Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * September 11, 2008 * Palin Boosts McCain In Florida - Quinnipiac University

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September 11, 2008 - Palin Boosts McCain In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; But Obama Leads In Two Of Three Battlegrounds --- FLORIDA: McCain 50 - Obama 43; OHIO: Obama 49 - McCain 44; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 48 - McCain 45

Word format Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin apparently is attracting white women likely voters to Arizona Sen. John McCain, helping him pull away from Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in Florida and narrow the gap with the Democrat in Pennsylvania, even as he is slipping slightly in Ohio, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
Florida: McCain leads 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 43 percent August 26; Ohio: Obama is up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 44 - 43 percent last time; Pennsylvania: Obama leads 48 - 45 percent, compared to 49 - 42 percent.
Voters in all three states say Sen. McCain's selection of Gov. Palin is a good choice: 60 - 26 percent in Florida, 57 - 30 percent in Ohio and 55 - 33 percent in Pennsylvania.
Since August 26, McCain's support among white women is up four percentage points in Ohio and five points in Pennsylvania, and dropped two points in Florida, where it was high to start.
"White women, a key demographic group in any national election, appear to be in play, with some movement towards Sen. McCain in Pennsylvania and Ohio," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Obviously Gov. Sarah Palin is having the impact that Sen. McCain hoped when he selected her."
"The size of Sen. McCain's margin with white voters overall tells the tale. In Florida, where McCain leads among whites by 24 points, that is a large enough cushion for him to survive Obama's almost total control of the black vote, and strong support among Hispanics."
"But in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where McCain leads by just six or seven points among whites, he's behind in the total count."
"Overall, even among many Democrats, Palin gets good grades. By almost a two-to-one margin, voters see McCain's choice of her as a good one, roughly the same who feel that way about Sen. Joe Biden."
President George W. Bush's approval ratings are:
33 - 63 percent in Florida; 30 - 65 percent in Ohio; 26 - 70 percent in Pennsylvania. Florida
Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55.
Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26.
By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden.
The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy.
Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day.
"Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats."
Ohio
Obama leads 52 - 42 percent among Ohio women, compared to 51 - 37 percent August 26. Men split 47 - 47 percent. Obama leads 64 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34, while voters 35 to 54 split with 48 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 back McCain 48 - 44 percent.
Independent voters back McCain 47 - 43 percent, compared to a 42 - 38 percent Obama lead August 26, and 28 percent of former Clinton supporters now back McCain, compared to 23 percent last time.
McCain gets a 53 - 34 percent favorability in Ohio, identical to Obama's 53 - 33 percent. Palin's favorability is 41 - 22 percent, compared to 36 - 22 percent for Biden.
For 52 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, while 11 percent cite health care; 10 percent say the war in Iraq; 9 percent list energy policy and 8 percent say terrorism.
The choice of a running mate will have little impact on their vote, 61 percent of Ohio likely voters say.
"Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama are getting the same level of party loyalty and the Republican is even winning slightly among independents. But Obama is ahead because there are so many more people who identify as Democrats - a legacy of the 2006 election and scandals involving former Gov. Robert Taft's administration," Brown said. Pennsylvania
Obama leads 51 - 41 percent with women, compared to 53 - 37 percent August 26. McCain leads 51 - 45 percent among men. Obama leads 58 - 38 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and gets 49 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain's 47 percent. Voters over 55 back McCain 50 - 43 percent.
Independent voters split with 45 percent for the Republican and 44 percent for the Democrat. This compares to a 48 - 38 percent Obama lead August 26. Among former Clinton supporters, 22 percent support McCain, compared to 25 percent August 26.
McCain gets a 54 - 34 percent favorability, compared to Obama's 56 - 29 percent. Palin's favorability is 39 - 26 percent, while Biden gets a 53 - 22 percent score.
The economy is the most important issue, 51 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 12 percent list the war in Iraq; 11 percent cite health care; 10 percent list energy policy and 8 percent say terrorism.
The choice of a vice presidential candidate will have little impact on their November vote, 59 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say.
"Sen. McCain has narrowed the gap in Pennsylvania by wiping out Sen. Obama's lead among independent voters. But Obama still holds a three-point edge by convincing previously uncommitted Hillary Clinton primary voters and Catholics to move into his camp - the Catholics perhaps because of some help from running mate Joe Biden, a Catholic from Scranton," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
From September 5 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,032 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent; 1,367 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,001 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... FLORIDA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 43% 7% 83% 43% 41% 45% 55% 41% 39% McCain 50 91 10 50 54 47 37 52 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 3 7 6 5 7 7 7 6 IMP ISSUE Q6 North/ War Econ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 59% 52% 34% 36% 43% 43% 56% McCain 30 43 58 57 50 52 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 11 4 6 5 6 6 8 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 35% 31% 43% 29% 40% 20% 38% McCain 59 61 53 65 54 74 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ12 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 10% 85% 69% 96% 5% 66% McCain 86 8 24 2 93 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 6 6 2 2 8 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 43 43 46 47 McCain 50 47 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 8 7 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 85% 83% 86% Might change 14 17 12 DK/NA 1 - 2
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... OHIO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 49% 10% 87% 43% 47% 52% 64% 46% 44% McCain 44 86 10 47 47 42 33 48 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 3 8 5 6 2 5 7 IMP ISSUE Q6 War Econ Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Obama 62% 58% 53% 53% 53% 35% 45% 42% McCain 32 36 44 38 38 59 52 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - 1 2 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 3 8 6 6 3 2 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath BLACK Obama 43% 44% 41% 41% 45% 30% 42% 95% McCain 50 49 53 52 48 66 50 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 5 5 6 4 8 1 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ12 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 15% 84% 65% 90% 6% 72% McCain 80 11 28 8 90 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 7 2 5 5 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 49 44 46 48 McCain 44 43 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 11 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 83% 81% 85% Might change 15 16 13 DK/NA 2 3 2
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... PENNSYLVANIA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 48% 9% 82% 44% 45% 51% 58% 49% 43% McCain 45 87 15 45 51 41 38 47 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 4 3 10 4 7 4 4 6 IMP ISSUE Q6 War Econ Algny Phily NEast SEast NWest SWest Cntrl Obama 54% 56% 53% 71% 47% 43% 48% 30% 49% McCain 36 40 41 24 47 49 46 59 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 4 6 4 5 8 4 10 3 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 44% 43% 45% 43% 45% 28% 45% McCain 50 50 50 53 48 64 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 4 4 7 7 4 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ12 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 11% 81% 72% 88% 7% 66% McCain 82 15 22 6 90 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 4 5 5 3 6 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 48 49 49 52 McCain 45 42 42 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 9 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 79% 81% 77% Might change 20 17 22 DK/NA 1 2 1
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 21% 79% 51% 46% 52% Unfavorable 35 65 8 31 39 32 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 12 14 13 12 REFUSED 4 4 2 4 3 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 53% 24% 80% 49% 49% 56% 49% 90% Unfavorable 33 65 9 31 35 31 36 4 Hvn't hrd enough 12 8 10 18 14 11 13 5 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 56% 26% 81% 54% 53% 59% Unfavorable 29 58 8 26 34 24 Hvn't hrd enough 13 14 10 20 12 14 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 1 3
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 58% 88% 24% 61% 62% 55% Unfavorable 29 4 60 29 29 30 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 12 7 7 10 REFUSED 4 2 4 4 3 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 53% 87% 22% 58% 57% 49% 58% 17% Unfavorable 34 9 61 26 31 37 31 58 Hvn't hrd enough 10 3 13 13 9 11 9 19 REFUSED 3 1 4 3 3 3 3 6 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 54% 87% 30% 52% 61% 48% Unfavorable 34 7 58 28 30 36 Hvn't hrd enough 10 5 10 19 7 13 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 2
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 14% 63% 40% 38% 39% Unfavorable 28 53 5 26 32 25 Hvn't hrd enough 32 32 32 32 29 35 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 36% 16% 53% 35% 36% 36% 35% 49% Unfavorable 22 45 4 20 28 16 23 4 Hvn't hrd enough 41 38 42 45 35 47 40 47 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 53% 24% 74% 54% 54% 52% Unfavorable 22 44 5 21 28 16 Hvn't hrd enough 25 30 21 24 18 31 REFUSED 1 2 - 2 1 1
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 47% 79% 15% 47% 49% 45% Unfavorable 23 5 46 18 20 25 Hvn't hrd enough 30 15 39 35 30 29 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 41% 77% 12% 41% 44% 38% 45% 9% Unfavorable 22 5 35 23 22 22 20 31 Hvn't hrd enough 36 18 51 34 33 39 33 60 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 71% 17% 32% 42% 36% Unfavorable 26 5 40 28 26 25 Hvn't hrd enough 35 24 42 40 32 38 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 11% 21% 2% 11% 13% 9% The war in Iraq 12 7 19 10 12 11 The economy 49 39 55 57 47 52 Illegal immigration 3 4 - 3 3 2 Energy policy 8 14 4 6 9 6 Health care 9 3 16 8 8 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 5 2 3 4 4 DK/NA 5 8 2 2 4 6 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 8% 16% 2% 9% 9% 8% 9% 1% The war in Iraq 10 10 12 10 12 8 11 4 The economy 52 41 61 52 48 55 50 64 Illegal immigration 4 5 1 6 4 3 4 3 Energy policy 9 13 6 9 13 6 9 7 Health care 11 6 17 8 7 14 10 19 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 5 2 3 4 3 3 1 DK/NA 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 - PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 8% 16% 1% 8% 9% 6% The war in Iraq 12 11 14 11 12 12 The economy 51 44 59 48 49 53 Illegal immigration 3 4 2 6 3 3 Energy policy 10 15 5 13 16 5 Health care 11 5 15 10 8 14 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 1 4
7. Do you think John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Good choice 60% 88% 34% 61% 62% 59% Bad choice 26 7 47 27 25 27 DK/NA 13 5 19 12 13 13 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Good choice 57% 85% 31% 63% 59% 55% 62% 28% Bad choice 30 9 49 25 29 31 27 44 DK/NA 13 6 20 12 12 14 11 28 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Good choice 55% 84% 36% 49% 58% 52% Bad choice 33 8 50 36 34 32 DK/NA 12 7 14 15 8 15
8. Do you think Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Good choice 54% 36% 79% 50% 54% 54% Bad choice 29 44 10 31 31 27 DK/NA 17 20 11 19 15 19 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Good choice 53% 39% 68% 50% 52% 54% 51% 68% Bad choice 27 38 17 30 32 23 29 16 DK/NA 20 23 15 20 16 23 20 15 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Good choice 65% 45% 80% 66% 63% 66% Bad choice 23 37 12 23 29 18 DK/NA 12 19 7 11 8 15
9. Does John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President make you more likely to vote for McCain for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 28% 48% 10% 26% 32% 25% Less likely 19 4 36 19 16 23 Doesn't make diff 50 47 50 51 50 50 DK/NA 2 - 4 3 2 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 26% 47% 10% 24% 28% 24% 29% 8% Less likely 19 4 29 20 18 20 17 32 Doesn't make diff 53 47 58 54 52 54 52 60 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 24% 42% 13% 19% 25% 24% Less likely 23 4 34 30 23 22 Doesn't make diff 52 54 51 49 51 52 DK/NA 2 - 2 3 - 2
10. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 20% 4% 37% 23% 18% 22% Less likely 14 23 4 13 16 12 Doesn't make diff 63 71 56 62 64 62 DK/NA 3 2 4 1 2 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 18% 6% 26% 18% 18% 18% 15% 36% Less likely 11 15 6 13 14 8 12 2 Doesn't make diff 69 76 67 68 67 72 71 60 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 23% 10% 32% 28% 23% 24% Less likely 12 20 4 13 14 9 Doesn't make diff 62 67 62 56 62 63 DK/NA 2 3 2 3 1 3
11. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The vice presidential candidates picked by Barack Obama and John McCain have little to do with which man I will vote for president.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 58% 61% 61% 54% 63% 53% Disagree 38 36 34 43 32 43 DK/NA 4 4 5 3 4 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 61% 56% 64% 62% 61% 61% 60% 69% Disagree 35 39 31 36 35 34 36 29 DK/NA 4 5 5 2 4 5 5 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 59% 63% 57% 56% 64% 54% Disagree 36 34 36 41 33 40 DK/NA 5 3 7 3 3 6
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 33% 67% 5% 24% 37% 28% Disapprove 63 25 94 71 58 67 DK/NA 5 9 1 5 5 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 66% 5% 25% 32% 28% 33% 8% Disapprove 65 28 92 68 63 67 62 89 DK/NA 5 5 3 6 6 5 5 4 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 26% 58% 3% 23% 28% 24% Disapprove 70 37 96 69 69 71 DK/NA 4 5 1 8 2 5