Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * March 3, 2010 * Corbett Leads Unknowns In Penn - Quinnipiac University

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March 3, 2010 - Corbett Leads Unknowns In Pennsylvania Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Oppose Rendell Sales Tax Plan

Word format Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett has a 43 - 5 percent lead over State Representative Sam Rohrer for the Republican nomination for governor and holds double-digit leads over the top Democratic candidates, all of whom who are virtual unknowns even to their own party members, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
"Don't know" leads the field for the Democratic nomination with 59 percent, followed by Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato with 16 percent, State Auditor General Jack Wagner with 11 percent, 2004 U.S. Senate nominee Joel Hoeffel at 10 percent and State. Sen. Tony Williams at 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Gov. Ed Rendell remains unpopular with voters as he completes his final year in office, as voters disapprove 49 - 43 percent of the job he is doing, unchanged from December 17.
Voters say 49 - 6 percent Gov. Rendell's plan to increase state spending next year by 4.1 percent was too much rather than too little. Another 35 percent say it's about right.
By a 53 - 40 percent margin, voters oppose the Governor's plan to raise more money by cutting the state sales tax but expanding items covered by it.
"The Democratic candidates for Governor are almost invisible men as far as the voters are concerned. One of them will win the nomination, but at this point they are so closely bunched together and such mystery men to the vast majority of primary voters that any result is possible, given that the primary is little more than 10 weeks away," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In a four-candidate race, the possibilities are endless."
Onorato and Wagner are the best known of the four Democrats and 64 or 65 percent of Democrats don't know enough about them to have an opinion. Hoeffel is unfamiliar to 73 percent and Williams to 93 percent.
Corbett isn't a household name by any stretch, but at least half of voters statewide have an opinion about him, and by 43 - 7 percent it is favorable, which explains his lead in the polls. For Rohrer, 91 percent don't know enough about him.
If the election were held today Corbett would defeat Onorato 42 - 32 percent, Wagner 42 - 30 percent and Hoeffel 41 - 30 percent.
Gov. Ed Rendell, who is barred from seeking a third term by law, is well known to Pennsylvania voters and not all that favorably, as his 49 - 43 percent disapproval continues an eight-month negative streak.
Rendell's rating looks pretty good compared to the State Legislature, which gets a 59 - 29 percent disapproval rating from the voters, better than 64 - 25 percent December 17.
"Rendell's budget plan strikes Pennsylvania voters as too generous in tough times. Almost half, 49 percent, say his spending plans are too much, while only 6 percent think the state should be spending more money. A third, 35 percent, think it's about right."
Democrats back Rendell's proposed changes to the sales tax with a bare 51 - 41 percent majority, while independent voters oppose it 53 - 40 percent and Republicans overwhelmingly oppose it 66 - 28 percent.
Another Rendell tax plan to tax energy companies drilling in the state's Marcellus Shale on the value of the natural gas they produced gets plurality support, 49 - 41 percent.
"Such narrow support for a tax on energy companies - a traditional political whipping boy - is an indication of the general anti-tax mood of the electorate," said Brown.
From February 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,452 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 649 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, and 605 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams and Joe Hoeffel, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Onorato 16% 16% 16% Wagner 11 13 9 Williams 2 1 2 Hoeffel 10 13 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 59 55 61
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams, and Joe Hoeffel, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS............... Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 Onorato 16 14 14 16 Wagner 11 7 11 16 Williams 2 na na na Hoeffel 10 8 12 na Knox na 5 5 13 Doherty na 6 8 na SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 59 59 46 54
3. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tom Corbett and Sam Rohrer, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Corbett 43% 47% 39% Rohrer 5 6 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 DK/NA 49 44 55
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tom Corbett and Sam Rohrer, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS............... Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 Corbett 43 38 42 31 Rohrer 5 na na na Gerlach na 12 13 13 Meehan na na na 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 - DK/NA 49 47 43 48
4. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 32% 3% 64% 23% 28% 36% 32% Corbett 42 77 15 40 50 34 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 24 19 19 33 20 28 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 57% 56% 21% 23% 25% 40% 21% Corbett 31 16 46 45 53 42 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 10 26 31 29 18 17 27
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2009 2009 Onorato 32 30 28 Corbett 42 45 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 24 22 24
5. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Wagner 30% 4% 63% 19% 30% 30% 36% Corbett 42 76 14 40 48 36 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 26 19 22 37 20 32 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Wagner 39% 51% 25% 26% 30% 30% 23% Corbett 35 17 42 45 50 46 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 - - 1 1 DK/NA 22 29 32 27 19 22 28
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2009 2009 Wagner 30 33 29 Corbett 42 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 26 23 25
6. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Hoeffel 30% 3% 61% 20% 27% 32% 34% Corbett 41 75 15 39 49 34 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 27 21 23 37 21 33 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Hoeffel 31% 57% 22% 37% 21% 19% 22% Corbett 40 10 43 40 52 49 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 DK/NA 28 31 33 20 23 30 28
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 3 Dec 17 2010 2009 Hoeffel 30 30 Corbett 41 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 27 23
12. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 20% 10% 29% 17% 19% 20% 22% Unfavorable 8 11 5 9 10 7 9 Hvn't hrd enough 71 78 64 73 70 71 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 65% 11% 10% 9% 25% 39% 6% Unfavorable 24 1 1 4 15 24 3 Hvn't hrd enough 9 86 86 87 57 36 90 REFUSED 1 1 3 - 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 20 18 17 16 Unfavorable 8 9 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 71 72 71 78 REFUSED 1 1 2 1
13. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 20% 14% 29% 18% 23% 18% 19% Unfavorable 7 8 4 7 8 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 71 76 65 74 68 74 73 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 2 3 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 41% 17% 14% 12% 19% 29% 18% Unfavorable 19 1 3 5 12 7 4 Hvn't hrd enough 38 79 79 82 64 64 75 REFUSED 2 2 3 1 5 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 20 22 22 18 Unfavorable 7 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 71 72 71 76 REFUSED 2 1 1 1
14. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 15% 9% 20% 15% 16% 14% 23% Unfavorable 7 8 5 6 10 4 6 Hvn't hrd enough 77 81 73 78 72 81 71 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 11% 28% 11% 29% 8% 9% 7% Unfavorable 4 7 5 16 8 2 4 Hvn't hrd enough 85 62 80 54 82 88 88 REFUSED - 2 3 1 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2009 2009 Favorable 15 13 13 Unfavorable 7 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 77 79 80 REFUSED 1 1 1
15. Is your opinion of - Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 3% 1% 5% 2% 3% 2% 3% Unfavorable 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 Hvn't hrd enough 95 96 93 96 94 95 96 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable - 6% 1% 5% 2% 1% 2% Unfavorable 3 - - 2 6 1 1 Hvn't hrd enough 97 93 96 92 90 98 96 REFUSED - - 3 1 2 - 1
16. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 43% 62% 32% 39% 53% 35% 46% Unfavorable 7 3 11 9 8 7 12 Hvn't hrd enough 48 35 55 50 39 55 40 REFUSED 2 - 2 2 1 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 47% 24% 37% 41% 53% 50% 49% Unfavorable 7 7 10 8 4 5 9 Hvn't hrd enough 46 67 49 51 41 44 41 REFUSED 1 2 4 1 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 43 43 43 38 Unfavorable 7 6 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 48 50 49 55 REFUSED 2 1 1 1
17. Is your opinion of - Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 5% 7% 3% 4% 6% 4% 6% Unfavorable 3 4 2 3 4 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 91 87 94 93 89 93 91 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 2% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4% 9% Unfavorable 2 - - 5 5 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 96 95 94 91 91 93 85 REFUSED - - 4 1 4 - 1
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 43% 26% 60% 42% 40% 46% 42% Disapprove 49 70 27 52 55 43 48 DK/NA 8 3 14 6 5 11 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 34% 68% 41% 62% 31% 33% 32% Disapprove 48 26 53 30 63 60 61 DK/NA 18 6 6 8 6 7 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 Feb 7 Jul 21 Jul 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 2007 2009 2009 Approve 43 43 42 39 61 39 39 Disapprove 49 49 51 53 30 53 53 DK/NA 8 7 6 8 9 8 8
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 29% 23% 41% 24% 26% 32% 30% Disapprove 59 67 47 62 65 53 60 DK/NA 12 10 12 14 9 15 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 29% 39% 26% 36% 24% 25% 25% Disapprove 56 44 63 56 61 62 63 DK/NA 15 17 11 8 15 13 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE..... High Low Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 Apr 10 Dec 17 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2003 2009 Approve 29 25 27 27 42 49 25 Disapprove 59 64 64 57 40 24 64 DK/NA 12 11 9 15 18 27 11
23. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very satisfied 2% 1% 3% - 1% 2% 2% Smwht satisfied 37 23 55 34 35 39 39 Smwht dissatisfied 37 42 29 38 37 36 37 Very dissatisfied 23 33 12 28 26 21 22 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% - Smwht satisfied 49 46 40 44 29 26 30 Smwht dissatisfied 32 37 29 35 42 44 39 Very dissatisfied 16 16 27 18 24 27 29 DK/NA 2 1 - 1 - - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*Low also 39% Sep 2009)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 Jun 5 Mar 3 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2002 2010 Very satisfied 2 4 2 3 6 8 2 Smwht satisfied 37 38 37 38 50 60 37 Smwht dissatisfied 37 38 36 35 29 22 37 Very dissatisfied 23 19 23 22 13 8 23 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 2 3 1
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 36% 19% 52% 34% 35% 37% 35% Disapprove 53 72 36 54 56 51 54 DK/NA 11 8 12 11 9 13 11 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 26% 72% 35% 50% 22% 23% 25% Disapprove 62 23 55 37 68 68 63 DK/NA 12 5 11 12 10 9 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 Mar 25 Feb 12 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 36 38 34 33 44 42 Disapprove 53 54 60 60 43 47 DK/NA 11 8 7 7 14 11
34. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign - Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Onorato 19% 19% 20% Wagner 15 21 11 Williams 4 3 4 Hoeffel 14 16 13 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 4 5 DK/NA 43 37 47
35. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values - Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Onorato 18% 17% 18% Wagner 14 20 10 Williams 4 4 4 Hoeffel 13 16 11 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 4 DK/NA 48 40 54
36. Governor Rendell has proposed a state budget for next year that would raise spending by four point one percent next year. Do you think the increase is too much, not enough or about right?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Too much 49% 62% 33% 53% 53% 45% 46% Not enough 6 5 7 6 6 6 9 About right 35 23 49 31 32 37 35 DK/NA 11 9 11 10 9 12 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Too much 47% 30% 48% 44% 54% 57% 56% Not enough 6 12 6 5 7 3 5 About right 33 48 36 41 30 31 28 DK/NA 14 9 10 11 9 9 11
37. Governor Rendell has proposed cutting the state sales tax from six percent to four percent but extending it to cover many items that are not currently taxed. In all, the taxes are aimed at raising about an additional five hundred million dollars in revenue. Do you support or oppose this change in the state sales tax?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Support 40% 28% 51% 40% 40% 40% 43% Oppose 53 66 41 53 54 52 51 DK/NA 7 7 7 7 6 9 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Support 43% 47% 31% 45% 30% 38% 40% Oppose 49 41 64 46 67 59 53 DK/NA 8 12 6 9 4 3 7
38. Governor Rendell has proposed that energy companies drilling for natural gas in Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale pay a new tax based on the value of the energy they produce. Do you support or oppose this new tax?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Support 49% 38% 60% 52% 53% 45% 57% Oppose 41 51 29 40 40 41 34 DK/NA 10 11 10 9 6 14 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Support 50% 54% 45% 58% 33% 42% 50% Oppose 42 32 44 31 56 49 41 DK/NA 7 14 10 10 11 9 9