Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * October 22, 2004 * Kerry Opens 5-Point Lead In Pe - Quinnipiac University

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October 22, 2004 - Kerry Opens 5-Point Lead In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Specter Has Big Lead In Senate Race

Democratic challenger John Kerry has broken through the 50-percent mark among Pennsylvania likely voters and now holds a 51 - 46 percent lead over President George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 49 - 47 percent Kerry lead among likely voters in an October 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Despite Kerry's lead, Pennsylvania registered voters give Bush higher marks on presidential qualities, saying:
50 - 44 percent that Bush acts more like a leader than Kerry, little changed from October 12; 49 - 42 percent that Bush has done a better job explaining what he would do.
Among registered voters backing Bush, 77 percent say their vote is mainly for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 46 percent say their vote is pro-Kerry and 47 percent say they are voting mainly against Bush.
"Sen. Kerry, bolstered by his strong showing in the debates, has increased his lead slightly over President Bush in Pennsylvania, breaking through the 50-percent mark it takes to win. The shift comes as more people say the economy is the most important issue in the election - an issue voters say Kerry can handle better than Bush," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The economy always has been the sleeper issue in Pennsylvania and it looks like pocketbook voters are beginning to wake up," Richards added.
Given four choices, 30 percent list the economy as the most important issue in the campaign, followed by 25 percent who list terrorism, 20 percent who list the war in Iraq, and 19 percent for health care.
Looking at which candidate does best on key issues, Pennsylvania voters say:
53 - 40 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy; 53 - 39 percent that Bush would do better on terrorism; 49 - 43 percent that Bush would do better on the situation in Iraq; 53 - 38 percent that Kerry would do better on health care.
Voters say 48 - 45 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. Senate Race
Incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter holds a 51 - 36 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, the Democratic challenger, among likely voters, with 6 percent for Constitution Party candidate Jim Clymer.
Pennsylvania registered voters give Sen. Specter a 35 - 16 percent favorability rating, with 34 percent mixed and 14 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. For Rep. Hoeffel, 53 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion, unchanged from two weeks ago.
"Even with a third party candidate in the race, Sen. Specter gets 51 percent of the vote. At the same time, more than 50 percent still don't know enough about Rep. Hoeffel to form an opinion," Richards said.
From October 16 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,185 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 841 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, or Bush? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely voters ....................... Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Oct 22, 2004 51 46 - - 4 Oct 12, 2004 49 47 - - 4 Sep 28, 2004 49 46 1 - 4 Sep 16, 2004 48 49 - - 2
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Oct 22, 2004 47 41 - 1 10 Oct 12, 2004 46 42 - 1 10 Sep 28, 2004 46 41 1 1 11 Sep 16, 2004 44 47 1 2 7 Aug 18, 2004 48 43 1 2 6 Jul 14, 2004 49 42 1 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 49 43 2 1 5 May 27, 2004 45 42 2 2 9 Apr 21, 2004 42 46 2 2 7 Mar 17, 2004 45 44 3 - 7 Feb 18, 2004 50 45 1 1 3
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JK GWB RN Else Vote DK/NA Oct 22, 2004 47 41 5 - - 7 Oct 12, 2004 46 43 3 - 1 7 Sep 28, 2004 46 42 4 - - 8 Sep 16, 2004 42 46 6 1 1 5 Aug 18, 2004 47 42 4 - 1 6 Jul 14, 2004 46 41 5 - 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 44 43 7 1 1 4 May 27, 2004 44 41 6 - 2 7 Apr 21, 2004 39 45 8 1 1 7 Mar 17, 2004 40 44 7 1 - 8
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely Voters........................ Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Oct 22, 2004 37 55 1 - 6 Oct 12, 2004 36 55 1 - 7 Sep 28, 2004 37 56 1 1 5 Sep 16, 2004 38 54 1 1 6
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Oct 22, 2004 34 52 1 1 12 Oct 12, 2004 33 51 1 2 14 Sep 28, 2004 33 52 1 1 13 Sep 16, 2004 33 51 1 1 14 Aug 18, 2004 33 48 1 2 15 Jul 14, 2004 36 51 1 2 10 Jun 24, 2004 35 50 1 2 13 May 27, 2004 37 49 1 2 11 Mar 18, 2004 29 45 3 3 20 Dec 17, 2003 32 50 1 2 14 Oct 15, 2003 33 50 2 2 13 Aug 7, 2003 29 53 2 2 15
TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed Hrd Refused Oct 22, 2004 39 40 20 1 1 Oct 12, 2004 39 40 18 1 2 Sep 28, 2004 36 40 21 1 1 Sep 16, 2004 42 40 17 1 - Aug 18, 2004 41 40 18 1 - Jul 14, 2004 39 42 18 1 - Jun 24, 2004 39 42 17 2 1 May 27, 2004 34 42 22 1 1 Apr 21, 2004 39 37 22 1 - Mar 17, 2004 41 36 21 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hvn't Fav UnFav Mixed Hrd Refused Oct 22, 2004 37 34 25 3 1 Oct 12, 2004 38 33 23 4 2 Sep 28, 2004 35 33 27 4 1 Sep 16, 2004 34 36 25 5 1 Aug 18, 2004 37 31 25 7 - Jul 14, 2004 35 28 28 9 - Jun 24, 2004 33 30 29 8 1 May 27, 2004 32 27 31 10 1 Apr 21, 2004 24 31 27 17 - Mar 17, 2004 28 27 26 18 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or havent't you heard enough about him?
Haven't Fav Unfav Mixed heard Ref Oct 22, 2004 35 16 34 14 1 Oct 12, 2004 34 18 32 14 1 Sep 28, 2004 38 15 30 14 1 Sep 16, 2004 35 22 29 13 1 Aug 18, 2004 34 23 31 11 1 Jul 14, 2004 37 23 29 10 1 Jun 24, 2004 36 21 30 12 1 May 27, 2004 32 24 35 9 - Mar 18, 2004 35 24 30 9 1 Feb 18, 2004 41 22 28 9 - Dec 17, 2003 43 21 26 10 1 Oct 15, 2003 43 22 24 10 1 Aug 7, 2003 47 19 27 7 1 May 22, 2003 47 16 24 12 1 Apr 10, 2003 41 18 22 18 1 Feb 21, 2003 42 15 27 15 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Haven't Fav Unfav Mixed heard Ref Oct 22, 2004 18 12 17 53 1 Oct 12, 2004 15 8 17 58 2 Sep 28, 2004 18 8 14 58 1 Sep 16, 2004 15 7 12 65 1 Aug 18, 2004 13 9 11 66 2 Jul 14, 2004 12 7 14 66 1 Jun 24, 2004 10 7 9 73 1 May 27, 2004 13 7 11 68 1 Mar 18, 2004 10 6 14 70 1 Feb 18, 2004 12 3 9 76 1 Dec 17, 2003 13 4 11 72 1 Oct 15, 2003 11 4 10 74 - Aug 7, 2003 12 4 10 72 2
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Right Wrong DK/NA Oct 22, 2004 45 48 8 Oct 12, 2004 45 48 7 Sep 28, 2004 43 49 8 Sep 16, 2004 47 47 6 Aug 18, 2004 46 48 6 Jul 14, 2004 43 51 6 Jun 24, 2004 43 50 7 May 27, 2004 42 51 7 Apr 21, 2004 49 45 6 Mar 17, 2004 52 39 9
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1)As of today, do you lean more to Kerry or Bush? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely Voters Kerry 51% Bush 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 4
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 47% 10% 79% 49% 43% 51% 42% Bush 41 81 11 34 45 38 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 10 7 9 16 10 11 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Kerry 49% 66% 50% 54% 44% 41% 35% Bush 33 23 39 39 43 47 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 - 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 17 9 10 6 12 11 11 No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush Kerry 46% 50% 75% 52% 22% 84% 13% Bush 41 43 13 36 69 7 78 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - - DK/NA 12 7 11 11 7 9 9 Age in years............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Kerry 56% 43% 47% 43% Bush 36 46 43 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 DK/NA 6 10 11 16 Annual HsHold income......... <30 30-50 50-100 >100K Kerry 55% 44% 47% 41% Bush 29 47 47 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - DK/NA 14 8 5 8
2. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
Kerry Bush Vtr q1 Vtr q1 Made up 93% 93% Might change 5 7 DK/NA 1 -
3a. Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Kerry Vtr q1 For Kerry 46% Against Bush 47 DK/NA 7
3b. Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?
Bush Vtr q1 For Bush 77% Against Kerry 17 DK/NA 6
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q4)As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely Voters Kerry 50% Bush 44 Nader 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 4
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 47% 10% 80% 46% 43% 50% 44% Bush 41 81 12 33 44 39 45 Nader 5 3 2 10 6 3 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 6 10 7 8 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Kerry 51% 62% 48% 52% 44% 38% 37% Bush 35 23 37 38 46 48 52 Nader 2 6 8 4 4 6 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - 1 - DK/NA 12 9 8 6 6 7 7
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q5)As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely Voters Hoeffel 37% Specter 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 6
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Hoeffel 34% 7% 59% 31% 30% 37% 31% Specter 52 83 29 50 57 48 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 12 9 11 13 11 13 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Hoeffel 40% 46% 44% 38% 32% 30% 20% Specter 41 42 44 51 50 56 66 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 4 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 - - 2 2 DK/NA 16 10 9 11 14 11 11
6. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat, Arlen Specter the Republican, and Jim Clymer the Constitution Party candidate for whom would you vote? (If undecided q6)As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel, Specter or Clymer? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely Voters Hoeffel 36% Specter 51 Clymer 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 7
6. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat, Arlen Specter the Republican, and Jim Clymer the Constitution Party candidate for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Hoeffel 33% 6% 58% 29% 29% 36% 30% Specter 49 76 28 47 52 45 52 Clymer 5 8 1 10 7 4 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 13 9 13 12 11 14 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Hoeffel 40% 42% 43% 37% 32% 27% 20% Specter 35 39 40 49 48 53 61 Clymer 6 4 4 5 7 8 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 - - 1 1 DK/NA 18 15 10 9 13 10 13
7. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 39% 76% 12% 28% 42% 35% 42% Unfavorable 40 8 67 43 37 42 40 Mixed 20 15 20 27 19 20 16 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 -
8. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 37% 9% 64% 33% 33% 41% 32% Unfavorable 34 67 9 30 38 30 41 Mixed 25 20 23 34 25 25 25 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 -
9. Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 18% 6% 28% 18% 17% 18% 23% Unfavorable 12 22 4 13 13 11 14 Mixed 17 14 18 20 18 16 17 Hvn't hrd enough 53 58 49 47 53 53 45 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 1
10. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Favorable 35% 50% 26% 29% 36% 34% 43% Unfavorable 16 9 18 23 18 14 25 Mixed 34 33 38 31 34 35 24 Hvn't hrd enough 14 8 18 15 12 16 8 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 -
11. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president -- the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Iraq 20% 16% 24% 21% 21% 20% 27% Economy 30 20 36 34 33 28 22 Terrorism 25 42 10 26 27 23 27 Health care 19 14 26 12 14 23 19 DK/NA 6 7 5 7 6 7 5
12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 38% 73% 11% 32% 40% 36% 43% Kerry 53 17 83 56 51 54 48 DK/NA 10 10 7 12 9 10 9
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 40% 77% 11% 35% 44% 36% 47% Kerry 53 15 85 55 50 56 47 DK/NA 7 8 4 10 6 8 6
14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 49% 84% 20% 44% 54% 44% 51% Kerry 43 10 72 43 39 47 41 DK/NA 8 5 8 14 8 9 8
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Bush 53% 87% 25% 51% 59% 48% 59% Kerry 39 8 66 37 34 43 34 DK/NA 8 5 9 12 7 9 7
16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 44% 11% 71% 48% 40% 46% 40% Bush 50 86 21 46 55 46 54 DK/NA 6 3 8 5 5 8 6
17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Kerry 42% 11% 69% 44% 37% 47% 35% Bush 49 84 22 45 57 43 54 DK/NA 9 6 8 11 7 10 10
18. How important were the Presidential debates to you in deciding how to vote for president - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Very important 33% 21% 41% 33% 27% 38% 24% Somewhat 33 33 35 35 34 33 35 Not too 17 24 11 14 19 15 18 Not at all 16 21 13 17 21 13 24 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 -
19. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran Right thing 45% 77% 20% 39% 49% 41% 56% Wrong thing 48 17 72 54 44 51 41 DK/NA 8 6 8 7 6 9 2