Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * April 21, 2005 * Pennsylvania GOP Gives Edge To - Quinnipiac University

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April 21, 2005 - Pennsylvania GOP Gives Edge To Lynn Swann, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Rendell Still Beats All Comers

Former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann is the choice of 25 percent of Pennsylvania Republican voters as the best challenger to face Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell next year, followed by former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton with 21 percent and State Sen. Jeff Piccola with 6 percent, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. But 47 percent of Republicans are undecided.
Gov. Rendell has a 49 - 34 percent approval rating, compared to 51 - 33 percent in a February 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Rendell also has a strong early lead over possible Republican challengers:
48 - 35 percent over Swann; 49 - 34 percent over Scranton; 54 - 27 percent over Piccola.
"Former Steeler great Lynn Swann may hold a narrow edge over former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton, Jr., in the race for the GOP nod for governor next year, but at this early stage, undecided is the real leader. Gov. Rendell continues to hold a double-digit lead over any would-be GOP challenger and has to be considered a strong candidate for re- election even if his job approval rating has slipped below the magic 50 percent mark," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Pennsylvania voters give Rendell a 37 - 25 percent favorability rating, with 24 percent mixed and 14 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Most voters don't know enough about any of his challengers to form an opinion.
Rendell deserves to be reelected, Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 38 percent.
From April 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,395 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 579 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
App Dis DK/NA Apr 21, 2005 49 34 18 Feb 17, 2005 51 33 16 Sep 16, 2004 52 30 17 Aug 18, 2004 50 32 18 Jul 13, 2004 54 30 15 Jun 24, 2004 51 31 18 May 27, 2004 49 31 19 Apr 22, 2004 46 33 22 Mar 18, 2004 46 35 19 Feb 19,2004 48 36 16 Dec 16, 2003 46 34 19 Oct 16, 2003 50 28 22 Aug 6, 2003 51 29 21 May 23, 2003 49 27 24 Apr 10, 2003 51 19 30 Feb 20, 2003 54 12 33
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
App Dis DK/NA Apr 21, 2005 40 39 21 Feb 17, 2005 44 33 24 Sep 16, 2004 46 33 22 Aug 18, 2004 42 37 22 Jul 13, 2004 45 37 18 Jun 24, 2004 43 38 20 May 27, 2004 40 39 21 Apr 22, 2004 37 38 25 Mar 18, 2004 40 40 20 Feb 19,2004 40 39 21 Dec 16, 2003 38 44 18 Oct 16, 2003 43 37 19 Aug 6, 2003 41 39 20 May 23, 2003 45 33 22 Apr 10, 2003 49 24 27
TREND: Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Havn't Fav Unfav Mixed Heard REFUSED Apr 21, 2005 37 25 24 14 1 Feb 17, 2005 40 26 23 10 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Senator Jeff Piccola favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Havn't Fav Unfav Mixed Heard REF Apr 21, 2005 5 2 6 85 1 Feb 17, 2005 4 2 4 89 1
TREND: Is your opinion of former Lieutenant Governor Bill Scranton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Havn't Fav Unfav Mixed Heard REF Apr 21, 2005 22 5 14 58 1 Feb 17, 2005 21 4 14 60 2
TREND: Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Havn't Fav Unfav Mixed Heard REF Apr 21, 2005 25 6 9 58 2 Feb 17, 2005 30 5 6 57 2
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Jeff Piccola the Republican, for whom would you vote?
SMONE WLDN'T ER JP ELSE VOTE DK/NA Apr 21, 2005 54 27 1 2 17 Feb 17, 2005 52 28 1 2 17
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Bill Scranton the Republican, for whom would you vote?
SMONE WLDN'T ER BS ELSE VOTE DK/NA Apr 21, 2005 49 34 1 1 14 Feb 17, 2005 50 35 1 2 12
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
SMONE WLDN'T ER LS ELSE VOTE DK/NA Apr 21, 2005 48 35 1 2 14 Feb 17, 2005 50 34 1 2 13
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Des- Doesn't erves Deserve DK/NA Apr 21, 2005 48 38 14 Feb 17, 2005 48 38 14
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Very Smwht Smwht Very sat sat dis dis DK/NA Apr 21, 2005 4 49 30 15 1 Feb 17, 2005 4 52 28 15 1 Jul 13, 2004 5 51 29 14 1 Jun 24, 2004 4 52 33 11 1 May 27, 2004 4 52 31 11 2 Apr 22, 2004 5 56 26 11 1 Mar 18, 2004 4 46 33 15 2 Feb 19,2004 4 45 33 17 1 Dec 16, 2003 4 50 28 17 1 Oct 16, 2003 5 51 30 13 1 Aug 6, 2003 4 53 30 12 1 May 23, 2003 5 53 28 13 2 Apr 10, 2003 7 59 25 8 2 Feb 20, 2003 7 56 25 9 2 Jun 5, 2002 8 60 22 8 3
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 49% 35% 63% 48% 50% 48% Disapprove 34 49 23 33 35 32 DK/NA 18 16 14 20 15 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Approve 36% 74% 49% 64% 34% 36% 42% Disapprove 44 14 32 21 37 47 41 DK/NA 20 12 19 14 29 17 17
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 40% 42% 39% 39% 41% 40% Disapprove 39 37 39 43 42 36 DK/NA 21 21 21 18 17 24
6. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 21% 53% 34% 39% 35% Unfavorable 25 39 14 23 28 21 Mixed 24 25 20 29 22 26 Hvn't hrd enough 14 13 13 13 9 17 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
7. Is your opinion of State Senator Jeff Piccola favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 6% 6% 4% 7% 4% Unfavorable 2 4 2 2 3 2 Mixed 6 5 7 6 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 85 85 85 86 83 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1
8. Is your opinion of former Lieutenant Governor Bill Scranton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 22% 19% 24% 22% 21% 22% Unfavorable 5 5 6 5 6 5 Mixed 14 12 15 16 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 58 62 55 56 56 59 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
9. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 25% 32% 21% 23% 30% 21% Unfavorable 6 2 9 5 6 5 Mixed 9 7 10 10 9 9 Hvn't hrd enough 58 56 58 60 52 64 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 2 2
10. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Jeff Piccola the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 54% 25% 79% 55% 52% 55% Piccola 27 55 8 18 29 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 17 18 11 21 15 18 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Rendell 51% 80% 44% 73% 46% 42% 42% Piccola 25 12 36 16 24 33 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 3 - 3 4 1 DK/NA 22 6 15 11 24 18 21
11. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Bill Scranton the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 49% 19% 75% 50% 47% 51% Scranton 34 64 14 28 38 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 14 15 9 18 13 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Rendell 38% 78% 40% 68% 42% 39% 38% Scranton 39 17 41 21 37 40 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 2 - 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 3 - 3 4 1 DK/NA 24 5 14 11 18 17 15
12. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 48% 22% 74% 47% 46% 51% Swann 35 63 14 30 40 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 4 1 2 DK/NA 14 14 10 18 12 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Rendell 39% 76% 42% 68% 34% 31% 41% Swann 39 16 36 23 42 50 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 5 - 3 4 1 DK/NA 19 8 17 9 19 15 16
13. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves reelection 48% 28% 67% 45% 47% 48% Does not 38 59 22 38 41 36 DK/NA 14 13 12 17 12 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Deserves reelection 35% 73% 39% 69% 35% 33% 41% Does not 51 17 40 20 40 55 47 DK/NA 13 10 21 11 25 12 13
26. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 4% 5% 4% 2% 3% 5% Smwht satisfied 49 50 48 50 51 47 Smwht dissatisfied 30 30 28 32 28 32 Very dissatisfied 15 13 18 15 16 15 DK/NA 1 2 2 1 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Very satisfied 1% 5% 4% 6% 5% 1% 6% Smwht satisfied 42 55 48 58 41 46 47 Smwht dissatisfied 25 28 33 26 36 31 32 Very dissatisfied 31 11 14 9 17 21 14 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 1 1 1
27. (If registered Republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jeff Piccola, Bill Scranton, and Lynn Swann for whom would you vote?
REG REP Piccola 6% Scranton 21 Swann 25 DK/NA 47