Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * April 26, 2007 * Giuliani Now Leads Clinton In - Quinnipiac University

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April 26, 2007 - Giuliani Now Leads Clinton In All Three Swing States; Gore Runs Best Vs. Gop, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; FLORIDA: Giuliani Up 49 - 41; Clinton, McCain Tied at 45; OHIO: Giuliani Over Clinton 46 - 41; McCain at 44 to Clinton's 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Giuliani Tops Clinton 47 - 43; McCain Up 45 - 43

Printable PDF version Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and other Democrats in the 2008 presidential race in three critical states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.
But former Vice President Al Gore, who is not yet a candidate, runs better against Republican challengers in most Swing State matchups than Sen. Clinton or Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
Florida - Giuliani leads Clinton 49 - 41 percent, compared to 50 - 40 percent in an April 2 poll. Gore trails Giuliani 47 - 43 percent. Ohio - Giuliani leads Clinton 46 - 41 percent, compared to March 22 when Clinton was up 46 - 43 percent. Gore trails Giuliani 47 - 39 percent. Pennsylvania - Giuliani leads Clinton 47 - 43 percent, compared to 46 - 42 percent March 29. Gore ties Giuliani 44 - 44 percent.
"Mayor Rudolph Giuliani remains the front-runner, but he and the entire Democratic field should wonder if Al Gore will become an inconvenient truth in the 2008 presidential race and go for the biggest Oscar of them all," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"We might want to start calling him Swing State Rudy because of his ability to draw support in these key states and across demographic lines. But before he gets too confident, the mayor needs to realize he has lost some of the lead he had in earlier polls against the other Republican candidates," Brown added.
"And in the GOP race, a man who's been out of politics for six years and wasn't that well known to begin with and isn't yet a candidate, Fred Thompson, is doing surprisingly well. If Thompson gets in the race, he looks like he has the potential to be a major factor in the battle for the GOP nomination. His favorable/unfavorable ratio among Republicans is high."
Florida Findings
Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
Gore tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 46 - 43 percent; Gore beats Thompson 48 - 36 percent; Clinton and McCain are tied at 45 - 45 percent; Clinton bests Thompson 48 - 38 percent; Giuliani beats Obama 49 - 38 percent; Obama and McCain are tied at 41 - 41 percent; Obama tops Thompson 42 - 35 percent.
In a Democratic primary matchup, Clinton gets 36 percent, followed by 15 percent for Gore, 13 percent for Obama and 11 percent for John Edwards.
Among Republicans, Giuliani gets 38 percent, with 15 percent for McCain, 7 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 6 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 5 percent for Thompson.
By a 58 - 24 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
47 - 44 percent for Clinton; 47 - 27 percent for McCain; 42 - 17 percent for Obama; 50 - 38 percent for Gore; 44 - 24 percent for Edwards; 63 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion; 66 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
Ohio Results
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
McCain beats Gore 46 - 39 percent; Gore beats Thompson 44 - 35 percent; McCain edges Clinton 44 - 42 percent; Clinton tops Thompson 45 - 35 percent; Giuliani bests Obama 45 - 37 percent; McCain tops Obama 42 - 36 percent; Obama beats Thompson 44 - 31 percent.
Clinton leads in a Democratic primary matchup with 37 percent, followed by 17 percent for Edwards, 14 percent for Obama and 11 percent for Gore.
The Republican primary race is close with 23 percent for Giuliani, 21 percent for McCain, 9 percent for Gingrich, 8 percent for Thompson and 6 percent for Romney.
Ohio voters give Giuliani a 54 - 22 percent favorability rating. For other contenders, favorability ratings are:
47 - 43 percent for Clinton; 44 - 41 percent for Gore; 47 - 22 percent for McCain; 41 - 21 percent for Obama; 47 - 24 percent for Edwards; 69 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion; 73 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion. Pennsylvania Results
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
Gore tops McCain 45 - 42 percent; Gore leads Thompson 48 - 34 percent; McCain edges Clinton 45 - 43 percent; Clinton tops Thompson 47 - 36 percent; Giuliani beats Obama 45 - 41 percent; Obama edges McCain 43 - 41 percent; Obama beats Thompson 45 - 33 percent.
In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 36 percent, with 14 percent for Gore and Obama and 13 percent for Edwards.
Giuliani leads Republicans with 29 percent, followed by McCain with 17 percent, Gingrich with 10 percent, Thompson at 6 percent and Romney at 5 percent.
Giuliani gets a 57 - 22 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
48 - 42 percent for Clinton; 51 - 38 percent for Gore; 48 - 24 percent for McCain; 46 - 17 percent for Obama; 49 - 22 percent for Edwards; 66 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion; 73 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
"Sen. McCain's recent strong public support for the Iraq war appears not to have hurt him, and he's doing better in some cases," Brown said.
"Voters can either love Sen. Clinton or leave her. Her support is very deep, but narrow. Democrats view her favorably 8 - 1, but she turns off independents . So she leads the Democratic primary field, but struggles against Republicans.
"Sen. Obama may have matched Sen. Clinton in fundraising, but he hasn't been able to close the gap among primary voters, where she leads by more than 2 - 1 in all three states. He is still an unknown to more than a third of voters - which gives him an opportunity to move up."
"Perhaps absence does make the heart grow fonder. Vice President Gore generally runs best against any of the Republican candidates. Whatever the reason, should Gore get in, he could reshape the race for the Democratic presidential nomination."
From April 17 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
987 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 388 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent, and 371 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent; 1,083 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, including 350 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent, and 409 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent; 988 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 425 Republicans and 425 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS FL OH PA Biden 2% 1% 2% Clark - - - Clinton 36 37 36 Dodd - - - Edwards 11 17 13 Gore 15 11 14 Gravel - - - Kucinich 2 3 1 Obama 13 14 14 Richardson 2 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 DK/NA 14 14 16
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Brownback - 2% 1% Gilmore - - - Gingrich 6 9 10 Giuliani 38 23 29 Hagel - - 1 Huckabee - - 2 Hunter - - - McCain 15 21 17 Pataki 1 - 1 Paul - - - Romney 7 6 5 Tancredo 1 1 - Thompson, F. 5 8 6 Thompson, T. 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 21 23 21
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS......... Apr 2 FL......................Tot Men Wom 2007 Biden 2% 2% 2% 1% Clark - 1 - 1 Clinton 36 33 38 36 Dodd - 1 - - Edwards 11 13 9 11 Gore 15 18 13 16 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 2 3 1 1 Obama 13 10 15 13 Richardson 2 2 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 14 12 16 14 Mar 22 OH......................Tot Men Wom 2007 Biden 1% 1% 1% 1% Clark - - - - Clinton 37 22 47 32 Dodd - - - - Edwards 17 21 15 11 Gore 11 17 6 14 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 3 6 2 3 Obama 14 16 12 22 Richardson 1 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 DK/NA 14 13 16 15 Mar 29 PA......................Tot Men Wom 2007 Biden 2% - 3% 4% Clark - - - - Clinton 36 29 41 36 Dodd - - - - Edwards 13 15 11 9 Gore 14 19 11 13 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 1 1 1 - Obama 14 16 13 17 Richardson 2 3 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 14 17 16
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................. WtBrnAgn Apr 2 FL......................Tot Men Wom Evnglcl 2007 Brownback - - 1% - 1% Gilmore - - - - - Gingrich 6 8 4 9 11 Giuliani 38 40 36 33 35 Hagel - - - - - Huckabee - - - - - Hunter - - 1 - - McCain 15 18 12 20 15 Pataki 1 2 - - - Paul - - - - 1 Romney 7 7 6 4 5 Tancredo 1 2 - 1 - Thompson, F. 5 6 3 5 6 Thompson, T. 1 1 - 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 - 3 DK/NA 21 13 31 24 19 WtBrnAgn Mar 22 OH......................Tot Men Wom Evnglcl 2007 Brownback 2% 4% 1% 1% - Gilmore - - 1 1 1 Gingrich 9 13 5 11 8 Giuliani 23 17 30 16 31 Hagel - - 1 - 1 Huckabee - 1 - - 1 Hunter - 1 - - - McCain 21 23 19 29 20 Pataki - - - - - Paul - - - - - Romney 6 6 6 5 6 Tancredo 1 1 - - 1 Thompson, F. 8 11 4 7 6 Thompson, T. - - - - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 5 5 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 23 19 26 23 23 WtBrnAgn Mar 29 PA......................Tot Men Wom Evnglcl 2007 Brownback 1% - 1% 2% 1% Gilmore - - - - - Gingrich 10 12 9 10 7 Giuliani 29 28 29 30 33 Hagel 1 2 1 - - Huckabee 2 3 - 3 - Hunter - - 1 1 1 McCain 17 16 17 16 18 Pataki 1 1 - - 1 Paul - - - - - Romney 5 6 4 4 5 Tancredo - - - 1 - Thompson, F. 6 9 4 4 6 Thompson, T. 1 1 2 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 1 DK/NA 21 16 28 23 22
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Clinton 41% 41% 43% Giuliani 49 46 47 Obama 38% 37% 41% Giuliani 49 45 45 Gore 43% 39% 44% Giuliani 47 47 44 Clinton 45% 42% 43% McCain 45 44 45 Obama 41% 36% 43% McCain 41 42 41 Gore 46% 39% 45% McCain 43 46 42 Clinton 48% 45% 47% Thompson 38 35 36 Obama 42% 44% 45% Thompson 35 31 33 Gore 48% 44% 48% Thompson 36 35 34
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Clinton 41% 41% 43% Giuliani 49 46 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 9 6
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 41% 3% 79% 41% 33% 48% 26% Giuliani 49 91 13 44 58 40 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 2 3 2 DK/NA 7 5 6 10 5 9 5 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 41% 8% 81% 29% 34% 47% 31% Giuliani 46 83 10 54 54 39 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 2 3 DK/NA 9 5 7 12 6 12 9 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 43% 8% 78% 35% 39% 47% 26% Giuliani 47 86 16 46 52 43 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 7 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 4 5 9 6 7 7
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Obama 38% 37% 41% Giuliani 49 45 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 10 13 12
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 38% 6% 69% 42% 34% 41% 20% Giuliani 49 85 20 43 57 42 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 10 9 9 12 6 14 11 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 37% 11% 70% 28% 33% 41% 25% Giuliani 45 76 16 48 51 39 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 3 5 3 5 DK/NA 13 10 8 18 9 17 14 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 41% 8% 71% 38% 37% 44% 22% Giuliani 45 79 16 42 52 38 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 2 2 1 DK/NA 12 11 11 14 8 15 17
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Gore 43% 39% 44 Giuliani 47 47 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 10 9
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 43% 4% 82% 43% 39% 46% 25% Giuliani 47 91 12 40 54 40 66 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 4 4 12 4 10 6 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 39% 8% 73% 30% 35% 43% 28% Giuliani 47 84 17 50 52 43 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 2 3 DK/NA 10 6 7 14 8 11 10 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 44% 11% 75% 37% 43% 44% 23% Giuliani 44 81 15 44 48 41 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 2 3 1 DK/NA 9 6 7 12 6 11 11
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
........................FL OH PA Clinton 45% 42% 43% McCain 45 44 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 6 10 8
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 45% 7% 81% 46% 39% 50% 26% McCain 45 90 11 37 52 39 68 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 4 3 2 DK/NA 6 3 5 10 4 7 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 42% 8% 79% 32% 33% 49% 30% McCain 44 83 12 49 54 36 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 3 3 2 1 DK/NA 10 6 7 14 8 12 10 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 43% 6% 79% 36% 35% 51% 25% McCain 45 86 13 44 53 37 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 6 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 DK/NA 8 6 6 11 7 10 11
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
........................FL OH PA Obama 41% 36% 43% McCain 41 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 DK/NA 13 16 13
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 41% 9% 72% 47% 38% 44% 23% McCain 41 80 10 33 49 33 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 3 3 4 DK/NA 13 10 13 14 8 17 11 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 36% 10% 64% 32% 32% 40% 24% McCain 42 73 18 45 51 34 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 3 4 4 5 DK/NA 16 14 12 18 11 20 17 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 43% 9% 71% 43% 37% 48% 26% McCain 41 77 16 35 51 31 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 DK/NA 13 12 10 16 8 17 17
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Gore 46% 39% 45% McCain 43 46 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 10 9
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 46% 7% 85% 46% 42% 50% 25% McCain 43 87 10 36 50 37 66 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 5 3 3 1 DK/NA 7 4 3 11 4 9 6 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 39% 6% 75% 30% 34% 42% 29% McCain 46 86 12 52 52 41 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 10 6 9 13 7 13 9 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 45% 10% 79% 40% 42% 48% 23% McCain 42 80 12 42 48 37 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 5 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 9 7 7 10 7 10 12
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Clinton 48% 45% 47% Thompson 38 35 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 9 14 12
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 48% 9% 85% 50% 41% 54% 29% Thompson 38 81 7 27 47 30 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 6 4 3 2 DK/NA 9 8 5 14 7 11 9 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 45% 12% 82% 36% 37% 52% 35% Thompson 35 74 7 38 43 29 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 4 2 2 DK/NA 14 12 8 19 13 15 17 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 47% 10% 85% 40% 41% 54% 29% Thompson 36 73 5 36 44 28 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 4 3 5 DK/NA 12 12 7 15 9 14 15
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Obama 42% 44% 45 Thompson 35 31 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 DK/NA 17 20 17
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 42% 9% 72% 47% 37% 45% 25% Thompson 35 74 6 27 45 27 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 8 4 4 5 DK/NA 17 14 16 17 11 22 17 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 44% 14% 72% 41% 39% 48% 31% Thompson 31 63 8 30 39 25 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 4 2 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 4 3 5 2 4 DK/NA 20 22 12 23 16 23 22 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 45% 14% 75% 42% 43% 48% 30% Thompson 33 66 8 32 40 26 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 3 2 DK/NA 17 17 14 19 13 22 23
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Gore 48% 44% 48% Thompson 36 35 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 12 15 14
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 48% 8% 87% 49% 45% 51% 30% Thompson 36 78 5 27 43 29 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 2 3 2 DK/NA 12 12 6 17 8 15 12 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 44% 9% 80% 39% 39% 49% 32% Thompson 35 76 7 34 40 31 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 5 3 2 DK/NA 15 14 8 20 14 16 18 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 48% 15% 82% 41% 47% 49% 31% Thompson 34 69 6 32 38 30 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 14 12 9 20 10 17 20
12-19. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
FL OH PA - Hillary Clinton Favorable 47% 47% 48% Unfavorable 44 43 42 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 7 REFUSED 3 2 3 - John Edwards Favorable 44% 47% 49% Unfavorable 24 24 22 Hvn't hrd enough 29 27 27 REFUSED 3 1 2 - Rudy Giuliani Favorable 58% 54% 57% Unfavorable 24 22 22 Hvn't hrd enough 15 22 18 REFUSED 3 2 3 - Al Gore Favorable 50% 44% 51% Unfavorable 38 41 38 Hvn't hrd enough 10 12 10 REFUSED 3 3 2 - John McCain Favorable 47% 47% 48% Unfavorable 27 22 24 Hvn't hrd enough 23 28 24 REFUSED 3 3 4 - Barack Obama Favorable 42% 41% 46% Unfavorable 17 21 17 Hvn't hrd enough 39 36 35 REFUSED 1 2 3 - Mitt Romney Favorable 17% 15% 13% Unfavorable 15 11 13 Hvn't hrd enough 66 73 73 REFUSED 2 1 2 - Fred Thompson Favorable 25% 21% 23% Unfavorable 10 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 63 69 66 REFUSED 2 1 2
12-19. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him? 12. - Hillary Clinton
FL OH PA Favorable 47% 47% 48% Unfavorable 44 43 42 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 7 REFUSED 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 12% 81% 48% 40% 53% 30% Unfavorable 44 82 10 39 52 37 64 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 7 7 4 7 6 REFUSED 3 2 2 6 4 2 1 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 15% 80% 39% 39% 53% 35% Unfavorable 43 79 13 48 51 37 54 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 6 11 8 8 9 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 48% 16% 79% 42% 40% 55% 32% Unfavorable 42 77 11 48 49 37 59 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 7 7 9 6 7 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 2
13. - John Edwards
FL OH PA Favorable 44% 47% 49% Unfavorable 24 24 22 Hvn't hrd enough 29 27 27 REFUSED 3 1 2 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 44% 23% 65% 48% 41% 47% 36% Unfavorable 24 45 8 18 30 19 32 Hvn't hrd enough 29 28 24 32 26 31 27 REFUSED 3 5 2 2 3 3 5 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 29% 67% 45% 43% 51% 47% Unfavorable 24 44 10 22 33 17 26 Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 22 32 23 31 26 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 49% 34% 65% 46% 46% 52% 47% Unfavorable 22 39 8 19 28 15 24 Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 26 32 24 31 28 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2
14. - Rudy Giuliani
FL OH PA Favorable 58% 54% 57% Unfavorable 24 22 22 Hvn't hrd enough 15 22 18 REFUSED 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 58% 83% 37% 57% 64% 53% 65% Unfavorable 24 3 43 25 20 27 16 Hvn't hrd enough 15 11 16 15 12 17 17 REFUSED 3 3 4 2 3 3 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 54% 70% 35% 62% 58% 51% 56% Unfavorable 22 9 38 17 23 21 19 Hvn't hrd enough 22 18 25 19 17 26 23 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 57% 76% 42% 55% 60% 55% 64% Unfavorable 22 10 34 23 24 20 10 Hvn't hrd enough 18 11 21 18 13 22 22 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 3 3
15. - Al Gore
FL OH PA Favorable 50% 44% 51% Unfavorable 38 41 38 Hvn't hrd enough 10 12 10 REFUSED 3 3 2 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 50% 13% 79% 57% 45% 53% 33% Unfavorable 38 77 8 30 44 33 57 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 11 9 8 11 6 REFUSED 3 2 2 5 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 44% 13% 73% 43% 42% 47% 34% Unfavorable 41 78 14 41 48 36 51 Hvn't hrd enough 12 7 11 14 8 15 11 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 51% 23% 77% 46% 48% 53% 32% Unfavorable 38 68 11 43 40 36 54 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 12 7 10 10 13 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 2 1
16. - John McCain
FL OH PA Favorable 47% 47% 48% Unfavorable 27 22 24 Hvn't hrd enough 23 28 24 REFUSED 3 3 4 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 71% 27% 49% 53% 42% 60% Unfavorable 27 7 43 29 25 28 17 Hvn't hrd enough 23 19 27 18 18 27 20 REFUSED 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 64% 32% 52% 58% 38% 53% Unfavorable 22 10 34 19 20 23 17 Hvn't hrd enough 28 23 31 27 18 37 28 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 4 2 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 48% 70% 33% 47% 54% 43% 52% Unfavorable 24 11 36 25 25 24 17 Hvn't hrd enough 24 16 29 22 17 29 28 REFUSED 4 3 2 6 4 3 3
17. - Barack Obama
FL OH PA Favorable 42% 41% 46% Unfavorable 17 21 17 Hvn't hrd enough 39 36 35 REFUSED 1 2 3 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 25% 59% 47% 37% 46% 33% Unfavorable 17 29 5 18 24 11 23 Hvn't hrd enough 39 45 35 33 37 41 43 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 41% 27% 53% 42% 38% 44% 30% Unfavorable 21 35 12 18 26 17 29 Hvn't hrd enough 36 35 35 37 34 37 39 REFUSED 2 2 - 3 3 1 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 46% 28% 57% 52% 45% 46% 34% Unfavorable 17 26 7 18 18 15 21 Hvn't hrd enough 35 42 35 26 33 36 42 REFUSED 3 3 1 4 3 2 3
18. - Mitt Romney
FL OH PA Favorable 17% 15% 13% Unfavorable 15 11 13 Hvn't hrd enough 66 73 73 REFUSED 2 1 2 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 17% 28% 11% 9% 21% 12% 19% Unfavorable 15 8 21 18 16 13 12 Hvn't hrd enough 66 62 66 70 60 72 67 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 15% 28% 8% 13% 20% 11% 20% Unfavorable 11 7 16 10 11 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 73 64 75 76 67 78 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 13% 22% 6% 10% 14% 11% 14% Unfavorable 13 9 15 15 16 10 6 Hvn't hrd enough 73 68 78 73 67 78 78 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 2
19. - Fred Thompson
FL OH PA Favorable 25% 21% 23% Unfavorable 10 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 63 69 66 REFUSED 2 1 2 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 25% 41% 15% 18% 31% 19% 32% Unfavorable 10 2 17 11 9 10 4 Hvn't hrd enough 63 55 67 66 56 70 62 REFUSED 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 21% 36% 10% 21% 29% 14% 22% Unfavorable 10 3 15 11 11 9 8 Hvn't hrd enough 69 61 74 67 59 76 68 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 23% 36% 13% 22% 27% 19% 25% Unfavorable 10 4 16 9 11 8 2 Hvn't hrd enough 66 58 70 66 60 71 70 REFUSED 2 1 - 3 1 2 2
20. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
FL OH PA Democrat 45% 44% 45% Republican 33 32 31 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 15 17 18 DK/NA 7 7 7
20. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrat 45% 4% 88% 43% 40% 50% 24% Republican 33 82 1 17 39 28 57 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 15 11 8 27 16 14 13 DK/NA 7 3 3 12 6 8 6 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrat 44% 3% 91% 30% 36% 50% 32% Republican 32 79 2 27 38 27 44 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 17 13 6 31 19 15 19 DK/NA 7 5 1 13 7 8 6 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrat 45% 7% 83% 38% 40% 49% 25% Republican 31 70 2 24 39 23 45 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 18 19 12 23 17 19 20 DK/NA 7 5 2 15 5 9 10
21. (If party chosen q20) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
PARTY CHOSEN Q20........ PARTY CHOICE Q20 FL......................Tot Dem Rep Made up 60% 60% 59% Might change 38 36 40 DK/NA 3 3 2 PARTY CHOSEN Q20........ PARTY CHOICE Q20 OH......................Tot Dem Rep Made up 51% 56% 45% Might change 46 42 52 DK/NA 2 2 3 PARTY CHOSEN Q20........ PARTY CHOICE Q20 PA......................Tot Dem Rep Made up 54% 59% 47% Might change 45 40 52 DK/NA 2 1 2
22a. (If 'democrat' q20) Among the Republican candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, or Tommy Thompson?
DEMOCRAT CHOSEN Q20 FL......................Tot Men Wom Brownback - - - Gilmore 1 1 - Gingrich 1 2 1 Giuliani 24 23 25 Hagel 4 5 3 Huckabee 1 - 1 Hunter - - - McCain 22 24 21 Pataki 3 6 2 Paul - - - Romney 3 3 4 Tancredo - - - Thompson, F. 4 4 4 Thompson, T. 2 5 - WLDN'T VT FOR REP(VOL) 17 12 20 OTHER(VOL) - - - DK/NA 18 15 20
22a. (If 'democrat' q20) Among the Republican candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, or Tommy Thompson?
DEMOCRAT CHOSEN Q20 OH......................Tot Men Wom Brownback - - - Gilmore 1 2 - Gingrich 1 2 1 Giuliani 30 25 32 Hagel 2 4 1 Huckabee - - 1 Hunter - - - McCain 25 29 23 Pataki 1 1 1 Paul - - - Romney 1 2 1 Tancredo - - - Thompson, F. 3 3 3 Thompson, T. 1 2 1 WLDN'T VT FOR REP(VOL) 19 19 19 OTHER(VOL) - - - DK/NA 15 11 17
22a. (If 'democrat' q20) Among the Republican candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, or Tommy Thompson?
DEMOCRAT CHOSEN Q20 PA......................Tot Men Wom Brownback - - - Gilmore - 1 - Gingrich 5 9 1 Giuliani 30 24 35 Hagel 3 3 3 Huckabee 2 4 1 Hunter - - - McCain 21 27 16 Pataki 1 1 2 Paul 1 2 1 Romney 3 3 3 Tancredo - - - Thompson, F. 4 3 5 Thompson, T. - - 1 WLDN'T VT FOR REP(VOL) 15 13 18 OTHER(VOL) - - - DK/NA 13 10 16
22b. (If 'republican' q20) Among the Democratic candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? -- Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama or Bill Richardson?
REPUBLICAN CHOSEN Q20........... WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Biden 5% 6% 3% 4% Clark 1 2 1 2 Clinton 7 5 8 5 Dodd 2 2 2 1 Edwards 16 14 19 19 Gore 9 11 6 9 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 1 1 - - Obama 17 14 20 20 Richardson 7 12 1 3 WLDN'T VT FOR DEM(VOL) 22 25 20 21 OTHER(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 13 7 20 14
22b. (If 'republican' q20) Among the Democratic candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? -- Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama or Bill Richardson?
REPUBLICAN CHOSEN Q20........... WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Biden 4% 4% 3% 5% Clark 1 1 1 1 Clinton 9 8 10 11 Dodd - - - - Edwards 17 13 21 19 Gore 9 12 5 10 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 2 1 4 1 Obama 18 18 17 11 Richardson 5 8 2 5 WLDN'T VT FOR DEM(VOL) 19 19 19 19 OTHER(VOL) - 1 - 1 DK/NA 16 14 18 16
22b. (If 'republican' q20) Among the Democratic candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? -- Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama or Bill Richardson?
REPUBLICAN CHOSEN Q20........... WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Biden 8% 8% 7% 3% Clark 1 1 - 1 Clinton 8 5 12 11 Dodd 1 1 1 3 Edwards 16 13 20 24 Gore 7 9 3 6 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 2 3 1 - Obama 18 19 17 18 Richardson 7 9 4 6 WLDN'T VT FOR DEM(VOL) 21 23 19 20 OTHER(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 11 8 16 8