Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * February 13, 2006 * Casey Widens Lead Over Santoru - Quinnipiac University

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February 13, 2006 - Casey Widens Lead Over Santorum In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Lean To Pro-Choice Side Of Abortion Debate

Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. holds a 51 - 36 percent lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in the Pennsylvania Senate race, with 10 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 50 - 38 percent Casey lead in a December 13, 2005, poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republicans back Santorum 70 - 21 percent, while Democrats back Casey 80 - 12 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 52 - 29 percent. Men back Casey 49 - 38 percent and women back him 53 - 35 percent.
While both candidates are pro-life, Pennsylvania voters lean to the pro-choice side of the abortion debate, with:
17 percent who say abortion should be legal in all cases; 36 percent who say abortion should be legal in most cases; 25 percent who say abortion should be illegal in most cases; 16 percent who say abortion should be illegal in all cases.
"Sen. Santorum opens the election year a solid 15 points behind Bob Casey and facing serious opposition from a significant number of members of his own party. One in five Republicans are voting for Casey at this point and label Santorum's views as 'extreme'," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The same number of GOP voters say Santorum does not deserve reelection. Casey is leading in every region of the state except Central Pennsylvania, and there Santorum's six point lead is not solid," Richards added. "A majority of independents meanwhile are joining an overwhelming Democratic support for Casey.
"President George W. Bush, with an approval rating of just 37 percent in Pennsylvania, isn't doing much to help one of his strongest supporters in Washington. But the campaign is just beginning and Santorum has a rock-hard base to build on, while Casey has not been tested by extensive television exposure or debates."
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 59 - 37 percent of the job President Bush is doing overall and disapprove 60 - 37 percent of his handling of the situation in Iraq. Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 55 - 40 percent. Sen. Santorum's views on issues are in the mainstream, 48 percent of voters say, while 34 percent, including 20 percent of Republicans, say they are extreme.
Casey's views are mainstream, 59 percent of voters say, while 10 percent say they are extreme.
Santorum has been a "great" or "good" Senator, 37 percent of voters say, while 57 percent say he has been "so-so" or "bad." He has a split 43 - 42 percent approval rating, tying his all- time low.
Voters give Casey a 34 - 6 percent favorability rating, with 22 percent mixed and 38 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Santorum gets a 31 - 29 percent favorability rating, with 22 percent mixed and 17 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
From January 31 - February 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,661 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 56% 57% 57% 55% 57% 56% Disapprove 32 33 31 32 33 31 DK/NA 12 10 11 14 10 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Approve 60% 47% 64% 58% 51% 54% 57% Disapprove 24 41 28 33 37 32 30 DK/NA 16 12 8 9 12 14 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Jul 13 Apr 22 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005* 2004 Approve 56 57 57 60 53 60 47 Disapprove 32 31 32 30 33 30 36 DK/NA 12 11 12 10 13 10 17
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 43% 66% 24% 38% 43% 43% Disapprove 42 21 59 46 43 42 DK/NA 15 13 16 15 14 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Approve 33% 31% 49% 35% 51% 46% 51% Disapprove 58 49 36 47 34 40 36 DK/NA 9 20 15 18 16 14 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 56% on 8/7/2003 and 2/21/2003) (** Also hit 43% on 10/6/2005)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Dec 17 Feb 13 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2003* 2006 ** Approve 43 48 43 51 48 56 43 Disapprove 42 38 41 35 35 29 42 DK/NA 15 14 16 14 18 15 15
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 37% 72% 10% 34% 40% 35% Disapprove 59 24 88 59 56 61 DK/NA 4 4 2 6 4 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Approve 32% 13% 41% 32% 46% 47% 46% Disapprove 61 81 57 64 48 49 51 DK/NA 7 6 2 4 5 4 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* Also hit 37% on 10/6/2005)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Jun 5 Feb 13 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2002 2006 * Approve 37 38 37 44 43 73 37 Disapprove 59 59 61 53 53 21 59 DK/NA 4 3 3 3 4 6 4
15. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 31% 54% 12% 28% 35% 28% Unfavorable 29 12 44 30 32 27 Mixed 22 23 21 22 18 25 Hvn't hrd enough 17 10 21 19 14 20 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Favorable 21% 15% 41% 27% 39% 36% 37% Unfavorable 45 33 25 33 20 30 22 Mixed 25 22 16 22 19 25 23 Hvn't hrd enough 9 26 18 17 22 10 17 REFUSED - 2 - - - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 Oct 15 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2003 Favorable 31 35 33 37 36 41 44 Unfavorable 29 28 30 27 25 24 24 Mixed 22 21 19 17 20 17 18 Haven't heard enough 17 14 18 19 19 16 14 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 -
16. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 34% 27% 40% 35% 33% 35% Unfavorable 6 9 3 6 7 5 Mixed 22 25 20 21 23 21 Hvn't hrd enough 38 39 37 38 37 39 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Favorable 39% 26% 35% 30% 34% 35% 38% Unfavorable 3 4 9 7 4 3 7 Mixed 25 21 17 24 24 21 21 Hvn't hrd enough 32 48 39 38 38 41 34 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - - -
TREND: Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 34 40 38 39 40 41 Unfavorable 6 6 9 9 6 8 Mixed 22 18 20 17 15 18 Haven't heard enough 38 34 33 36 38 31 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 1
17. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 51% 21% 80% 52% 49% 53% Santorum 36 70 12 29 38 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 2 DK/NA 10 8 7 15 10 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Casey 62% 67% 48% 51% 48% 51% 41% Santorum 28 20 41 32 37 40 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 4 3 - 1 DK/NA 9 9 6 13 11 9 10
TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Bob Casey, Jr. 51 50 52 50 49 46 Rick Santorum 36 38 34 39 35 41 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 10 10 11 11 13 11
18. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves reelection 41% 68% 22% 33% 43% 39% Does not 44 21 63 47 44 43 DK/NA 15 10 15 20 13 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Deserves reelection 30% 27% 44% 38% 46% 45% 50% Does not 57 52 41 45 37 41 37 DK/NA 13 21 15 17 17 14 13
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 41 45 41 45 44 53 Does not 44 40 42 38 37 30 DK/NA 15 14 17 17 19 17
19. How would you rate Rick Santorum as a United States Senator? Has he been a great senator, a good senator, a so-so senator or a bad senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Great 6% 15% 0% 4% 7% 6% Good 31 46 18 27 31 30 So-so 37 29 43 42 34 40 Bad 20 6 33 22 23 18 DK/NA 5 4 6 5 5 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Great 7% 3% 8% 6% 6% 9% 6% Good 23 15 34 28 36 31 39 So-so 38 52 31 37 39 38 32 Bad 31 24 20 23 15 17 16 DK/NA 1 6 7 6 5 4 6
TREND: How would you rate Rick Santorum as a United States Senator? Has he been a great senator, a good senator, a so-so senator or a bad senator?
Feb 13 Dec 13 2006 2005 Great 6 6 Good 31 34 So-so 37 37 Bad 20 16 DK/NA 5 6
20. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% Smwht satisfied 49 50 54 48 48 51 Smwht dissatisfied 30 31 27 32 33 27 Very dissatisfied 15 15 13 15 14 16 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Very satisfied 4% 4% 5% 8% 2% 3% 4% Smwht satisfied 37 50 54 62 38 42 50 Smwht dissatisfied 38 24 26 23 42 36 29 Very dissatisfied 18 21 14 6 17 17 16 DK/NA 3 1 1 2 - 2 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Feb 13 Dec 8 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 Jul 13 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 Very satisfied 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 Smwht satisfied 49 50 42 48 49 52 51 Smwht dissatisfied 30 33 33 32 30 28 29 Very dissatisifed 15 13 20 15 15 15 14 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
21. What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today?
Tot Economy Total 27% Economy general 4 Unemployment/jobs 19 Minimum wage too low 2 Businesses leaving/ Outsourcing 2 Taxes Total 20% Taxes general 10 Property tax 10 Healthcare Total 8% Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 6 Medicare 1 Prescription costs 1 Politicians Total 6% Politicians/ Campaigns general 2 Political corruption 1 Governor/State leadership 3 Crime/Violence Total 5% Crime/Violence general 4 Drugs 1 Education Total 5% Education general 3 Funding education 2 Budget Total 2% Budget general 1 Budget priorities 1 Energy Costs Total 2% Energy costs general 1 Gas prices 1 Casinos/Gambling 2 Environment/Pollution 1 Medical malpractice 1 Poor condition of roads/highways 1 Poverty/Homeless 1 Senior issues 1 Terrorism general 1 War (Iraq) 1 Welfare 1 Other 5 DK/NA 8
22. Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too liberal 9% 10% 9% 7% 9% 9% Too conservative 31 15 45 33 34 29 About right 40 60 24 39 41 39 DK/NA 20 15 22 21 16 23 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Too liberal 14% 9% 12% 6% 10% 5% 10% Too conservative 39 35 26 43 19 31 23 About right 31 36 38 32 46 45 49 DK/NA 16 20 24 19 25 19 18
TREND: Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Too liberal 9 8 9 6 8 7 Too conservative 31 29 29 29 25 25 About right 40 45 40 44 44 44 DK/NA 20 17 22 20 24 25
23. Do you think Bob Casey Jr. is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too liberal 11% 22% 4% 9% 13% 10% Too conservative 7 3 12 7 8 6 About right 49 37 58 50 50 48 DK/NA 32 38 26 34 28 36 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Too liberal 11% 9% 13% 10% 11% 9% 15% Too conservative 8 13 6 9 8 4 5 About right 50 48 54 47 47 48 50 DK/NA 31 30 28 35 34 39 30
TREND: Do you think Bob Casey Jr. is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Feb 13 Dec 13 2006 2005 Too liberal 11 15 Too conservative 7 7 About Right 49 51 DK/NA 32 27
24. Would you say that Rick Santorum's views on the issues are in the mainstream or are they extreme?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mainstream 48% 67% 33% 45% 51% 45% Extreme 34 20 48 36 35 34 DK/NA 17 13 19 19 14 21 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Mainstream 37% 37% 54% 42% 53% 55% 55% Extreme 53 42 30 40 27 28 25 DK/NA 11 20 16 17 21 16 19
TREND: Would you say that Rick Santorum's views on the issues are in the mainstream or are they extreme?
Feb 13 Dec 13 2006 2005 Mainstream 48 49 Extreme 34 35 DK/NA 17 16
25. Would you say that Bob Casey Jr.'s views on the issues are in the mainstream or are they extreme?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mainstream 59% 52% 67% 56% 60% 57% Extreme 10 12 8 11 10 9 DK/NA 32 37 25 33 30 33 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Mainstream 64% 63% 64% 57% 60% 48% 57% Extreme 9 10 10 10 7 10 11 DK/NA 27 27 27 33 34 42 32
TREND: Would you say that Bob Casey Jr.'s views on the issues are in the mainstream or are they extreme?
Feb 13 Dec 13 2006 2005 Mainstream 59 57 Extreme 10 13 DK/NA 32 30
26. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Legal all cases 17% 8% 25% 17% 13% 20% Legal most cases 36 29 39 43 38 33 Illegal most cases 25 37 16 22 28 23 Illegal all cases 16 22 14 10 13 18 DK/NA 6 4 6 8 8 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Legal all cases 11% 26% 18% 25% 12% 13% 12% Legal most cases 38 32 30 45 35 28 35 Illegal most cases 26 18 27 18 29 27 32 Illegal all cases 16 19 18 7 16 22 16 DK/NA 8 6 7 5 8 9 5
TREND: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
Feb 13 Dec 13 Jul 13 Apr 20 Mar 18 Jun 5 2006 2005 2005 2005 2003 2002 Legal all 17 18 16 16 23 21 Legal Most 36 35 37 33 32 32 Illegal Most 25 26 27 26 24 24 Illegal All 16 16 14 18 17 15 DK/NA 6 5 7 7 4 8
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 37% 68% 10% 34% 40% 34% Disapprove 60 27 87 62 57 62 DK/NA 3 4 3 3 3 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Approve 33% 12% 41% 29% 46% 48% 45% Disapprove 65 84 59 69 45 47 51 DK/NA 1 4 - 2 9 4 4
34. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 40% 70% 16% 36% 43% 37% Wrong thing 55 26 81 57 53 57 DK/NA 4 4 3 6 3 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Right thing 34% 18% 50% 32% 51% 52% 46% Wrong thing 64 78 49 62 42 43 49 DK/NA 2 4 1 5 7 5 5
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Oct 28 Oct 22 Oct 12 Sep 28 2006 2005 2005 2004 2004 2004 2004 Right thing 40 40 37 48 45 45 43 Wrong thing 55 55 57 45 48 48 49 DK/NA 4 5 6 7 8 7 8
35. (If Registered Democrat)If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. and Chuck Pennacchio for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Casey 70% 77% 65% Pennacchio 5 6 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 DK/NA 21 13 27