Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * October 5, 2005 * Rendell Approval Slips, But Ch - Quinnipiac University

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October 5, 2005 - Rendell Approval Slips, But Challengers Don't Gain, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Voters Say Lawmakers Should Repeal Their Pay Raise

Pennsylvania voters give Gov. Ed. Rendell a 46 - 38 percent approval rating, one of his lowest marks ever, but he still holds double-digit leads over any likely Republican challenger in his bid for reelection next year, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The Governor started the year with a 51 - 33 percent approval in a February 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University, and has dropped slightly in every poll since.
The Governor deserves to be reelected, voters say 48 - 41 percent, consistent with other poll findings this year. He still leads several possible Republican challengers:
47 - 34 percent over former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton; 47 - 34 percent over former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann; 52 - 26 percent over State Sen. Jeff Piccola; 53 - 23 percent over Jim Panyard, former head of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers' Association.
"For a governor who signed the despised legislative pay raise and saw his plan to use gambling money to lower property taxes go down in flames, Ed Rendell ought to be called 'Teflon Ed,'" said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"While the legislature's approval rating has sunk into the basement, the governor's hovers in the mid-40's - respectable under the circumstances. More importantly, he still holds double-digit leads over all GOP challengers."
"Meanwhile, the Republicans face the prospect of a bruising battle over picking a candidate to oppose Rendell, with Lynn Swan and Bill Scranton neck and neck in a race where undecided is still in the lead."
In a Republican primary for Governor, Swann gets 26 percent, with 23 percent for Scranton, a tie, 5 percent for Piccola, 2 percent for Panyard, with 39 percent undecided.
Legislative Pay Raise
State lawmakers should repeal the pay raise they voted themselves, 61 percent of Pennsylvania voters say in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 22 percent say the pay hike should be scaled down, with 11 percent who say leave it as is.
But 67 percent of voters don't know how their local state legislator voted on the pay hike and voters say 57 - 37 percent that they would not vote against their local lawmaker just because of his/her vote on the pay raise.
The pay hike is excessive, 74 percent of voters say in poll, while 18 percent say it is just about right and 5 percent say it isn't enough. Attitudes are consistent among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters.
"While voters think the legislative pay raise is excessive and want it repealed, it does not appear that lawmakers will suffer greatly at the polls for making themselves the second best paid legislature in the country. First of all, two thirds of the voters don't know how their individual legislator voted on the pay raise and secondly, 57 percent say they wouldn't vote against him or her just because of the pay raise vote," Richards said.
From September 27 - October 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,530 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 663 Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 33% 59% 43% 45% 46% Disapprove 38 53 26 37 42 35 DK/NA 16 14 15 20 13 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 34% 72% 39% 64% 30% 29% 41% Disapprove 45 20 37 25 47 58 41 DK/NA 20 9 23 11 24 13 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (* Also hit 54% on 2/20/2003) (** Also hit 46% on 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 Sep 16 Jul 13 Oct 5 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004* 2005** Approve 46 47 49 51 52 54 46 Disapprove 38 39 34 33 30 30 38 DK/NA 16 14 18 16 17 15 16
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 26% 29% 27% 22% 25% 28% Disapprove 60 58 58 66 64 57 DK/NA 14 13 15 12 11 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 14% 29% 28% 32% 27% 19% 29% Disapprove 74 53 56 52 55 76 60 DK/NA 12 18 17 16 18 5 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 Sep 16 Apr 10 Oct 5 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2003 2005 Approve 26 37 40 44 46 49 26 Disapprove 60 47 39 33 33 24 60 DK/NA 14 16 21 24 22 27 14
6. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 27% 51% 36% 42% 36% Unfavorable 29 45 16 28 32 26 Mixed 22 19 22 25 19 24 Hvn't hrd enough 11 10 12 10 6 14 REFUSED - - - - - -
TREND: Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 39 37 37 40 Unfavorable 29 29 25 26 Mixed 22 22 24 23 Haven't heard enough 11 11 14 10 REFUSED - 1 1 1
7. Is your opinion of State Senator Jeff Piccola favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 4% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4% Unfavorable 4 2 4 4 5 2 Mixed 8 7 9 6 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 83 85 81 85 81 85 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Senator Jeff Piccola favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 4 5 5 4 Unfavorable 4 3 2 2 Mixed 8 5 6 4 Haven't heard enough 83 87 85 89 REFUSED 1 1 1 1
8. Is your opinion of former Lieutenant Governor Bill Scranton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 20% 23% 18% 17% 20% 19% Unfavorable 6 5 6 8 9 4 Mixed 15 14 14 15 13 16 Hvn't hrd enough 59 57 60 59 57 60 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of former Lieutenant Governor Bill Scranton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 20 19 22 21 Unfavorable 6 5 5 4 Mixed 15 14 14 14 Haven't heard enough 59 60 58 60 REFUSED 1 2 1 2
9. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 26% 34% 23% 20% 35% 18% Unfavorable 7 4 10 7 10 5 Mixed 9 8 10 9 10 8 Hvn't hrd enough 56 53 56 61 44 67 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 26 26 25 30 Unfavorable 7 7 6 5 Mixed 9 7 9 6 Haven't heard enough 56 59 58 57 REFUSED 2 1 2 2
10. Is your opinion of former president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers' Association Jim Panyard favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 2% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% Unfavorable 3 1 4 4 4 2 Mixed 3 3 3 2 2 3 Hvn't hrd enough 92 93 90 93 90 93 REFUSED 1 - - - - 1
11. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Jeff Piccola the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 52% 22% 77% 53% 51% 52% Piccola 26 54 8 20 27 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 3 2 DK/NA 18 20 12 21 17 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 50% 73% 51% 69% 37% 38% 41% Piccola 20 14 22 16 33 38 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 4 2 3 4 3 DK/NA 25 10 22 12 26 17 19
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Jeff Piccola the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2005 2005 2005 2005 Ed Rendell 52 51 54 52 Jeff Piccola 26 28 27 28 SMONE ELSE 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 18 16 17 17
12. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Bill Scranton the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 47% 21% 72% 48% 48% 47% Scranton 34 64 14 29 36 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 15 14 11 18 12 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 43% 74% 43% 64% 36% 36% 37% Scranton 31 13 41 21 44 44 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 1 1 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 DK/NA 20 10 13 13 17 16 15
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Bill Scranton the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2005 2005 2005 2005 Ed Rendell 47 47 49 50 Bill Scranton 34 37 34 35 SMONE ELSE 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 15 13 14 12
13. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 47% 21% 70% 50% 48% 47% Swann 34 60 18 28 38 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 15 16 10 16 11 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 38% 72% 46% 66% 34% 33% 39% Swann 40 15 34 18 46 54 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 3 2 2 DK/NA 18 9 16 13 17 9 18
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2005 2005 2005 2005 Ed Rendell 47 48 48 50 Lynn Swann 34 36 35 34 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 15 13 14 13
14. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Jim Panyard the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 53% 26% 77% 54% 53% 52% Panyard 23 47 7 18 24 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 3 2 DK/NA 19 22 13 21 17 21 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 51% 76% 49% 68% 38% 43% 43% Panyard 19 11 22 16 27 32 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 3 - 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 2 4 3 3 DK/NA 23 9 23 14 29 19 21
15. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 28% 66% 48% 48% 48% No/Does not 41 62 25 39 45 38 DK/NA 11 10 9 13 7 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 41% 74% 43% 66% 35% 26% 42% No/Does not 47 20 42 24 52 61 48 DK/NA 13 6 15 10 13 13 10
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2005 2005 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 48 46 48 48 Does not deserve 41 41 38 38 DK/NA 11 14 14 14
21. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% Smwht satisfied 42 39 49 37 43 42 Smwht dissatisfied 33 37 30 34 32 34 Very dissatisfied 20 21 15 24 20 19 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied - 6% 9% 5% 3% - 6% Smwht satisfied 34 51 39 53 38 30 42 Smwht dissatisfied 36 27 28 33 37 40 33 Very dissatisfied 29 17 24 9 20 28 19 DK/NA - - 1 - 1 1 -
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 Jul 13 Jun 24 May 27 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 2004 Very satisfied 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 Smwht satisfied 42 48 49 52 51 52 52 Smwht dissatisfied 33 32 30 28 29 33 31 Very dissatisifed 20 15 15 15 14 11 11 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
22. What should the legislature do now about the pay raise it voted itself in July? Repeal it, Scale it down, or Leave the raise as is?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Repeal 61% 63% 57% 65% 64% 59% Scale down 22 22 23 21 22 21 Leave as is 11 9 16 8 10 13 DK/NA 6 6 4 5 4 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Repeal 66% 48% 63% 51% 72% 72% 62% Scale down 23 19 18 29 17 19 22 Leave as is 6 25 12 14 7 5 10 DK/NA 6 9 7 6 5 3 5
23. Members of the Pennsylvania legislature make about $81,000 with the pay raise, more than any state except California. Considering the importance of the work they do, would you say Pennsylvania ranking second in pay in the nation is excessive, just about right, or not enough?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excessive 74% 75% 72% 77% 77% 71% Just about right 18 19 20 14 17 20 Not enough 5 3 5 6 4 6 DK/NA 3 3 2 2 3 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Excessive 84% 49% 76% 74% 76% 89% 73% Just about right 10 30 21 20 14 8 21 Not enough 5 15 3 4 6 2 3 DK/NA 1 7 - 3 4 - 3
24. Do you happen to know whether your state representative and state senator voted for the pay raise, voted against the pay raise, or don't you happen to know?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted for 20% 22% 20% 20% 26% 16% Voted against 10 11 7 11 10 9 Don't know 67 63 71 66 61 72 SPLIT VOTES(VOL) 2 3 2 2 3 2 REFUSED - 1 - - - 1
25. If your state senator or state representative voted for the pay raise, would you vote against him or her solely on the pay raise vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 37% 32% 35% 46% 39% 35% No 57 62 58 51 56 58 DK/NA 6 6 7 3 5 7
27. (If registered Republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jeff Piccola, Bill Scranton, Lynn Swann and Jim Panyard for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Piccola 5% 6% 4% Scranton 23 25 21 Swann 26 31 21 Panyard 2 2 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 39 31 48
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jeff Piccola, Bill Scranton, Lynn Swann and Jim Panyard for whom would you vote? (n/a = not asked)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 2005 2005 2005 Piccola 5 6 6 Scranton 23 21 21 Swann 26 32 25 Panyard 2 n/a n/a SMONE ELSE 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE 3 2 - DK/NA 39 36 47