Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * July 31, 2008 * Obama Tour Doesn't Help In Flo - Quinnipiac University

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July 31, 2008 - Obama Tour Doesn't Help In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Voters Care More About Energy Than Iraq --- FLORIDA: Obama 46 - McCain 44; OHIO: Obama 46 - McCain 44; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 - McCain 42

Word format With likely voters concerned more about energy than the war in Iraq, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's recent tour apparently didn't help, as Arizona Sen. John McCain gained on the Democratic front- runner in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
Florida and Ohio are now too close to call. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
Florida: Obama has 46 percent to McCain's 44 percent, compared to a 47 - 43 percent Obama lead June 18; Ohio: Obama has 46 percent to McCain's 44 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent Obama lead least time; Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 49 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 40 percent.
By margins of 27 to 30 percentage points, voters in each state say Congress should agree with President George W. Bush and allow offshore drilling for oil. Sen. McCain supports offshore drilling, while Sen. Obama opposes it.
"The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain's surge is a result of Sen. Obama's much-publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Sen. Obama was abroad," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying to fill their gas tanks," Brown added.
"The same voters who give President George W. Bush job approval ratings that are more than 2 - 1 negative want Congress to go along with the President on offshore oil drilling. McCain clearly sees public support for drilling as a means to challenge Obama's claim to be the best candidate to fix the economy. More voters still say Obama has the best energy plan. Whether that's because they don't know the specifics of each man's plan, or just don't think drilling is important enough to swing their votes, is the great unknown.
"Obama's reduced lead also may reflect the normal let-down from a big high after clinching the Democratic nomination."
Florida voters split 45 - 44 percent that a candidate's position on the war in Iraq is more important than his energy policy, but voters in Ohio, 48 - 43 percent, and Pennsylvania, 49 - 40 percent, care more about energy policy.
Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters in each state say by wide margins.
But by margins of 10 to 20 percentage points, voters in each state support McCain's plan to keep U.S. troops in Iraq with no fixed date for full withdrawal, rather than Obama's plan to set a fixed timetable for withdrawal.
President Bush's approval ratings are:
28 - 66 percent in Florida; 30 - 65 percent in Ohio; 24 - 70 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida
Florida women likely voters back Obama 47 - 42 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 53 - 39 percent while black voters back Obama 89 - 2 percent. Obama leads 66 - 27 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54, to Obama's 45 percent, and leads 51 - 41 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 46 - 41 percent, a shift from 47 - 37 percent for Obama June 18.
Looking at the candidates' spouses, Florida voters say 36 - 25 percent that Cindy McCain better fits their idea of a First Lady than Michelle Obama. Women prefer Ms. McCain 34 - 28 percent and men prefer her 38 - 22 percent.
Voters support 53 - 42 percent drilling for oil in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.
Looking for the best way to address the energy crisis:
51 percent call for renewable energy sources such as solar power, wind power and fuels; 22 percent support drilling in Alaska and currently protected offshore sites; 8 percent back nuclear power; 6 percent say mandate higher mileage standards for cars; 5 percent say release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Obama has a better energy policy, 34 percent of Florida likely voters say, as 32 percent say McCain has a better policy, with 34 percent undecided.
"Those who said Sen. McCain was throwing away Florida's electoral votes by advocating more offshore drilling might want to think again. By a 60 - 33 percent margin Florida voters back President Bush's call for more offshore drilling and want Congress to go along, as Sen. McCain has suggested," Brown said.
Ohio
Obama gets 47 percent of Ohio women likely voters, to McCain's 44 percent. Men split with 46 percent for Obama and 45 percent for McCain. White voters back McCain 49 - 42 percent, but Obama sweeps black voters 89 - 2 percent. The Democrat also leads 57 - 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain leads 48 - 41 percent among voters over 55.
In the First Lady matchup, Cindy McCain tops Michelle Obama 33 - 27 percent. Women split with 32 percent for McCain and 31 percent for Obama, while men prefer McCain 33 - 23 percent.
Ohio voters back 55 - 40 percent drilling for oil in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.
Looking for the best way to address the energy crisis:
57 percent call for renewable energy sources; 20 percent support drilling in Alaska and offshore sites; 7 percent back nuclear power; 7 percent say mandate higher mileage standards for cars; 5 percent say release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Voters split on which candidate has a better energy policy, with 34 percent naming Obama, 33 percent naming McCain and 33 percent undecided.
"Not surprisingly, McCain's improved showing in Ohio stems from slightly better numbers among white voters. And, he has narrowed Obama's lead among women. This relatively small change in the horse race numbers is confirmed by a similar increased favorability for McCain and decreased favorability for Obama," Brown said.
Pennsylvania
Obama leads 50 - 39 percent with women and 48 - 44 percent among men. White voters split with 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. The Democrat leads 91 - 1 percent among black voters. Obama leads 60 - 37 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 49 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54. Voters over 55 split 45 - 45 percent.
The First Lady comparison is a toss-up, with 31 percent picking McCain and 29 percent picking Obama. Women prefer Obama 33 - 30 percent, while men like McCain 33 - 25 percent.
Pennsylvania voters support 55 - 41 percent drilling for oil in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.
Looking for the best way to address the energy crisis:
55 percent call for renewable energy sources; 18 percent support drilling in Alaska and offshore sites; 8 percent back nuclear power; 7 percent say mandate higher mileage standards for cars; 5 percent say release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Obama has a better energy policy, Pennsylvania likely voters say 36 - 30 percent.
"Sen. John McCain has narrowed Sen. Barack Obama's lead in Pennsylvania by five points, probably because his energy policy is more in line in Pennsylvania - the Three Mile Island state where a surprising six in 10 voters now favor building new nuclear power plants," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Obama still has a comfortable seven-point lead, but as in the primary, he still is struggling among white blue collar workers."
From July 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,248 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,229 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,317 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS............................................... FLORIDA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Obama 46% 9% 86% 41% 45% 47% 39% 89% 56% McCain 44 88 9 46 47 42 53 2 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 1 1 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 4 10 6 9 7 8 4 IMP ISSUE Q7 North/ War Econ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Jews Obama 59% 53% 42% 43% 40% 41% 60% 65% McCain 33 39 51 47 50 50 31 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 3 4 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 6 9 7 5 8 5 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 66% 45% 41% 38% 41% 39% 39% 23% 40% McCain 27 47 51 53 51 55 51 71 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 6 7 8 6 4 10 5 7 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 13% 83% 6% 66% McCain 80 11 87 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 5 5 7 TREND LIKELY VOTERS.. Jul 31 Jun 18 2008 2008 Obama 46 47 McCain 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 7 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 FL Tot Obama McCain Made up 80% 78% 83% Might change 18 20 16 DK/NA 2 2 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS............................................... OHIO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 46% 8% 84% 43% 46% 47% 42% 89% McCain 44 89 11 41 45 44 49 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 3 5 14 8 8 8 9 IMP ISSUE Q7 War Econ Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Obama 60% 50% 50% 49% 47% 46% 47% 32% McCain 33 40 41 41 45 43 44 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 9 6 9 8 9 7 9 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 57% 48% 41% 40% 47% 42% 42% 31% 40% McCain 35 44 48 50 48 49 49 62 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 6 9 9 3 8 8 7 6 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 11% 81% 7% 68% McCain 81 12 86 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 6 6 7 TREND LIKELY VOTERS.. Jul 31 Jun 18 2008 2008 Obama 46 48 McCain 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 OH Tot Obama McCain Made up 79% 77% 80% Might change 21 22 19 DK/NA 1 1 - TABLE 022
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS............................................... PENNSYLVANIA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 49% 10% 80% 49% 48% 50% 45% 91% McCain 42 85 14 38 44 39 46 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 5 6 11 7 9 8 8 IMP ISSUE Q7 War Econ Algny Phily NEast SEast NWest SWest Cntrl Obama 60% 55% 47% 70% 51% 54% 42% 47% 38% McCain 31 37 45 16 37 38 53 45 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 6 7 13 11 7 3 7 7 WHITE................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 60% 49% 45% 43% 51% 45% 45% 32% 44% McCain 37 41 45 48 41 48 44 60 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 9 8 9 6 7 9 8 10 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 16% 80% 7% 66% McCain 77 13 88 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 7 4 9 TREND LIKELY VOTERS.. Jul 31 Jun 18 2008 2008 Obama 49 52 McCain 42 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 PA Tot Obama McCain Made up 77% 78% 75% Might change 21 19 24 DK/NA 2 3 1
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 50% 20% 78% 46% 46% 54% 45% 86% 56% Unfavorable 33 65 8 32 38 29 39 - 27 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 11 19 13 14 12 12 17 REFUSED 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 2 - OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 50% 20% 78% 50% 50% 51% 45% 96% Unfavorable 34 65 12 29 37 32 38 3 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 10 19 12 15 15 1 REFUSED 2 4 1 2 2 3 2 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 54% 27% 76% 53% 52% 56% 51% 85% Unfavorable 27 57 9 24 32 23 29 4 Hvn't hrd enough 15 15 12 19 13 18 17 8 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 3 3 3 2
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 51% 83% 24% 54% 54% 49% 58% 13% 48% Unfavorable 30 8 51 27 30 29 27 49 28 Hvn't hrd enough 16 9 22 16 13 19 12 38 20 REFUSED 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 - 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 84% 26% 54% 53% 52% 57% 13% Unfavorable 32 5 57 28 33 31 29 63 Hvn't hrd enough 13 8 15 16 12 15 12 20 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 54% 86% 30% 56% 55% 53% 58% 16% Unfavorable 28 6 47 27 30 27 27 47 Hvn't hrd enough 14 7 20 14 12 16 12 34 REFUSED 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 2
4. Is your opinion of -- Michelle Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 29% 12% 47% 28% 25% 33% 26% 44% 37% Unfavorable 27 48 8 28 31 23 32 - 22 Hvn't hrd enough 40 36 42 38 39 40 38 55 35 REFUSED 5 4 3 5 6 3 5 - 6 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 29% 13% 48% 22% 24% 33% 24% 73% Unfavorable 25 42 8 27 27 23 27 - Hvn't hrd enough 42 41 40 45 43 41 44 25 REFUSED 5 4 4 5 6 4 5 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 33% 17% 50% 27% 29% 36% 31% 56% Unfavorable 21 37 9 23 22 19 22 1 Hvn't hrd enough 41 42 38 45 43 40 42 39 REFUSED 5 5 3 5 6 5 5 3
5. Is your opinion of -- Cindy McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 29% 47% 15% 30% 26% 32% 32% 7% 32% Unfavorable 10 3 18 9 9 11 10 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 56 46 63 56 59 54 54 80 48 REFUSED 4 3 4 5 6 3 4 - 6 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 26% 43% 15% 22% 23% 28% 28% 9% Unfavorable 9 2 16 9 9 10 9 20 Hvn't hrd enough 60 52 63 64 61 59 59 68 REFUSED 5 3 5 5 7 3 5 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 25% 37% 18% 24% 26% 24% 26% 12% Unfavorable 9 2 13 10 9 9 8 14 Hvn't hrd enough 60 55 64 61 60 61 60 70 REFUSED 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 4
6. Who do you think better fits your idea of what a First Lady should be - Michelle Obama or Cindy McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Michelle Obama 25% 6% 47% 20% 22% 28% 20% 62% 25% Cindy McCain 36 66 11 40 38 34 42 3 35 DK/NA 39 28 42 40 40 38 38 36 40 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Michelle Obama 27% 5% 52% 22% 23% 31% 23% 66% Cindy McCain 33 59 13 32 33 32 36 4 DK/NA 40 37 35 46 44 37 41 30 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Michelle Obama 29% 9% 49% 24% 25% 33% 25% 72% Cindy McCain 31 58 13 31 33 30 33 5 DK/NA 40 33 37 45 42 38 41 22
7. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year?(READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Terrorism 10% 23% 3% 8% 12% 9% 11% 2% 16% The war in Iraq 16 13 20 15 14 18 16 25 9 The economy 50 46 55 53 52 49 50 46 52 Illegal immigration 6 9 2 8 9 4 8 - 2 Health care 10 5 15 9 5 15 9 19 11 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 2 3 5 4 3 4 1 5 DK/NA 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 8 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 8% 16% 2% 7% 9% 6% 8% 1% The war in Iraq 15 14 17 15 14 16 16 9 The economy 55 47 61 57 55 55 54 60 Illegal immigration 6 9 2 7 7 6 7 - Health care 11 9 14 9 9 13 9 28 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 4 2 3 2 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 9% 18% 2% 9% 10% 8% 9% 6% The war in Iraq 17 13 19 20 19 15 16 26 The economy 49 45 55 48 48 51 52 35 Illegal immigration 6 10 2 7 6 6 7 2 Health care 11 7 16 8 9 13 10 26 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 5 3 4 2 DK/NA 4 5 3 3 4 4 3 2
8. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His More likely 2% 5% 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% - 6% Less likely 22 6 36 22 21 23 22 28 15 Doesn't make diff 73 88 60 76 72 74 74 69 73 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 3 2 1 3 6 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 2% 5% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% - Less likely 23 5 43 20 21 25 20 54 Doesn't make diff 74 90 56 77 75 73 77 45 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% - Less likely 25 11 39 21 27 24 24 44 Doesn't make diff 72 86 59 75 70 74 73 56 DK/NA 2 - 1 1 2 1 1 -
9. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His More likely 6% 1% 11% 5% 6% 6% 3% 20% 7% Less likely 6 10 5 3 7 6 8 - 5 Doesn't make diff 86 88 82 92 86 87 88 79 88 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 2 1 2 - OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 5% 2% 8% 5% 5% 5% 3% 19% Less likely 4 9 2 2 6 3 5 - Doesn't make diff 90 89 89 91 89 90 91 80 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 2 1 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 6% 1% 9% 7% 6% 6% 3% 33% Less likely 4 8 2 3 5 3 4 - Doesn't make diff 89 89 88 89 88 89 91 67 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 2 1 -
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 28% 61% 5% 24% 28% 27% 31% 6% 30% Disapprove 66 34 93 67 64 68 62 90 65 DK/NA 6 5 2 9 8 5 6 4 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 66% 5% 27% 31% 30% 33% 5% Disapprove 65 25 94 69 64 65 61 95 DK/NA 5 9 1 4 5 6 6 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 24% 57% 5% 19% 26% 22% 26% 8% Disapprove 70 35 92 76 70 71 69 87 DK/NA 5 8 3 5 4 7 5 5
11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Very satisfied 2% 3% - 4% 3% 2% 1% 3% 6% Smwht satisfied 17 36 6 12 19 15 19 6 15 Smwht dissatisfied 30 36 26 29 33 28 32 21 30 Very dissatisfied 49 23 68 53 44 54 47 68 49 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 2% 4% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% Smwht satisfied 16 32 5 14 16 16 17 8 Smwht dissatisfied 36 45 25 37 35 36 37 31 Very dissatisfied 46 18 69 47 46 46 44 59 DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 - - 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 2% 6% - 2% 2% 3% 2% - Smwht satisfied 16 34 6 13 20 13 16 10 Smwht dissatisfied 31 35 27 34 31 32 34 20 Very dissatisfied 49 23 66 51 46 52 47 69 DK/NA 1 2 - - 1 1 1 -
12. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Right thing 37% 72% 8% 38% 40% 35% 42% 11% 37% Wrong thing 55 19 86 56 52 59 52 86 52 DK/NA 8 9 6 6 8 7 6 3 11 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 38% 74% 11% 37% 39% 38% 42% 12% Wrong thing 54 19 82 55 56 52 51 79 DK/NA 8 7 7 8 5 10 8 9 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 34% 72% 12% 31% 37% 32% 36% 11% Wrong thing 59 22 83 62 58 60 57 85 DK/NA 6 6 5 7 5 8 7 4
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq? A) Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR B) Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal.
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 39% 17% 61% 36% 34% 45% 35% 73% 36% B) Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 55 80 33 59 60 51 60 23 59 DK/NA 5 3 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 37% 14% 58% 37% 37% 38% 36% 51% B) Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 57 83 36 58 58 57 59 42 DK/NA 5 3 6 5 5 5 5 7 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 42% 17% 62% 41% 37% 47% 40% 71% B) Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 52 78 34 53 58 47 55 28 DK/NA 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1
14. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Getting ahead 11% 11% 13% 9% 15% 8% 12% 14% 4% Falling behind 23 18 26 23 22 24 20 25 33 Holding steady 65 70 62 67 62 68 68 59 63 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 - OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 11% 15% 7% 12% 14% 8% 11% 8% Falling behind 25 14 32 25 22 27 22 40 Holding steady 63 70 60 62 63 63 65 51 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 11% 17% 7% 13% 15% 8% 11% 10% Falling behind 23 13 30 21 21 25 23 33 Holding steady 64 68 61 64 62 65 65 55 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
15. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His A) Retirement funds 10% 12% 6% 12% 10% 11% 12% 4% 4% B) Real estate val 14 20 9 17 16 13 17 3 11 B) Health care cost 16 15 20 15 15 17 16 17 16 C) Gasoline prices 37 38 39 32 39 35 34 47 50 D) Food prices 16 11 21 16 12 20 15 21 15 DK/NA 7 5 5 8 9 5 6 9 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 13% 15% 12% 13% 11% 15% 13% 11% B) Real estate val 8 6 8 9 9 7 8 5 C) Health care cost 21 17 22 25 22 21 21 30 D) Gasoline prices 36 42 34 33 36 36 38 25 E) Food prices 15 14 18 15 16 15 15 25 DK/NA 6 5 7 5 7 5 6 4 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 14% 15% 10% 18% 13% 14% 14% 11% B) Real estate val 7 7 6 10 9 5 8 1 C) Health care cost 19 17 22 19 17 21 20 14 D) Gasoline prices 37 41 36 35 38 36 37 36 E) Food prices 17 15 20 13 14 19 16 25 DK/NA 7 5 6 5 9 6 6 14
16. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Building new nuclear power plants?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Support 62% 76% 47% 68% 76% 50% 67% 48% 51% Oppose 29 17 40 25 19 38 24 45 40 DK/NA 9 6 12 8 5 12 9 7 9 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 56% 73% 44% 55% 69% 44% 59% 31% Oppose 34 17 43 37 26 41 32 49 DK/NA 10 9 12 8 5 14 9 20 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 58% 72% 48% 57% 69% 47% 61% 26% Oppose 32 21 41 34 25 39 28 65 DK/NA 10 7 12 9 6 14 10 9
16b. COMBINED RESULTS Q16 AND Q16a To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Building new nuclear power plants?(If support q16) Previously, did you oppose building new nuclear power plants?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Always Support 55% 71% 41% 59% 69% 42% 60% 39% 44% Support now 7 5 7 9 7 8 7 10 7 Oppose 29 17 40 25 19 38 24 45 40 DK/NA 9 6 12 8 5 12 9 7 9 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 50% 65% 38% 49% 64% 37% 53% 24% Support now 7 9 7 5 5 8 7 7 Oppose 34 17 43 37 26 41 32 49 DK/NA 10 9 12 8 5 14 9 20 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 50% 67% 40% 51% 62% 40% 54% 19% Support now 7 5 8 7 7 8 8 7 Oppose 32 21 41 34 25 39 28 65 DK/NA 10 7 12 9 6 14 10 9
17. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas off shore?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Support 60% 86% 38% 60% 62% 57% 62% 41% 64% Oppose 36 11 57 37 35 37 34 51 35 DK/NA 4 3 5 3 2 6 4 8 1 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 64% 87% 48% 61% 66% 63% 66% 56% Oppose 31 10 45 35 31 31 30 34 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 3 6 4 10 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 64% 84% 54% 62% 64% 65% 65% 61% Oppose 30 12 39 35 32 28 29 37 DK/NA 6 4 7 3 4 7 6 2
17b. COMBINED RESULTS Q17 AND Q17a To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas off shore?(If support q17)Previously, did you oppose drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas off shore?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Always Support 50% 75% 28% 50% 53% 47% 54% 24% 56% Support now 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 18 7 Oppose 36 11 57 37 35 37 34 51 35 DK/NA 4 3 5 3 2 6 4 8 1 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 57% 78% 41% 53% 59% 54% 58% 40% Support now 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 16 Oppose 31 10 45 35 31 31 30 34 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 3 6 4 10 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 56% 78% 44% 53% 56% 56% 57% 52% Support now 8 6 9 9 7 9 8 10 Oppose 30 12 39 35 32 28 29 37 DK/NA 6 4 7 3 4 7 6 2
18. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Drilling for new oil in the Alaskan national wildlife refuge?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Support 53% 80% 28% 56% 63% 44% 57% 29% 48% Oppose 42 17 65 40 36 47 38 61 48 DK/NA 5 3 7 3 2 9 5 10 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 55% 80% 39% 50% 61% 49% 58% 28% Oppose 40 17 53 47 36 43 38 62 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 3 7 4 10 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 55% 80% 41% 53% 56% 54% 57% 31% Oppose 41 17 55 42 42 40 39 64 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 2 6 4 6
18b. COMBINED RESULTS Q18 AND Q18a To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Drilling for new oil in the Alaskan national wildlife refuge?(If support q18)Previously, did you oppose drilling for new oil in the Alaskan national wildlife refuge?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Always Support 44% 68% 22% 48% 54% 36% 48% 24% 42% Support now 8 12 6 8 8 8 9 5 6 Oppose 42 17 65 40 36 47 38 61 48 DK/NA 5 3 7 3 2 9 5 10 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 48% 73% 31% 43% 55% 41% 50% 24% Support now 7 7 8 7 6 9 8 4 Oppose 40 17 53 47 36 43 38 62 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 3 7 4 10 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 48% 73% 34% 45% 50% 46% 50% 27% Support now 7 7 7 8 6 8 7 4 Oppose 41 17 55 42 42 40 39 64 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 2 6 4 6
19. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - A government funded program to develop renewable energy sources like solar power, wind power and biofuels?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Support 87% 81% 93% 88% 87% 87% 87% 82% 89% Oppose 10 16 5 10 12 8 10 10 9 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 1 5 3 8 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 87% 80% 94% 87% 84% 89% 87% 85% Oppose 10 17 3 8 13 7 10 7 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 8 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 87% 81% 94% 86% 85% 88% 88% 81% Oppose 10 15 4 11 13 8 9 15 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 4
19b. COMBINED RESULTS Q19 AND Q19a To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - A government funded program to develop renewable energy sources like solar power, wind power and biofuels?(If support q19) Previously, did you oppose a government funded program to develop renewable energy sources like solar power, wind power and biofuels?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Always Support 83% 77% 88% 85% 83% 83% 85% 71% 82% Support now 4 4 5 3 3 4 2 11 7 Oppose 10 16 5 10 12 8 10 10 9 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 1 5 3 8 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 84% 76% 91% 85% 81% 86% 84% 81% Support now 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 Oppose 10 17 3 8 13 7 10 7 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 8 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 83% 79% 88% 81% 81% 84% 85% 73% Support now 4 3 5 5 4 4 3 8 Oppose 10 15 4 11 13 8 9 15 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 4
20. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's stockpile of oil set aside for emergencies and shortages?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Support 45% 40% 53% 41% 39% 51% 44% 56% 48% Oppose 45 51 39 50 55 36 48 34 40 DK/NA 9 9 8 9 6 13 8 10 12 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 48% 44% 56% 46% 43% 53% 47% 61% Oppose 42 49 35 43 51 34 43 33 DK/NA 10 7 10 10 6 13 10 6 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 46% 40% 56% 37% 39% 52% 47% 46% Oppose 45 53 34 54 55 36 45 41 DK/NA 9 8 10 9 6 11 8 12
20b. COMBINED RESULTS Q20 AND Q20a To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's stockpile of oil set aside for emergencies and shortages? (If support q20)Previously, did you oppose releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's stockpile of oil set aside for emergencies and shortages?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Always Support 38% 32% 43% 35% 32% 43% 37% 45% 38% Support now 8 8 10 7 7 8 7 11 10 Oppose 45 51 39 50 55 36 48 34 40 DK/NA 9 9 8 9 6 13 8 10 12 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 41% 37% 49% 38% 37% 44% 39% 57% Support now 7 6 6 9 6 8 8 4 Oppose 42 49 35 43 51 34 43 33 DK/NA 10 7 10 10 6 13 10 6 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 41% 34% 51% 33% 34% 47% 42% 42% Support now 5 6 4 4 4 6 5 4 Oppose 45 53 34 54 55 36 45 41 DK/NA 9 8 10 9 6 11 8 12
21. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Mandating higher mileage standards for cars?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Support 75% 72% 80% 77% 76% 74% 79% 58% 73% Oppose 19 22 15 19 21 18 17 32 22 DK/NA 6 6 5 4 3 8 5 10 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 74% 66% 78% 79% 76% 72% 76% 59% Oppose 20 26 17 17 21 20 19 33 DK/NA 6 8 5 4 3 8 5 8 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 78% 74% 80% 79% 78% 78% 81% 59% Oppose 18 21 14 17 21 15 15 27 DK/NA 4 4 5 4 1 7 3 14
21b. COMBINED RESULTS Q21 AND Q21a To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Mandating higher mileage standards for cars? (If support q21)Previously, did you oppose mandating higher mileage standards for cars?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Always Support 70% 69% 74% 72% 71% 69% 74% 52% 65% Support now 5 3 5 5 5 5 4 6 8 Oppose 19 22 15 19 21 18 17 32 22 DK/NA 6 6 5 4 3 8 5 10 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 70% 61% 73% 76% 71% 69% 72% 55% Support now 4 5 5 3 5 4 4 4 Oppose 20 26 17 17 21 20 19 33 DK/NA 6 8 5 4 3 8 5 8 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Always Support 73% 69% 75% 74% 72% 73% 76% 54% Support now 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 Oppose 18 21 14 17 21 15 15 27 DK/NA 4 4 5 4 1 7 3 14
22. Which is the best way to help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil - A) building new nuclear power plants, B) drilling offshore and in Alaska, C) developing renewable energy sources like solar power, wind power and biofuels, D) releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or E) mandating higher mileage standards for cars?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His A) Nuclear power 8% 10% 7% 9% 11% 6% 8% 11% 10% B) Drilling 22 39 6 22 22 22 25 9 20 C) Renewable energy 51 38 63 52 52 51 51 51 55 D) Strategic reserve 5 2 8 3 3 6 4 9 4 E) High mileage cars 6 3 8 8 6 6 6 12 2 DK/NA 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 10 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Nuclear power 7% 12% 4% 6% 9% 4% 7% 3% B) Drilling 20 34 12 16 22 18 21 15 C) Renewable energy 57 40 69 60 52 62 57 58 D) Strategic reserve 5 4 5 5 3 6 4 7 E) High mileage cars 7 3 8 10 7 7 7 11 DK/NA 5 7 3 4 6 3 4 7 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A )Nuclear power 8% 13% 4% 8% 10% 6% 8% 4% B) Drilling 18 34 12 13 18 19 20 5 C) Renewable energy 55 36 63 65 54 57 54 67 D) Strategic reserve 5 4 7 3 3 8 5 9 E) High mileage cars 7 6 8 7 8 6 6 11 DK/NA 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 6
23. Regardless of whom you support, which candidate for President - Barack Obama or John McCain - has the best program for helping solve the energy crisis and making America less dependent on foreign oil?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Obama 34% 8% 64% 28% 32% 36% 29% 71% 38% McCain 32 63 6 33 37 27 36 6 27 DK/NA 34 29 30 38 31 37 35 23 35 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 34% 6% 62% 30% 35% 33% 29% 78% McCain 33 67 9 28 35 31 36 3 DK/NA 33 27 28 42 30 36 34 19 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 36% 9% 59% 33% 36% 35% 33% 71% McCain 30 59 14 27 34 27 33 4 DK/NA 34 32 28 40 29 38 34 25
24. Regarding the upcoming presidential election, would you rather the new president - Focus more on development of new sources of oil, natural gas, or nuclear power which some say could be a risk to the environment or focus more on wind, solar, and biofuels, which some say could take longer to produce significant amounts of energy?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oil/Gas/Nuclear 38% 56% 23% 39% 44% 33% 42% 28% 29% Wind/Solar/Bio 53 36 67 54 48 57 51 60 60 DK/NA 9 8 9 7 8 10 7 13 11 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oil/Gas/Nuclear 35% 57% 23% 29% 41% 30% 36% 28% Wind/Solar/Bio 57 37 68 65 53 62 57 56 DK/NA 7 6 8 6 7 8 7 16 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oil/Gas/Nuclear 35% 57% 23% 32% 38% 32% 36% 26% Wind/Solar/Bio 56 37 67 62 54 58 56 62 DK/NA 9 5 10 6 8 10 8 12
25. Regarding the upcoming presidential election, would you rather the new president - Focus more on development of new sources of oil and natural gas or focus more on conserving energy?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oil/Gas 46% 59% 32% 50% 47% 46% 48% 36% 51% Conserving energy 46 32 63 44 45 47 45 56 43 DK/NA 7 8 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oil/Gas 47% 60% 41% 41% 47% 47% 48% 40% Conserving energy 46 33 55 51 46 46 45 52 DK/NA 7 7 4 8 7 7 7 8 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oil/Gas 44% 59% 40% 36% 41% 46% 44% 47% Conserving energy 50 34 56 58 52 49 50 49 DK/NA 6 7 4 6 6 5 6 4
26. Which is more important to you when you decide how to vote for President - A candidate's position on energy policy or a candidate's position on the war in Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Energy policy 44% 42% 41% 53% 51% 38% 45% 45% 39% War in Iraq 45 48 50 38 38 52 45 44 52 DK/NA 10 11 9 9 11 10 10 11 9 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Energy policy 48% 48% 45% 51% 49% 47% 49% 43% War in Iraq 43 41 48 40 42 43 43 45 DK/NA 9 11 7 9 9 9 9 12 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Energy policy 49% 46% 50% 52% 49% 50% 51% 33% War in Iraq 40 42 39 41 40 40 39 58 DK/NA 11 12 11 7 11 11 10 9
27. President Bush has lifted a ban on drilling for oil and natural gas in previously closed off-shore areas. Do you think Congress should go along and end this ban or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 60% 81% 39% 62% 62% 58% 61% 59% 60% No 33 14 51 34 32 34 33 34 34 DK/NA 7 5 10 5 5 8 7 7 7 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 62% 79% 48% 61% 65% 58% 63% 53% No 32 16 42 34 32 31 31 34 DK/NA 7 5 10 5 3 11 6 13 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 60% 84% 46% 57% 64% 57% 62% 36% No 33 11 45 38 32 34 32 48 DK/NA 7 5 8 5 4 9 6 16