Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * September 26, 2006 * Casey Leads Santorum 51 - 39% - Quinnipiac University

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September 26, 2006 - Casey Leads Santorum 51 - 39% Among Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Incumbent's Momentum Has Stalled

Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. has regained his momentum in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race and now leads incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 51 - 39 percent among likely voters, with 4 percent for Green party candidate Carl Romanelli and 5 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 48 - 42 percent likely voter lead for Casey in an August 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Republicans back Sen. Santorum 77 - 17 percent, while Democrats back Casey 85 - 8 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 56 - 31 percent. In this survey, 17 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they still might change their mind.
Among likely voters who back Casey, 55 percent say their vote is mainly against Santorum, while 40 percent say their vote is mainly for the Democrat.
"Sen. Rick Santorum's comeback momentum has been stopped dead in the water. Santorum's attack ads against Casey have failed to spark voters' support, and 50 percent of voters say the Senator does not deserve re-election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Casey, just like his father, is attracting a significant number of Republican votes - perhaps enough to make it hard for Santorum to make it back to Washington."
Among Santorum supporters, 26 percent cite his experience as the main reason they are voting for him, with only 11 percent citing his support for the war in Iraq and 26 percent saying his stand on other issues is key to their support.
Among Casey backers, 40 percent say the main reason they back him is because "it's just time for a change," with only 11 percent citing his opposition to the war in Iraq.
Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a negative 35 - 40 percent favorability rating, with 16 percent mixed and 8 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Casey gets a 39 - 18 percent favorability among likely voters, with 26 percent mixed and 16 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"The significant thing in this poll is that Casey's favorability rating is increasing as more voters get to know him," Richards said. President's Approval
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 59 - 38 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing overall.
Voters say 48 - 32 percent that the U.S. is losing the war in Iraq, but say 43 - 37 percent that the U.S. is winning the war on worldwide terrorism.
"As long as President Bush's approval rating remains under 40 percent in Pennsylvania, he will continue to be a drag on Sen. Rick Santorum's re-election bid and will be of no help to GOP gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann," Richards said.
From September 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 933 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
7. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q7) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey or Santorum? This table includes Leaners. (Two way matchup).
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 54% 18% 88% 60% 52% 55% Santorum 40 77 8 31 42 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 4 3 8 5 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 60% 75% 51% 53% 48% 53% 44% Santorum 30 19 37 43 48 43 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 - - - 1 DK/NA 8 5 11 4 4 4 5
TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey or Santorum? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 Casey 54 51 Santorum 40 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - DK/NA 6 5
8. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, Rick Santorum the Republican, and Carl Romanelli the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote?(If undecided q8) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey, Santorum or Romanelli? This table includes Leaners. (Three way matchup).
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 51% 17% 85% 56% 50% 53% Santorum 39 77 8 31 41 37 Romanelli 4 2 1 7 5 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 5 5 4 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 57% 75% 47% 48% 47% 53% 41% Santorum 32 18 39 43 47 42 48 Romanelli 3 3 6 2 3 1 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 5 8 6 2 4 4
TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, Rick Santorum the Republican, and Carl Romanelli the Green Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey, Santorum or Romanelli? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 Casey 51 48 Santorum 39 42 Romanelli 4 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 5 5
8a. (If candidate choice q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS CHOOSING CAND Q8 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE BC RS Tot Voters Voters Made up 82% 86% 81% Might change 17 13 18 DK/NA 1 1 1
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 Made up 82 72 Might change 17 27 DK/NA 1 1
9. (Santorum q8)Is your vote more for Santorum or more against Casey?
LIKELY VOTERS CHOOSING SANTORUM Q8.. Tot Rep Ind Men Wom For Santorum 85% 87% 79% 87% 83% Against Casey 12 9 19 12 11 DK/NA 3 4 2 1 6
TREND: Is your vote more for Santorum or more against Casey?
LIKELY VOTERS.. Santorum Voters Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 For Santorum 85 82% Against Casey 12 13 DK/NA 3 5
10. (Casey q8)Is your vote more for Casey or more against Santorum?
LIKELY VOTERS CHOOSING CASEY Q8.... Tot Dem Ind Men Wom For Casey 40% 41% 40% 31% 50% Against Santorum 55 54 54 63 46 DK/NA 5 5 6 6 4
TREND: Is your vote more for Casey or more against Santorum?
LIKELY VOTERS Casey Voters Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 For Casey 40 43% Against Santorum 55 51 DK/NA 5 6
11a. (Casey q8) What is the main reason you support Casey? Is it because -- A) it's just time for a change, B) of his personal qualities, C) his stand on the war in Iraq, D) his stand on issues, other than the war in Iraq, E) because he is the son of former governor Robert Casey?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Time for change 40% 40% 37% 42% 43% 37% B) Personal qualities 12 9 14 9 12 13 C) Stand on Iraq 11 6 12 14 11 12 D) Stand/other issues 16 17 17 15 15 17 E) Son Robert Casey 4 4 4 7 4 5 OTHER(VOL) 12 9 13 11 12 11 DK/NA 4 15 3 2 2 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl A) Time for change 35% 56% 33% 35% 41% 38% 39% B) Personal qualities 12 11 17 5 21 12 15 C) Stand on Iraq 14 7 8 16 7 13 10 D) Stand/other issues 15 6 15 19 18 26 18 E) Son Robert Casey 8 11 6 2 2 - 1 OTHER(VOL) 13 4 9 20 8 12 13 DK/NA 3 4 13 2 4 - 4
11b. What is the main reason you support Santorum? Is it because -- A) of his experience, B) of his personal qualities, C) his stand on the war in Iraq, D) his stand on issues, other than the war in Iraq, E) because he works well with President Bush?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Experience 26% 25% 50% 17% 23% 30% B) Personal qualities 15 12 16 24 16 14 C) Stand on Iraq 11 12 10 10 14 8 D) Stand/other issues 26 26 11 29 28 23 E) Works well with Bush 11 14 8 5 12 11 OTHER(VOL) 9 9 - 14 7 11 DK/NA 2 2 4 - 1 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl A) Experience 49% 36% 25% 22% 25% 24% 20% B) Personal qualities 8 18 16 14 26 20 12 C) Stand on Iraq 14 16 12 8 9 12 12 D) Stand/other issues 20 21 29 33 15 26 25 E) Works well with Bush 6 5 11 10 9 6 19 OTHER(VOL) 3 - 5 12 8 12 11 DK/NA - 5 3 - 8 - 2
12. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 35% 66% 9% 25% 39% 30% Unfavorable 40 12 63 49 41 38 Mixed 16 17 15 17 12 21 Hvn't hrd enough 8 4 11 9 7 10 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 29% 19% 38% 33% 34% 40% 44% Unfavorable 50 43 30 45 36 39 34 Mixed 9 19 21 15 21 15 16 Hvn't hrd enough 11 18 10 4 8 3 5 REFUSED - 1 1 2 1 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 Favorable 35 34 Unfavorable 40 40 Mixed 16 17 Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 REFUSED 1 -
12. Is your opinion of Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 14% 65% 41% 36% 43% Unfavorable 18 34 2 16 20 16 Mixed 26 28 23 28 27 25 Hvn't hrd enough 16 23 8 15 17 15 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 38% 50% 40% 34% 38% 47% 35% Unfavorable 16 6 19 20 22 16 23 Mixed 26 32 23 28 26 20 26 Hvn't hrd enough 20 12 17 17 14 15 15 REFUSED - 1 1 2 - 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 Favorable 39 31 Unfavorable 18 17 Mixed 26 21 Hvn't hrd enough 16 31 REFUSED 1 -
13. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves reelection 40% 76% 11% 31% 42% 38% No/Does not 50 16 80 60 50 50 DK/NA 10 8 9 10 8 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Deserves reelection 34% 23% 36% 43% 44% 40% 50% No/Does not 58 65 42 51 46 49 44 DK/NA 9 12 21 6 11 11 6
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 Deserves reelection 40 42 Does not deserve 50 49 DK/NA 10 9
14. Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too liberal 6% 4% 7% 6% 5% 7% Too conservative 42 19 56 56 44 39 About right 37 69 14 27 39 34 DK/NA 16 9 23 11 12 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Too liberal 4% 10% 6% 3% 10% 7% 6% Too conservative 37 56 37 55 33 30 34 About right 35 19 34 32 44 45 47 DK/NA 23 14 23 10 13 17 13
15. Do you think Bob Casey Jr. is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too liberal 27% 56% 4% 19% 30% 24% Too conservative 7 4 9 9 7 7 About right 48 21 74 51 48 48 DK/NA 18 19 13 21 16 21 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Too liberal 25% 10% 26% 28% 33% 30% 33% Too conservative 7 13 5 7 4 5 6 About right 44 64 44 47 50 53 41 DK/NA 24 12 24 18 13 13 19
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as State Treasurer?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 50% 31% 68% 55% 52% 48% Disapprove 20 33 7 19 21 19 DK/NA 29 36 25 26 27 33 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 56% 65% 49% 46% 50% 49% 45% Disapprove 25 4 19 17 25 18 28 DK/NA 19 31 32 36 25 33 27
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 38% 71% 8% 29% 39% 36% Disapprove 59 25 89 69 57 62 DK/NA 3 4 3 2 4 2
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 34% 66% 7% 25% 36% 31% Disapprove 62 30 90 69 60 63 DK/NA 4 4 3 6 4 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 Approve 34 34 Disapprove 62 61 DK/NA 4 5
19. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 37% 68% 10% 30% 39% 34% Wrong thing 58 27 86 67 58 59 DK/NA 5 6 4 3 3 8
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 Right thing 37 38 Wrong thing 58 58 DK/NA 5 4
20. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Increase troops 22% 31% 14% 21% 28% 15% Keep same amount 20 32 12 15 22 18 Decrease troops 24 18 30 25 21 28 Remove all troops 26 11 40 27 23 29 DK/NA 8 8 4 13 7 10
21. Is the United States winning or losing the war in Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Winning 32% 60% 9% 25% 35% 29% Losing 48 23 72 56 48 48 DK/NA 19 17 19 20 16 23
22. Is the United States winning or losing the war on worldwide terrorism?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Winning 43% 68% 23% 37% 49% 36% Losing 37 16 52 46 36 38 DK/NA 20 16 25 17 15 26