Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * August 26, 2008 * Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Vo - Quinnipiac University

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August 26, 2008 - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters Want Dem President, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; But Obama-McCain Matchup Remains Tight --- FLORIDA: McCain 47 - Obama 43; OHIO: Obama 44 - McCain 43; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 - McCain 42

Word format Likely voters in three critical swing states want to see a Democrat elected President this year, but Illinois Sen. Barack Obama begins the Democratic Convention trailing Arizona Sen. John McCain in Florida; tying him in Ohio and leading by seven percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls show:
Florida: McCain leads 47 - 43 percent, compared to a 46 - 44 percent Obama lead July 31; Ohio: Obama has 44 percent to McCain's 43 percent, compared to a 46 - 44 percent Obama lead least time; Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 49 - 42 percent, unchanged from July 31.
By a 44 - 39 percent margin, Florida voters want a Democrat in the White House. Ohio voters want a Democrat 44 - 35 percent and Pennsylvania voters are seeing blue 50 - 32 percent.
"Eight weeks ago, Sen. Barack Obama was on top in all three of these key swing states and that would make his election almost a sure thing. Times have changed and the election is now very much a tossup in these states. Sen. Obama needs this convention to give his campaign a jump start," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Obama needs to close the sale with voters who want a Democrat, but because of Sen. McCain's strength at this point, they don't want this Democrat," said Brown. "Much of the reason for this disparity is that Sen. McCain is drawing support from voters who say they don't want a Republican in the White House.
"In fact, McCain is running an average of 9 percentage points ahead of the 'generic Republican.' Whether this reflects Obama's weakness or McCain's strength, the effect has been to make a close race out of a campaign many initially expected to be an easy Democratic win.
"If Obama picked Sen. Joseph Biden to solidify his foreign affairs credentials, he did so with good reason. By wide margins voters - even some Obama supporters - trust McCain more to handle terrorism and international problems.
"By smaller margins, Obama still is viewed as best able to fix the economy, which voters overwhelmingly see as the most important issue in the election."
"The electorate is split by gender and age. The gender gap is not new; Democrats have been winning among women and losing men for decades. But it's larger than in some recent elections and that is because of the white vote - since Obama is going to get virtually all the African American vote, male or female. But the large age gap is new. This could be the first generational election in recent history."
President George W. Bush's approval ratings are:
32 - 64 percent in Florida; 30 - 65 percent in Ohio; 25 - 70 percent in Pennsylvania. Florida
Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31.
By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama.
The economy is the most important issue in the election, 52 percent of Florida voters say, as 13 percent cite the war in Iraq; 12 percent list terrorism and 9 percent say health care.
Naming which candidate they trust more to handle key issues, Florida voters trust:
Obama 46 - 42 percent to handle the energy crisis; Obama 46 - 44 percent to handle the economy; McCain 45 - 42 percent to handle a natural disaster such as Hurricane Katrina; McCain 56 - 33 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the U.S.; McCain 53 - 35 percent to handle relations with Russia; McCain 54 - 36 percent to handle a potential conflict between Israel and Iran.
"Sen. McCain's lead in Florida is largely built upon his margin over Sen. Obama among independent voters, the group that probably will decide the state's 27 electoral votes," Brown said. "One edge for McCain is his lead over Obama when it comes to who voters view the candidates favorably and unfavorably."
Ohio
Obama leads 51 - 37 percent among Ohio women, while McCain leads 50 - 37 percent with men. White voters back McCain 49 - 38 percent, but Obama sweeps black voters 89 - 3 percent. The Democrat also leads 51 - 41 percent among voters 18 to 34, while voters 35 to 54 split 43 - 43 percent and voters over 55 go 44 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 42 - 38 percent.
McCain gets a 50 - 34 percent favorability in Ohio to Obama's 49 - 32 percent.
For 53 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, while 16 percent cite the war in Iraq; 12 percent list health care and 8 percent say terrorism.
Naming which candidate they trust more to handle key issues, Ohio voters trust:
Obama 44 - 42 percent to handle the energy crisis; Obama 47 - 42 percent to handle the economy; Obama 47 - 39 percent to handle a natural disaster; McCain 55 - 34 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the U.S.; McCain 51 - 37 percent to handle relations with Russia; McCain 52 - 38 percent to handle a potential conflict between Israel and Iran.
"The big question in Ohio is how much the gender gap will decide the election. Gender support for each candidate is a virtual mirror of the other. McCain is winning men by the same margin that Obama is carrying women. Something has to give one way or the other," Brown said. Pennsylvania
Obama leads 53 - 37 percent with women as McCain leads 47 - 43 percent among men. White voters back McCain 47 - 43 percent while the Democrat leads 91 - 3 percent among black voters. Obama leads 57 - 40 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 49 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54. Voters over 55 go 44 percent to McCain and 43 percent to Obama. Independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 38 percent.
McCain gets a 50 - 35 percent favorability, compared to Obama's 53 - 32 percent.
The economy is the most important issue, 52 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 16 percent list the war in Iraq; 11 percent cite health care and 10 percent say terrorism.
Naming which candidate they trust more to handle key issues, Ohio voters trust:
Obama 50 - 39 percent to handle the energy crisis; Obama 50 - 40 percent to handle the economy; Obama 51 - 37 percent to handle a natural disaster; McCain 52 - 37 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the U.S.; McCain 49 - 39 percent to handle relations with Russia; McCain 49 - 41 percent to handle a potential conflict between Israel and Iran.
"The Obama campaign hopes that Sen. Biden's Scranton roots will give the Democrats a boost in Pennsylvania. This poll was mostly done before Biden's selection was announced so it is too early for any indication whether that will turn out to be the case. Obama's still in good shape in Pennsylvania, but his lead has been cut by almost half in the last two months," Brown said.
From August 17 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,069 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent; 1,234 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,234 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FLORIDA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 43% 10% 78% 39% 41% 45% 35% 87% McCain 47 83 16 47 50 45 55 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 3 3 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 4 6 12 6 10 8 7 IMP ISSUE Q4 North/ War Econ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 62% 50% 39% 43% 43% 34% 50% McCain 33 40 54 47 50 47 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 2 1 3 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 8 4 8 6 15 10 WHITE........................... AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Cath Obama 56% 42% 39% 33% 40% 36% 34% 35% McCain 37 48 52 57 50 55 56 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 2 1 3 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 8 8 7 8 6 10 8 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 PARTY PREFERENCE Q5 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Dem Rep DK/NA Obama 11% 81% 76% 91% 6% 63% 88% 1% 24% McCain 83 9 14 7 89 25 6 96 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 7 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 8 10 2 3 10 5 2 27 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 Obama 43 46 47 McCain 47 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 8 7 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 FL Tot Obama McCain Made up 83% 83% 84% Might change 15 14 15 DK/NA 2 2 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... OHIO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 44% 5% 80% 42% 37% 51% 38% 89% McCain 43 89 12 38 50 37 49 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 11 5 8 17 11 11 11 5 IMP ISSUE Q4 War Econ Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Obama 48% 49% 46% 47% 49% 38% 45% 32% McCain 36 40 46 40 29 47 43 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 16 10 7 11 20 12 9 13 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 51% 43% 42% 36% 44% 33% 43% 22% 41% McCain 41 43 44 50 47 55 44 65 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 2 1 2 1 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 12 12 13 7 10 12 12 12 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 PARTY PREFERENCE Q5 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Dem Rep DK/NA Obama 11% 79% 63% 87% 7% 64% 88% 2% 22% McCain 79 11 23 8 82 23 6 94 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 2 2 - 1 6 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 8 12 4 8 12 6 4 35 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 Obama 44 46 48 McCain 43 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 11 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 OH Tot Obama McCain Made up 80% 81% 79% Might change 18 18 18 DK/NA 2 1 3
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... PENNSYLVANIA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 49% 13% 76% 48% 43% 53% 43% 91% McCain 42 81 15 38 47 37 47 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 5 9 12 8 9 9 6 IMP ISSUE Q4 War Econ Algny Phily NEast SEast NWest SWest Cntrl Obama 54% 55% 44% 72% 39% 55% 62% 40% 39% McCain 33 37 44 20 50 36 34 50 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 12 7 11 9 9 8 3 9 9 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 57% 49% 43% 42% 46% 40% 46% 26% 36% McCain 40 41 44 46 49 51 43 66 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 8 12 11 4 7 10 7 13 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 PARTY PREFERENCE Q5 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Dem Rep DK/NA Obama 17% 81% 60% 95% 9% 65% 87% 3% 24% McCain 74 12 25 2 87 24 8 96 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 - - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 6 14 2 4 10 5 1 31 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 Obama 49 49 52 McCain 42 42 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 9 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 PA Tot Obama McCain Made up 78% 82% 75% Might change 20 17 23 DK/NA 2 1 2
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 51% 22% 78% 49% 49% 52% 44% 85% Unfavorable 36 63 14 35 41 32 42 10 Hvn't hrd enough 10 11 7 11 9 11 11 5 REFUSED 3 4 1 4 2 4 3 - OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 49% 14% 77% 51% 46% 52% 44% 87% Unfavorable 32 67 10 26 40 26 37 5 Hvn't hrd enough 15 16 10 18 12 18 16 7 REFUSED 3 3 3 5 3 4 4 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 53% 27% 74% 51% 47% 58% 48% 91% Unfavorable 32 60 12 30 38 27 36 3 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 12 17 13 13 14 5 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 55% 84% 31% 54% 60% 51% 64% 14% Unfavorable 32 11 53 31 28 35 27 63 Hvn't hrd enough 10 2 14 10 9 11 7 21 REFUSED 3 3 2 6 2 4 2 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 50% 84% 25% 48% 58% 43% 54% 20% Unfavorable 34 7 57 35 32 36 31 63 Hvn't hrd enough 12 7 13 13 6 17 12 14 REFUSED 3 2 4 3 3 4 3 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 50% 82% 27% 51% 55% 46% 54% 18% Unfavorable 35 11 57 30 33 37 32 64 Hvn't hrd enough 12 4 14 16 10 14 11 17 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 1
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 12% 23% 2% 11% 15% 8% 13% 4% The war in Iraq 13 10 16 12 13 13 12 16 The economy 52 47 56 53 49 54 50 55 Illegal immigration 7 9 4 8 9 5 9 - Health care 9 4 16 6 5 12 8 19 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 5 5 4 5 6 4 5 1 DK/NA 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 8% 15% 2% 10% 10% 6% 9% - The war in Iraq 16 12 16 17 16 16 16 9 The economy 53 51 59 49 54 52 52 60 Illegal immigration 5 8 4 5 6 5 6 1 Health care 12 8 16 14 9 15 11 30 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 - DK/NA 2 3 - 3 1 3 2 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 10% 19% 4% 9% 12% 7% 11% 3% The war in Iraq 16 14 19 16 17 15 16 16 The economy 52 47 55 55 50 55 52 59 Illegal immigration 4 7 2 4 6 3 4 3 Health care 11 9 15 9 7 14 11 15 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 5 1 3 - DK/NA 3 3 3 3 2 4 3 5
5. Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election - that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Democrat 44% 7% 85% 39% 39% 47% 36% 84% Republican 39 82 6 33 44 34 46 4 DK/NA 18 11 9 28 17 18 18 12 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Democrat 44% 4% 85% 37% 37% 51% 39% 83% Republican 35 83 6 27 41 30 40 2 DK/NA 21 13 9 37 22 19 21 15 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Democrat 50% 10% 86% 42% 46% 53% 45% 93% Republican 32 73 5 25 36 28 36 1 DK/NA 18 16 10 32 18 19 19 5
6. How well do you feel you know Barack Obama's positions on the issues? Very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very well 34% 36% 36% 33% 40% 30% 33% 32% Smwht well 45 39 51 44 38 50 44 58 Not too well 11 13 8 11 11 11 12 4 Not well at all 8 10 4 10 9 7 9 3 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very well 29% 29% 32% 26% 32% 26% 27% 44% Smwht well 50 43 55 51 49 51 50 50 Not too well 14 17 7 17 12 16 15 3 Not well at all 6 10 5 5 7 6 7 3 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very well 29% 27% 33% 25% 32% 27% 27% 38% Smwht well 53 50 55 54 50 56 53 58 Not too well 13 17 10 14 13 13 14 4 Not well at all 4 5 2 6 4 4 5 - DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 -
7. As you've gotten to know more about Barack Obama during the Presidential campaign, would you say that you like him more or like him less?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More 46% 19% 71% 44% 44% 47% 40% 79% Less 40 68 18 39 43 38 46 9 NO CHANGE(VOL) 7 9 5 7 8 7 8 7 DK/NA 7 4 5 10 6 8 6 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More 44% 14% 68% 45% 39% 49% 40% 81% Less 40 72 19 36 47 34 44 8 NO CHANGE(VOL) 10 9 9 12 10 10 10 8 DK/NA 6 5 4 7 4 7 6 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More 47% 23% 65% 50% 42% 52% 42% 95% Less 40 66 20 36 44 36 44 4 NO CHANGE(VOL) 8 6 10 8 9 7 9 - DK/NA 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 1
8. How well do you feel you know John McCain's positions on the issues? Very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very well 38% 44% 31% 41% 46% 32% 40% 20% Smwht well 45 46 45 45 42 48 47 47 Not too well 9 5 13 7 7 11 7 20 Not well at all 7 5 10 5 4 9 5 13 DK/NA 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very well 30% 40% 22% 30% 37% 23% 31% 24% Smwht well 51 51 48 55 48 53 52 42 Not too well 10 6 16 7 7 13 10 10 Not well at all 8 2 13 8 6 10 6 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very well 30% 33% 27% 29% 37% 24% 31% 23% Smwht well 52 59 50 47 49 55 53 41 Not too well 13 6 17 16 10 16 13 20 Not well at all 4 1 5 6 4 5 3 15 DK/NA - - - 1 1 - - -
9. As you've gotten to know more about John McCain during the Presidential campaign, would you say that you like him more or like him less?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More 44% 69% 23% 42% 44% 43% 50% 16% Less 39 15 62 39 36 41 32 68 NO CHANGE(VOL) 11 11 9 11 13 9 11 9 DK/NA 7 5 7 7 7 7 6 7 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More 43% 77% 19% 40% 47% 38% 48% 8% Less 39 9 65 39 35 43 34 74 NO CHANGE(VOL) 12 11 10 15 13 11 12 11 DK/NA 6 4 6 6 5 7 6 7 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More 41% 68% 22% 39% 45% 38% 44% 18% Less 42 17 61 42 40 45 39 65 NO CHANGE(VOL) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 DK/NA 6 3 6 7 4 7 5 6
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 32% 63% 7% 29% 34% 30% 37% 4% Disapprove 64 32 90 68 63 65 59 92 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 66% 6% 27% 34% 27% 34% 5% Disapprove 65 26 94 68 63 67 61 92 DK/NA 5 8 1 5 4 6 5 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 25% 55% 5% 20% 27% 23% 28% 4% Disapprove 70 38 93 74 68 72 67 92 DK/NA 5 7 3 6 5 6 5 4
11. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 12% 15% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% 7% B) Real estate vals 15 13 15 17 15 15 16 9 C) Health care cost 20 17 25 21 18 22 21 15 D) Gasoline prices 30 35 25 32 33 27 29 36 E) Food prices 16 12 18 14 14 17 13 25 DK/NA 8 8 7 7 9 7 8 9 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 14% 15% 13% 14% 14% 15% 14% 11% B) Real estate vals 8 11 6 9 9 8 9 6 C) Health care cost 25 21 27 26 24 26 26 21 D) Gasoline prices 32 35 31 33 34 31 32 39 E) Food prices 15 13 18 14 14 16 14 18 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 5 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 12% 13% 12% 10% 13% 12% 13% 7% B) Real estate vals 9 7 11 9 11 8 9 13 C) Health care cost 25 21 28 25 20 29 25 29 D) Gasoline prices 29 36 23 30 34 24 30 13 E) Food prices 21 18 23 21 19 22 19 32 DK/NA 4 4 3 5 4 4 3 6
12. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 46% 18% 74% 43% 44% 48% 39% 83% McCain 42 74 14 43 46 39 49 9 DK/NA 11 8 12 14 10 13 12 8 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 44% 8% 75% 44% 40% 48% 40% 83% McCain 42 83 15 37 47 38 47 12 DK/NA 13 9 10 19 13 14 13 5 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 19% 74% 50% 46% 54% 47% 79% McCain 39 70 17 36 45 34 42 15 DK/NA 11 11 9 14 9 12 11 6
13. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle relations with Russia - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 35% 9% 65% 32% 37% 34% 28% 71% McCain 53 85 23 56 56 51 62 12 DK/NA 11 6 12 13 7 15 11 17 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 37% 4% 65% 34% 33% 40% 32% 78% McCain 51 88 24 51 58 45 57 8 DK/NA 12 8 11 15 9 15 11 14 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 39% 12% 66% 32% 36% 42% 34% 81% McCain 49 80 23 51 54 44 54 12 DK/NA 12 8 12 17 10 14 13 7
14. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle a terrorist incident in the United States - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 33% 6% 59% 32% 33% 33% 25% 67% McCain 56 89 27 56 61 52 64 15 DK/NA 11 5 14 12 6 14 10 17 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 34% 3% 64% 30% 28% 39% 29% 72% McCain 55 92 25 56 62 49 61 15 DK/NA 11 6 11 14 10 12 10 13 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 37% 9% 63% 30% 32% 41% 33% 73% McCain 52 86 25 54 59 46 57 18 DK/NA 11 5 12 16 9 13 11 9
15. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle a natural disaster in the United States on the scale of Hurricane Katrina - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 42% 11% 72% 40% 42% 42% 35% 81% McCain 45 77 17 46 48 43 51 9 DK/NA 13 12 11 14 10 15 13 10 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 47% 10% 76% 48% 42% 51% 42% 88% McCain 39 77 13 34 44 34 44 4 DK/NA 15 13 10 18 14 15 15 8 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 51% 18% 75% 54% 47% 55% 46% 87% McCain 37 70 16 34 43 32 41 4 DK/NA 12 12 9 13 10 13 12 9
16. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 46% 14% 77% 43% 44% 48% 37% 89% McCain 44 77 16 43 48 41 52 7 DK/NA 10 9 7 14 8 11 11 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 47% 7% 78% 48% 42% 51% 42% 89% McCain 42 85 14 36 49 36 47 5 DK/NA 11 8 8 16 10 13 11 6 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 17% 76% 48% 46% 52% 45% 90% McCain 40 75 15 38 44 36 44 8 DK/NA 11 9 9 13 9 12 12 3
17. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle a potential conflict between Israel and Iran - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 36% 10% 61% 35% 34% 38% 28% 74% McCain 54 84 27 54 59 49 63 11 DK/NA 10 5 12 10 6 13 10 15 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 38% 5% 70% 35% 34% 42% 33% 84% McCain 52 89 23 51 58 46 57 12 DK/NA 10 6 7 15 7 12 10 4 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 41% 11% 65% 39% 37% 44% 36% 80% McCain 49 82 23 50 55 43 53 11 DK/NA 11 6 12 12 8 13 10 9