Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * May 11, 2006 * Santorum Still Slipping In Pen - Quinnipiac University

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May 11, 2006 - Santorum Still Slipping In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Almost Half Of Casey Support Is Anti-Santorum

Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. leads Pennsylvania incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 49 - 36 percent, with 12 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 48 - 37 percent Casey lead in an April 6 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republicans back Sen. Santorum 70 - 16 percent, while Democrats back Casey 77 - 11 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 52 - 26 percent. Men back Casey 45 - 40 percent and women back him 51 - 32 percent.
Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a negative 41 - 44 percent approval rating, down from 44 - 40 percent April 6 and the incumbent's lowest approval rating ever. Only 37 percent of voters say Santorum deserves to be reelected, with 45 percent who say he does not, also Santorum's lowest score ever.
"As Election Day gets closer, Sen. Santorum's numbers are inching downward. His job approval is at an all-time low as is the number of voters who think he deserves to be re-elected," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"To be sure, the campaign has not really started and there are millions of dollars to be spent before Election Day, but for an incumbent Senator, Santorum is struggling in the doldrums. His Democratic opponent, Robert Casey, is about to dispense with two unknown primary challengers in a race that is significant because it appears to be showing that the Casey campaign won't be hurt by his stand against abortion," Richards added.
In the general election, 48 percent of Casey supporters say they mainly back the Democrat while 47 percent say they mainly are voting against Santorum.
"In the match up for next Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary, Casey gets 62 percent, with 4 percent for Chuck Pennacchio and 2 percent for Alan Sandals. Another 27 percent are undecided. President's Approval
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 66 - 30 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing overall. This is down from a 60 - 35 percent disapproval April 6 and the President's lowest approval in Pennsylvania. Voters also disapprove 67 - 29 percent of his handling of the situation in Iraq. Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 57 - 38 percent.
Looking at the situation in Iraq:
15 percent of voters say increase U.S. troop levels; 21 percent say keep current troop levels; 24 percent say decrease troop levels; 32 percent say remove all troops. From May 2 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,487 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 669 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 55% 51% 59% 58% 54% 56% Disapprove 33 37 31 31 37 29 DK/NA 12 12 11 11 9 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 55% 67% 56% 57% 55% 45% 53% Disapprove 34 24 29 30 32 43 36 DK/NA 10 8 14 13 13 12 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 22 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005* 2004 Approve 55 53 56 57 57 60 47 Disapprove 33 32 32 31 32 30 36 DK/NA 12 14 12 11 12 10 17
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 41% 65% 27% 28% 43% 40% Disapprove 44 21 57 59 45 43 DK/NA 15 14 16 13 12 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 38% 33% 42% 36% 48% 45% 46% Disapprove 55 47 35 47 40 48 39 DK/NA 7 21 23 17 13 7 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 56% on 8/7/2003 and 2/21/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Dec 17 May 11 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2003* 2006 Approve 41 44 43 48 43 56 41 Disapprove 44 40 42 38 41 29 44 DK/NA 15 16 15 14 16 15 15
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 30% 58% 11% 23% 32% 29% Disapprove 66 36 89 74 65 67 DK/NA 3 6 1 3 3 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 32% 18% 31% 25% 32% 32% 38% Disapprove 65 80 67 69 64 67 59 DK/NA 3 2 2 6 4 1 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jun 5 May 11 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2002 2006 Approve 30 35 37 38 37 73 30 Disapprove 66 60 59 59 61 21 66 DK/NA 3 4 4 3 3 6 3
12. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 27% 50% 12% 18% 31% 23% Unfavorable 36 13 50 47 36 35 Mixed 18 18 17 21 18 19 Hvn't hrd enough 19 18 21 13 14 23 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 23% 14% 28% 24% 28% 32% 34% Unfavorable 47 34 31 38 29 40 32 Mixed 16 23 13 23 24 12 16 Hvn't hrd enough 12 28 27 15 19 16 17 REFUSED 2 1 - - 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 27 32 31 35 33 37 36 Unfavorable 36 32 29 28 30 27 25 Mixed 18 18 22 21 19 17 20 Haven't heard enough 19 19 17 14 18 19 19 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1
13. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 25% 18% 33% 22% 26% 24% Unfavorable 11 15 5 14 12 9 Mixed 18 16 18 20 16 19 Hvn't hrd enough 46 50 43 44 45 47 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 23% 19% 25% 20% 26% 35% 27% Unfavorable 10 11 12 16 6 6 9 Mixed 21 30 20 17 11 11 15 Hvn't hrd enough 46 35 42 46 56 47 48 REFUSED - 4 - 1 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 25 33 34 40 38 39 40 Unfavorable 11 10 6 6 9 9 6 Mixed 18 16 22 18 20 17 15 Haven't heard enough 46 40 38 34 33 36 38 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1
14. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 49% 16% 77% 52% 45% 51% Santorum 36 70 11 26 40 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 4 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 12 12 10 16 11 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 56% 58% 50% 47% 46% 49% 42% Santorum 34 21 31 36 42 39 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 3 3 - 1 2 DK/NA 9 15 15 13 12 10 11
TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Bob Casey, Jr. 49 48 51 50 52 50 49 Rick Santorum 36 37 36 38 34 39 35 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 12 12 10 10 11 11 13
15. (If candidate choice q14) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
Chose Sen Choice Q14 CandQ14 BC RS Made up 70% 73% 65% Might change 29 26 33 DK/NA 1 1 2
16a. (If Santorum q14) Is your vote more for Santorum or more against Casey?
Santorum Q14 For Santorum 80% Against Casey 12 DK/NA 8
16b. (If Casey q14) Is your vote more for Casey or more against Santorum?
Casey Q14 For Casey 48% Against Santorum 47 DK/NA 5
17. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves reelection 37% 66% 18% 26% 41% 34% Does not 45 18 63 59 46 44 DK/NA 18 16 19 15 13 21 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Deserves reelection 31% 22% 39% 36% 48% 40% 44% Does not 55 50 36 49 42 46 39 DK/NA 14 28 24 15 9 14 17
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 37 43 41 45 41 45 44 Does not 45 41 44 40 42 38 37 DK/NA 18 16 15 14 17 17 19
18. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr., Chuck Pennacchio, and Alan Sandals for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Casey 62% 63% 61% Pennacchio 4 4 3 Sandals 2 3 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3 DK/NA 27 24 29
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr., Chuck Pennacchio, and Alan Sandals for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS May 11 Apr 6 2006 2006 Casey 62 63 Pennacchio 4 4 Sandals 2 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 27 25
19. (If candidate choice q18) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
Chose CandQ18 Made up 61% Might change 38 DK/NA 2
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 57% 10% 22% 31% 28% Disapprove 67 36 89 75 66 67 DK/NA 4 7 1 3 3 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 34% 13% 33% 24% 34% 29% 36% Disapprove 62 85 66 72 62 64 59 DK/NA 4 2 1 4 4 7 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 2006 2006 2006 Approve 29 35 37 Disapprove 67 62 60 DK/NA 4 3 3
22. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 38% 69% 14% 33% 40% 35% Wrong thing 57 25 82 63 56 58 DK/NA 5 6 4 4 3 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Right thing 42% 15% 37% 34% 50% 40% 43% Wrong thing 54 79 57 62 48 54 49 DK/NA 4 6 6 4 2 6 7
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Oct 28 Oct 22 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2004 2004 Right thing 38 39 40 40 37 48 45 Wrong thing 57 55 55 55 57 45 48 DK/NA 5 6 4 5 6 7 8
23. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? A) Should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Increase troops 15% 20% 10% 18% 19% 12% B) Keep same amount 21 33 11 20 22 20 C) Decrease troops 24 24 25 22 23 25 D) Remove all troops 32 16 48 30 29 36 DK/NA 8 8 6 10 8 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl A) Increase troops 15% 14% 14% 17% 13% 15% 15% B) Keep same amount 24 9 23 22 26 17 23 C) Decrease troops 21 16 20 29 31 21 26 D) Remove all troops 32 53 34 25 23 43 27 DK/NA 8 8 9 7 6 5 9
TREND: From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. -- A) increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?
May 11 Apr 6 2006 2006 A) Increase troops 15 12 B) Keep same amount 21 23 C) Decrease troops 24 31 D) Remove all troops 32 28 DK/NA 8 6