Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * October 10, 2007 * Clinton Express Rolls Through - Quinnipiac University

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October 10, 2007 - Clinton Express Rolls Through Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds --- FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Giuliani 43; OHIO: Clinton 46 - Giuliani 40; PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 - Giuliani 42

Word format New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is overwhelming Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and the rest of the Democratic primary field, and slowly increasing her lead over New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican front-runner, in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.
Sen. Clinton's support appears to be as deep as it is wide. In Ohio, 74 percent of her supporters say they are not too likely or not likely at all to change their mind. In Florida, 59 percent of her supporters are unlikely to change their mind; in Pennsylvania it's 56 percent.
Giuliani voters are less committed, as no more than 39 percent in any state say they are unlikely to change their mind.
Clinton and Giuliani dominate their party primaries in each state, even though voters say Obama and Arizona Sen. John McCain are more principled in their decision-making.
Matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
Florida: Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 43 percent, breaking a 44 - 44 percent tie September 12; Ohio: Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 40 percent, compared to 47 - 40 percent September 6; Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Giuliani 48 - 42 percent, up from 46 - 44 percent August 23.
"The news just keeps getting better for Sen. Clinton. She has a Democratic primary lead over Sen. Obama ranging from 27 to 34 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and is widening her margin over the Republican hopefuls in each of those three critical states," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The candidates who trail Sen. Clinton and hope that they can pry voters away from her should wake up and smell the coffee. Not only is she far, far ahead, but a much greater share of her voters say they are unlikely to change their minds than those committed to other Democrats. This should not be any surprise. Sen. Clinton has been a favorite of Democratic activists for the past 15 years and benefits greatly from being Bill Clinton's wife - since he is probably the most popular Democrat in America," Brown added.
Many Democrats think Clinton has the nomination "locked up," 44 percent in Florida, 43 percent in Ohio and 31 percent in Pennsylvania.
Very few Republican voters think Giuliani has the nomination "locked up," 14 percent in Florida, 11 percent in Ohio and 15 percent in Pennsylvania.
"Mayor Giuliani's lead over his Republican counterparts remains stable, but the vast, vast majority of Republicans don't believe he has the nomination locked up, and even six in ten of his supporters say they are somewhat or very likely to change their mind," Brown said.
Florida Findings
Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
Clinton tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 48 - 39 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 48 - 37 percent; Giuliani bests Obama 42 - 39 percent and edges Edwards 43 - 41 percent; Obama beats Thompson 45 - 36 percent and Romney 43 - 36 percent, but trails McCain 41 - 39 percent; Edwards edges McCain 42 - 40 percent and beats Thompson 44 - 36 percent and Romney 47 - 33 percent.
In a Democratic primary, Clinton gets 51 percent, followed by 17 percent for Obama and 10 percent for John Edwards.
Among Republicans, Giuliani gets 27 percent, with 19 percent for Thompson, 17 percent for Romney and 8 percent for McCain.
By a 49 - 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
49 - 34 percent for Giuliani; 43 - 30 percent for McCain; 47 - 27 percent for Obama; 46 - 32 percent for Edwards; 29 - 24 percent for Thompson; 30 - 20 percent for Romney.
Ohio Results
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
Clinton beats McCain 48 - 38 percent, Thompson 50 -36 percent and Romney 51 - 34 percent; Obama tops Giuliani 44 - 38 percent, McCain 43 - 39 percent, Thompson 44 - 33 percent and Romney 47 - 31 percent; Edwards bests Giuliani 46 - 36 percent, McCain 46 - 35 percent, Thompson 48 - 31 percent and Romney 50 - 28 percent.
Clinton leads in a Democratic primary matchup with 47 percent, followed by 19 percent for Obama and 11 percent for Edwards.
In a Republican primary race, Giuliani gets 29 percent, with 17 percent for Thompson, 10 percent for McCain and 8 percent for Romney.
Ohio voters give Clinton a 49 - 42 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are:
42 - 33 percent for Giuliani; 40 - 28 percent for McCain; 45 - 26 percent for Obama; 47 - 26 percent for Edwards; 23 - 19 percent for Thompson; 19 - 22 percent for Romney. Pennsylvania Results
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
Clinton tops McCain 48 - 41 percent, Thompson 50 - 39 percent and Romney 49 - 37 percent; Giuliani edges Obama 45 - 43 percent and gets 44 percent to Edwards' 43 percent; Obama beats McCain 45 - 41 percent, Thompson 45 - 37 percent and Romney 49 - 33 percent; Edwards tops McCain 47 - 39 percent, Thompson 47 - 34 percent and Romney 49 - 32 percent.
In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 41 percent, with 14 percent for Obama and 11 percent for Edwards.
Giuliani leads Republicans with 32 percent, followed by 13 percent each for Thompson and McCain and 8 percent for Romney.
Clinton gets a 51 - 42 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
51 - 30 percent for Giuliani; 43 - 26 percent for McCain; 48 - 22 percent for Obama; 49 - 27 percent for Edwards; 26 - 21 percent for Thompson; 24 - 23 percent for Romney.
"Fred Thompson is chasing Giuliani in all three states, but his momentum seems to have slowed. Mitt Romney may be a household name in Iowa where he leads the polls, but in the Big 3 of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania he remains far back. He has picked up some support among Republicans in Florida, where he is the only candidate advertising on television," Brown said. Principled Decision Makers
In each state, Obama tops Clinton on the question of "principle," asking whether a candidate makes decisions based on what he or she thinks is right or based on what is popular with voters. Florida voters say 43 - 32 percent that Obama decides on principle rather than popularity; 40 - 34 percent in Ohio and 45 - 29 percent in Pennsylvania.
This compares to Clinton's "principle" scale, negative in each state: 42 - 49 percent in Florida, 39 - 52 percent in Ohio and 40 - 48 percent in Pennsylvania.
Among Republicans, McCain has a higher "principle" rating than Giuliani in each state. McCain's scale is 51 - 29 percent in Florida, 43 - 33 percent in Ohio and 49 - 29 percent in Pennsylvania.
Giuliani's "principle" scale is 43 - 42 percent in Florida, 40 - 40 percent in Ohio and 42 - 41 percent in Pennsylvania.
"Voters say they want politicians with principles, but they don't seem to vote for the candidates who have them," said Brown. "Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain are considered by far the most principled in their decision-making, but they are both far back in their races for their respective party nominations.
"When it comes to the front-runners, voters see Mayor Giuliani as more principled than Sen. Clinton."
From October 1 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
869 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent, including 345 Republicans and 337 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent; 946 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 321 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percent, and 357 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent; 878 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent, including 355 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent and 393 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS FL OH PA Biden 2% 2% 5% Clinton 51 47 41 Dodd - - - Edwards 10 11 11 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 2 3 Obama 17 19 14 Richardson 2 1 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 3 DK/NA 14 15 18
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Brownback 1% 1% - Giuliani 27 29 32 Huckabee 4 5 2 Hunter - 1 1 McCain 8 10 13 Paul 2 1 4 Romney 17 8 8 Tancredo 1 1 - Thompson,F. 19 17 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 16 22 20
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ........................FL Men Wom Biden 2% 2% 1% Clinton 51 46 54 Dodd - - - Edwards 10 17 6 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 2 1 Obama 17 12 20 Richardson 2 4 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 14 14 14 ........................OH Men Wom Biden 2% 3% 1% Clinton 47 41 50 Dodd - - - Edwards 11 13 10 Gravel - - - Kucinich 2 3 2 Obama 19 22 17 Richardson 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 15 13 16 ........................PA Men Wom Biden 5% 8% 2% Clinton 41 36 44 Dodd - 1 - Edwards 11 13 10 Gravel - - - Kucinich 3 4 2 Obama 14 14 15 Richardson 3 5 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 18 14 21
1a. (If express choice) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
REG DEMS EXPRESSING CHOICE Q1 Q1 ........................FL Men Wom HC Very likely 11% 5% 14% 10% Smwht likely 33 41 28 30 Not too likely 16 15 16 14 Not likely at all 39 38 40 45 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 ........................OH Men Wom HC Very likely 11% 15% 8% 6% Smwht likely 29 28 29 18 Not too likely 21 19 22 26 Not likely at all 38 37 40 48 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 ........................PA Men Wom HC Very likely 11% 13% 9% 6% Smwht likely 43 48 39 38 Not too likely 19 15 22 23 Not likely at all 26 23 29 33 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......... WtBrnAgn ........................FL Men Wom Evnglcl Brownback 1% - 2% 3% Giuliani 27 25 29 17 Huckabee 4 5 3 8 Hunter - - - - McCain 8 8 7 8 Paul 2 4 - 2 Romney 17 23 10 16 Tancredo 1 1 - - Thompson,F. 19 20 17 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 16 9 25 19 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Men Wom Evnglcl Brownback 1% 1% - - Giuliani 29 29 30 21 Huckabee 5 6 4 9 Hunter 1 1 - 1 McCain 10 11 8 6 Paul 1 2 1 2 Romney 8 10 6 9 Tancredo 1 - 1 1 Thompson,F. 17 21 13 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 22 15 29 25 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Men Wom Evnglcl Brownback - - - - Giuliani 32 32 32 30 Huckabee 2 2 2 4 Hunter 1 2 1 3 McCain 13 8 18 14 Paul 4 6 2 - Romney 8 9 8 11 Tancredo - - - - Thompson 13 18 8 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 - DK/NA 20 19 21 19
2a. (If express choice) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
REG REPS EXPRESSING CHOICE Q2...... WtBrnAgn Q2 ........................FL Men Wom Evnglcl RG Very likely 17% 19% 14% 13% 11% Smwht likely 44 39 52 52 49 Not too likely 21 22 19 20 19 Not likely at all 18 20 15 14 20 DK/NA - - - 1 - WtBrnAgn ........................OH Men Wom Evnglcl RG Very likely 17% 13% 21% 11% 19% Smwht likely 48 51 45 54 43 Not too likely 16 16 16 18 18 Not likely at all 17 19 15 14 19 DK/NA 2 1 3 3 1 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Men Wom Evnglcl RG Very likely 11% 11% 11% 14% 11% Smwht likely 58 56 61 60 61 Not too likely 15 16 13 16 14 Not likely at all 14 14 14 10 12 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 2
3-14. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL OH PA Clinton 46% 46% 48% Giuliani 43 40 42 Obama 39% 44% 43% Giuliani 42 38 45 Edwards 41% 46% 43% Giuliani 43 36 44 Clinton 46% 48% 48% McCain 42 38 41 Obama 39% 43% 45% McCain 41 39 41 Edwards 42% 46% 47% McCain 40 35 39 Clinton 48% 50% 50% Thompson 39 36 39 Obama 45% 44% 45% Thompson 36 33 37 Edwards 44% 48% 47% Thompson 36 31 34 Clinton 48% 51% 49% Romney 37 34 37 Obama 43% 47% 49% Romney 36 31 33 Edwards 47% 50% 49% Romney 33 28 32
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 46% 8% 86% 36% 35% 56% 29% Giuliani 43 85 9 45 52 33 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 7 6 2 3 DK/NA 6 5 4 9 6 7 5 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 46% 5% 86% 33% 41% 51% 32% Giuliani 40 86 7 45 45 37 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 5 6 2 5 DK/NA 7 3 4 12 5 9 7 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 48% 11% 83% 45% 42% 54% 29% Giuliani 42 82 9 45 47 38 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 3 5 1 2 DK/NA 5 3 5 5 3 6 5
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 39% 7% 71% 36% 33% 45% 24% Giuliani 42 83 11 45 49 35 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 - 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 6 4 8 3 5 DK/NA 11 7 11 12 9 13 10 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 44% 8% 76% 38% 41% 46% 28% Giuliani 38 82 8 39 41 35 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 6 5 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 6 6 6 5 5 DK/NA 9 5 7 12 6 12 10 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 43% 9% 74% 42% 39% 46% 27% Giuliani 45 79 16 47 50 40 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 3 3 4 3 1 DK/NA 7 9 6 6 5 10 8
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 41% 7% 75% 37% 35% 47% 30% Giuliani 43 87 9 45 51 35 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 - 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 - 8 4 7 3 3 DK/NA 8 5 7 10 6 11 9 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 46% 9% 79% 40% 42% 50% 33% Giuliani 36 81 7 36 43 31 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 6 5 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 4 5 3 4 DK/NA 10 6 8 14 5 15 12 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 43% 11% 72% 39% 40% 45% 31% Giuliani 44 79 13 51 48 40 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 2 5 2 1 DK/NA 9 7 10 6 5 12 10
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 46% 10% 82% 39% 35% 57% 33% McCain 42 84 11 44 52 33 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 6 5 2 2 DK/NA 6 5 5 8 7 6 6 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 48% 6% 87% 36% 41% 54% 32% McCain 38 82 8 40 43 34 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 5 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 6 6 2 3 DK/NA 8 7 3 13 7 9 8 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 48% 14% 82% 42% 40% 55% 29% McCain 41 78 10 45 48 35 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 1 5 5 2 2 DK/NA 5 2 5 6 4 6 3
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 39% 11% 68% 36% 35% 44% 23% McCain 41 81 17 38 47 36 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 - 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 2 8 5 7 5 5 DK/NA 11 6 6 17 11 11 8 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 43% 12% 73% 37% 40% 46% 24% McCain 39 76 13 40 43 35 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 4 4 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 5 6 3 3 DK/NA 10 8 6 14 7 13 13 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 45% 16% 75% 42% 38% 52% 29% McCain 41 70 15 47 48 35 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 8 9 7 6 7 9 11
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 42% 8% 77% 38% 34% 50% 30% McCain 40 81 13 39 48 33 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 5 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 5 6 8 3 3 DK/NA 9 9 5 12 8 11 7 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 46% 10% 78% 41% 43% 49% 33% McCain 35 78 7 33 38 32 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 6 5 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 5 7 2 3 DK/NA 11 7 8 15 8 14 13 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 47% 15% 74% 44% 43% 50% 33% McCain 39 72 13 44 45 34 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 3 4 3 2 DK/NA 9 7 9 8 6 11 10
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 48% 11% 85% 41% 37% 58% 35% Thompson 39 79 10 37 47 30 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 2 9 7 3 2 DK/NA 7 6 3 11 8 7 6 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 50% 9% 90% 36% 43% 56% 34% Thompson 36 79 5 38 44 30 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 6 5 2 2 DK/NA 9 7 3 16 7 11 9 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 50% 16% 84% 47% 44% 56% 31% Thompson 39 76 9 39 46 33 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 4 2 2 DK/NA 6 5 5 8 4 8 6
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 45% 12% 76% 44% 40% 50% 26% Thompson 36 75 10 35 43 30 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 1 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 4 7 4 3 DK/NA 12 10 8 14 9 14 13 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 44% 15% 75% 35% 39% 49% 28% Thompson 33 71 8 34 40 28 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 7 7 6 4 3 DK/NA 14 10 8 20 11 16 17 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 45% 13% 75% 44% 39% 50% 29% Thompson 37 68 12 37 44 31 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 3 5 4 3 3 DK/NA 12 14 8 11 9 14 15
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 44% 11% 74% 44% 38% 51% 33% Thompson 36 75 12 31 43 29 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 - 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 4 4 7 8 4 3 DK/NA 12 10 8 14 10 13 9 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 48% 15% 78% 41% 43% 51% 34% Thompson 31 69 6 32 37 26 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 4 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 6 7 6 4 3 DK/NA 14 12 8 17 10 17 15 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 47% 16% 72% 48% 46% 47% 33% Thompson 34 64 14 31 39 30 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 5 4 4 2 DK/NA 13 16 10 13 10 16 15
12. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 48% 9% 86% 42% 38% 58% 33% Romney 37 79 6 36 45 29 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 6 5 3 5 DK/NA 9 6 6 13 10 9 7 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 51% 9% 91% 38% 43% 57% 35% Romney 34 78 5 35 41 28 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 5 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 1 7 6 3 3 DK/NA 9 8 3 14 8 11 9 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 49% 12% 85% 47% 44% 54% 32% Romney 37 75 7 38 43 32 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 4 2 3 DK/NA 8 8 5 9 6 10 6
13. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 43% 7% 74% 45% 38% 47% 25% Romney 36 77 10 32 43 28 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 4 1 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 4 6 4 7 5 5 DK/NA 13 10 8 15 10 16 13 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 47% 14% 79% 39% 44% 49% 28% Romney 31 69 6 31 37 26 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 3 3 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 5 6 7 7 5 4 DK/NA 14 10 8 18 9 18 15 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 49% 14% 79% 53% 43% 55% 32% Romney 33 69 9 29 39 28 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 3 5 3 3 DK/NA 11 12 7 13 10 13 13
14. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 47% 14% 79% 44% 39% 55% 38% Romney 33 74 6 31 40 26 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 4 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 4 3 6 8 3 4 DK/NA 12 7 10 15 11 14 8 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 50% 16% 80% 45% 45% 54% 36% Romney 28 68 4 22 34 23 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 3 6 5 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 6 6 3 3 DK/NA 14 10 8 21 9 18 17 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 49% 15% 78% 50% 47% 51% 39% Romney 32 66 8 30 37 27 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 6 5 4 2 DK/NA 13 15 11 11 9 17 14
15. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 49% 16% 81% 46% 42% 56% 34% Unfavorable 41 76 10 44 52 31 56 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 7 7 4 10 8 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 1 4 3 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 49% 10% 87% 38% 43% 55% 34% Unfavorable 42 83 7 52 49 35 61 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 5 8 6 6 3 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 1 3 2 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 51% 15% 84% 47% 43% 59% 35% Unfavorable 42 76 10 47 50 35 56 Hvn't hrd enough 4 6 4 3 3 5 6 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 2 3
16. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 46% 25% 67% 45% 44% 49% 41% Unfavorable 32 55 10 34 37 26 39 Hvn't hrd enough 20 18 22 20 17 23 19 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 24% 68% 45% 41% 53% 41% Unfavorable 26 53 8 27 33 20 39 Hvn't hrd enough 24 22 23 26 24 25 18 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 49% 25% 69% 48% 50% 49% 42% Unfavorable 27 44 12 27 33 21 32 Hvn't hrd enough 21 27 16 22 15 27 24 REFUSED 3 4 2 3 3 3 2
17. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 49% 78% 28% 52% 54% 44% 60% Unfavorable 34 8 50 33 34 33 21 Hvn't hrd enough 15 13 20 11 9 21 17 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 3 2 2 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 75% 21% 42% 44% 40% 50% Unfavorable 33 12 48 33 34 32 25 Hvn't hrd enough 23 12 29 23 21 25 22 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 1 3 3 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 51% 74% 34% 50% 51% 50% 61% Unfavorable 30 10 44 31 33 27 19 Hvn't hrd enough 16 14 18 16 13 19 18 REFUSED 3 1 4 3 2 4 2
18. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 43% 58% 31% 51% 48% 39% 54% Unfavorable 30 18 38 27 30 30 22 Hvn't hrd enough 23 19 29 17 18 28 22 REFUSED 3 5 2 4 4 3 2 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 40% 64% 24% 38% 46% 35% 44% Unfavorable 28 17 39 26 29 27 25 Hvn't hrd enough 29 15 35 32 22 35 28 REFUSED 3 4 2 3 3 3 3 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 43% 58% 27% 51% 47% 39% 55% Unfavorable 26 17 34 24 30 23 17 Hvn't hrd enough 29 23 37 24 22 35 27 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
19. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 22% 65% 50% 45% 49% 38% Unfavorable 27 51 11 21 30 24 35 Hvn't hrd enough 25 24 23 28 24 26 25 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 45% 25% 61% 46% 42% 47% 28% Unfavorable 26 47 12 25 33 20 37 Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 25 28 23 30 34 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 2 3 1 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 48% 33% 64% 49% 46% 50% 41% Unfavorable 22 30 11 23 27 17 24 Hvn't hrd enough 28 34 24 26 24 32 32 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 3 1 2
20. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 30% 54% 13% 30% 38% 23% 41% Unfavorable 20 8 28 22 18 22 17 Hvn't hrd enough 48 37 58 45 43 53 40 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 19% 41% 9% 13% 25% 15% 29% Unfavorable 22 11 31 22 25 20 15 Hvn't hrd enough 57 47 58 63 49 64 55 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 24% 43% 8% 27% 28% 22% 34% Unfavorable 23 8 32 26 27 20 15 Hvn't hrd enough 51 48 58 45 44 57 50 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 1
21. Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 29% 52% 14% 28% 38% 21% 40% Unfavorable 24 8 35 25 25 23 15 Hvn't hrd enough 45 39 50 43 35 55 45 REFUSED 1 - 1 3 1 1 - WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 23% 44% 9% 24% 27% 20% 36% Unfavorable 19 7 29 18 22 17 10 Hvn't hrd enough 55 47 59 57 50 60 52 REFUSED 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 26% 41% 13% 30% 32% 21% 31% Unfavorable 21 8 32 20 24 18 10 Hvn't hrd enough 52 51 55 50 43 60 59 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 -
22. (If registered Democrat) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president this year - Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ........................FL Men Wom Very satisfied 45% 46% 44% Smwht satisfied 39 34 42 Smwht dissatisfied 8 12 6 Very dissatisfied 7 7 7 DK/NA 1 1 2 ........................OH Men Wom Very satisfied 39% 37% 41% Smwht satisfied 43 35 48 Smwht dissatisfied 11 18 7 Very dissatisfied 3 6 2 DK/NA 4 5 3 ........................PA Men Wom Very satisfied 33% 29% 37% Smwht satisfied 50 48 52 Smwht dissatisfied 9 13 5 Very dissatisfied 6 10 3 DK/NA 2 - 3
23.(If registered Democrat)Do you think Hillary Clinton has the Democratic nomination for President locked up?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ........................FL Men Wom Yes 44% 51% 40% No 45 44 46 DK/NA 11 6 14 ........................OH Men Wom Yes 43% 44% 43% No 48 49 47 DK/NA 9 7 10 ........................PA Men Wom Yes 31% 30% 32% No 58 66 53 DK/NA 10 3 15
24.(If registered Republican)How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president this year - Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS ........ WtBrnAgn ........................FL Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 18% 20% 17% 13% Smwht satisfied 49 50 48 61 Smwht dissatisfied 21 18 24 20 Very dissatisfied 9 10 7 3 DK/NA 3 2 4 4 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 16% 15% 16% 15% Smwht satisfied 54 63 46 58 Smwht dissatisfied 22 13 30 20 Very dissatisfied 7 8 5 5 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 13% 15% 11% 7% Smwht satisfied 55 49 60 65 Smwht dissatisfied 22 25 19 21 Very dissatisfied 8 8 7 6 DK/NA 3 3 3 1
25. (If registered Republican)Do you think Rudy Giuliani has the Republican nomination for President locked up?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS ........ WtBrnAgn ........................FL Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 14% 15% 14% 11% No 78 80 75 81 DK/NA 8 5 11 7 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 11% 12% 11% 15% No 78 82 75 76 DK/NA 10 5 15 8 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 15% 16% 14% 17% No 76 81 71 71 DK/NA 9 2 16 12
26. Do you think that most public officials make decisions based on principle and what they think is right, or do so based on what they think is popular at the time?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 18% 19% 23% 9% 12% 23% 17% What's popular 72 68 68 80 75 68 75 DK/NA 11 13 8 11 13 9 8 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 19% 22% 21% 14% 16% 22% 19% What's popular 70 71 66 75 74 67 72 DK/NA 11 8 13 11 10 12 9 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 21% 23% 24% 13% 18% 23% 17% What's popular 69 67 67 76 74 65 73 DK/NA 10 9 9 11 8 12 10
27. Whether you personally agree with him or not, do you believe -- Rudy Giuliani makes decisions based on principle and what he thinks is right, or does he make decisions based on what he thinks is popular at the time?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 43% 61% 31% 44% 43% 43% 52% What's popular 42 27 52 43 45 40 37 DK/NA 14 11 17 13 11 17 11 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 40% 60% 26% 41% 43% 37% 46% What's popular 40 27 49 42 42 39 37 DK/NA 20 13 25 18 15 24 17 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 42% 62% 29% 44% 44% 40% 51% What's popular 41 22 55 41 43 40 30 DK/NA 17 16 16 16 13 20 18
28. Whether you personally agree with him or not, do you believe -- Fred Thompson makes decisions based on principle and what he thinks is right, or does he make decisions based on what he thinks is popular at the time?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 28% 45% 18% 28% 35% 22% 42% What's popular 29 19 38 28 30 28 23 DK/NA 43 36 45 44 36 50 35 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 24% 42% 14% 21% 30% 19% 34% What's popular 25 17 33 26 29 22 16 DK/NA 51 41 53 53 41 59 50 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 22% 34% 15% 20% 26% 18% 28% What's popular 24 17 28 24 29 19 17 DK/NA 54 49 57 56 45 63 54
29. Whether you personally agree with her or not, do you believe -- Hillary Clinton makes decisions based on principle and what she thinks is right, or does she make decisions based on what she thinks is popular at the time?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 42% 14% 72% 32% 35% 50% 34% What's popular 49 76 21 59 60 38 57 DK/NA 9 10 6 9 6 13 9 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 39% 14% 64% 29% 33% 44% 28% What's popular 52 78 30 59 59 46 65 DK/NA 9 8 7 11 8 11 8 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 40% 17% 62% 37% 32% 47% 29% What's popular 48 70 28 52 55 42 60 DK/NA 12 13 10 11 13 11 11
30. Whether you personally agree with him or not, do you believe -- Mitt Romney makes decisions based on principle and what he thinks is right, or does he make decisions based on what he thinks is popular at the time?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 27% 44% 19% 27% 29% 25% 42% What's popular 30 24 35 28 31 29 27 DK/NA 43 32 46 44 40 46 31 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 22% 33% 14% 21% 26% 18% 31% What's popular 29 22 33 32 35 24 21 DK/NA 49 45 53 47 39 58 48 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 24% 36% 17% 25% 26% 23% 30% What's popular 28 21 32 26 33 23 25 DK/NA 48 44 51 49 41 54 44
31. Whether you personally agree with him or not, do you believe -- John McCain makes decisions based on principle and what he thinks is right, or does he make decisions based on what he thinks is popular at the time?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 51% 57% 47% 58% 54% 48% 63% What's popular 29 32 29 24 31 28 24 DK/NA 20 11 24 18 15 24 13 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 43% 62% 31% 42% 45% 40% 50% What's popular 33 24 40 33 36 30 26 DK/NA 25 14 29 26 18 30 24 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 49% 56% 42% 57% 53% 45% 58% What's popular 29 22 35 25 29 28 22 DK/NA 23 22 23 18 18 27 20
32. Whether you personally agree with him or not, do you believe -- Barack Obama makes decisions based on principle and what he thinks is right, or does he make decisions based on what he thinks is popular at the time?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 43% 30% 59% 41% 38% 49% 40% What's popular 32 43 23 30 38 26 36 DK/NA 25 27 18 29 24 26 24 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 40% 31% 52% 35% 38% 42% 32% What's popular 34 44 25 36 40 28 38 DK/NA 26 24 23 29 22 30 30 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 45% 32% 57% 48% 43% 47% 39% What's popular 29 36 23 28 35 24 29 DK/NA 26 32 20 24 22 29 32
33. Whether you personally agree with him or not, do you believe -- John Edwards makes decisions based on principle and what he thinks is right, or does he make decisions based on what he thinks is popular at the time?
WtBrnAgn ........................FL Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 39% 23% 57% 37% 34% 44% 35% What's popular 41 57 24 46 48 35 45 DK/NA 20 20 19 17 18 21 19 WtBrnAgn ........................OH Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 39% 27% 54% 35% 33% 44% 35% What's popular 40 56 27 42 49 32 45 DK/NA 21 17 19 24 18 24 20 WtBrnAgn ........................PA Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Principle 40% 24% 51% 45% 39% 41% 36% What's popular 38 47 30 37 42 34 44 DK/NA 23 29 19 18 20 25 20