Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * May 22, 2008 * McCain Leads Obama In Two Of T - Quinnipiac University

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May 22, 2008 - McCain Leads Obama In Two Of Three Key Swing States, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton Has Big Leads In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania --- FLORIDA: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 45 - Obama 41; OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 44 - Obama 40: PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 50 - McCain 37; Obama 46 - McCain 40

Word format Plagued by a defection of Clinton supporters and white working class voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the leading Democratic presidential contender, trails Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican candidate, in Florida and Ohio, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. Sen. Obama is six points ahead in Pennsylvania. New York Sen. Clinton wins handily in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
Florida: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 41 percent; McCain leads Obama 45 - 41 percent; Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 41 percent; McCain tops Obama 44 - 40 percent; Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 50 - 37 percent; Obama leads McCain 46 - 40 percent.
In the McCain-Obama matchups, 26 to 36 percent of Clinton supporters in each state say that if Obama is the nominee they would switch to the Republican in November. Only 10 to 18 percent of Obama supporters say they would defect to McCain if Clinton is the nominee.
"The numbers for Florida and Ohio are good news for Sen. John McCain and should be worrisome for Sen. Barack Obama. That is especially true about Ohio, which decided the 2004 election. Ohio's economy is worse than the rest of the country and the Republican brand there is in disrepute. McCain's Buckeye lead may be a sign that nationally this may not be the easy Democratic walk to the White House that many expected," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"In the Democratic primaries Sen. Obama won in most states among whites with college educations. But this data show him losing among Florida and Ohio white college graduates by six points or more," Brown added.
President Bush's approval ratings are:
28 - 68 percent in Florida; 26 - 68 percent in Ohio; 23 - 72 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida
In a Clinton-McCain matchup, she leads 54 - 37 percent among women, while men back McCain 45 - 42 percent. In an Obama-McCain matchup, men back McCain 48 - 39 percent, while women split, with 43 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain.
Florida voters give Clinton a 48 - 43 percent favorability rating, with 44 - 40 percent for Obama and 45 - 37 percent for McCain.
Florida Democrats split 41 - 41 percent on whether they want to see Clinton or Obama nominated. Democrats say 64 - 31 percent that Clinton should stay in the race and 61 - 31 percent that Obama should pick her as his vice presidential running mate.
Democrats who want Clinton to win the nomination, would vote 91 - 6 percent for her against McCain, but only 43 - 36 percent for Obama against McCain.
The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 47 percent of Florida voters say, while 19 percent list the war in Iraq. Health care and terrorism each get 11 percent. Voters split 46 - 44 percent on whether they trust Obama or McCain to handle the economy. By a 52 - 42 percent margin, they trust McCain more to handle the war in Iraq and trust McCain more, 58 - 34, percent to handle terrorism. Voters trust Obama 50 - 37 percent to handle health care.
A total of 86 percent of Florida voters say they would be "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with an African American President.
A total of 65 percent of voters say they would be "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with a President who enters office at age 72.
Because of his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, 43 percent of Florida voters say they are less likely to vote for Obama, while 52 percent say it won't affect their vote.
The same number, 43 percent, say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his association with President Bush, while 45 percent say it won't affect their vote.
"Sen. Obama is losing the white vote by 14 - 18 points in Ohio and Florida, which is enough to keep him from victory despite overwhelming support from African Americans. In Ohio, more than a quarter of Clinton voters say they will support McCain. In Florida, more than a third of them say they will back McCain against Obama. If he can't win a decent chunk of them back, he's got an uphill climb in these pivotal states," said Brown.
Ohio
McCain edges Clinton 46 - 44 percent among men, as she takes women 53 - 37 percent.
Men back McCain over Obama 47 - 39 percent while women tip to Obama 42 - 40 percent.
Ohio voters give Clinton a 52 - 42 percent favorability, with 44 - 38 percent for Obama and 43 - 36 percent for McCain.
Democrats say 50 - 37 percent they would rather see Clinton win the nomination. These voters say 65 - 30 percent that she should stay in the race and say 59 - 30 percent that Obama should pick her as his running mate. Democrats who back Clinton would vote for her 95 - 4 percent over McCain, but would vote only 50 - 26 percent for Obama over McCain.
The economy is the most important issue to Ohio voters, 53 percent say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq and 15 percent who cite health care. By a 46 - 40 percent margin, voters trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy. They trust McCain more, 51 - 37 percent, to handle the war in Iraq. And they trust Obama more, 54 - 31 percent, to handle health care.
In all, 86 percent of Ohio voters say they would be "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with an African-American President. And 59 percent would be "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with a President who is 72 at the start of his term.
Because of Obama's association with Rev. Wright, 40 percent of Ohio voters are less likely to vote for him, while 56 percent say it doesn't make a difference.
Because of McCain's association with President Bush, 44 percent are less likely to vote for him, while 47 percent say it doesn't make a difference.
"Voters say they are much more comfortable with a black candidate than someone age 72, as is Sen. McCain," Brown said. "Given that the United States has never had a black President, but Ronald Reagan was 73 when he was re-elected, one has to wonder whether respondents are giving what they perceive to be the politically correct response. Still, McCain's age is a problem with many voters."
Pennsylvania Clinton tops McCain 57 - 31 percent with women. He has a 43 - 41 percent edge with men. Obama tops McCain 49 - 37 percent with women. Men split 43 - 42 percent.
Clinton gets a 50 - 42 percent favorability, with 50 - 34 percent for Obama and 42 - 37 percent for McCain.
Pennsylvania Democrats prefer Clinton to Obama 47 - 40 percent and say 65 - 33 percent that she should stay in the race. Obama should pick Clinton as his running mate, Democrats say 59 - 31 percent. Democrats who back Clinton would vote for her over McCain 93 - 5 percent, but would vote for Obama over McCain 51 - 32 percent.
The economy is the top issue for 48 percent of voters, followed by 22 percent who list the war in Iraq and 13 percent who cite health care. By a 50 - 39 percent margin, voters trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy. They trust McCain more, 49 - 43 percent, to handle the war in Iraq and trust Obama more, 57 - 30 percent, to handle health care.
A total of 88 percent of voters are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with an African-American president.
A total of 59 percent are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with a President who is 72 years old.
Because of his association with Rev. Wright, 39 percent of voters are less likely to vote for Obama, while 57 percent say it doesn't make a difference.
Because of his association with President Bush, 47 percent of voters are less likely to vote for McCain, while 47 percent say it makes no difference.
"Sen. Barack Obama's lead in Pennsylvania is probably because historically it has been the most Democratic of the three swing states. Sen. Obama trails Sen. John McCain by four points among white voters in the Keystone State and the Democrat loses working class whites by eight points, while McCain wins them by double digits in Ohio and Florida," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
From May l3 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,419 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,244 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,667 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1a. (Registered Democrats) Who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination for President this year - Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS FL Tot Men Wom Clinton 41 33 47 Obama 41 47 37 DK/NA 18 20 16 OH Tot Men Wom Clinton 50% 44% 55% Obama 37 41 33 DK/NA 14 15 12 PA Tot Men Wom Clinton 47% 41% 51% Obama 40 44 37 DK/NA 12 14 11
TREND: (Registered Democrats) Who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination for President this year - Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS May 22 May 1 FL 2008 2008 Clinton 41 47 Obama 41 33 DK/NA 18 20 May 22 May 1 OH 2008 2008 Clinton 50 47 Obama 37 34 DK/NA 14 19 May 22 May 1 PA 2008 2008 Clinton 47 51 Obama 40 38 DK/NA 12 11
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FLORIDA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 48% 10% 86% 43% 42% 54% 42% 86% McCain 41 82 8 41 45 37 48 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 2 5 5 3 4 2 DK/NA 6 3 3 9 7 5 6 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 43% 46% 46% 34% 62% McCain 45 42 42 54 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 6 4 6 3 DK/NA 7 6 7 4 4 WHITES...................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Clinton 56% 45% 44% 38% 37% 47% 33% 40% McCain 34 44 46 51 50 45 59 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 4 5 3 2 4 DK/NA 5 5 6 5 7 4 5 4 DEMS Q1a..... Clinton Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE Q12.. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Clinton 91% 81% 58% 53% 67% McCain 6 10 31 36 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 4 4 3 5 DK/NA 3 3 5 7 4
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 14 Dec 5 Oct 25 Oct 10 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 48 49 44 42 47 44 46 McCain 41 41 42 44 40 43 42 SMONE ELSE 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 DK/NA 6 6 8 9 7 6 6
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FLORIDA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 41% 11% 71% 36% 39% 43% 34% 88% McCain 45 82 17 45 48 42 52 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 - DK/NA 8 4 6 14 9 8 8 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 40% 37% 38% 30% 51% McCain 48 47 46 61 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 2 6 DK/NA 7 10 11 5 6 WHITES...................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 50% 38% 32% 39% 33% 35% 21% 35% McCain 39 48 52 52 53 51 66 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 5 2 5 4 4 5 DK/NA 5 9 9 6 9 8 8 9 DEMS Q1a..... Clinton Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE Q12.. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Obama 43% 98% 51% 44% 52% McCain 36 2 35 41 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 1 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 - 2 4 5 DK/NA 10 1 10 9 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 14 Oct 25 Oct 10 Sep 12 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Obama 41 43 37 39 42 39 39 McCain 45 44 46 41 42 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 4 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 6 4 5 6 5 DK/NA 8 8 9 12 9 11 11
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
OHIO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 48% 8% 85% 40% 44% 53% 45% 83% McCain 41 85 8 45 46 37 45 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 4 4 2 3 4 DK/NA 6 3 3 10 5 7 6 3 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Clinton 46% 52% 46% 55% 40% 49% McCain 42 37 39 38 52 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 5 5 1 2 DK/NA 6 7 9 1 5 4 WHITES...................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Clinton 48% 49% 45% 43% 40% 49% 39% 46% McCain 42 41 44 46 49 41 53 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 3 DK/NA 6 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 DEMS Q1a..... Clinton Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE Q12.. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Clinton 95% 70% 53% 49% 67% McCain 4 18 36 40 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 6 5 3 2 DK/NA 1 4 5 7 5
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 14 Dec 5 Nov 14 Oct 10 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 48 48 48 43 44 42 48 McCain 41 38 39 44 42 46 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 3 3 4 3 4 DK/NA 6 7 8 8 7 7 8
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
OHIO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 40% 9% 69% 34% 39% 42% 35% 93% McCain 44 83 13 48 47 40 49 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 1 9 4 4 6 6 1 DK/NA 9 6 6 12 8 9 9 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Obama 38% 43% 49% 29% 39% 37% McCain 43 40 37 49 53 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 6 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 4 6 8 2 7 DK/NA 10 11 8 8 5 4 WHITES...................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 43% 39% 33% 41% 33% 36% 27% 37% McCain 42 45 49 47 52 45 57 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 5 6 3 5 7 4 6 DK/NA 7 10 10 7 8 10 9 10 DEMS Q1a..... Clinton Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE Q12.. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Obama 50% 95% 51% 40% 54% McCain 26 3 33 44 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 13 - 5 5 6 DK/NA 8 2 9 9 9
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Jul 12 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Obama 40 42 43 40 43 41 43 McCain 44 43 42 42 39 42 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 DK/NA 9 8 8 10 10 10 11
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
PENNSYLVANIA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 50% 9% 86% 41% 41% 57% 46% 78% McCain 37 81 6 39 43 31 41 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 4 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 4 6 5 4 4 14 DK/NA 6 5 2 9 6 6 6 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Clinton 48% 62% 62% 56% 47% 49% 36% McCain 39 17 29 32 43 41 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 3 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 14 2 5 1 2 5 DK/NA 8 5 5 5 6 6 7 WHITES...................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Clinton 52% 49% 47% 44% 39% 53% 31% 52% McCain 37 37 40 45 46 37 56 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 3 2 4 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 4 3 5 3 3 3 DK/NA 4 7 6 6 6 6 7 4 DEMS Q1a..... Clinton Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE Q12.. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Clinton 93% 70% 60% 53% 60% McCain 5 14 25 35 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 5 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 11 3 4 4 DK/NA 1 4 8 6 6
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 27 Feb 14 Dec 5 Nov 8 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Clinton 50 51 48 44 46 43 45 McCain 37 37 40 42 40 43 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 2 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 4 3 3 4 DK/NA 6 6 8 8 9 8 7
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
PENNSYLVANIA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 46% 11% 73% 43% 42% 49% 40% 94% McCain 40 77 17 40 43 37 44 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 3 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 6 4 4 5 5 2 DK/NA 8 7 5 9 8 8 8 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 47% 66% 48% 52% 43% 34% 35% McCain 42 20 37 33 43 47 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 5 4 6 9 5 DK/NA 6 8 9 9 6 7 9 WHITES...................................... Working Age Age Class College BrnAgn 18-44 45+ (NoCol) Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 52% 42% 37% 45% 39% 40% 28% 41% McCain 38 41 45 44 46 43 58 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 3 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 6 7 2 5 6 5 7 DK/NA 5 9 9 7 8 9 8 7 DEMS Q1a..... Clinton Obama IMP ISSUE TO VOTE Q12.. Supp Supp War Econ HlthCr Obama 51% 95% 57% 48% 54% McCain 32 4 26 37 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 3 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 1 5 4 6 DK/NA 8 1 9 9 5
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 27 Feb 14 Oct 10 Aug 23 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Obama 46 47 43 42 42 45 43 McCain 40 38 39 40 41 41 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 DK/NA 8 9 11 12 11 8 11
3. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 48% 19% 77% 45% 43% 53% 46% 68% Unfavorable 43 75 16 42 48 37 47 14 Hvn't hrd enough 5 2 5 9 5 6 4 13 REFUSED 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 17% 81% 47% 47% 56% 50% 72% Unfavorable 42 76 16 45 47 38 44 25 Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 2 6 4 5 5 1 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 50% 20% 75% 46% 43% 56% 49% 60% Unfavorable 42 72 18 46 50 35 44 28 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 2 3 2 6
4. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 44% 21% 65% 41% 44% 44% 38% 81% Unfavorable 40 65 22 37 41 39 46 9 Hvn't hrd enough 14 12 11 19 14 14 14 8 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 44% 25% 61% 40% 43% 44% 38% 85% Unfavorable 38 56 25 37 39 36 41 8 Hvn't hrd enough 16 16 13 19 15 17 17 7 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 50% 28% 65% 49% 47% 53% 45% 90% Unfavorable 34 56 21 31 38 30 39 2 Hvn't hrd enough 13 14 11 18 13 14 14 6 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2
5. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 45% 75% 21% 45% 50% 40% 51% 14% Unfavorable 37 15 58 35 38 37 33 53 Hvn't hrd enough 14 9 16 17 10 19 12 28 REFUSED 3 2 5 3 3 4 4 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 43% 73% 21% 45% 44% 42% 47% 12% Unfavorable 36 13 58 29 38 33 34 50 Hvn't hrd enough 19 12 19 24 16 22 18 33 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 5 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 42% 74% 19% 45% 48% 37% 46% 10% Unfavorable 37 14 56 32 36 39 36 56 Hvn't hrd enough 18 10 23 20 14 22 16 31 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3
6. Given the current standings, do you think Hillary Clinton should stay in the race for President or drop out?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Stay in 60% 55% 64% 59% 59% 61% 62% 50% Drop out 33 37 31 34 36 31 32 43 DK/NA 7 8 5 6 5 8 7 7 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Stay in 60% 50% 65% 61% 57% 62% 60% 60% Drop out 34 39 30 33 36 31 32 37 DK/NA 7 10 4 6 7 7 8 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Stay in 59% 54% 65% 57% 55% 63% 61% 44% Drop out 35 38 33 36 39 32 34 53 DK/NA 5 8 2 7 6 5 6 3
7. Have you heard or read anything recently about Barack Obama that has bothered you?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 47% 69% 32% 46% 50% 45% 53% 17% No 52 30 68 52 49 54 46 83 DK/NA 1 - - 3 1 1 1 - OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 43% 61% 31% 44% 46% 41% 47% 13% No 55 38 68 55 53 57 52 84 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 42% 61% 31% 40% 45% 38% 45% 14% No 58 38 69 59 54 61 54 86 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 -
8. (If 'bothered' q7) Has it bothered you a lot or only a little?
BOTHERED Q7................................ FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 76% 85% 61% 73% 73% 79% Only a little 23 14 39 26 26 20 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 72% 69% 67% 79% 70% 74% Only a little 27 30 32 20 29 25 DK/NA 1 2 - 1 1 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 66% 74% 60% 57% 64% 67% Only a little 32 23 37 40 33 30 DK/NA 3 3 2 2 3 2
9. Have you heard or read anything recently about John McCain that has bothered you?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 34% 28% 39% 34% 39% 29% 35% 23% No 65 72 59 64 60 69 64 77 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 - OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 34% 20% 42% 37% 39% 29% 33% 30% No 65 80 56 61 59 70 66 69 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 33% 25% 39% 34% 39% 28% 32% 38% No 66 74 59 66 60 70 67 57 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 2 1 5
10. (If 'bothered' q9) Has it bothered you a lot or only a little?
BOTHERED Q9................................ FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 65% 43% 73% 68% 61% 70% Only a little 33 55 26 28 37 27 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 2 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 62% 42% 70% 62% 61% 64% Only a little 36 58 29 36 39 33 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 - 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 69% 46% 82% 63% 67% 73% Only a little 29 53 16 37 33 25 DK/NA 1 1 2 - - 2
11. If Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination, do you think he should or should not offer the Vice Presidential nomination to Hillary Clinton?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Should 43% 25% 61% 39% 36% 48% 36% 68% Should not 45 60 31 45 51 39 50 22 DK/NA 13 15 8 16 13 13 14 10 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Should 42% 20% 59% 42% 37% 47% 40% 62% Should not 45 66 30 44 51 39 47 25 DK/NA 13 14 11 13 12 14 13 13 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Should 42% 23% 59% 37% 34% 49% 41% 54% Should not 46 63 31 50 53 39 47 29 DK/NA 13 14 10 13 14 12 12 16
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (Read options)
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 11% 22% 1% 10% 13% 9% 12% 6 The war in Iraq 19 16 22 18 16 22 20 20 The economy 47 41 50 52 50 45 49 45 Illegal immigration 7 11 3 7 8 6 6 5 Health care 11 5 19 8 9 13 8 16 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 2 3 2 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 7% 14% 3% 5% 7% 7% 7% 5% The war in Iraq 16 12 19 16 15 16 15 20 The economy 53 50 54 56 56 51 54 46 Illegal immigration 5 8 1 6 8 3 6 1 Health care 15 10 20 13 11 18 14 25 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 7% 19% 2% 4% 8% 6% 8% 3% The war in Iraq 22 15 27 20 22 21 21 24 The economy 48 44 50 51 46 49 48 42 Illegal immigration 6 8 3 6 7 4 6 4 Health care 13 8 16 14 10 15 12 23 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 2 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 2 1 1 4 3 2 2 2
13. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle - Gasoline prices - Barack Obama or John McCain?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 44% 14% 69% 43% 41% 46% 35% 91% McCain 36 65 15 33 36 35 42 2 DK/NA 21 21 16 24 23 18 23 7 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 46% 16% 73% 43% 47% 46% 42% 86% McCain 29 58 8 27 29 29 32 2 DK/NA 25 26 19 31 24 26 26 11 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 51% 22% 74% 50% 50% 53% 47% 88% McCain 29 56 13 26 30 28 32 6 DK/NA 20 22 12 24 20 19 21 7
14. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle - the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 46% 12% 75% 44% 45% 46% 38% 86% McCain 44 79 16 45 47 41 52 6 DK/NA 10 9 9 11 8 12 10 8 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 46% 12% 75% 42% 44% 49% 41% 94% McCain 40 75 14 42 43 37 45 4 DK/NA 14 13 11 16 13 14 15 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 14% 75% 51% 45% 54% 45% 93% McCain 39 77 15 36 43 34 43 2 DK/NA 12 9 10 13 11 12 12 5
15. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle - the war in Iraq - Barack Obama or John McCain?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 42% 11% 69% 38% 39% 44% 35% 83% McCain 52 87 23 55 58 47 60 12 DK/NA 6 2 8 7 3 9 6 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 37% 8% 65% 31% 37% 38% 32% 82% McCain 51 87 22 54 55 47 55 12 DK/NA 12 6 12 16 9 15 13 6 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 43% 11% 69% 38% 39% 46% 38% 87% McCain 49 85 23 53 54 45 54 9 DK/NA 8 3 8 9 7 9 7 4
16. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle - illegal immigration - Barack Obama or John McCain?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 38% 13% 64% 33% 37% 40% 30% 78% McCain 44 72 20 47 46 42 49 13 DK/NA 18 14 16 20 18 18 21 9 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 37% 13% 61% 31% 35% 40% 32% 78% McCain 42 72 22 42 47 38 46 12 DK/NA 21 16 18 27 18 23 21 10 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 40% 13% 62% 36% 35% 44% 35% 82% McCain 41 68 23 41 44 38 45 11 DK/NA 19 19 15 22 20 18 20 8
17. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle - terrorism - Barack Obama or John McCain?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 34% 8% 59% 31% 32% 36% 27% 74% McCain 58 88 32 60 61 54 65 18 DK/NA 8 4 9 10 7 10 8 8 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 31% 7% 56% 24% 28% 34% 25% 83% McCain 56 89 29 60 61 51 62 10 DK/NA 13 5 15 15 11 14 13 8 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 37% 9% 60% 33% 34% 40% 32% 83% McCain 54 86 31 57 58 51 60 13 DK/NA 9 5 9 10 8 9 9 4
18. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle - health care - Barack Obama or John McCain?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 17% 77% 53% 47% 53% 43% 91% McCain 37 71 12 33 39 34 44 2 DK/NA 13 12 11 15 13 13 13 7 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 54% 20% 79% 55% 54% 53% 49% 96% McCain 31 63 10 27 32 30 35 3 DK/NA 15 16 11 18 14 17 17 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 57% 25% 79% 57% 56% 58% 52% 94% McCain 30 61 12 29 32 28 33 4 DK/NA 13 14 10 13 12 14 15 1
19. Do you feel you know enough about Barack Obama to decide whether or not to vote for him for president, or do you feel you need to know more about him before you decide?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Know enough 64% 71% 67% 57% 66% 62% 63% 76% Need to know more 33 27 33 40 31 35 34 23 DK/NA 3 2 1 3 2 3 2 1 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Know enough 62% 62% 69% 57% 64% 61% 62% 72% Need to know more 35 36 29 40 34 36 36 23 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 6 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Know enough 63% 60% 69% 55% 65% 60% 61% 80% Need to know more 35 37 30 42 32 38 36 20 DK/NA 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 -
20. (If 'need to know more' q19) Do you need to know a lot more about him, or just somewhat more?
NEED TO KNOW MORE Q19...................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot more 52% 56% 44% 57% 57% 48% Somewhat more 46 41 54 43 42 50 DK/NA 1 3 2 - 1 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot more 50% 57% 46% 48% 54% 47% Somewhat more 49 42 53 51 46 51 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 - 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot more 44% 44% 43% 42% 43% 44% Somewhat more 55 55 54 58 55 55 DK/NA 1 1 3 - 2 1
21. Do you feel you know enough about John McCain to decide whether or not to vote for him for president, or do you feel you need to know more about him before you decide?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Know enough 73% 80% 71% 70% 80% 66% 75% 63% Need to know more 25 19 25 28 17 31 23 29 DK/NA 2 - 4 2 2 3 2 8 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Know enough 63% 65% 68% 56% 68% 58% 63% 57% Need to know more 34 32 29 42 30 38 34 40 DK/NA 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Know enough 64% 70% 65% 61% 68% 60% 64% 61% Need to know more 34 29 33 38 30 38 34 31 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 8
22. (If 'need to know more' q21) Do you need to know a lot more about him, or just somewhat more?
NEED TO KNOW MORE Q21...................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot more 34% 31% 38% 36% 30% 36% Somewhat more 65 68 61 64 68 63 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 2 1 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot more 40% 29% 48% 40% 36% 43% Somewhat more 58 70 51 59 64 55 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot more 37% 27% 39% 39% 32% 40% Somewhat more 62 73 60 61 66 59 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 2 -
23. Would you say that Barack Obama is in touch or out of touch with the problems ordinary Americans face?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk In touch 59% 42% 77% 55% 58% 59% 54% 92% Out of touch 33 47 16 38 37 29 37 6 DK/NA 9 10 7 7 5 12 9 3 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk In touch 60% 47% 75% 55% 60% 61% 57% 89% Out of touch 32 43 22 35 34 30 35 5 DK/NA 8 10 3 10 7 9 8 6 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk In touch 67% 51% 78% 71% 64% 69% 64% 93% Out of touch 27 44 16 24 31 24 31 3 DK/NA 6 5 6 5 5 7 6 5
24. Would you say that John McCain is in touch or out of touch with the problems ordinary Americans face?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk In touch 48% 72% 29% 45% 48% 48% 51% 26% Out of touch 45 23 61 49 47 43 42 65 DK/NA 7 4 10 6 5 9 7 9 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk In touch 44% 69% 26% 43% 44% 45% 47% 25% Out of touch 46 21 67 45 48 44 43 66 DK/NA 10 10 7 12 9 11 10 10 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk In touch 42% 66% 27% 40% 44% 41% 45% 27% Out of touch 50 26 65 53 50 50 48 68 DK/NA 8 8 8 7 6 10 8 5
25. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - A woman president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 69% 55% 77% 72% 69% 68% 69% 54% Smwht comfortable 17 21 15 15 17 17 16 29 Smwht uncomfortable 7 11 5 8 7 8 7 10 Entirely uncomfortable 6 11 2 4 6 6 6 4 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 61% 48% 68% 63% 57% 64% 61% 53% Smwht comfortable 22 22 23 23 25 20 21 31 Smwht uncomfortable 10 15 7 8 11 9 10 9 Entirely uncomfortable 7 14 2 5 6 7 7 8 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 65% 53% 73% 67% 64% 67% 66% 56% Smwht comfortable 18 22 16 18 19 17 18 19 Smwht uncomfortable 9 13 7 8 9 9 9 13 Entirely uncomfortable 6 10 3 5 6 6 6 8 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 4
26. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - An African- American president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 68% 62% 71% 69% 72% 64% 66% 71% Smwht comfortable 18 22 18 17 16 21 19 20 Smwht uncomfortable 8 9 6 9 7 9 8 4 Entirely uncomfortable 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 65% 61% 63% 72% 63% 66% 62% 78% Smwht comfortable 21 22 23 18 22 20 22 17 Smwht uncomfortable 7 9 7 6 8 6 8 3 Entirely uncomfortable 4 5 5 3 5 3 5 - DK/NA 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 68% 65% 67% 72% 69% 67% 67% 73% Smwht comfortable 20 21 20 19 19 20 20 14 Smwht uncomfortable 8 9 8 5 7 8 8 7 Entirely uncomfortable 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 2 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 4
27. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - Someone entering office as president of the United States at age 72, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 41% 59% 22% 46% 46% 36% 45% 23% Smwht comfortable 24 25 24 24 24 25 26 17 Smwht uncomfortable 21 11 31 20 17 25 19 33 Entirely uncomfortable 12 3 22 10 11 13 10 22 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 37% 58% 16% 46% 40% 34% 39% 15% Smwht comfortable 22 26 21 21 21 24 23 19 Smwht uncomfortable 25 13 37 22 24 26 25 28 Entirely uncomfortable 14 3 25 10 14 15 12 38 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely comfortable 34% 56% 17% 37% 40% 29% 37% 16% Smwht comfortable 25 25 24 25 24 25 26 16 Smwht uncomfortable 27 15 35 28 23 30 26 36 Entirely uncomfortable 12 3 22 8 9 15 10 28 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 4
28. Does John McCain's association with President Bush make you more likely to vote for McCain for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 11% 25% 4% 5% 11% 11% 10% 11% Less likely 43 11 69 44 39 46 42 44 Doesn't make diff 45 63 26 50 49 42 47 41 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 7% 17% 1% 6% 7% 8% 8% - Less likely 44 12 71 42 44 45 42 65 Doesn't make diff 47 71 26 51 48 46 49 30 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 5 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 6% 16% 1% 2% 6% 5% 6% 1% Less likely 47 14 69 48 45 48 45 61 Doesn't make diff 47 68 29 49 48 46 48 38 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 -
29. Does Barack Obama's association with Reverend Jeremiah Wright make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 3% 2% 4% 1% 3% 2% 2% 12% Less likely 43 63 24 47 46 40 49 9 Doesn't make diff 52 34 69 49 48 55 48 76 DK/NA 2 1 3 3 2 3 2 3 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 2% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3% 2% 7% Less likely 40 55 29 40 41 38 44 10 Doesn't make diff 56 41 67 55 55 56 52 80 DK/NA 2 3 2 1 2 3 2 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 2% - 4% 1% 1% 3% 1% 6% Less likely 39 59 29 36 40 38 44 1 Doesn't make diff 57 38 66 61 57 57 53 92 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 1 2 2 2
30. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 28% 59% 6% 22% 31% 25% 31% 6% Disapprove 68 35 93 71 66 70 64 89 DK/NA 5 6 1 6 4 6 5 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 26% 58% 4% 23% 26% 27% 29% 11% Disapprove 68 32 95 70 69 67 65 87 DK/NA 6 10 1 8 6 6 6 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 23% 57% 4% 18% 25% 22% 26% 2% Disapprove 72 37 94 77 70 74 69 97 DK/NA 5 6 2 5 5 5 5 1