Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * October 28, 2004 * Pennsylvania Race Swings Back - Quinnipiac University

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October 28, 2004 - Pennsylvania Race Swings Back To 2-Point Bush Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Specter Is At 55 Percent In Senate Race

President George W. Bush has come from behind and now has 49 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters, to 47 percent for Democratic challenger John Kerry, too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Four percent are undecided.
This compares to a 51 - 46 percent Kerry lead among likely voters in an October 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Among registered voters backing Bush, 78 percent say their vote is mainly for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 45 percent say their vote is pro-Kerry and 40 percent say they are voting mainly against Bush.
"Just when it looked like Sen. Kerry might be opening a lead in Pennsylvania, the momentum has swung back to President Bush and the race is a dead heat. It's always been a close race in Pennsylvania; since Labor Day no candidate has held a lead that exceeded the margin of error," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Bush has done a better job in the last week of firming up his base, Republicans and men, while taking away some women voters from Kerry. Women are the key in this race and they are torn between their concerns about terrorism - which means voting for Bush, and worries about the economy - which means voting for Kerry."
Given four choices, 29 percent list the economy as the most important issue in the campaign, followed by 25 percent who list terrorism, 22 percent who list the war in Iraq, and 18 percent for health care.
Looking at which candidate does best on key issues, Pennsylvania voters say:
50 - 43 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy; 56 - 36 percent that Bush would do better on terrorism; 52 - 40 percent that Bush would do better on the situation in Iraq; 51 - 40 percent that Kerry would do better on health care.
Voters say 48 - 45 percent that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do, reversing several months of polling showing more Pennsylvania voters thought the war was wrong. Senate Race
Incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter holds a 55 - 33 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, the Democratic challenger, among likely voters, with 7 percent for Constitution Party candidate Jim Clymer.
Pennsylvania registered voters give Sen. Specter a 42 - 16 percent favorability rating, with 28 percent mixed and 12 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
For Rep. Hoeffel, 54 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion, virtually unchanged in the last month of the campaign.
"Rep. Hoeffel has done little in the past week to close the gap with Sen. Specter who is still receiving a majority of the votes, even in a three way contest," Richards said.
From October 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,340 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 909 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, or Bush? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely voters ....................... Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Oct 28, 2004 47 49 - - 4 Oct 22, 2004 51 46 - - 4 Oct 12, 2004 49 47 - - 4 Sep 28, 2004 49 46 1 - 4 Sep 16, 2004 48 49 - - 2
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JK GWB Else Vote DK/NA Oct 28, 2004 45 44 - - 10 Oct 22, 2004 47 41 - 1 10 Oct 12, 2004 46 42 - 1 10 Sep 28, 2004 46 41 1 1 11 Sep 16, 2004 44 47 1 2 7 Aug 18, 2004 48 43 1 2 6 Jul 14, 2004 49 42 1 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 49 43 2 1 5 May 27, 2004 45 42 2 2 9 Apr 21, 2004 42 46 2 2 7 Mar 17, 2004 45 44 3 - 7 Feb 18, 2004 50 45 1 1 3
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JK GWB RN Else Vote DK/NA Oct 28, 2004 44 45 4 - - 8 Oct 22, 2004 47 41 5 - - 7 Oct 12, 2004 46 43 3 - 1 7 Sep 28, 2004 46 42 4 - - 8 Sep 16, 2004 42 46 6 1 1 5 Aug 18, 2004 47 42 4 - 1 6 Jul 14, 2004 46 41 5 - 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 44 43 7 1 1 4 May 27, 2004 44 41 6 - 2 7 Apr 21, 2004 39 45 8 1 1 7 Mar 17, 2004 40 44 7 1 - 8
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'.
Likely Voters........................ Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Oct 28, 2004 34 60 1 - 5 Oct 22, 2004 37 55 1 - 6 Oct 12, 2004 36 55 1 - 7 Sep 28, 2004 37 56 1 1 5 Sep 16, 2004 38 54 1 1 6
TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Smone Wldn't JH AS Else Vote DK/NA Oct 28, 2004 30 54 1 1 13 Oct 22, 2004 34 52 1 1 12 Oct 12, 2004 33 51 1 2 14 Sep 28, 2004 33 52 1 1 13 Sep 16, 2004 33 51 1 1 14 Aug 18, 2004 33 48 1 2 15 Jul 14, 2004 36 51 1 2 10 Jun 24, 2004 35 50 1 2 13 May 27, 2004 37 49 1 2 11 Mar 18, 2004 29 45 3 3 20 Dec 17, 2003 32 50 1 2 14 Oct 15, 2003 33 50 2 2 13 Aug 7, 2003 29 53 2 2 15
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Right Wrong DK/NA Oct 28, 2004 48 45 7 Oct 22, 2004 45 48 8 Oct 12, 2004 45 48 7 Sep 28, 2004 43 49 8 Sep 16, 2004 47 47 6 Aug 18, 2004 46 48 6 Jul 14, 2004 43 51 6 Jun 24, 2004 43 50 7 May 27, 2004 42 51 7 Apr 21, 2004 49 45 6 Mar 17, 2004 52 39 9
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1)As of today, do you lean more to Kerry or Bush? This table includes 'Leaners'
Likely Voters Kerry 47% Bush 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 4
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Kerry 45% 10% 80% 48% 43% 47% Bush 44 84 12 36 48 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 10 6 8 15 8 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Kerry 47% 79% 45% 43% 41% 43% 33% Bush 40 13 44 49 49 47 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - 1 1 DK/NA 13 9 11 9 10 10 10 No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush Kerry 44% 49% 75% 52% 19% 88% 10% Bush 44 45 16 37 70 7 80 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 12 6 9 10 11 6 9 Age in years............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Kerry 53% 39% 43% 48% Bush 39 50 48 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 9 10 8 12 Annual HsHold income......... <30 30-50 50-100 >100K Kerry 55% 45% 38% 47% Bush 34 42 56 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 10 13 7 6
3a. (If Kerry voter q1)Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Kerry Vtr q1 For Kerry 55% Against Bush 40 DK/NA 5
3b. (If Bush voter q2)Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?
Bush Vtr q1 For Bush 78% Against Kerry 17 DK/NA 5
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q4)As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'
Likely Voters Kerry 45% Bush 49 Nader 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 4
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Kerry 44% 9% 79% 42% 41% 46% Bush 45 84 12 39 48 42 Nader 4 2 2 9 4 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 8 4 6 11 6 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Kerry 43% 76% 44% 42% 37% 41% 32% Bush 41 14 45 49 50 48 56 Nader 4 4 3 3 7 4 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - 1 - DK/NA 12 6 8 6 6 6 8
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q5)As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel or Specter? This table includes 'Leaners'
Likely Voters Hoeffel 34% Specter 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE - DK/NA 5
5. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hoeffel 30% 10% 52% 28% 28% 32% Specter 54 81 32 51 58 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 13 7 15 19 12 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Hoeffel 36% 49% 27% 28% 30% 36% 20% Specter 46 27 59 61 54 49 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 4 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 - - 1 1 DK/NA 17 25 13 10 12 12 11
6. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat, Arlen Specter the Republican, and Jim Clymer the Constitution Party candidate for whom would you vote? (If undecided q6) As of today, do you lean more to Hoeffel, Specter, or Clymer? This table includes 'Leaners'
Likely Voters Hoeffel 33% Specter 55 Clymer 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE - DK/NA 5
6. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat, Arlen Specter the Republican, and Jim Clymer the Constitution Party candidate for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hoeffel 29% 9% 52% 24% 27% 31% Specter 52 75 34 48 55 50 Clymer 6 9 2 7 7 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 DK/NA 12 6 12 19 11 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Hoeffel 35% 51% 27% 26% 24% 34% 19% Specter 47 23 58 61 53 48 62 Clymer 4 2 5 5 10 8 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 13 25 10 7 11 10 12
7. Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 19% 9% 31% 17% 21% 18% Unfavorable 10 22 2 5 13 8 Mixed 14 12 12 19 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 54 55 53 56 52 57 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 3
8. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 42% 54% 34% 37% 46% 39% Unfavorable 16 12 23 11 16 15 Mixed 28 29 28 30 28 29 Hvn't hrd enough 12 5 14 19 9 15 REFUSED 2 - 1 3 1 2
9. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Iraq 22% 17% 25% 24% 20% 23% Economy 29 21 37 30 31 28 Terrorism 25 44 9 20 28 23 Health care 18 11 26 20 16 20 DK/NA 5 6 3 6 5 6
10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bush 40% 76% 9% 33% 43% 37% Kerry 51 15 83 56 49 53 DK/NA 9 8 8 11 8 10
11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bush 43% 81% 11% 32% 46% 40% Kerry 50 13 82 57 48 51 DK/NA 8 6 6 11 6 9
12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bush 52% 88% 21% 46% 55% 49% Kerry 40 9 71 42 39 41 DK/NA 8 3 8 12 5 10
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bush 56% 90% 24% 56% 60% 52% Kerry 36 7 66 35 35 38 DK/NA 8 3 10 10 5 10
14. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 48% 80% 20% 42% 52% 45% Wrong thing 45 14 73 51 44 46 DK/NA 7 6 7 7 4 9