Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * February 17, 2005 * Rendell Tops Possible Challeng - Quinnipiac University

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February 17, 2005 - Rendell Tops Possible Challengers In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back His $800 Million Environmental Plan

Pennsylvania voters give incumbent Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell mixed grades, including a 51 - 33 percent approval rating, but he has solid early leads over possible Republican challengers, including Bill Scranton and Lynn Swann, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today.
Gov. Rendell had a 52 - 30 percent approval rating in a September 16, 2004, poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Match-ups between Rendell and possible Republican challengers show:
Rendell over State Sen. Jeff Piccola 52 - 28 percent; The Governor tops former Lt. Gov. William Scranton III 50 - 35 percent; Rendell over former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann 50 - 34 percent.
"Gov. Rendell appears to be in good shape for re-election, but his numbers show some softness around the edges. His approval rating and the number of voters who want to see him re-elected hover around a majority - good, but not great. A lot depends on how much opponents beat up on him for last year's big tax increase," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
In other measures of attitudes about Rendell:
Voters say 48 - 38 percent that he deserves to be reelected: 26 percent say things are worse in Pennsylvania since Rendell was elected, with 16 percent who say things are better and 54 percent who say there's no change.
Pennsylvania voters give their Governor a 40 - 26 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent mixed and 10 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
His challengers all have an early identity problem: In each case, most voters don't know enough to form an opinion.
"The GOP side has a couple of well known names in the contest, but no candidate is generating great enthusiasm at this early stage. Lynn Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steelers great, seems to have a little more name recognition than Bill Scranton, who carries one of the most famous names in state politics," Richards said.
Pennsylvania voters support 84 - 13 percent raising the state's minimum wage from $5.15 per hour to $6.15. A more generous plan to raise the minimum wage to $7.15 per hour gets 60 - 35 percent support.
Voters also support 54 - 38 percent Rendell's proposal to raise $800 million for environmental cleanup and land preservation, by raising dumping fees charged to trash collectors.
When voters are asked if they support the plan even if some of the costs are passed on to them in the form of higher trash collection fees, they oppose it 48 - 41 percent.
From February 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,250 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
App Dis DK/NA Feb 17, 2005 51 33 16 Sep 16, 2004 52 30 17 Aug 18, 2004 50 32 18 Jul 13, 2004 54 30 15 Jun 24, 2004 51 31 18 May 27, 2004 49 31 19 Apr 22, 2004 46 33 22 Mar 18, 2004 46 35 19 Feb 19, 2004 48 36 16 Dec 16, 2003 46 34 19 Oct 16, 2003 50 28 22 Aug 6, 2003 51 29 21 May 23, 2003 49 27 24 Apr 10, 2003 51 19 30 Feb 20, 2003 54 12 33
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
App Dis DK/NA Feb 17, 2005 44 33 24 Sep 16, 2004 46 33 22 Aug 18, 2004 42 37 22 Jul 13, 2004 45 37 18 Jun 24, 2004 43 38 20 May 27, 2004 40 39 21 Apr 22, 2004 37 38 25 Mar 18, 2004 40 40 20 Feb 19, 2004 40 39 21 Dec 16, 2003 38 44 18 Oct 16, 2003 43 37 19 Aug 6, 2003 41 39 20 May 23, 2003 45 33 22 Apr 10, 2003 49 24 27
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Very Smwht Smwht Very sat sat dis dis DK/NA Feb 17, 2005 4 52 28 15 1 Jul 13, 2004 5 51 29 14 1 Jun 24, 2004 4 52 33 11 1 May 27, 2004 4 52 31 11 2 Apr 22, 2004 5 56 26 11 1 Mar 18, 2004 4 46 33 15 2 Feb 19, 2004 4 45 33 17 1 Dec 16, 2003 4 50 28 17 1 Oct 16, 2003 5 51 30 13 1 Aug 6, 2003 4 53 30 12 1 May 23, 2003 5 53 28 13 2 Apr 10, 2003 7 59 25 8 2 Feb 20, 2003 7 56 25 9 2 Jun 5, 2002 8 60 22 8 3
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 51% 34% 67% 53% 53% 49% Disapprove 33 49 20 27 35 32 DK/NA 16 17 13 20 13 19
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling it's job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 48% 43% 40% 41% 46% Disapprove 33 29 35 33 37 29 DK/NA 24 24 22 26 22 25
6. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 24% 57% 41% 42% 39% Unfavorable 26 41 14 20 28 24 Mixed 23 23 21 26 22 25 Hvn't hrd enough 10 11 7 12 8 11 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
7. Is your opinion of State Senator Jeff Piccola favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 4% 4% 4% 2% 3% 5% Unfavorable 2 2 3 2 2 2 Mixed 4 4 4 6 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 89 89 88 90 90 88 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1
8. Is your opinion of former Lieutenant Governor Bill Scranton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 21% 21% 20% 23% 23% 19% Unfavorable 4 3 2 6 5 3 Mixed 14 11 14 18 12 15 Hvn't hrd enough 60 62 62 52 58 62 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 1
9. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 30% 32% 27% 30% 35% 26% Unfavorable 5 3 7 3 6 4 Mixed 6 5 8 7 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 57 58 56 57 50 62 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 3 2
10. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Jeff Piccola the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 52% 25% 80% 54% 51% 53% Piccola 28 51 9 20 30 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 17 20 9 22 15 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 47% 79% 47% 69% 37% 43% 41% Piccola 31 10 28 13 34 33 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 18 10 21 15 26 21 16
11. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Bill Scranton the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 50% 23% 79% 51% 47% 53% Scranton 35 62 12 29 38 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 12 11 6 18 11 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 43% 83% 41% 68% 41% 43% 37% Scranton 39 12 39 22 47 38 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 14 5 18 7 10 17 13
12. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 50% 23% 79% 49% 49% 52% Swann 34 58 12 28 37 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 2 DK/NA 13 15 5 20 10 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 37% 84% 43% 65% 40% 40% 41% Swann 47 8 33 19 49 47 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 1 2 2 3 DK/NA 11 5 21 14 10 11 14
13. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves reelection 48% 29% 70% 49% 48% 48% Does not 38 57 18 36 39 36 DK/NA 14 14 12 15 13 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Deserves reelection 36% 74% 44% 70% 40% 34% 37% Does not 42 17 44 21 44 51 47 DK/NA 23 9 11 10 16 16 16
27. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 4% 4% 3% 6% 5% 4% Smwht satisfied 52 56 49 49 51 52 Smwht dissatisfied 28 29 27 28 29 27 Very dissatisfied 15 10 20 15 13 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 2 1
28. What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Economy Total 29 26 31 30 29 29 Economy general 2 2 3 4 2 3 Unemployment/jobs 24 23 25 23 25 24 Minimum wage too low 1 - 1 - - 1 Businesses leaving 2 1 2 3 2 1 Taxes Total 15 22 9 13 19 11 Taxes general 9 14 6 6 10 8 Property tax 6 8 3 7 9 3 Education Total 8 7 10 9 9 8 Education general 5 5 6 4 5 5 Funding education 3 2 4 5 4 3 Healthcare Total 7 5 10 6 4 10 Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 4 4 6 4 2 7 Medical malpractice 1 1 1 - 1 1 Medicare 1 - 2 2 1 1 Prescription costs 1 - 1 - - 1 Transportation Total 4 4 6 4 5 4 Lack of quality mass trans/Public trans 2 1 3 1 2 2 Poor condition of roads/highways 1 1 2 1 1 1 Transportation other 1 2 1 2 2 1 Politicians Total 4 3 4 2 4 2 Politicians/ Campaigns general 2 2 2 - 2 1 Political corruption 1 - 1 2 1 - Governor/State leaders 1 1 1 - 1 1 Budget Total 3 1 3 2 3 3 Budget general 1 1 1 1 1 1 Budget cuts/Cuts in services 1 - 1 1 1 1 Government too big/Gov spending 1 - 1 - 1 1 Crime Total 2 1 2 2 2 2 Crime/Violence general 1 - 2 1 1 1 Drugs 1 1 - 1 1 1 Casinos/Gambling 2 3 - 2 2 2 Environment/Pollution 1 - 2 2 1 1 Lack of ethics/Morality 1 1 - 1 - 1 Senior issues 1 - 1 1 1 1 Social security 1 1 1 - 1 1 Urban sprawl/ Overdevelopment 1 1 - 1 1 - Welfare 1 2 1 2 - 2 Poverty/Homeless 1 - 2 1 - 1 Other 6 6 5 8 6 6 DK/NA 9 8 10 6 7 10
29. Would you say Ed Rendell is doing a better job as governor than you expected, a worse job, or about what you expected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better than expected 13% 10% 14% 14% 13% 12% Worse than expected 14 19 10 12 14 14 About as expected 68 65 72 68 68 68 DK/NA 6 5 4 6 4 7
30. Since Ed Rendell became Governor, do you think things in Pennsylvania have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gotten Better 16% 11% 23% 12% 17% 15% Gotten Worse 25 36 16 22 28 23 Stayed the same 54 50 56 60 52 56 DK/NA 5 3 5 6 3 6
31. Would you support or oppose raising the state's current minimum wage, which is now five dollars and fifteen cents an hour, to six dollars and fifteen cents an hour?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 84% 73% 93% 87% 78% 88% Oppose 13 23 6 10 19 9 DK/NA 3 4 1 3 4 2
32. Would you support or oppose raising the state's current minimum wage, which is now five dollars and fifteen cents an hour, to seven dollars and fifteen cents an hour?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 60% 45% 77% 58% 55% 65% Oppose 35 50 21 38 41 31 DK/NA 5 6 2 4 5 4
33. Governor Rendell has proposed borrowing $800 million for environmental cleanup and land preservation. It would be paid for by increasing the fees trash collectors pay to dump garbage in Pennsylvania. Do you support or oppose this plan?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 54% 45% 63% 58% 54% 55% Oppose 38 48 28 34 40 36 DK/NA 8 8 9 7 6 10
34. (IF 'support' q33) Would you still support the $800 million for environmental cleanup and land preservation if the garbage collectors passed some of the cost along to you in the form of higher bills to collect your garbage?
IF SUPPORT LAND PRESERVATION LOAN Q34...... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 76% 80% 75% 80% 79% 74% No 19 16 20 17 17 21 DK/NA 4 4 5 3 4 5
33x. (Combined table q33 & q34) Governor Rendell has proposed borrowing $800 million for environmental cleanup and land preservation. It would be paid for by increasing the fees trash collectors pay to dump garbage in Pennsylvania. Do you support or oppose this plan? IF SUPPORT: Would you still support the $800 million for environmental cleanup and land preservation if the garbage collectors passed some of the cost along to you in the form of higher bills to collect your garbage?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support and will pay 41% 36% 47% 47% 43% 40% Would not support if have to pay 10 7 13 10 9 12 Oppose Q33 38 48 28 34 40 36 DK/NA Q33 8 8 9 7 6 10 DK/NA Q34 2 2 3 2 2 2