Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * April 20, 2005 * Casey Widens Lead In Pennsylva - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> Pennsylvania (PA)> Release Detail

April 20, 2005 - Casey Widens Lead In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Schiavo, Social Security Take Toll On Santorum

State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr., has a 49 - 35 percent lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today.
This compares to a 46 - 41 percent Casey lead in a February 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Pennsylvania voters give Sen. Santorum a 48 - 35 percent approval rating, down from 52 - 31 percent Feb. 16 and comparable to his all-time low of 47 - 30 percent.
Voters reject 55 - 37 percent President George W. Bush's plan to privatize Social Security and 38 percent say they are less likely to vote for Santorum because of his support for Bush's proposal. Another 15 percent say they are more likely to vote for Santorum and 43 percent say his Social Security position does not make a difference.
Only 14 percent of Pennsylvania voters are more likely to vote for Santorum because of his highly visible role in the Terri Schiavo case, with 34 percent who say they are less likely and 47 percent who say it does not make a difference.
"The numbers show clearly that Sen. Santorum has lost ground in his re-election bid over the last two months. The Senator has come under strong criticism for his outspoken involvement in the Schiavo case and his campaigning for President Bush's unpopular Social Security proposal," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Santorum also has been targeted in press reports for his strong conservative stands, and for appearing to moderate those stands in an election year. In short, Santorum has become a more controversial public figure in the past two months and Bob Casey, without doing much of anything to attract headlines, is the beneficiary," Richards added.
"But this campaign, which has miles to go and millions to spend, is still in early previews."
Casey's biggest gain is among Democrats who went from 74 - 17 percent for the challenger in the February 16 poll to 77 - 10 percent today. He also has gained among men and women voters and slightly among independent voters, who now back him 52 - 28 percent.
Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a 36 - 25 percent favorability with 20 percent mixed and 19 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.
Voters say 44 - 37 percent that Santorum deserves to be reelected, down from 53 - 30 percent February 16. He is too conservative, 25 percent of voters say, with 8 percent who say he is too liberal and 44 percent who say he is "about right."
Casey gets a 40 - 6 percent favorability, with 15 percent mixed and 38 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.
While both Santorum and Casey are pro-life in the abortion debate, 39 percent of Pennsylvania voters say they would be "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to vote for a pro-choice candidate instead.
Voters disapprove 53 - 43 percent of the job President Bush is doing, compared to his all-time low of 55 - 41 percent disapproval May 27, 2004.
Senior Sen. Arlen Specter gets a 53 - 33 percent approval.
From April 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,395 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA Apr 20, 2005 53 33 13 Feb 16, 2005 55 34 11 Sep 16, 2004 52 37 12 Aug 18, 2004 50 36 15 Jul 14, 2004 51 35 14 Jun 24, 2004 51 38 10 May 27, 2004 48 41 11 Apr 22, 2004 47 36 17 Mar 18, 2004 49 36 15 Feb 18, 2004 53 32 15 Dec 17, 2003 57 31 12 Oct 15, 2003 54 31 16 Aug 7, 2003 57 27 16 May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sep 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA Apr 20, 2005 48 35 18 Feb 16, 2005 52 31 17 Sep 16, 2004 54 30 16 Aug 18, 2004 52 30 18 Jul 14, 2004 53 28 19 Jun 24, 2004 52 29 18 May 27, 2004 53 28 19 Apr 22, 2004 47 30 22 Mar 18, 2004 51 28 21 Feb 18, 2004 53 27 20 Dec 17, 2003 56 29 15 Oct 15, 2003 54 28 18 Aug 7, 2003 56 28 17 May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sep 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
App Dis DK/NA Apr 20, 2005 43 53 4 Feb 16, 2005 45 51 3 Sep 16, 2004 48 48 3 Aug 18, 2004 45 52 3 Jul 14, 2004 45 52 3 Jun 24, 2004 45 53 2 May 27, 2004 41 55 5 Apr 21, 2004 47 49 4 Mar 17, 2004 48 48 4 Feb 18, 2004 47 49 3 Dec 17, 2003 53 43 4 Oct 15, 2003 51 44 6 Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sept. 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Havn't Fav Unfav Mixed Heard REF Apr 20, 2005 36 25 20 19 1 Feb 16, 2005 41 24 17 16 1 Oct 15, 2003 44 24 18 14 - Aug 7, 2003 45 22 22 10 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Havn't Fav Unfav Mixed Heard REF Apr 20, 2005 40 6 15 38 1 Feb 16, 2005 41 8 18 31 1
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
SMONE WLDN'T BC RS ELSE VOTE DK/NA Apr 20, 2005 49 35 1 1 13 Feb 16, 2005 46 41 1 1 11
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Des- Doesn't erves Deserve DK/NA Apr 20, 2005 44 37 19 Feb 16, 2005 53 30 17
TREND: Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too Too About Lib Con Right DK/NA Apr 20, 2005 8 25 44 24 Feb 16, 2005 7 25 44 25
TREND: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
Legal Legal Illegal Illegal All Most Most All DK/NA Apr 20, 2005 16 33 26 18 7 Mar 18, 2003 23 32 24 17 4 Jun 5, 2002 21 32 24 15 8
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 53% 55% 52% 52% 54% 52% Disapprove 33 31 37 33 36 32 DK/NA 13 14 11 15 10 16
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 48% 70% 34% 40% 51% 45% Disapprove 35 16 49 40 36 34 DK/NA 18 14 17 20 13 21
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 43% 78% 15% 37% 47% 39% Disapprove 53 18 80 60 49 57 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 3 4
14. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 36% 61% 20% 29% 40% 32% Unfavorable 25 9 37 28 27 23 Mixed 20 15 20 26 18 21 Hvn't hrd enough 19 15 23 16 15 23 REFUSED 1 - - 2 - 1
15. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 34% 46% 40% 38% 41% Unfavorable 6 8 5 5 7 5 Mixed 15 18 14 12 13 17 Hvn't hrd enough 38 39 34 42 40 37 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
16. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 49% 18% 77% 52% 46% 52% Santorum 35 69 10 28 41 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 13 12 10 16 10 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Casey 58% 62% 49% 47% 51% 50% 40% Santorum 25 20 35 38 30 39 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 4 1 - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 4 - 3 1 1 DK/NA 16 13 11 15 15 9 11
17. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves reelection 44% 72% 26% 38% 49% 41% Does not 37 15 51 44 38 36 DK/NA 19 13 23 18 14 23 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Deserves reelection 36% 35% 45% 41% 47% 41% 55% Does not 57 36 33 38 33 38 28 DK/NA 8 29 22 20 20 21 16
18. Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too liberal 8% 6% 10% 6% 8% 7% Too conservative 25 12 32 33 29 22 About right 44 63 30 39 46 42 DK/NA 24 18 27 22 18 29
19. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Legal all 16% 10% 23% 12% 14% 18% Legal most 33 21 38 44 35 31 Illegal most 26 33 18 27 28 24 Illegal all 18 29 14 10 16 20 DK/NA 7 7 7 7 8 6
20. On the issue of abortion, do you happen to know whether Bob Casey Jr. is pro-life or pro-choice?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom pro-life 17% 16% 18% 20% 18% 17% pro-choice 9 9 10 6 11 7 DK/NA 74 75 72 74 71 77
21. On the issue of abortion, do you happen to know whether Rick Santorum is pro-life or pro-choice?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom pro-life 39% 46% 32% 39% 44% 34% pro-choice 5 6 5 4 6 4 DK/NA 56 48 63 57 50 62
22. (If Casey or Santorum q16) As you may know both Rick Santorum and Bob Casey Jr. are pro-life on the issue of abortion. If there were an independent candidate on the ballot who was pro-choice on the issue of abortion, how likely would you be to vote for that pro-choice candidate instead of (Casey/Santorum) -- very likely, somewhatlikely, not very likely or not likely at all?
IF SELECTED CASEY OR SANTORUM ON Q16....... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very likely 14% 8% 19% 13% 10% 17% Smwht likely 25 17 29 31 21 29 Not very likely 16 18 12 17 18 14 Not likely at all 36 49 31 26 41 32 DK/NA 9 7 8 13 11 8 CANDIDATE CHOICE ON Q16 BC RS Very likely 18% 8% Smwht likely 28 20 Not very likely 14 18 Not likely at all 29 46 DK/NA 10 8
23. President Bush favors changing the Social Security system to allow people to invest some of their Social Security taxes in stocks and bonds. Do you support or oppose this proposed change to Social Security?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 37% 61% 19% 31% 46% 30% Oppose 55 28 77 59 49 61 DK/NA 8 11 4 10 6 9
24. As you may know, Senator Rick Santorum favors changing the Social Security system to allow people to invest some of their Social Security taxes in stocks and bonds. Does this make you more likely to vote for Santorum, less likely to vote for Santorum, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 15% 32% 5% 11% 21% 11% Less likely 38 17 53 41 33 41 No difference 43 48 39 43 43 44 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 3 4
25. As you may know, Senator Rick Santorum was one of the leaders urging Congress to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case. Does Santorum's role in the Schiavo case make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or doesn't it affect your vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 14% 24% 9% 11% 15% 14% Less likely 34 19 43 41 32 35 No affect 47 53 43 45 50 45 DK/NA 4 4 5 3 3 6