Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * October 12, 2004 * Presidential Race Is Neck And - Quinnipiac University

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October 12, 2004 - Presidential Race Is Neck And Neck In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Kerry Narrows 'Leadership' And 'Vision' Gap

The presidential horse race is neck and neck among Pennsylvania likely voters, with 49 percent for Democratic challenger John Kerry and 47 percent for President George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 49 - 46 percent Kerry lead among likely voters in a September 28 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Looking at presidential qualities, Pennsylvania registered voters say:
50 - 42 percent that Bush acts more like a leader than Kerry, compared to a 54 - 39 percent Bush lead September 28; 47 - 42 percent that Bush has done a better job explaining what he would do, compared to a 51 - 36 percent Bush lead two weeks ago.
Among registered voters backing Bush, 79 percent say their vote is mainly for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 50 percent say their vote is pro-Kerry and 44 percent say they are voting mainly against Bush.
"The Pennsylvania race will go down to the wire, but Sen. Kerry is bolstered as increasing numbers of Keystone State voters view him as a strong leader who is doing a good job explaining what he would do as President. Kerry trails the President by 5 to 8 points on these key issues, where the President enjoyed 15-point leads before the debates," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Still, after two debates, there is no major movement among voters when it comes to deciding who would do a better job on the key issues. Kerry wins on the economy and health care; Bush on terrorism and just barely on the handling of the war in Iraq," Richards added.
Given four choices, 28 percent list the economy as the most important issue in the campaign, followed by 26 percent who list terrorism, 22 percent who list the war in Iraq, and 19 percent for health care.
Looking at which candidate does best on key issues, Pennsylvania voters say:
51 - 40 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy; 52 - 39 percent that Bush would do better on terrorism; 48 - 44 percent that Bush would do better on the situation in Iraq; 55 - 34 percent that Kerry would do better on health care.
Voters say 48 - 45 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. Senate Race
Incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter holds a 55 - 36 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, the Democratic challenger, among likely voters.
Pennsylvania registered voters give Sen. Specter a 34 - 18 favorability rating, with 32 percent mixed and 14 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. For Rep. Hoeffel, 58 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion, unchanged from two weeks ago.
"The Senate race continues to show Sen. Specter with a strong lead. Rep. Hoeffel has not been able to raise his recognition among voters," Richards said.
From October 9 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,980 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. The survey includes 1,343 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, or Bush? This table includes 'Leaners'.
LIKELY VOTERS........................ Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Oct 12, 2004 49 47 - - 4 Sep 28, 2004 49 46 1 - 4 Sep 16, 2004 48 49 - - 2
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Oct 12, 2004 46 42 - 1 10 Sep 28, 2004 46 41 1 1 11 Sep 16, 2004 44 47 1 2 7 Aug 18, 2004 48 43 1 2 6 Jul 14, 2004 49 42 1 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 49 43 2 1 5 May 27, 2004 45 42 2 2 9 Apr 21, 2004 42 46 2 2 7 Mar 17, 2004 45 44 3 - 7 Feb 18, 2004 50 45 1 1 3
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JK GWB RN Else Vote DK/NA Oct 12, 2004 46 43 3 - 1 7 Sep 28, 2004 46 42 4 - - 8 Sep 16, 2004 42 46 6 1 1 5 Aug 18, 2004 47 42 4 - 1 6 Jul 14, 2004 46 41 5 - 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 44 43 7 1 1 4 May 27, 2004 44 41 6 - 2 7 Apr 21, 2004 39 45 8 1 1 7 Mar 17, 2004 40 44 7 1 - 8
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'.
LIKELY VOTERS........................ Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Oct 12, 2004 36 55 1 - 7 Sep 28, 2004 37 56 1 1 5 Sep 16, 2004 38 54 1 1 6
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Oct 12, 2004 33 51 1 2 14 Sep 28, 2004 33 52 1 1 13 Sep 16, 2004 33 51 1 1 14 Aug 18, 2004 33 48 1 2 15 Jul 14, 2004 36 51 1 2 10 Jun 24, 2004 35 50 1 2 13 May 27, 2004 37 49 1 2 11 Mar 18, 2004 29 45 3 3 20 Dec 17, 2003 32 50 1 2 14 Oct 15, 2003 33 50 2 2 13 Aug 7, 2003 29 53 2 2 15
TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed Hrd Refused Oct 12, 2004 39 40 18 1 2 Sep 28, 2004 36 40 21 1 1 Sep 16, 2004 42 40 17 1 - Aug 18, 2004 41 40 18 1 - Jul 14, 2004 39 42 18 1 - Jun 24, 2004 39 42 17 2 1 May 27, 2004 34 42 22 1 1 Apr 21, 2004 39 37 22 1 - Mar 17, 2004 41 36 21 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed Hrd Refused Oct 12, 2004 38 33 23 4 2 Sep 28, 2004 35 33 27 4 1 Sep 16, 2004 34 36 25 5 1 Aug 18, 2004 37 31 25 7 - Jul 14, 2004 35 28 28 9 - Jun 24, 2004 33 30 29 8 1 May 27, 2004 32 27 31 10 1 Apr 21, 2004 24 31 27 17 - Mar 17, 2004 28 27 26 18 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or havent't you heard enough about him?
Haven't Fav Unfav Mixed heard Ref Oct 12, 2004 34 18 32 14 1 Sep 28, 2004 38 15 30 14 1 Sep 16, 2004 35 22 29 13 1 Aug 18, 2004 34 23 31 11 1 Jul 14, 2004 37 23 29 10 1 Jun 24, 2004 36 21 30 12 1 May 27, 2004 32 24 35 9 - Mar 18, 2004 35 24 30 9 1 Feb 18, 2004 41 22 28 9 - Dec 17, 2003 43 21 26 10 1 Oct 15, 2003 43 22 24 10 1 Aug 7, 2003 47 19 27 7 1 May 22, 2003 47 16 24 12 1 Apr 10, 2003 41 18 22 18 1 Feb 21, 2003 42 15 27 15 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Haven't Fav Unfav Mixed heard Ref Oct 12, 2004 15 8 17 58 2 Sep 28, 2004 18 8 14 58 1 Sep 16, 2004 15 7 12 65 1 Aug 18, 2004 13 9 11 66 2 Jul 14, 2004 12 7 14 66 1 Jun 24, 2004 10 7 9 73 1 May 27, 2004 13 7 11 68 1 Mar 18, 2004 10 6 14 70 1 Feb 18, 2004 12 3 9 76 1 Dec 17, 2003 13 4 11 72 1 Oct 15, 2003 11 4 10 74 - Aug 7, 2003 12 4 10 72 2
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Right Wrong DK/NA Oct 12, 2004 45 48 7 Sep 28, 2004 43 49 8 Sep 16, 2004 47 47 6 Aug 18, 2004 46 48 6 Jul 14, 2004 43 51 6 Jun 24, 2004 43 50 7 May 27, 2004 42 51 7 Apr 21, 2004 49 45 6 Mar 17, 2004 52 39 9
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry or Bush? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely Voters Kerry 49% Bush 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 4
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 46% 10% 81% 51% 42% 50% 44% Bush 42 82 11 31 47 38 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 10 7 8 13 10 10 11 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Kerry 51% 73% 49% 47% 37% 44% 33% Bush 37 16 35 45 52 45 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 2 1 - DK/NA 11 8 15 7 9 10 12 No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush Kerry 45% 49% 74% 53% 18% 85% 10% Bush 43 41 17 34 72 6 81 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 - 1 - - DK/NA 11 8 7 12 8 8 8 Age in years............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Kerry 48% 44% 47% 47% Bush 40 45 44 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 1 - DK/NA 8 10 8 13 Annual HsHold income......... <30 30-50 50-100 >100K Kerry 54% 40% 43% 48% Bush 31 47 51 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - - DK/NA 14 11 6 4
2. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
Kerry Bush Vtr q1 Vtr q1 Made up 95% 91% Might change 5 8 DK/NA - 1
3a. Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Kerry Vtr q1 For Kerry 50% Against Bush 44 DK/NA 6
3b. Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?
Bush Vtr q1 For Bush 79% Against Kerry 17 DK/NA 4
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q4) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'
Likely Voters Kerry 48% Bush 46 Nader 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 4
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 46% 11% 81% 51% 42% 50% 44% Bush 43 83 11 33 47 39 47 Nader 3 1 2 6 3 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 7 5 6 9 6 8 7 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Kerry 54% 72% 51% 47% 36% 44% 33% Bush 36 17 36 46 52 48 55 Nader 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 8 7 10 4 8 7 8
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q5) As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'
Likely Voters Hoeffel 36% Specter 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE - DK/NA 7
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Hoeffel 33% 8% 56% 37% 31% 35% 29% Specter 51 80 30 44 56 47 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 2 1 1 DK/NA 14 10 13 15 11 16 10 Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Hoeffel 36% 45% 29% 37% 29% 35% 25% Specter 47 34 57 50 55 48 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 2 1 - 2 2 DK/NA 16 17 12 11 15 14 13
6. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 39% 72% 11% 31% 42% 36% 42% Unfavorable 40 9 68 43 37 42 41 Mixed 18 16 19 22 17 19 14 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 2
7. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 38% 9% 66% 39% 34% 41% 36% Unfavorable 33 66 6 27 38 29 37 Mixed 23 21 21 27 21 24 22 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 5 5 5 4 2 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 2
8. Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 15% 5% 25% 18% 16% 14% 17% Unfavorable 8 16 2 7 10 7 14 Mixed 17 15 16 22 17 17 16 Hvn't hrd enough 58 63 55 51 56 60 51 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 2
9. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 34% 46% 27% 29% 37% 31% 48% Unfavorable 18 11 25 20 17 19 18 Mixed 32 32 32 33 32 32 25 Hvn't hrd enough 14 10 15 16 12 16 7 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
10. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president -- the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Iraq 22% 19% 23% 25% 21% 22% 23% Economy 28 20 36 31 29 28 28 Terrorism 26 44 11 19 29 22 24 Health care 19 10 27 21 16 22 19 DK/NA 5 6 4 3 5 6 6
11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 34% 67% 8% 27% 37% 32% 35% Kerry 55 22 85 60 52 57 50 DK/NA 11 12 7 13 11 11 15
12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 40% 78% 10% 31% 45% 36% 44% Kerry 51 15 83 57 47 54 47 DK/NA 9 7 7 13 8 10 9
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 48% 87% 17% 40% 53% 44% 53% Kerry 44 10 75 48 40 47 38 DK/NA 8 3 8 13 7 9 9
14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 52% 88% 23% 46% 58% 48% 54% Kerry 39 9 66 41 34 42 35 DK/NA 9 3 11 13 8 10 11
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 42% 11% 74% 44% 38% 46% 39% Bush 50 86 19 43 55 45 55 DK/NA 8 3 6 12 7 8 6
16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 42% 13% 70% 45% 39% 46% 39% Bush 47 81 19 43 51 44 50 DK/NA 10 6 10 12 10 10 11
18 Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Right thing 45% 77% 18% 41% 50% 41% 47% Wrong thing 48 16 77 53 44 52 46 DK/NA 7 7 5 6 6 7 7
19. Did you happen to watch the 2nd presidential debate on Friday evening, October 8th?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Yes 64% 66% 63% 67% 67% 62% 70% No 35 34 37 33 33 37 30 DK/NA - - - - - - -
20. (If 'Yes' q19) How has your opinion of John Kerry been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of John Kerry more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran More favorable 33% 12% 53% 38% 30% 35% 32% Less favorable 15 28 3 10 17 13 19 Not changed 51 58 43 51 51 50 48 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 1
21. (If 'Yes' q19) How has your opinion of George Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of George Bush more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran More favorable 21% 38% 8% 16% 23% 20% 22% Less favorable 21 7 34 24 19 22 24 Not changed 57 55 57 60 57 56 54 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 -
22. How likely is it that you will watch the 3rd presidential debate on Wednesday evening, October 13th? Very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Very likely 62% 60% 65% 64% 61% 63% 67% Smwht likely 23 26 21 22 23 24 16 Not likely 13 14 14 13 15 12 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1