Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * September 16, 2004 * Bush Moves Into Razor-Thin Edg - Quinnipiac University

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September 16, 2004 - Bush Moves Into Razor-Thin Edge In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Cite Leadership, Vision, Moral Values

President George W. Bush has come from behind to move into a razor-thin 47 - 44 percent lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry among Pennsylvania registered voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Sen. Kerry had a 48 - 43 percent lead over President Bush in an August 18 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Among likely Pennsylvania voters, including undecided voters leaning toward a candidate, Bush leads 49 - 48 percent, too close to call.
Military veterans, not including family members, back Bush 54 - 34 percent.
Looking at key presidential qualities, Pennsylvania voters say:
56 - 38 percent that Bush acts more like a leader than Kerry; 54 - 36 percent that Bush has done a better job explaining what he would do; 48 - 43 percent that Bush's moral values are closer to their own values.
"The President's bounce from the Republican Convention has turned the battle for Pennsylvania from a five-point Kerry lead to a slight Bush advantage. The numbers show that clearly the GOP and the President hammered home the message that he is a stronger leader with a clearer vision of where he wants to take this country in the next four years," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Republican attacks on Kerry's ability also hit the mark: Fewer than four in 10 Pennsylvania voters feel Kerry would be a stronger leader, even though they say he clearly is the best candidate to handle the nation's uncertain economy," Richards added.
Voters split 47 - 47 percent on whether going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do. But 52 percent say U.S. casualties in Iraq are higher than expected.
"The war in Iraq divides Pennsylvania, as it does much of the nation, right down the middle. But even some of those who say going to war was the wrong thing to do want to stay the course with the President. The 10 percent of those Pennsylvania voters who say the war is wrong but are still voting for Bush could be one of the most significant voter blocs in a close election," Richards said.
Given four choices, 32 percent list the economy as the most important issue in the campaign, followed by 25 percent who list terrorism, 21 percent who list the war in Iraq, and 18 percent for health care.
Looking at which candidate does best on key issues, Pennsylvania voters say:
50 - 42 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy; 54 - 39 percent that Bush would do better on the situation in Iraq; 57 - 35 percent that Bush would do better on terrorism; 54 - 36 percent that Kerry would do better on health care. Senate Race
Incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter holds a 51 - 33 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, the Democratic challenger, similar to results in the last three polls.
"Little has changed in this race and 65 percent of Pennsylvania voters still haven't heard enough about Hoeffel to form an opinion," Richards said.
From September 11 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,205 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 792 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 52 30 17 Aug 18, 2004 50 32 18 Jul 13, 2004 54 30 15 Jun 24, 2004 51 31 18 May 27, 2004 49 31 19 Apr 22, 2004 46 33 22 Mar 18, 2004 46 35 19 Feb 19,2004 48 36 16 Dec 16, 2003 46 34 19 Oct 16, 2003 50 28 22 Aug 6, 2003 51 29 21 May 23, 2003 49 27 24 Apr 10, 2003 51 19 30 Feb 20, 2003 54 12 33
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 46 33 22 Aug 18, 2004 42 37 22 Jul 13, 2004 45 37 18 Jun 24, 2004 43 38 20 May 27, 2004 40 39 21 Apr 22, 2004 37 38 25 Mar 18, 2004 40 40 20 Feb 19,2004 40 39 21 Dec 16, 2003 38 44 18 Oct 16, 2003 43 37 19 Aug 6, 2003 41 39 20 May 23, 2003 45 33 22 Apr 10, 2003 49 24 27
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 52 37 12 Aug 18, 2004 50 36 15 Jul 14, 2004 51 35 14 Jun 24, 2004 51 38 10 May 27, 2004 48 41 11 Apr 22, 2004 47 36 17 Mar 18, 2004 49 36 15 Feb 18, 2004 53 32 15 Dec 17, 2003 57 31 12 Oct 15, 2003 54 31 16 Aug 7, 2003 57 27 16 May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sept. 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 54 30 16 Aug 18, 2004 52 30 18 Jul 14, 2004 53 28 19 Jun 24, 2004 52 29 18 May 27, 2004 53 28 19 Apr 22, 2004 47 30 22 Mar 18, 2004 51 28 21 Feb 18, 2004 53 27 20 Dec 17, 2003 56 29 15 Oct 15, 2003 54 28 18 Aug 7, 2003 56 28 17 May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sept. 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26
TREND: Suppose/If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?
Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 33 51 1 1 14 Aug 18, 2004 33 48 1 2 15 Jul 14, 2004 36 51 1 2 10 Jun 24, 2004 35 50 1 2 13 May 27, 2004 37 49 1 2 11 Mar 18, 2004 29 45 3 3 20 Dec 17, 2003 32 50 1 2 14 Oct 15, 2003 33 50 2 2 13 Aug 7, 2003 29 53 2 2 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
App Dis DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 48 48 3 Aug 18, 2004 45 52 3 Jul 14, 2004 45 52 3 Jun 24, 2004 45 53 2 May 27, 2004 41 55 5 Apr 21, 2004 47 49 4 Mar 17, 2004 48 48 4 Feb 18, 2004 47 49 3 Dec 17, 2003 53 43 4 Oct 15, 2003 51 44 6 Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sept. 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 44 47 1 2 7 Aug 18, 2004 48 43 1 2 6 Jul 14, 2004 49 42 1 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 49 43 2 1 5 May 27, 2004 45 42 2 2 9 Apr 21, 2004 42 46 2 2 7 Mar 17, 2004 45 44 3 - 7 Feb 18, 2004 50 45 1 1 3
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
Smone Wldn't JK GWB RN Else Vote DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 42 46 6 1 1 5 Aug 18, 2004 47 42 4 - 1 6 Jul 14, 2004 46 41 5 - 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 44 43 7 1 1 4 May 27, 2004 44 41 6 - 2 7 Apr 21, 2004 39 45 8 1 1 7 Mar 17, 2004 40 44 7 1 - 8
TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed Hrd Refused Sep 16, 2004 42 40 17 1 - Aug 18, 2004 41 40 18 1 - Jul 14, 2004 39 42 18 1 - Jun 24, 2004 39 42 17 2 1 May 27, 2004 34 42 22 1 1 Apr 21, 2004 39 37 22 1 - Mar 17, 2004 41 36 21 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed Hrd Refused Sep 16, 2004 34 36 25 5 1 Aug 18, 2004 37 31 25 7 - Jul 14, 2004 35 28 28 9 - Jun 24, 2004 33 30 29 8 1 May 27, 2004 32 27 31 10 1 Apr 21, 2004 24 31 27 17 - Mar 17, 2004 28 27 26 18 1
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Right Wrong DK/NA Sep 16, 2004 47 47 6 Aug 18, 2004 46 48 6 Jul 14, 2004 43 51 6 Jun 24, 2004 43 50 7 May 27, 2004 42 51 7 Apr 21, 2004 49 45 6 Mar 17, 2004 52 39 9
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Approve 52% 37% 69% 48% 53% 51% 47% Disapprove 30 46 15 31 33 29 34 DK/NA 17 17 15 21 14 20 19 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 48% 78% 47% 69% 44% 47% 36% Disapprove 27 15 32 18 35 36 45 DK/NA 25 7 21 14 21 17 19
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Approve 46% 49% 47% 39% 48% 43% 44% Disapprove 33 29 32 40 34 32 38 DK/NA 22 22 21 21 18 25 18 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 34% 63% 42% 52% 41% 40% 43% Disapprove 43 28 32 28 31 29 36 DK/NA 23 9 25 20 28 30 21
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Approve 52% 58% 49% 48% 52% 51% 54% Disapprove 37 31 42 37 38 35 36 DK/NA 12 11 9 16 9 14 9 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 36% 54% 55% 52% 56% 48% 56% Disapprove 51 37 34 37 32 42 31 DK/NA 13 9 11 12 12 10 13
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Approve 54% 75% 37% 49% 55% 54% 60% Disapprove 30 12 47 32 32 27 28 DK/NA 16 13 16 19 13 19 12 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 42% 45% 53% 47% 67% 60% 64% Disapprove 50 27 28 34 19 29 23 DK/NA 8 28 20 20 14 11 13
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Approve 48% 84% 14% 46% 54% 43% 55% Disapprove 48 14 83 48 44 52 44 DK/NA 3 2 3 6 2 4 1 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 40% 24% 47% 41% 54% 55% 65% Disapprove 59 74 49 54 42 41 32 DK/NA 1 2 4 6 4 4 3
6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran A lot 65% 66% 65% 67% 69% 61% 66% Some 25 24 26 24 20 28 19 Only a little 9 9 7 7 9 8 11 None at all 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA - - - - - - - Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl A lot 71% 67% 72% 60% 64% 68% 59% Some 20 18 20 29 22 22 31 Only a little 4 12 7 9 11 8 8 None at all 5 3 - 1 2 2 1 DK/NA - 1 - - - - -
7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes registered voters.
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 44% 11% 81% 39% 39% 48% 34% Bush 47 84 13 44 52 43 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 3 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 4 DK/NA 7 4 5 11 6 7 8 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Kerry 59% 69% 41% 46% 35% 45% 27% Bush 38 22 44 42 58 52 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 4 2 - 2 DK/NA 3 7 12 8 4 3 7
7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes likely voters.
Likely Voters Kerry 47 Bush 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 3
7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q7) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry or Bush? This table includes 'leaners'.
Likely plus Leaners Kerry 48% Bush 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 2
7a. (If candidate choice q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
Kerry Bush Tot Vtr q7 Vtr q7 Made up 89% 92% 86% Might change 11 8 13 DK/NA 1 1 1
8a. (If Kerry voter q7) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Kerry Vtr q7 For Kerry 44% Against Bush 53 DK/NA 3
8b. (If Bush voter q7) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?
Bush Vtr q7 For Bush 79 Against Kerry 18 DK/NA 4
9. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 42% 10% 79% 34% 39% 45% 34% Bush 46 83 12 41 51 42 53 Nader 6 4 5 12 5 6 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 2 DK/NA 5 3 3 10 4 6 4 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Kerry 54% 69% 40% 44% 34% 41% 26% Bush 37 21 44 40 57 53 60 Nader 5 8 6 6 7 4 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 2 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 2 - - 1 DK/NA 3 2 8 8 2 2 7
11. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from Pennsylvania - a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran A lot 14% 16% 12% 13% 14% 13% 20% Some 30 27 34 32 30 31 27 Only a little 33 36 32 29 35 31 31 None at all 23 21 22 24 20 25 20 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 - 2 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl A lot 14% 19% 11% 14% 12% 13% 12% Some 32 25 32 29 25 38 31 Only a little 31 35 33 30 33 30 35 None at all 23 21 23 25 30 19 21 DK/NA - - 1 2 - - 1
12. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Hoeffel 33% 12% 54% 33% 31% 34% 31% Specter 51 75 31 48 55 48 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 14 10 13 18 12 16 14 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Hoeffel 48% 54% 26% 34% 18% 35% 22% Specter 39 33 54 48 66 52 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - 3 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 12 10 17 17 11 11 15
12. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?
Likely Voters Hoeffel 37% Specter 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 10
12. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q12) As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely Plus Leaners Hoeffel 38% Specter 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 6
14. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 42% 77% 11% 35% 46% 38% 50% Unfavorable 40 8 71 41 38 42 36 Mixed 17 14 17 23 15 19 11 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 REFUSED - - - 1 - - 1 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 36% 17% 40% 34% 50% 47% 57% Unfavorable 57 62 41 38 34 36 26 Mixed 6 19 17 27 15 16 16 Hvn't hrd enough - 1 1 - 1 1 1 REFUSED - 1 1 - - - 1
15. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 34% 8% 63% 28% 31% 36% 29% Unfavorable 36 68 7 32 39 32 43 Mixed 25 21 24 33 25 25 25 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 5 7 3 6 2 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 1 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 45% 52% 38% 31% 27% 34% 22% Unfavorable 30 17 36 31 45 33 48 Mixed 21 20 22 34 24 26 24 Hvn't hrd enough 3 9 3 4 4 5 6 REFUSED - 3 - - 1 1 0
16. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 14% 10% 16% 19% 15% 13% 15% Unfavorable 31 34 30 29 34 28 34 Mixed 20 20 21 21 23 18 21 Hvn't hrd enough 33 34 31 28 26 39 27 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 16% 17% 16% 17% 9% 12% 12% Unfavorable 30 28 31 30 34 35 30 Mixed 18 20 17 27 17 23 18 Hvn't hrd enough 33 32 34 26 35 30 38 REFUSED 3 4 2 1 4 - 1
17. Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 15% 5% 26% 17% 17% 14% 20% Unfavorable 7 13 3 5 10 5 12 Mixed 12 13 11 11 12 12 13 Hvn't hrd enough 65 68 60 67 61 69 55 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 - Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 19% 28% 11% 19% 8% 14% 9% Unfavorable 2 8 3 12 8 6 7 Mixed 10 12 8 18 11 8 12 Hvn't hrd enough 69 52 76 50 72 71 71 REFUSED - - 2 - 1 - 1
18. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 35% 45% 29% 32% 35% 36% 40% Unfavorable 22 15 28 23 22 22 19 Mixed 29 30 29 29 33 25 31 Hvn't hrd enough 13 10 14 16 10 15 10 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 1 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 27% 36% 34% 33% 41% 34% 40% Unfavorable 27 27 19 21 20 25 20 Mixed 30 23 33 31 26 31 28 Hvn't hrd enough 16 14 13 16 11 9 12 REFUSED - 1 1 - 2 1 -
19. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Very satisfied 10% 22% 2% 4% 12% 8% 10% Smwht satisfied 37 55 18 39 38 35 42 Smwht dissatisfied 29 15 40 31 26 31 23 Very dissatisfied 24 7 40 25 22 25 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 12% 6% 9% 8% 16% 7% 12% Smwht satisfied 26 18 37 40 37 45 44 Smwht dissatisfied 28 39 32 31 23 24 25 Very dissatisfied 34 34 22 21 23 24 18 DK/NA - 2 - 1 2 - 1
20. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president -- the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Iraq 21% 14% 25% 22% 21% 21% 21% Economy 32 24 40 32 33 31 33 Terrorism 25 45 8 22 28 23 30 Health care 18 13 23 20 16 20 13 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 5 3 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Iraq 25% 23% 12% 30% 25% 19% 13% Economy 35 35 33 29 28 32 32 Terrorism 22 14 25 26 23 24 32 Health care 14 27 19 11 19 18 20 DK/NA 3 - 11 4 4 6 3
21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 36% 68% 9% 33% 39% 34% 39% Kerry 54 21 85 56 52 56 48 DK/NA 10 10 6 11 9 10 12 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Bush 28% 13% 32% 28% 53% 41% 53% Kerry 65 81 52 62 35 53 38 DK/NA 6 6 16 10 12 6 9
22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 42% 78% 11% 36% 46% 39% 46% Kerry 50 14 85 55 47 53 43 DK/NA 7 8 4 9 7 8 10 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Bush 32% 18% 41% 34% 54% 48% 59% Kerry 63 73 52 56 40 47 33 DK/NA 5 9 7 11 6 5 8
23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 54% 88% 24% 53% 61% 49% 61% Kerry 39 10 70 41 35 44 31 DK/NA 6 3 7 6 5 7 7 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Bush 42% 35% 48% 53% 66% 56% 70% Kerry 51 61 44 43 28 36 25 DK/NA 7 5 7 5 7 9 6
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 57% 87% 27% 59% 63% 51% 63% Kerry 35 8 64 34 30 40 26 DK/NA 8 5 9 6 7 10 10 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Bush 46% 33% 56% 55% 63% 59% 71% Kerry 48 58 31 38 27 33 22 DK/NA 6 9 13 6 11 9 7
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 38% 8% 72% 34% 35% 40% 32% Bush 56 89 24 57 60 52 62 DK/NA 6 3 4 9 4 8 6 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Kerry 49% 62% 40% 39% 34% 34% 21% Bush 46 33 53 52 62 60 72 DK/NA 5 4 7 9 4 5 7
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 36% 13% 62% 31% 30% 41% 27% Bush 54 83 27 57 61 48 61 DK/NA 10 5 11 13 9 11 12 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Kerry 41% 56% 40% 37% 28% 39% 24% Bush 52 35 49 51 64 55 64 DK/NA 7 9 11 12 8 6 12
27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate comes closer to sharing your moral values - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 43% 10% 78% 41% 40% 44% 33% Bush 48 85 14 46 52 46 55 DK/NA 9 5 8 13 8 10 12 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Kerry 57% 67% 45% 44% 34% 36% 27% Bush 39 19 47 44 59 56 64 DK/NA 4 14 8 11 7 8 9
28. How important is it to your vote for President what John Kerry and George Bush did during the Vietnam war? Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Very important 13% 8% 18% 13% 11% 15% 15% Somewhat 21 17 25 24 22 21 23 Not too 27 28 26 25 27 27 25 Not at all 37 46 30 35 39 35 36 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very important 12% 17% 16% 12% 12% 13% 11% Somewhat 24 20 26 21 21 20 19 Not too 27 23 22 31 25 32 26 Not at all 36 39 36 35 37 34 41 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 4 1 3
30. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as -- excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Excellent 3% 7% 0% 1% 4% 2% 4% Good 36 61 14 35 42 32 43 Not so good 39 26 49 38 34 42 34 Poor 22 6 36 25 20 23 18 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 - 1 - Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Excellent 1% 3% 2% 2% 5% 6% 3% Good 29 14 40 43 42 29 44 Not so good 45 49 28 37 32 42 38 Poor 24 35 28 17 21 22 14 DK/NA - - 1 - - 1 1
31. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Right thing 47% 79% 18% 41% 51% 43% 52% Wrong thing 47 16 76 54 46 49 44 DK/NA 6 5 6 5 4 8 4 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Right thing 34% 23% 46% 41% 53% 57% 61% Wrong thing 62 68 47 52 43 36 34 DK/NA 3 9 7 7 4 7 5
32. Have more Americans been killed in Iraq than you expected, less than expected, or is it about what you expected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran More than expected 52% 40% 66% 49% 48% 56% 44% Less than expected 17 24 11 13 21 13 25 About as expected 27 32 20 31 28 26 26 DK/NA 4 4 3 7 4 5 5 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl More than expected 46% 60% 46% 56% 51% 52% 53% Less than expected 25 12 19 11 24 14 16 About as expected 22 27 26 28 23 28 28 DK/NA 7 1 9 4 3 6 3
33. Do you intend to vote by absentee ballot in the 2004 presidential election?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Yes 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 9% 7% No 90 89 91 91 91 88 91 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 14% 14% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% No 86 83 92 90 90 92 92 DK/NA - 2 3 3 4 1 1