Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * October 1, 2008 * Obama Over 50 Percent In Flori - Quinnipiac University

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October 1, 2008 - Obama Over 50 Percent In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Debate, Palin's Fade, Economy Put Democrat On Top ---

Word format FLORIDA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 - McCain 43 post-debate; OHIO: Obama 49 - McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 - McCain 42 post-debate; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 - McCain 39 post-debate Friday's presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls conducted before and after the debate show:
Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate; Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate; Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.
More than 84 percent of voters in each state say the debate did not change their mind. But by margins of 13 to 17 percent, voters in each state say Obama did a better job in the debate. And by margins of 15 to 27 percent, independent voters in each state say Obama won.
"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.
"Sen. McCain's problem is not with this or that demographic group. Although he still leads among white men, albeit by a smaller margin, his problems are across the electorate.
"Sen. Obama clearly won the debate, voters say. Their opinion of Gov. Sarah Palin has gone south and the Wall Street meltdown has been a dagger to McCain's political heart. Roughly a third of voters, and almost as large a share of the key independent vote, say McCain did more harm than good in trying to resolve the financial crisis, and the share of voters who see the economy as the top issue has risen from roughly half to six in ten."
President George W. Bush's approval ratings post-debate are among his lowest:
24 - 70 percent in Florida; 25 - 69 percent in Ohio; 23 - 72 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida
Even before Friday's debate, Florida voters had shifted from 50 - 43 percent for McCain in a September 11 Quinnipiac University poll to 49 - 43 percent for Obama.
Looking at post-debate numbers, Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 57 - 37 percent. McCain leads 50 - 45 percent edge among white voters.
Independent voters back Obama 52 - 40 percent, compared to 50 - 43 percent for McCain September 11.
Among the 79 percent of Florida voters who say they watched the debate, 49 percent said Obama did better, with 34 percent saying McCain won.
By a 58 - 33 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 52 - 39 percent for McCain.
Palin gets a negative 36 - 39 percent favorability, down from 47 - 23 percent September 11. Democratic running mate Joe Biden has a 47 - 27 percent favorability, up from 38 - 28 percent.
The economy is the most important issue in the election, 60 percent of Florida voters say, and voters post-debate trust Obama more than McCain 53 - 39 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 - 40 percent pre-debate.
Voters trust McCain more than Obama 52 - 41 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 51 - 42 percent pre-debate.
Post debate, voters say 53 - 20 percent that Obama's role in trying to solve the economic crisis has been helpful more than harmful, compared to 45 - 31 percent for McCain.
Florida voters oppose 42 - 36 percent the $700 billion plan to rescue the economy.
"During the past three weeks, Florida voters lost their faith in Sen. McCain. His net favorability dropped in half and Sen. Obama's almost doubled over the same period. One look at independents shows the massive change. Three weeks ago, McCain had a seven-point edge among Florida independents. Today, Obama leads among that group by 12 points," Brown said.
Ohio
Post-debate, Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among Ohio women and ties McCain 46 - 46 percent among men. Independent voters go 46 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain, compared to 47 - 43 percent for McCain September 11.
The 64 percent of voters who watched the debate say Obama did better 49 - 33 percent.
Obama gets a 54 - 32 percent favorability in Ohio, with 49 - 40 percent for McCain.
Palin's favorability is split 35 - 35 percent, compared to 41 - 22 percent last time.
Biden's favorability is 38 - 27 percent, compared to 36 - 22 percent last time.
For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, and post-debate voters trust Obama more than McCain 50 - 39 percent to handle this issue, compared to 49 - 39 percent pre-debate.
Voters trust McCain more, 53 - 38 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 51 - 39 percent pre-debate.
After the debate, voters say 50 - 23 percent that Obama's efforts on the economic crisis have been helpful more than harmful, compared to 43 - 33 percent for McCain.
By a 48 - 29 percent margin, Ohio voters oppose the $700 billion economic rescue plan.
"It's easy to see why Sen. McCain is doing so poorly. On September 11, his favorable/unfavorable ratio among Ohio voters was 53 - 34 percent. Now it's just 49 - 40 percent, dropping from a 19-point plus to nine points in just 20 days, while Sen. Obama's ratings have remained as positive as they were. And the economy is the reason. Obama's five-point edge as the best candidate to handle the economy - which is by far the most important issue to voters, especially in economically distressed Ohio - has doubled," Brown said.
Pennsylvania
Post-debate, Obama leads 58 - 34 percent with women and 49 - 45 percent among men. Independent voters shift from leaning 45 - 44 percent to McCain September 11 to 59 - 29 percent for Obama.
The 65 percent of voters who saw the debate say 51 - 30 percent that Obama won. Obama gets a 61 - 28 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 45 - 44 percent split. Palin's favorability is a negative 34 - 37 percent, down from 39 - 26 percent. Biden gets a 49 - 23 percent score, down from 53 - 22 percent.
The economy is the most important issue, 59 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, and voters trust Obama more than McCain 55 - 36 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 - 39 percent pre-debate. By a 48 - 45 percent margin, voters trust McCain more to handle foreign policy, compared to 53 - 39 percent pre-debate.
Obama's role in trying to solve the economic crisis has been helpful more than harmful, voters say 51 - 15 percent, compared to 39 - 35 percent for McCain. Pennsylvania voters oppose the $700 billion economic rescue plan 46 - 33 percent.
"Pennsylvania is back in its role as the most Democratic swing state in the 2008 election, mainly because voters believe that Sen. Obama will do a better job handling the economy. Three quarters of voters say economic issues, including energy and health care, are the most important in this campaign and Obama wins big on every economy-related question in the poll. Sen. McCain can't win Pennsylvania with just 36 percent of voters saying he is the candidate for the economy," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
From September 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent; 1,203 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,138 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
From September 27 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
836 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent; 825 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent; 832 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... PreDeb POST DEBATE ................................... IMPQ6 FLORIDA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Econ Obama 49% 51% 10% 86% 52% 45% 57% 56% McCain 43 43 87 10 40 50 37 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 3 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 3 4 6 4 6 7 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 45% 43% 49% 41% 48% 24% 44% McCain 50 50 47 55 45 71 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 4 4 6 3 5
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
FL Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 51 49 43 43 46 47 McCain 43 43 50 47 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 7 6 8 7 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.... POST DEBATE......... PreDeb CANDCHOICE Q1 FL Tot Tot Obama McCain Made up 89% 87% 89% 85% Might change 10 12 10 14 DK/NA 1 1 1 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... PreDeb POST DEBATE ................................... IMPQ6 OHIO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Econ Obama 49% 50% 12% 85% 46% 46% 53% 57% McCain 42 42 85 10 42 46 39 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 3 4 11 6 7 8 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 44% 42% 49% 43% 44% 30% 48% McCain 49 49 48 50 47 62 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 3 6 8 7 3
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
OH Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 50 49 49 44 46 48 McCain 42 42 44 43 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 5 11 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.... POST DEBATE......... OH Tot Tot Obama McCain Made up 83% 82% 82% 83% Might change 15 16 17 15 DK/NA 1 1 1 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... PreDeb POST DEBATE ................................... IMPQ6 PENNSYLVANIA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Econ Obama 49% 54% 10% 84% 59% 49% 58% 60% McCain 43 39 85 12 29 45 34 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 6 3 3 10 4 7 6 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 49% 48% 51% 43% 54% 35% 45% McCain 45 45 45 51 40 62 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 3 4 5 2 7
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
PA Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 54 49 48 49 49 52 McCain 39 43 45 42 42 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 6 9 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.... POST DEBATE......... PA Tot Tot Obama McCain Made up 82% 84% 84% 83% Might change 16 16 15 17 DK/NA 1 1 1 1
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE ......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 56% 58% 24% 88% 59% 51% 65% Unfavorable 31 33 67 6 28 38 27 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 7 5 12 9 6 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 53% 54% 19% 82% 53% 49% 58% Unfavorable 32 32 65 8 30 35 29 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 15 7 15 13 10 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 54% 61% 24% 86% 66% 58% 64% Unfavorable 31 28 62 6 23 32 24 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 12 6 9 8 9 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 1 1 3
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 52% 52% 88% 21% 53% 60% 45% Unfavorable 37 39 8 66 38 33 44 Hvn't hrd enough 8 7 3 10 6 6 8 REFUSED 3 2 1 3 3 1 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 49% 85% 19% 49% 52% 46% Unfavorable 39 40 8 71 35 39 40 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 6 5 12 7 9 REFUSED 3 3 1 5 3 2 5 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 45% 83% 20% 42% 49% 41% Unfavorable 37 44 10 68 45 43 45 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 7 8 12 6 11 REFUSED 3 3 - 4 1 2 3
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 44% 47% 22% 73% 44% 46% 48% Unfavorable 27 27 51 6 25 32 22 Hvn't hrd enough 29 24 24 20 28 19 29 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 38% 18% 67% 27% 35% 40% Unfavorable 26 27 50 6 29 34 21 Hvn't hrd enough 34 34 30 27 42 30 37 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 49% 20% 67% 55% 46% 51% Unfavorable 24 23 55 5 17 31 17 Hvn't hrd enough 29 26 24 27 28 21 30 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 2 1
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 42% 36% 67% 14% 30% 40% 32% Unfavorable 36 39 13 61 39 33 44 Hvn't hrd enough 21 23 17 22 31 25 21 REFUSED 1 2 3 2 - 1 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 35% 68% 10% 33% 34% 36% Unfavorable 33 35 7 63 30 35 35 Hvn't hrd enough 26 28 25 25 34 30 27 REFUSED 1 2 - 2 3 1 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 34% 74% 14% 21% 40% 30% Unfavorable 34 37 9 54 44 32 40 Hvn't hrd enough 28 28 17 32 35 28 28 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - - 2
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 10% 7% 15% 1% 6% 8% 6% The war in Iraq 9 8 7 13 5 8 8 The economy 61 60 57 67 54 58 62 Illegal immigration 3 4 4 2 5 5 3 Energy policy 6 7 6 5 12 9 5 Health care 6 7 5 8 9 5 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 4 4 1 6 5 2 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 4 2 4 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 8% 8% 19% 1% 9% 11% 7% The war in Iraq 8 9 8 8 11 9 9 The economy 59 59 50 70 54 54 64 Illegal immigration 3 1 4 1 - 1 1 Energy policy 7 8 8 5 9 11 4 Health care 11 8 4 11 8 6 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 3 4 2 4 3 3 DK/NA 3 3 5 2 3 5 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 8% 6% 12% 2% 6% 7% 5% The war in Iraq 7 9 6 12 7 11 7 The economy 57 59 55 60 61 57 61 Illegal immigration 3 2 5 1 1 3 2 Energy policy 8 8 10 5 11 10 6 Health care 10 10 6 16 6 7 13 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 1 6 3 4 DK/NA 5 3 3 2 3 3 2
7a. (Pre Debate only) As you may know, there will be a televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain this Friday night. Do you plan on watching this debate?
LIKELY VOTERS Pre Debate FL Tot Yes 83% No 12 DK/NA 5 OH Tot Yes 81% No 14 DK/NA 5 PA Tot Yes 78% No 18 DK/NA 4
8a. (Pre Debate only) How likely is it that this presidential debate could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS Pre Debate FL Tot Very likely 4% Smwht likely 14 Not too likely 20 Not likely 60 DK/NA 2 OH Tot Very likely 3% Smwht likely 15 Not too likely 23 Not likely 55 DK/NA 3 PA Tot Very likely 5% Smwht likely 16 Not too likely 24 Not likely 52 DK/NA 2
9a. (Pre Debate only) Who do you think will do a better job in the debate - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS Pre Debate FL Tot Obama 53% McCain 27 DK/NA 20 OH Tot Obama 53% McCain 27 DK/NA 20 PA Tot Obama 53% McCain 26 DK/NA 21
7b. (Post Debate only) Did you watch the televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain that was on Friday night?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 79% 80% 79% 78% 81% 77% No 21 20 21 22 19 22 DK/NA - - - - - - POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 64% 69% 64% 62% 61% 68% No 35 31 36 38 39 32 DK/NA - - - - - - POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 65% 60% 64% 70% 65% 65% No 35 40 35 30 34 35 DK/NA - - 1 - 1 -
8b. (Post Debate) Did this debate change how you will vote?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... POST DEBATE ............................................ FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Yes 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 1% 3% No 88 91 88 85 88 88 95 DK/NA 9 7 10 11 8 11 2 POST DEBATE ............................................ OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Yes 3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 4% 4% No 84 86 85 81 86 82 95 DK/NA 14 12 13 15 12 15 2 POST DEBATE ............................................ PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Yes 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% No 89 88 88 91 89 89 96 DK/NA 9 11 8 7 9 9 1
9b. (Post Debate) Who do you think did a better job in the debate - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... POST DEBATE ............................................ FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Obama 42% 15% 66% 40% 38% 46% 49% McCain 29 58 8 25 35 24 34 DK/NA 29 27 26 34 27 30 17 POST DEBATE ............................................ OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Obama 35% 12% 54% 34% 32% 37% 49% McCain 22 47 7 19 22 23 33 DK/NA 43 41 40 46 46 40 18 POST DEBATE ............................................ PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Obama 39% 10% 59% 43% 36% 42% 51% McCain 22 46 9 16 27 19 30 DK/NA 38 44 32 41 38 39 19
10. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle - the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 50% 53% 16% 85% 52% 48% 57% McCain 40 39 78 10 35 44 33 DK/NA 10 9 6 5 13 8 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 49% 50% 12% 85% 46% 47% 53% McCain 39 39 81 9 38 44 35 DK/NA 12 10 7 6 16 9 12 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 50% 55% 14% 83% 59% 50% 59% McCain 39 36 80 11 24 43 30 DK/NA 11 9 7 6 17 7 11
11. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle - foreign policy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 42% 41% 7% 74% 39% 35% 46% McCain 51 52 89 18 52 59 44 DK/NA 8 8 4 8 9 5 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 39% 38% 8% 66% 37% 34% 43% McCain 51 53 91 23 51 58 47 DK/NA 10 9 1 10 12 8 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 39% 45% 6% 72% 47% 41% 48% McCain 53 48 92 19 46 56 42 DK/NA 8 7 2 9 7 3 9
12. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - the war in Iraq - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 46% 45% 8% 80% 43% 42% 49% McCain 47 48 89 14 47 55 41 DK/NA 7 7 3 6 10 4 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 46% 43% 5% 75% 41% 38% 47% McCain 46 50 92 19 49 57 44 DK/NA 8 7 3 6 10 5 9 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 44% 49% 11% 77% 49% 43% 54% McCain 48 45 88 16 42 54 37 DK/NA 8 6 2 7 8 3 9
13. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - a terrorist incident in the United States - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 41% 41% 8% 76% 35% 35% 48% McCain 49 51 89 15 56 58 44 DK/NA 9 8 3 9 9 7 8 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 37% 37% 4% 65% 35% 32% 41% McCain 53 53 92 21 53 60 46 DK/NA 10 11 4 13 12 8 13 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 38% 42% 8% 67% 43% 36% 48% McCain 53 47 88 23 40 55 40 DK/NA 8 10 4 10 16 9 11
14. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - relations with Russia - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 45% 45% 9% 78% 44% 41% 49% McCain 45 47 87 15 45 53 41 DK/NA 10 8 4 7 11 6 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 43% 39% 8% 68% 37% 38% 41% McCain 46 48 89 17 47 52 45 DK/NA 11 12 3 15 16 10 14 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 41% 45% 7% 73% 46% 42% 48% McCain 46 44 87 16 37 51 38 DK/NA 14 11 6 10 17 7 14
15. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 54% 54% 16% 85% 56% 48% 59% McCain 37 38 77 11 32 44 32 DK/NA 9 9 7 4 13 8 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 53% 53% 17% 87% 51% 48% 58% McCain 37 36 73 8 35 42 31 DK/NA 11 10 10 5 14 10 11 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 56% 59% 19% 84% 68% 55% 63% McCain 34 33 74 11 21 39 28 DK/NA 10 8 7 5 11 6 9
16. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - a potential conflict between Israel and Iran - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 43% 42% 8% 75% 39% 37% 46% McCain 49 49 89 16 48 56 42 DK/NA 8 9 3 9 13 7 12 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 43% 40% 7% 72% 36% 40% 41% McCain 46 49 87 20 50 53 46 DK/NA 11 10 6 8 14 7 13 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 41% 45% 12% 72% 42% 40% 49% McCain 47 46 84 20 44 52 40 DK/NA 13 9 4 8 14 8 10
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 24% 22% 53% 5% 11% 21% 23% Disapprove 70 73 42 93 83 74 72 DK/NA 6 5 5 2 6 5 5 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 25% 24% 54% 3% 20% 25% 23% Disapprove 69 71 40 94 73 69 72 DK/NA 6 6 6 3 6 6 5 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 23% 20% 48% 5% 11% 19% 20% Disapprove 72 75 44 93 84 76 74 DK/NA 4 5 8 2 5 5 6
18. (Post Debate) Do you think John McCain's role in trying to solve the nation's economic crisis has been helpful or harmful?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Helpful 45% 73% 23% 39% 47% 43% Harmful 31 7 56 30 28 34 DK/NA 24 20 21 31 24 23 OH POST DEBATE .......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Helpful 43% 70% 21% 44% 44% 42% Harmful 33 11 52 32 32 34 DK/NA 24 19 26 24 23 24 POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Helpful 39% 67% 23% 33% 45% 34% Harmful 35 9 55 33 32 37 DK/NA 26 23 21 35 23 28
19. (Post Debate) Do you think Barack Obama's role in trying to solve the nation's economic crisis has been helpful or harmful?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Helpful 53% 33% 73% 49% 48% 57% Harmful 20 38 6 20 25 16 DK/NA 27 29 21 31 27 26 OH POST DEBATE .......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Helpful 50% 32% 65% 52% 48% 53% Harmful 23 41 7 24 26 20 DK/NA 27 27 29 24 26 28 POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Helpful 51% 32% 67% 48% 51% 50% Harmful 15 28 9 9 18 13 DK/NA 34 40 24 42 31 36
20. (Post Debate) Do you think the presidential candidates should have been involved in the White House negotiations on the nation's economic crisis or should they have stayed on the campaign trail?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht House negotiations 60% 79% 43% 62% 64% 57% Campaign trail 34 15 50 32 32 36 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 4 8 POST DEBATE .......................... OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht House negotiations 66% 79% 57% 66% 68% 65% Campaign trail 27 18 37 24 28 26 DK/NA 7 4 7 10 4 9 POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht House negotiations 61% 78% 50% 62% 59% 62% Campaign trail 32 19 42 33 34 31 DK/NA 7 4 9 5 6 8
21. (Post Debate) Do you support or oppose the 700 billion dollar plan to solve the nation's economic crisis?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... POST DEBATE .......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 36% 42% 33% 34% 36% 35% Oppose 42 34 44 48 47 38 DK/NA 22 24 23 19 17 27 OH POST DEBATE .......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 29% 29% 30% 29% 31% 27% Oppose 48 49 49 43 47 48 DK/NA 24 23 21 27 22 25 POST DEBATE .......................... PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 33% 31% 37% 33% 35% 32% Oppose 46 47 42 50 46 45 DK/NA 21 21 21 18 19 23