Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * September 28, 2004 * Kerry Inches Ahead In See-Saw - Quinnipiac University

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September 28, 2004 - Kerry Inches Ahead In See-Saw Pennsylvania Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Will Watch Debates, Say They Are Important

Democratic challenger John Kerry has moved ahead by a nose among Pennsylvania likely voters and now holds a 49 - 46 percent lead over President George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This tally includes undecided voters leaning toward a candidate.
President Bush had 49 percent to Sen. Kerry's 48 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters in a September 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Most Pennsylvania voters, 60 percent, say they are "very likely" to watch the presidential debates, with 29 percent who say "somewhat likely."
The debates are "very important" in deciding how they will vote, 26 percent say, with 28 percent who say "somewhat important;" 21 percent who say "not too important" and 24 percent who say "not at all important."
"Rising anti-war sentiment in Pennsylvania has given John Kerry a narrow edge over President Bush. A Philadelphia businessman was the first American citizen beheaded in Iraq, and that image has been dramatically replayed in the past week," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Three weeks ago, support for the war in Iraq was split 47 - 47 percent in Pennsylvania. Now, voters say 49 - 43 percent that the war was the wrong thing to do."
"The result has strengthened Kerry's lead in the critical Philadelphia suburbs, while cutting into the president's domination of central Pennsylvania. These numbers show how volatile the race is in this key battleground state and how uncertain the outcome continues to be," Richards added.
Among Kerry supporters, 50 percent say their vote is more against Bush, while 45 percent say they are voting more for the Democrat. Among Bush supporters, 79 percent say their vote is more for Bush, with 15 percent voting more against Kerry.
Looking at presidential qualities, Pennsylvania registered voters say:
54 - 39 percent that Bush acts more like a leader than Kerry; 51 - 36 percent that Bush has done a better job explaining what he would do.
Given four choices, 31 percent list the economy as the most important issue in the campaign, followed by 24 percent who list the war in Iraq, 22 percent who list terrorism and 18 percent for health care.
Looking at which candidate does best on key issues, Pennsylvania voters say:
52 - 41 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy; 47 - 44 percent, a statistical tie, that Bush would do better on the situation in Iraq; 52 - 39 percent that Bush would do better on terrorism; 55 - 34 percent that Kerry would do better on health care. Senate Race
Incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter holds a 56 - 37 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, the Democratic challenger, among likely voters including leaners.
"As long as 58 percent of voters don't know enough about Congressman Hoeffel to form an opinion, he remains a long shot to upset Sen. Specter," Richards said.
From September 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,125 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 726 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? This table includes registered voters.
Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Sep 28, 2004 46 41 1 1 11 Sep 16, 2004 44 47 1 2 7 Aug 18, 2004 48 43 1 2 6 Jul 14, 2004 49 42 1 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 49 43 2 1 5 May 27, 2004 45 42 2 2 9 Apr 21, 2004 42 46 2 2 7 Mar 17, 2004 45 44 3 - 7 Feb 18, 2004 50 45 1 1 3
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? This table includes likely voters.
LIKELY VOTERS ....................... Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Sep 28, 2004 46 44 1 1 8 Sep 16, 2004 47 48 1 1 3
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry or Bush? This table includes 'Leaners'.
LIKELY VOTERS PLUS LEANERS........... Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Sep 28, 2004 49 46 1 - 4 Sep 16, 2004 48 49 - - 2
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
Smone Wldn't JK GWB RN Else Vote DK/NA Sep 28, 2004 46 42 4 - - 8 Sep 16, 2004 42 46 6 1 1 5 Aug 18, 2004 47 42 4 - 1 6 Jul 14, 2004 46 41 5 - 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 44 43 7 1 1 4 May 27, 2004 44 41 6 - 2 7 Apr 21, 2004 39 45 8 1 1 7 Mar 17, 2004 40 44 7 1 - 8
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?
Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Sep 28, 2004 33 52 1 1 13 Sep 16, 2004 33 51 1 1 14 Aug 18, 2004 33 48 1 2 15 Jul 14, 2004 36 51 1 2 10 Jun 24, 2004 35 50 1 2 13 May 27, 2004 37 49 1 2 11 Mar 18, 2004 29 45 3 3 20 Dec 17, 2003 32 50 1 2 14 Oct 15, 2003 33 50 2 2 13 Aug 7, 2003 29 53 2 2 15
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?
LIKELY VOTERS ....................... Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Sep 28, 2004 35 53 1 1 11 Sep 16, 2004 37 52 1 2 10
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'.
LIKELY VOTERS PLUS LEANERS........... Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Sep 28, 2004 37 56 1 1 5 Sep 16, 2004 38 54 1 1 6
TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed Hrd Refused Sep 28, 2004 36 40 21 1 1 Sep 16, 2004 42 40 17 1 - Aug 18, 2004 41 40 18 1 - Jul 14, 2004 39 42 18 1 - Jun 24, 2004 39 42 17 2 1 May 27, 2004 34 42 22 1 1 Apr 21, 2004 39 37 22 1 - Mar 17, 2004 41 36 21 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed Hrd Refused Sep 28, 2004 35 33 27 4 1 Sep 16, 2004 34 36 25 5 1 Aug 18, 2004 37 31 25 7 - Jul 14, 2004 35 28 28 9 - Jun 24, 2004 33 30 29 8 1 May 27, 2004 32 27 31 10 1 Apr 21, 2004 24 31 27 17 - Mar 17, 2004 28 27 26 18 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or havent't you heard enough about him?
Haven't Fav Unfav Mixed heard Ref Sep 28, 2004 38 15 30 14 1 Sep 16, 2004 35 22 29 13 1 Aug 18, 2004 34 23 31 11 1 Jul 14, 2004 37 23 29 10 1 Jun 24, 2004 36 21 30 12 1 May 27, 2004 32 24 35 9 - Mar 18, 2004 35 24 30 9 1 Feb 18, 2004 41 22 28 9 - Dec 17, 2003 43 21 26 10 1 Oct 15, 2003 43 22 24 10 1 Aug 7, 2003 47 19 27 7 1 May 22, 2003 47 16 24 12 1 Apr 10, 2003 41 18 22 18 1 Feb 21, 2003 42 15 27 15 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Haven't Fav Unfav Mixed heard Ref Sep 28, 2004 18 8 14 58 1 Sep 16, 2004 15 7 12 65 1 Aug 18, 2004 13 9 11 66 2 Jul 14, 2004 12 7 14 66 1 Jun 24, 2004 10 7 9 73 1 May 27, 2004 13 7 11 68 1 Mar 18, 2004 10 6 14 70 1 Feb 18, 2004 12 3 9 76 1 Dec 17, 2003 13 4 11 72 1 Oct 15, 2003 11 4 10 74 - Aug 7, 2003 12 4 10 72 2
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Right Wrong DK/NA Sep 28, 2004 43 49 8 Sep 16, 2004 47 47 6 Aug 18, 2004 46 48 6 Jul 14, 2004 43 51 6 Jun 24, 2004 43 50 7 May 27, 2004 42 51 7 Apr 21, 2004 49 45 6 Mar 17, 2004 52 39 9
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 46% 9% 80% 50% 41% 51% 38% Bush 41 81 9 33 46 36 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 3 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 11 9 9 13 11 12 12 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Kerry 56% 67% 42% 51% 40% 40% 35% Bush 27 23 44 34 46 50 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 3 1 2 - - DK/NA 17 10 11 12 11 9 10 No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush Kerry 45% 49% 73% 49% 21% 86% 9% Bush 41 41 15 35 71 5 81 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - - - DK/NA 12 9 10 13 8 9 9 Age in years............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Kerry 56% 42% 43% 43% Bush 33 50 41 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 - DK/NA 9 8 12 16 Annual hshold income <30 30-50 50-100 >100K Kerry 48% 48% 45% 40% Bush 36 38 45 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 14 12 8 3
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes likely voters.
Likely Voters Kerry 46% Bush 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 8
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, or Bush? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely plus Leaners Kerry 49% Bush 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 4
2. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
Kerry Bush Tot Vtr q1 Vtr q1 Made up 90% 89% 91% Might change 9 10 9 DK/NA 1 1 1
3a. (If 'Kerry' q1) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Kerry Vtr q1 For Kerry 45% Against Bush 50 DK/NA 6
3b. (If 'Bush' q1) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?
Bush Vtr q1 For Bush 79% Against Kerry 15 DK/NA 5
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 46% 10% 79% 48% 40% 51% 39% Bush 42 82 12 33 48 37 51 Nader 4 1 3 8 4 4 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 6 6 11 7 8 6
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes registered voters.
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Hoeffel 33% 8% 57% 30% 27% 38% 27% Specter 52 80 32 47 58 47 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 13 10 11 18 13 12 13 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Hoeffel 46% 44% 27% 37% 18% 37% 23% Specter 42 42 54 47 62 52 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 - - 1 DK/NA 10 12 16 14 17 10 12
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes likely voters.
Likely Voters Hoeffel 35% Specter 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 11
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q5) As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely plus Leaners Hoeffel 37% Specter 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 DK/NA 5
6. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 36% 72% 9% 28% 41% 32% 48% Unfavorable 40 9 67 45 39 42 34 Mixed 21 17 22 26 19 23 18 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 2 - - 2 - REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1
7. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 35% 7% 63% 35% 30% 39% 32% Unfavorable 33 68 6 25 37 29 44 Mixed 27 21 28 33 27 27 21 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 3 6 5 4 3 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
8. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 12% 8% 11% 20% 14% 11% 14% Unfavorable 29 26 33 30 33 26 30 Mixed 20 25 17 17 21 18 22 Hvn't hrd enough 37 37 37 32 30 43 33 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 2 3 1
9. Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 18% 6% 30% 19% 16% 20% 19% Unfavorable 8 14 3 7 10 7 11 Mixed 14 17 14 11 16 13 16 Hvn't hrd enough 58 62 52 62 57 58 52 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 2 2
10. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 38% 49% 31% 35% 42% 35% 43% Unfavorable 15 8 23 14 13 18 19 Mixed 30 32 29 32 31 30 26 Hvn't hrd enough 14 10 17 16 12 16 11 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1 1 2
11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Very satisfied 9% 19% 1% 7% 11% 7% 15% Smwht satisfied 29 49 14 25 34 25 33 Smwht dissatisfied 30 20 37 36 28 32 26 Very dissatisfied 30 11 46 30 26 34 25 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
12. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Iraq 24% 16% 29% 26% 21% 26% 25% Economy 31 22 38 33 35 27 25 Terrorism 22 42 7 16 25 20 27 Health care 18 14 22 18 14 21 19 DK/NA 5 6 4 6 5 6 4
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 34% 71% 6% 24% 38% 31% 42% Kerry 55 18 85 66 51 59 50 DK/NA 11 11 9 11 10 11 8
14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 41% 80% 9% 34% 47% 35% 53% Kerry 52 13 85 57 46 57 41 DK/NA 8 6 6 9 8 8 5
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 47% 85% 16% 42% 53% 42% 58% Kerry 44 9 75 49 40 49 35 DK/NA 8 6 9 9 8 9 7
16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 52% 87% 21% 50% 58% 46% 61% Kerry 39 7 67 42 33 44 33 DK/NA 9 6 11 7 9 9 7
17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 39% 7% 67% 44% 33% 44% 30% Bush 54 88 27 46 58 50 62 DK/NA 7 5 6 10 9 6 8
18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 36% 10% 60% 36% 31% 41% 30% Bush 51 82 25 50 58 45 61 DK/NA 12 8 15 14 11 14 9
19. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Excellent 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2% 5% Good 34 63 11 26 39 30 45 Not so good 39 24 52 46 35 43 32 Poor 23 7 35 25 22 24 17 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 -
20. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Right thing 43% 71% 21% 39% 49% 38% 53% Wrong thing 49 19 74 53 44 53 41 DK/NA 8 10 5 8 6 9 6
21. How likely is it that you will watch the upcoming presidential debates between John Kerry and George W. Bush? Very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Very likely 60% 60% 61% 58% 60% 60% 60% Smwht likely 29 29 28 32 29 28 27 Not likely 11 10 11 10 11 11 13 DK/NA - 1 - - - 1 -
22. How important will the debates be to you in deciding how to vote for president - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Very important 26% 21% 32% 23% 23% 29% 27% Somewhat 28 28 28 35 28 29 23 Not too 21 23 19 19 20 21 22 Not at all 24 27 21 22 29 19 29 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 2 -