Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * August 16, 2006 * Rendell Has 19-Point Likely Vo - Quinnipiac University

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August 16, 2006 - Rendell Has 19-Point Likely Voter Lead In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Most Voters Say Rendell Deserves Reelection

Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell has a 57- 38 percent lead among likely voters, including leaners, over his Republican challenger, former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann, with 4 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Among registered voters, Gov. Rendell leads 54 - 34 percent. This compares to a 55 - 31 percent Rendell lead in a June 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh- pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, 34 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they still might change their mind before Election Day.
Likely voters for Swann split 47 - 49 percent on whether their support is mainly for Swann or mainly against Rendell.
"Lynn Swann has failed to make any significant headway against Gov. Rendell over the summer. The former Steeler wide receiver's two big problems are that 38 percent of likely voters don't know him well enough to form an opinion and about a quarter of Republicans are voting for the Democratic Governor," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Meanwhile 'Teflon Ed' continues to get high marks from the voters and 54 percent say he deserves another term in Harrisburg."
"Lynn Swann is taking a big political gamble by inviting President Bush to campaign for him in Pennsylvania, but it's probably a risk he has to take," Richards added.
"Swann needs President Bush to help win back those Republicans who are backing Rendell. Also, the President can help raise the kind of money Swann needs to take on a well-financed Democratic incumbent."
Pennsylvania registered voters approve 54 - 31 percent of the job Rendell is doing, little changed from June 22.
The Governor gets a 44 - 28 percent favorability among likely voters, with 23 percent mixed and 4 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Voter opinion of Swann is 25 - 21 percent favorable, with 15 percent mixed and 38 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
From August 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,384 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 1,011 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 54% 37% 71% 49% 55% 53% Disapprove 31 48 17 33 34 27 DK/NA 15 15 12 17 10 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 42% 76% 54% 70% 46% 48% 43% Disapprove 43 12 28 18 37 41 39 DK/NA 16 12 18 12 17 11 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (* Also hit 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 16 Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Jun 22 Apr 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006* Approve 54 55 55 46 51 55 46 Disapprove 31 30 31 37 33 30 37 DK/NA 15 15 14 17 16 15 17
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 31% 33% 33% 25% 33% 28% Disapprove 52 50 51 59 55 50 DK/NA 17 17 16 16 12 22 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 19% 40% 42% 34% 27% 28% 26% Disapprove 63 41 40 50 54 55 58 DK/NA 18 19 18 16 19 16 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 16 Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Apr 10 Oct 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2003 2005 Approve 31 29 31 29 33 49 26 Disapprove 52 54 53 55 52 24 60 DK/NA 17 17 16 16 15 27 14
6. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Likely Favorable 39% 25% 55% 32% 39% 40% 44% Unfavorable 22 36 11 24 25 20 28 Mixed 25 25 23 31 26 25 23 Hvn't hrd enough 12 14 11 13 9 15 4 REFUSED - - - - - - - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 34% 59% 43% 50% 28% 29% 31% Unfavorable 34 9 18 15 26 28 28 Mixed 22 23 24 26 28 29 26 Hvn't hrd enough 10 10 14 9 17 13 15 REFUSED - - 1 - - 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 16 Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Favorable 39 44 43 35 40 38 39 Unfavorable 22 22 24 27 24 27 29 Mixed 25 23 22 24 25 27 22 Havn't hrd enough 12 10 11 13 10 8 11 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 1 -
7. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Likely Favorable 21% 30% 14% 24% 26% 17% 25% Unfavorable 18 8 27 13 20 16 21 Mixed 13 12 12 18 14 12 15 Hvn't hrd enough 47 48 47 45 39 55 38 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 25% 10% 23% 16% 27% 30% 22% Unfavorable 33 14 20 14 15 15 16 Mixed 14 11 7 14 17 17 14 Hvn't hrd enough 28 63 50 54 39 38 48 REFUSED - 2 1 1 2 - -
TREND: Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 16 Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Favorable 21 23 22 23 29 28 26 Unfavorable 18 14 13 12 8 8 7 Mixed 13 12 11 11 9 9 9 Haven't heard enough 47 50 53 52 52 54 56 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
8a. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 54% 26% 81% 47% 51% 57% Swann 34 61 13 34 38 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 4 1 1 DK/NA 10 12 6 13 9 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 53% 75% 51% 65% 43% 48% 44% Swann 38 11 34 24 44 39 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 2 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 4 2 1 - 1 - DK/NA 6 10 11 8 12 11 11
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Aug 16 Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Rendell 54 55 55 47 48 48 47 Swann 34 31 33 37 36 35 34 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 10 11 10 12 14 14 15
8. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican for whom would you vote?(If undecided q8a) As of today, do you lean more toward Rendell or Swann? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 57% 24% 85% 57% 53% 62% Swann 38 71 12 34 42 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - DK/NA 4 4 2 5 4 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 58% 83% 57% 67% 46% 50% 47% Swann 36 12 37 28 48 45 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 2 - - - DK/NA 5 4 5 4 5 5 2
9a. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, Lynn Swann the Republican, and Marakay Rogers the Green party candidate for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 53% 27% 78% 42% 50% 55% Swann 32 59 12 29 37 27 Rogers 4 2 4 10 4 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 - DK/NA 10 12 5 15 7 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 51% 76% 46% 63% 42% 49% 43% Swann 35 11 32 24 46 34 40 Rogers 4 4 7 3 4 4 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 - 2 1 DK/NA 8 8 12 9 8 11 11
9. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, Lynn Swann the Republican and Marakay Rogers the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q9a) As of today, do you lean more toward Rendell, Swann or Rogers? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 54% 24% 83% 46% 50% 58% Swann 37 68 12 35 42 31 Rogers 5 2 4 11 4 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 5 1 8 3 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 54% 81% 50% 64% 43% 48% 44% Swann 37 15 39 28 48 42 45 Rogers 4 1 6 5 4 5 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 5 3 5 5 3
9b. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... ER LS Tot Voters Voters Made up 65% 68% 65% Might change 34 31 35 DK/NA 1 1 -
10. Is your vote more for Rendell or more against Swann?
RENDELL VOTERS Reg Likely For Rendell 85% 83% Against Swann 10 10 DK/NA 6 7
11. Is your vote more for Swann or more against Rendell?
SWANN VOTERS.. Reg Likely For Swann 45% 47 Against Rendell 49 49 DK/NA 6 4
12. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Likely Yes/Deserves to be reelected 54% 32% 75% 49% 53% 56% 54% No/Does NOT 36 59 17 39 38 33 40 DK/NA 10 10 9 11 8 11 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves to be reelected 48% 77% 53% 70% 41% 44% 45% No/Does NOT 43 15 32 23 48 44 47 DK/NA 9 8 15 7 11 13 8
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Aug 16 Jun 22 May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 54 53 55 46 49 49 48 Does not deserve 36 34 33 40 37 40 41 DK/NA 10 13 12 14 14 12 11