Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * June 5, 2002 * Rendell Has Early Lead In Penn - Quinnipiac University

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June 5, 2002 - Rendell Has Early Lead In Pennsylvania Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; GOP's Fisher Remains Largely Unknown


Hot off a solid win in a hard-fought Democratic primary, Ed Rendell has an early 45 - 37 percent lead over Republican State Attorney General Mike Fisher in the Pennsylvania governor's race, according to Quinnipiac University's first poll of the Keystone State released today. The former Philadelphia mayor leads 80 - 13 percent among registered voters in the city and 62 - 24 percent in the suburbs. Rendell gets 42 percent to the Republican's 38 percent, a statistical tie, in Allegheny County, where Fisher served as a state senator.
Fisher leads 52 - 26 percent in traditionally Republican central Pennsylvania.
From May 28 - June 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 944 Pennsylvania registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.
"There's nothing like a bruising primary fight to give a candidate high name recognition and Mayor Rendell's got it. Attorney General Fisher has all summer, and maybe some help from a very popular President Bush, to cut into that 62 percent who don't know much about him and level the playing field by Labor Day," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Fisher only ties Rendell in his own backyard. But he's getting some help from Casey voters and opponents of abortion and gun control. Still, he'll probably need a strong program on education and taxes to really challenge Rendell."
Rendell's favorability is 38 - 23 percent among registered voters, with 21 percent mixed and 18 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Fisher gets a 19 - 7 percent favorability rating, with 11 percent mixed and 62 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Pennsylvania voters give President Bush very high approval ratings while top statewide leaders all break 50 percent:
President Bush gets a 73 - 21 percent approval; Gov. Mark Schweiker's approval is 51 - 10 percent, with 39 percent undecided; Sen. Arlen Spector's approval is 56 - 23 percent, with 21 percent undecided; Sen. Rick Santorum's approval is 52 - 22 percent, with 26 percent undecided.
In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 25 percent of Pennsylvanians say the economy or jobs is the most important problem facing the state, followed by 20 percent who list education and 10 percent who list taxes.
Abortion should be legal in all cases, 21 percent of voters say, while 32 percent say it should be legal in most cases; 24 percent say it should be illegal in most cases and 15 percent say it should be illegal in all cases.
It is more important to control gun ownership than to protect the right of Americans to own guns, Pennsylvania voters say 55 - 40 percent.
"Some good news for Fisher: Voters who list jobs and the economy as the state's most important problem split evenly between Rendell and Fisher," Richards said.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Schweiker is handling his job as Governor?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds Approve 51% 63% 45% 41% 56% 46% 49% Disapprove 10 6 15 10 11 10 13 DK/NA 39 31 39 49 33 44 38 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 51% 37% 60% 51% 50% 50% 54% Disapprove 13 19 5 9 12 10 8 DK/NA 36 44 36 41 38 40 38
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds Approve 56% 57% 58% 48% 59% 53% 65% Disapprove 23 22 21 31 25 22 16 DK/NA 21 21 21 21 16 26 19 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 57% 55% 60% 56% 46% 56% 56% Disapprove 30 21 23 25 31 20 19 DK/NA 13 23 17 19 23 24 25
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds Approve 52% 66% 44% 42% 56% 48% 50% Disapprove 22 10 27 33 25 19 30 DK/NA 26 23 29 25 19 33 20 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 48% 34% 54% 49% 59% 62% 56% Disapprove 37 24 19 19 20 22 18 DK/NA 14 42 27 32 22 16 26
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds Approve 73% 91% 61% 67% 73% 74% 72% Disapprove 21 6 32 26 23 19 21 DK/NA 6 4 7 8 4 8 7 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 67% 54% 71% 73% 75% 82% 82% Disapprove 30 38 21 23 12 13 12 DK/NA 4 8 8 5 13 4 5
6. Is your opinion of former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Casey Union primary Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds voter Favorable 38% 26% 49% 38% 38% 38% 36% 13% Unfavorable 23 29 18 21 24 21 26 37 Mixed 21 25 17 23 22 21 23 30 Hvn't hrd enough 18 19 16 17 16 19 16 20 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 - - Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 33% 70% 30% 65% 18% 20% 21% Unfavorable 28 16 24 9 33 29 27 Mixed 21 10 21 18 25 28 26 Hvn't hrd enough 18 4 25 8 23 22 24 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 1 1 QUE 11..... QUE 12....... QUE 10............. Pro Pro Pro Pro PA problems........ choice life gunRts gunCon Ecnmy Educ Taxes Favorable 49% 22% 24% 48% 31% 53% 39% Unfavorable 17 30 30 17 22 20 23 Mixed 19 25 26 19 28 18 18 Hvn't hrd enough 14 21 19 16 18 9 19 REFUSED - 1 1 - - - 1
7. Is your opinion of state Attorney General Mike Fisher favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Casey Union primary Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds voter Favorable 19% 27% 14% 14% 24% 15% 19% 26% Unfavorable 7 3 11 6 8 7 10 11 Mixed 11 12 10 14 12 11 9 11 Hvn't hrd enough 62 58 64 64 55 68 62 50 REFUSED - - 1 1 - - - 1 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 30% 7% 18% 11% 23% 27% 23% Unfavorable 14 8 7 4 9 8 5 Mixed 13 10 11 9 14 10 13 Hvn't hrd enough 41 75 64 76 52 55 60 REFUSED 1 - - - 2 - - QUE 11..... QUE 12....... QUE 10............. Pro Pro Pro Pro PA problems........ choice life gunRts gunCon Ecnmy Educ Taxes Favorable 16% 24% 28% 12% 26% 15% 21% Unfavorable 9 5 5 9 8 10 6 Mixed 12 11 12 12 12 9 20 Hvn't hrd enough 62 58 56 66 54 66 51 REFUSED - 1 - 1 - - 2
8. If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Mike Fisher the Republican for whom would you vote?
Casey Union primary Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds voter Rendell 45% 20% 69% 45% 42% 48% 47% 40% Fisher 37 64 18 28 41 33 35 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 14 12 10 23 13 15 15 16 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 42% 80% 41% 62% 37% 33% 26% Fisher 38 13 38 24 44 46 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 4 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 4 1 2 5 5 DK/NA 16 7 14 13 16 16 17 QUE 11..... QUE 12....... QUE 10............. Pro Pro Pro Pro PA problems........ choice life gunRts gunCon Ecnmy Educ Taxes Rendell 56% 32% 29% 58% 41% 61% 37% Fisher 28 50 52 26 38 29 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 2 - 5 DK/NA 11 14 13 14 18 10 12
9. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today - are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds Very satisfied 8% 11% 6% 4% 11% 5% 9% Smwht satisfied 60 65 57 60 56 63 57 Smwht dissatisfied 22 17 25 25 24 20 25 Very dissatisfied 8 4 11 8 8 8 9 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 2 3 - Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 4% 9% 5% 12% 4% 6% 9% Smwht satisfied 59 49 66 60 50 50 70 Smwht dissatisfied 21 33 21 20 28 25 15 Very dissatisfied 16 7 6 3 11 17 6 DK/NA 1 2 2 5 7 1 1
10. What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Crime total: 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 4% Crime/Violence general 2 2 3 2 3 2 Drugs 2 3 2 1 1 2 Economy total: 25% 24% 28% 24% 29% 23% Economy general 3 3 2 5 5 2 Unemployment/jobs 20 18 24 18 22 19 Economy other 2 3 2 1 2 2 Education total: 20% 17% 25% 19% 19% 21% Education general 16 13 20 12 14 17 Funding education 1 2 2 1 2 1 Education other 3 2 3 6 3 3 Seniors issues total: 3% 3% 3% - 3% 3% Senior issues general 1 1 1 - 1 1 Prescription costs 1 1 1 - 1 1 Senior issues other 1 1 1 - 1 1 Taxes total: 10% 12% 8% 9% 12% 7% Taxes general 7 9 7 5 8 6 Property tax 2 3 1 2 3 1 Taxes other 1 - - 2 1 - Terrorism total: 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% Terrorism general 1 1 - 2 1 1 Security/Safety 1 1 1 1 1 1 Welfare 1 2 1 1 1 1 Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 4 3 4 6 3 5 Casinos/Gambling 1 1 - 1 1 - Environment/Pollution 2 1 2 3 1 2 Condition of Roads 3 4 3 3 4 3 Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 1 1 1 1 1 Other 6 7 3 11 7 5 DK/NA 11 13 11 6 8 13
11. Do you think abortion should be -- legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
Casey Union primary Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds voter Legal - all cases 21% 13% 22% 33% 15% 25% 19% 16% Legal - most cases 32 29 35 31 32 31 43 31 Illegal - most cases 24 31 20 21 29 21 19 26 Illegal - all cases 15 20 15 6 15 16 12 21 DK/NA 8 7 7 9 9 7 8 6 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Legal - all cases 21% 27% 23% 27% 9% 20% 15% Legal - most cases 33 35 27 37 30 24 31 Illegal - most cases 24 12 27 18 34 27 29 Illegal - all cases 13 18 15 10 14 22 17 DK/NA 8 8 7 7 14 7 7
12. What do you think is more important: To protect the right of Americans to own guns or to control gun ownership?
Casey Union primary Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds voter Protect rights 40% 52% 28% 44% 54% 29% 48% 40% Control ownership 55 40 69 55 42 65 48 55 DK/NA 5 9 3 1 4 6 3 5 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Protect rights 39% 22% 46% 27% 47% 53% 50% Control ownership 57 74 50 67 46 42 44 DK/NA 4 5 4 6 7 5 6
13. Do you or does anyone in your house own a gun, or not?
Casey Union primary Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom hsHlds voter Yes 42% 49% 36% 43% 52% 34% 54% 41% No 56 50 63 56 47 64 44 56 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 29% 22% 42% 32% 61% 56% 55% No 68 77 58 66 37 40 44 DK/NA 2 1 - 2 2 4 1 QUE 12....... Pro Pro gunRts gunCon Yes 65% 27% No 32 72 DK/NA 3 1