Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * August 15, 2006 * Casey Leads Santorum 48 - 42% - Quinnipiac University

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August 15, 2006 - Casey Leads Santorum 48 - 42% Among Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Incumbent Has Gained Ground On Challenger

In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. leads incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 48 - 42 percent among likely voters, including leaners, with 5 percent for Green party candidate Carl Romanelli and 5 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In a two-way matchup among registered voters, Casey leads Sen. Santorum 47 - 40 percent, with 11 percent undecided. This compares to a 52 - 34 percent Casey lead in a June 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, 27 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they still might change their mind.
By a 49 - 42 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely voters say Santorum does not deserve to be reelected. Among registered voters who back Casey, 42 percent say their vote is mainly against Santorum, while 50 percent say their vote is mainly for the Democrat.
"Bob Casey's lead over Sen. Santorum has shrunk to single digits in part because the Green Party candidate is siphoning votes from the Democratic challenger. It's not surprising Sen. Santorum has narrowed the gap, but his bid for re-election is still in trouble as long as almost 50 percent of the voters say he does not deserve another term," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Casey still has the advantage as long as Santorum's job approval is mixed and his favorability rating remains in negative territory. But three in 10 likely voters say they don't know enough about Casey to form an opinion, and the key to the election may well be how those voters will swing once they get to know him. Santorum gets no help from President Bush, whose approval rating remains near record lows," Richards added.
Pennsylvania registered voters give Santorum a split 42 - 44 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 38 - 45 percent score June 21, the incumbent's lowest approval rating ever. He gets a negative 34 - 40 percent favorability rating among likely voters, with 17 percent mixed and 9 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Casey gets a 31 - 17 percent favorability among likely voters, with 21 percent mixed and 31 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. President's Approval
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 64 - 33 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing overall, virtually unchanged from June 21. Voters also disapprove 64 - 31 percent of his handling of the situation in Iraq and say 58 - 36 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.
From August 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,384 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 1,011 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 50% 48% 54% 47% 52% 48% Disapprove 37 40 33 36 39 35 DK/NA 13 11 13 17 10 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 51% 55% 44% 55% 44% 58% 45% Disapprove 37 31 41 37 37 31 40 DK/NA 12 15 15 9 20 11 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Jul 13 Apr 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005* 2004 Approve 50 52 55 53 56 60 47 Disapprove 37 36 33 32 32 30 36 DK/NA 13 12 12 14 12 10 17
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 42% 66% 24% 40% 46% 38% Disapprove 44 20 63 44 42 45 DK/NA 15 14 14 16 12 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 35% 32% 46% 37% 41% 48% 48% Disapprove 59 48 35 47 46 43 36 DK/NA 6 20 19 16 13 9 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also 56% on 8/7/2003 and 2/21/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 17 Jun 21 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2003* 2006 Approve 42 38 41 44 43 56 38 Disapprove 44 45 44 40 42 29 45 DK/NA 15 16 15 16 15 15 16
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 33% 64% 10% 30% 36% 30% Disapprove 64 31 89 66 61 66 DK/NA 3 5 2 4 3 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 34% 10% 34% 29% 41% 43% 40% Disapprove 62 86 63 68 55 53 58 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 4 3 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Jun 5 May 11 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2002 2006 Approve 33 34 30 35 37 73 30 Disapprove 64 62 66 60 59 21 66 DK/NA 3 4 3 4 4 6 3
13. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Likely Favorable 30% 54% 14% 26% 35% 25% 34% Unfavorable 33 13 48 35 33 33 40 Mixed 20 20 19 22 20 21 17 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 20 17 12 21 9 REFUSED - - - - - - - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 26% 13% 31% 27% 30% 40% 36% Unfavorable 48 34 27 33 29 31 31 Mixed 22 16 23 22 27 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 5 37 19 17 13 11 15 REFUSED - - - - - - -
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Favorable 30 28 27 32 31 35 33 Unfavorable 33 35 36 32 29 28 30 Mixed 20 19 18 18 22 21 19 Haven't heard enough 17 19 19 19 17 14 18 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - 1
14. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Likely Favorable 26% 15% 38% 23% 26% 26% 31% Unfavorable 14 25 6 10 17 10 17 Mixed 20 20 19 21 18 22 21 Hvn't hrd enough 40 39 37 45 39 41 31 REFUSED - - - - - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 27% 20% 38% 20% 30% 31% 25% Unfavorable 18 9 9 11 13 16 18 Mixed 25 20 12 24 16 18 20 Hvn't hrd enough 30 51 40 45 41 35 37 REFUSED - - 1 - - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Favorable 26 26 25 33 34 40 38 Unfavorable 14 11 11 10 6 6 9 Mixed 20 20 18 16 22 18 20 Haven't heard enough 40 42 46 40 38 34 33 REFUSED - 1 1 1 - 1 1
15a. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 47% 15% 74% 48% 42% 52% Santorum 40 74 15 36 45 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 11 10 9 14 10 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 50% 59% 46% 49% 48% 47% 39% Santorum 40 24 39 39 38 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 2 1 1 - 2 DK/NA 9 17 11 10 10 9 11
TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Bob Casey, Jr. 47 52 49 48 51 50 52 Rick Santorum 40 34 36 37 36 38 34 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 11 12 12 12 10 10 11
15. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote?(If undecided q15a) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey or Santorum? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 51% 15% 77% 57% 45% 57% Santorum 44 79 16 40 52 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 DK/NA 5 5 6 2 3 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 54% 62% 44% 56% 50% 54% 42% Santorum 38 28 49 40 44 42 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 1 - DK/NA 8 10 6 3 5 3 4
16a. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, Rick Santorum the Republican, and Carl Romanelli the Green party candidate for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 45% 14% 74% 40% 41% 49% Santorum 39 74 13 36 44 34 Romanelli 5 2 5 10 6 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 10 9 8 12 7 11 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 49% 59% 44% 46% 48% 46% 36% Santorum 39 22 40 36 35 45 48 Romanelli 6 6 5 5 7 2 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 1 - - 2 DK/NA 6 12 9 13 9 7 9
16. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, Rick Santorum the Republican, and Carl Romanelli the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote? (If undecided q16a) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey, Santorum or Romanelli? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 48% 15% 76% 48% 43% 54% Santorum 42 78 15 39 49 35 Romanelli 5 2 5 10 5 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 4 3 3 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 51% 60% 43% 54% 49% 52% 37% Santorum 38 27 48 39 40 43 51 Romanelli 3 7 2 4 8 1 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 6 7 3 3 4 4
16b. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... BC RS Tot Voters Voters Made up 72 77% 72% Might change 27 23 28 DK/NA 1 1 -
17. Is your vote more for Santorum or more against Casey?
SANTORUM VOTERS Reg Likely For Santorum 82% 82% Against Casey 13 13 DK/NA 5 5
18. Is your vote more for Casey or more against Santorum?
CASEY VOTERS.. Reg Likely For Casey 50% 43% Against Santorum 42 51 DK/NA 8 6
19. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Likely Yes/Deserves to be reelected 42% 70% 21% 40% 46% 38% 42% No/Does not 43 19 61 47 44 43 49 DK/NA 15 12 18 13 10 19 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves to be reelected 42% 30% 39% 39% 40% 51% 46% No/Does not 52 48 41 45 45 39 39 DK/NA 6 22 19 16 14 10 15
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 42 37 37 43 41 45 41 Does not 43 45 45 41 44 40 42 DK/NA 15 19 18 16 15 14 17
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Likely Approve 31% 60% 9% 27% 37% 25% 34% Disapprove 64 34 88 66 60 68 61 DK/NA 5 6 2 7 3 6 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 30% 10% 31% 26% 39% 41% 37% Disapprove 66 84 65 69 53 55 59 DK/NA 4 6 3 5 8 4 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 31 35 29 35 37 Disapprove 64 62 67 62 60 DK/NA 5 3 4 3 3
21. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Likely Right thing 36% 66% 14% 34% 41% 32% 38% Wrong thing 58 28 81 58 55 61 58 DK/NA 6 5 5 7 4 7 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Right thing 34% 16% 39% 32% 41% 45% 44% Wrong thing 61 80 54 62 53 50 50 DK/NA 5 4 7 6 6 5 6
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Right thing 36 38 38 39 40 40 37 Wrong thing 58 57 57 55 55 55 57 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 4 5 6