Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * June 22, 2006 * Swann Gains No Ground On Rende - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> Pennsylvania (PA)> Release Detail

June 22, 2006 - Swann Gains No Ground On Rendell In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Hike Sales Tax To Cut Property Tax, Voters Say

Republican challenger Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steeler, has gained no ground on Gov. Ed Rendell in their race for Governor and trails the Democratic incumbent 55 - 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 55 - 33 percent Rendell lead in a May 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll.
In this latest survey, Gov. Rendell leads Swann 78 - 13 percent among Democrats and 60 - 22 percent among independent voters. Swann leads 61 - 27 percent among Republicans. Men back Rendell 50 - 38 percent, while women back him 59 - 26 percent.
Among Swann supporters, 54 percent say their vote is mainly against Rendell. Republicans who identify themselves as conservative back Swann 67 - 22 percent, while self- identified liberal or moderate Republicans back Swann 53 - 36 percent.
Pennsylvania voters approve 55 -30 percent of the job Rendell is doing, tying his highest approval 55 - 31 percent May 12.
"The Lynn Swann campaign is dead in the water while the Rendell juggernaut continues to charge forward. Swann is gaining no ground on the popular Democratic Governor and, in fact, is having trouble within his own party, where more than a quarter of Republicans are supporting Rendell," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The Governor gets a 44 - 22 percent favorability, with 23 percent mixed and 10 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Voter opinion of Swann is 23 - 14 percent favorable, with 12 percent mixed and 50 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Pennsylvania voters split 46 - 46 percent on whether they would vote against their local state legislators just because those legislators voted for a pay raise which later was rescinded. But 57 percent of voters say they don't know how their local lawmakers voted on the pay raise.
"The legislature's repealed pay raise remains a volatile issue in this campaign, and lawmakers in Western and Central Pennsylvania remain vulnerable to the voters' wrath if they voted in favor of the pay raise," Richards said.
Voters split 39 - 41 percent on their approval of the way Rendell is handling property taxes.
By a 55 - 35 percent margin, voters support raising the state sales tax if it means reducing local property taxes.
"Lawmakers may want to take another look at hiking the state sales tax. Voters say they would back such a hike if it meant lower property taxes," Richards said.
From June 13 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,076 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 55% 39% 69% 53% 52% 57% Disapprove 30 47 18 27 35 26 DK/NA 15 14 13 19 13 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 48% 81% 58% 70% 34% 40% 42% Disapprove 38 13 27 21 39 46 36 DK/NA 14 6 15 9 27 14 22
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (* Also hit 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Jun 22 Apr 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2006 2006* Approve 55 55 46 51 51 55 46 Disapprove 30 31 37 33 35 30 37 DK/NA 15 14 17 16 14 15 17
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 30% 34% 19% 26% 30% Disapprove 54 53 50 65 57 52 DK/NA 17 18 15 16 16 18 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 20% 39% 28% 33% 24% 20% 28% Disapprove 62 50 53 52 43 71 52 DK/NA 19 10 19 15 33 9 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 8 Apr 10 Oct 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2003 2005 Approve 29 31 29 33 30 49 26 Disapprove 54 53 55 52 57 24 60 DK/NA 17 16 16 15 13 27 14
6. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 44% 25% 63% 40% 44% 45% Unfavorable 22 39 9 17 28 16 Mixed 23 27 17 30 22 25 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 10 13 6 13 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 36% 74% 43% 59% 29% 31% 30% Unfavorable 30 6 20 15 25 35 26 Mixed 27 16 23 19 28 23 29 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 13 6 18 9 14 REFUSED - - 1 2 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 44 43 35 40 38 39 37 Unfavorable 22 24 27 24 27 29 29 Mixed 23 22 24 25 27 22 22 Havn't hrd enough 10 11 13 10 8 11 11 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - 1
7. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 23% 36% 15% 17% 27% 19% Unfavorable 14 7 21 13 18 10 Mixed 12 11 15 10 11 13 Hvn't hrd enough 50 46 48 59 43 57 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 26% 10% 20% 19% 24% 41% 24% Unfavorable 17 16 9 18 11 15 10 Mixed 19 15 10 12 10 15 8 Hvn't hrd enough 35 56 62 50 55 28 56 REFUSED 2 2 - 1 - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 23 22 23 29 28 26 26 Unfavorable 14 13 12 8 8 7 7 Mixed 12 11 11 9 9 9 7 Haven't heard enough 50 53 52 52 54 56 59 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 2 1
8. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 55% 27% 78% 60% 50% 59% Swann 31 61 13 22 38 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 3 2 1 DK/NA 11 9 9 12 10 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 50% 80% 54% 68% 38% 44% 43% Swann 34 6 27 25 43 45 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 12 11 16 4 19 9 13 REPUBLICANS ... Consrv Lib/Mod Rendell 22% 36% Swann 67 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 DK/NA 9 8
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 Rendell 55 55 47 48 48 47 48 Swann 31 33 37 36 35 34 36 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 11 10 12 14 14 15 13
8a. (If candidate choice Q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
CANDIDATE CHOICE Q8... CAND OF CHOICE Tot ED LS Made up 64% 63% 65% Might change 35 35 34 DK/NA 1 2 1
9a. (If "Rendell" q8) Is your vote more for Rendell or more against Swann?
RENDELL VOTER Q8... Tot Men Wom For Rendell 82% 86% 79% Against Swann 9 10 9 DK/NA 9 5 12
9b. (If "Swann" q8) Is your vote more for Swann or more against Rendell?
SWANN VOTER Q8..... Tot Men Wom For Swann 40% 42% 37% Against Rendell 54 52 56 DK/NA 7 7 7
10. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves reelection 53% 33% 72% 53% 52% 55% No/Does not 34 57 17 29 39 29 DK/NA 13 11 10 17 9 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves reelection 49% 78% 52% 68% 38% 39% 41% No/Does not 43 12 35 22 43 49 41 DK/NA 8 10 13 11 19 11 17
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 53 55 46 49 49 48 46 Does not deserve 34 33 40 37 40 41 41 DK/NA 13 12 14 14 12 11 14
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling property taxes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 39% 25% 51% 39% 39% 38% Disapprove 41 54 31 39 44 39 DK/NA 20 21 18 22 17 23 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 36% 56% 45% 40% 27% 27% 34% Disapprove 48 26 36 36 43 60 46 DK/NA 16 18 19 23 30 13 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling property taxes?
Jun 22 Jul 13 Apr 22 Feb 20 2006 2004 2004 2003 Approve 39 41 29 33 Disapprove 41 43 50 33 DK/NA 20 16 21 34
17. Would you support raising the state sales tax, if it meant lowering property taxes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 55% 52% 54% 61% 57% 52% No 35 39 35 31 35 35 DK/NA 11 9 11 8 8 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 59% 56% 52% 49% 50% 61% 57% No 33 35 40 38 38 31 31 DK/NA 9 9 8 13 12 9 12
TREND: Would you support raising the state sales tax if it meant lowering property taxes?
Jun 22 Apr 5 2006 2006 Yes 55 50 No 35 44 DK/NA 11 7
18. As you may know, last year the state legislature voted itself a pay raise, then later voted to repeal it. Do you happen to know whether your state representative and state senator voted for the original pay raise, voted against the original pay raise, or don't you happen to know?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted for 30% 32% 29% 32% 32% 28% Voted against 9 11 6 10 11 7 Don't know 57 53 60 55 52 61 VOTED DIFFERENTLY(VOL) 2 3 2 2 2 2 REFUSED 2 2 3 1 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Voted for 36% 25% 29% 22% 33% 36% 35% Voted against 8 7 8 10 7 12 9 Don't know 54 64 60 63 55 48 53 VOTED DIFFERENTLY(VOL) 2 2 2 1 4 2 3 REFUSED 1 2 1 4 1 2 1
19. Thinking about the pay raise, would you vote against your state legislator just because they voted for the original pay raise?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 46% 46% 49% 44% 46% 47% No 46 51 45 46 47 46 DK/NA 7 3 6 11 6 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 57% 35% 37% 38% 51% 65% 50% No 37 55 53 55 42 31 44 DK/NA 6 10 9 7 8 3 6