37 Toomey 39 40 38 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 3 DK/NA 24 22 25 23 23
9. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 44% 20% 67% 41% 41% 46% 52% Unfavorable 43 72 18 46 52 36 37 Hvn't hrd enough 11 8 13 12 6 16 10 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 46% 64% 42% 47% 38% 46% 33% Unfavorable 41 22 43 42 56 41 52 Hvn't hrd enough 11 13 11 9 7 12 14 REFUSED 2 - 4 1 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE.... High Low Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 Nov 26 Oct 1 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 Favorable 44 43 42 45 46 56 42 Unfavorable 43 45 46 44 39 23 46 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 10 9 14 19 10 REFUSED 1 3 2 2 2 3 2
10. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 26% 44% 11% 26% 33% 19% 25% Unfavorable 8 2 11 10 11 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 65 53 76 63 55 74 68 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 24% 9% 28% 29% 23% 23% 34% Unfavorable 7 10 10 11 7 3 7 Hvn't hrd enough 68 80 60 60 68 74 59 REFUSED 1 1 3 1 2 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 26 35 34 34 27 20 14 Unfavorable 8 10 12 10 11 13 6 Hvn't hrd enough 65 55 53 56 61 67 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
11. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 18% 9% 23% 23% 22% 15% 20% Unfavorable 6 7 2 8 8 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 74 83 73 69 68 80 75 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 11% 29% 15% 38% 11% 10% 10% Unfavorable 4 3 4 10 8 8 5 Hvn't hrd enough 84 66 78 50 80 81 84 REFUSED - 2 3 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 18 20 21 23 18 Unfavorable 6 9 8 7 5 Hvn't hrd enough 74 70 70 69 76 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 -
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 48% 22% 75% 44% 44% 52% 53% Disapprove 45 75 18 49 53 39 41 DK/NA 6 3 7 8 3 9 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 52% 60% 45% 53% 40% 51% 41% Disapprove 39 28 49 43 58 45 52 DK/NA 9 12 6 4 3 4 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 Nov 26 Oct 1 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 Approve 48 47 44 47 51 62 44 Disapprove 45 45 48 46 39 25 48 DK/NA 6 8 9 7 9 13 9
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 53% 35% 70% 51% 54% 52% 55% Disapprove 29 49 12 29 32 26 27 DK/NA 18 16 17 20 14 22 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 54% 60% 56% 51% 52% 49% 52% Disapprove 26 20 32 27 35 37 29 DK/NA 20 20 12 22 13 14 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 28 Mar 28 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 Approve 53 53 53 53 56 56 46 Disapprove 29 29 29 25 21 21 18 DK/NA 18 18 18 21 23 23 35
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 49% 16% 83% 42% 43% 55% 48% Disapprove 46 81 14 51 53 40 47 DK/NA 4 2 3 7 4 5 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*Low also 49% Dec 2009 & Oct 2009)
APPROVE....... High Low Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 2 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010* Approve 49 49 49 56 62 66 49 Disapprove 46 45 42 37 31 29 46 DK/NA 4 6 9 7 7 5 4
24. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes/deserves 38% 15% 60% 37% 35% 41% 42% No/does not 52 80 27 54 59 45 46 DK/NA 10 5 14 9 6 14 11 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/deserves 44% 52% 39% 40% 31% 41% 30% No/does not 46 34 51 50 62 52 59 DK/NA 10 14 10 10 7 7 11
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
DESERVES...... High Low Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Oct 1 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 38 38 37 40 42 49 37 No/Does not 52 50 52 49 43 41 52 DK/NA 10 12 11 11 15 10 11
25. Does President Obama's support of Arlen Specter for United States Senator make you more likely to vote for Specter, less likely to vote for Specter, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds More likely 12% 1% 27% 6% 10% 14% 15% Less likely 18 40 3 17 22 15 17 Doesn't make diff 69 58 69 77 67 70 67 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl More likely 15% 26% 16% 12% 5% 10% 6% Less likely 14 6 24 16 26 23 20 Doesn't make diff 69 68 57 71 69 68 72 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 - - 1
TREND: Does President Obama's support of Arlen Specter for United States Senator make you more likely to vote for Specter, less likely to vote for Specter, or doesn't it make a difference?
Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 2010 2009 2009 More likely 12 11 12 Less likely 18 17 18 Doesn't make diff 69 71 68 DK/NA 1 1 2
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 44% 14% 75% 37% 39% 47% 44% Disapprove 51 83 20 56 57 47 54 DK/NA 5 3 4 7 4 6 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 Mar 25 Feb 12 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 44 45 46 50 56 59 Disapprove 51 50 47 43 36 26 DK/NA 5 5 7 7 8 16
28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - health care?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 35% 9% 60% 31% 33% 37% 37% Disapprove 58 89 30 61 62 55 60 DK/NA 7 2 10 8 5 9 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care?
Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 2010 2009 2009 Approve 35 37 39 Disapprove 58 56 53 DK/NA 7 7 8
29. Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care reform plan?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Support 37% 7% 67% 32% 35% 39% 39% Oppose 52 86 19 56 56 48 51 DK/NA 11 7 15 12 9 13 10
TREND: Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care reform plan?
Mar 2 Oct 1 2010 2009 Support 37 41 Oppose 52 47 DK/NA 11 12
30. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right - almost all of the time, most of the time, only some of the time, or hardly ever?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Almost all the time 1% - 2% - 1% 1% - Most of the time 10 5 16 9 8 12 13 Some of the time 53 46 65 49 50 56 57 Hardly ever 35 49 15 41 41 30 30 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1 -
31. How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Harrisburg to do what is right - almost all of the time, most of the time, only some of the time, or hardly ever?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Almost all the time 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% Most of the time 17 14 21 14 14 19 17 Some of the time 60 62 61 57 60 60 63 Hardly ever 21 23 14 28 24 18 17 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 1 1 1
32. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign - Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Specter 53% 50% 55% Sestak 25 32 21 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 3 5 DK/NA 17 15 19
33. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values - Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Specter 48% 47% 48% Sestak 29 36 25 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 20 15 24