Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * October 23, 2008 * Economy Buoys Obama In Florida - Quinnipiac University

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October 23, 2008 - Economy Buoys Obama In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; McCain Gains Some Ground In Florida, But Fades In Ohio --- FLORIDA: Obama 49 - McCain 44; OHIO: Obama 52 - McCain 38; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 - McCain 40

Word format It's still the economy as Sen. Barack Obama rolls up support among groups who have not supported a Democrat for decades to lead Republican Sen. John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
With 12 days to go, Sen. McCain is narrowing the gap in Florida, but fading in Ohio and barely denting Sen. Obama's double-digit lead in Pennsylvania.
No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls show:
Florida: Obama up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 51 - 43 percent October 1; Ohio: Obama up 52 - 38 percent, widening an October 1 lead of 50 - 42 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 40 percent, compared to 54 - 39 percent last time.
By margins of eight to 19 points, voters in each state say they trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy.
By smaller margins of two to six points, voters say they trust McCain more than Obama to handle foreign policy.
"As we enter the home stretch, Sen. Obama is winning voter groups that no Democrat has carried in more than four decades, and he holds very solid leads in the big swing states. If these numbers hold up, he could win the biggest Democratic landslide since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Voters are scared about their economic futures and have decided that Sen. Obama is Mr. Fix-it," Brown added.
"Sen. Obama is no longer the candidate of the young, the well-educated and minorities. He is now virtually the candidate of the 'all.' He is winning among all age groups in all three states. He wins women by more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania and is competitive among men in all three states. Whether voters went to college or not, they are voting for him.
"Perhaps the most remarkable development is that Obama is doing significantly better among white, born again evangelicals in Ohio and Pennsylvania than did Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. He also is winning Roman Catholics in those states, historically the key swing voter group in the electorate and synonymous here with the blue-collar vote.
"In Florida, Obama's margin over McCain is due mostly from stronger support from Hispanics than Kerry received."
President George W. Bush's approval ratings are:
27 - 66 percent in Florida; 22 - 72 percent in Ohio; 21 - 73 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida
Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama gets 48 percent to McCain's 44 percent, a statistical tie in this smaller subgroup. .
Looking at all Florida likely voters, men split with 46 percent for Obama and 45 percent for McCain. Women back Obama 51 - 42 percent. The Republican leads 52 - 41 percent among white voters, 71 - 23 percent among evangelical Christians and 51 - 40 percent among Catholics. Obama leads 49 - 39 percent among Hispanics and 77 - 20 percent among Jews.
Independent voters back Obama 51 - 39 percent, similar to October 1.
By a 56 - 35 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 52 - 40 percent for McCain.
Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a slightly negative 41 - 43 percent favorability.
Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 51 - 28 percent favorability.
The economy is the most important election issue, 61 percent of Florida voters say, and voters trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy, 51 - 43 percent, compared to 53 - 39 percent October 1.
Voters trust McCain more than Obama 50 - 44 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 52 - 41 percent last time.
"One reason that Sen. Obama has pulled ahead in Florida is that the number of Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters who said they will defect to back Sen. McCain has dropped significantly," Brown said.
Ohio
Obama leads 71 - 20 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio. Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 58 - 33 percent among women and gets 46 percent of men to McCain's 44 percent. White voters back Obama 47 - 43 percent, as do black voters, 94 - 3 percent. Independent voters go 50 - 37 percent for the Democrat.
Obama gets a 58 - 33 percent favorability in Ohio, with 48 - 42 percent for McCain.
Palin's favorability is a negative 37 - 41 percent, while Biden gets a 49 - 22 percent favorability.
For 61 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, and voters trust Obama more than McCain 55 - 36 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 - 39 percent last time.
Voters trust McCain more, 48 - 46 percent, to handle foreign policy, compared to 53 - 38 percent.
"To overcome Sen. Obama's lead in Ohio, Sen. McCain would have to get virtually every voter who remains undecided plus almost all of the Obama supporters who said they still might change their minds - a very small percentage possibility," Brown said. Pennsylvania
Obama leads 59 - 35 percent with women, while men split with 47 percent for Obama and 45 percent for McCain. White voters back Obama 49 - 44 percent, while black voters back him 92 - 3 percent. Independent voters back the Democrat 55 - 35 percent. Obama gets a 60 - 30 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 51 - 41 percent. Palin's favorability is a negative 38 - 43 percent, with Biden at 54 - 22 percent.
The economy is the most important issue, 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, and voters trust Obama more than McCain 54 - 36 percent to handle this issue, compared to 55 - 36 percent October 1.
By a 47 - 45 percent margin, voters trust McCain more to handle foreign policy, compared to 48 - 45 percent.
"Sen. Obama leads comfortably in Pennsylvania, mostly because he has pulled ahead in the four key suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia where Keystone State races are decided," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Obama is leading among whites and blue collar workers, but white men and 15 percent of Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary supporters are clinging to Sen. McCain, probably not enough to change the tide in the closing days of the campaign," Richards added.
From October 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,433 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,360 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,425 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... FLORIDA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 49% 11% 85% 51% 46% 51% 52% 49% 47% McCain 44 84 10 39 45 42 39 44 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 - 3 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 4 8 7 6 6 7 7 Alrdy IMPQ6 North/ Voted Econ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 48% 57% 36% 45% 44% 52% 64% McCain 44 35 54 48 48 43 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 7 7 7 4 7 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath His Jew Obama 41% 37% 49% 38% 43% 23% 40% 49% 77% McCain 52 54 47 53 51 71 51 39 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 3 - 2 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 3 7 6 5 8 11 4 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 14% 88% 76% 98% 8% 69% McCain 79 8 18 2 86 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 4 5 - 6 7 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 49 51 49 43 43 46 47 McCain 44 43 43 50 47 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 7 6 8 7 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 FL Tot Obama McCain Made up 93% 94% 92% Might change 7 5 8 DK/NA - - -
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... OHIO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 52% 9% 85% 50% 46% 58% 55% 50% 53% McCain 38 85 8 37 44 33 33 40 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 5 5 11 8 8 10 8 7 Alrdy IMPQ6 Voted Econ Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Obama 71% 58% 51% 56% 54% 56% 46% 48% McCain 20 32 41 33 36 37 46 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 - - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 8 9 10 7 8 6 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Blk Obama 47% 46% 49% 42% 51% 32% 46% 94% McCain 43 43 45 48 39 59 46 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 10 5 8 9 8 8 3 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 15% 87% 73% 89% 8% 70% McCain 76 7 19 6 82 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 8 5 7 5 8 7 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 52 50 49 49 44 46 48 McCain 38 42 42 44 43 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 8 5 11 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 OH Tot Obama McCain Made up 91% 92% 91% Might change 8 7 8 DK/NA 1 1 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... PENNSYLVANIA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 53% 13% 87% 55% 47% 59% 58% 55% 51% McCain 40 81 9 35 45 35 36 41 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 3 7 5 6 3 3 7 IMPQ6 Econ Algny Phily NEast SEast NWest SWest Cntrl Obama 61% 54% 82% 48% 57% 55% 41% 44% McCain 35 39 17 45 31 42 51 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 4 2 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 5 1 3 9 3 6 6 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Blk Obama 49% 49% 50% 43% 55% 32% 55% 92% McCain 44 44 45 50 39 63 38 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 2 1 - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 3 4 6 5 5 5 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 18% 89% 81% 97% 7% 70% McCain 75 7 15 3 90 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 4 - 3 5 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 Jun 18 TREND: 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 53 54 49 48 49 49 52 McCain 40 39 43 45 42 42 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 7 6 9 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 PA Tot Obama McCain Made up 89% 90% 87% Might change 10 9 12 DK/NA 1 - 1
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 56% 23% 86% 60% 53% 59% Unfavorable 35 69 8 30 38 33 Hvn't hrd enough 5 6 3 5 5 4 REFUSED 4 3 2 5 4 3 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 58% 19% 87% 57% 52% 63% Unfavorable 33 72 8 28 38 28 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 3 12 7 7 REFUSED 3 4 2 3 3 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 60% 28% 85% 65% 54% 65% Unfavorable 30 61 9 23 36 25 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 5 9 8 6 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 1 3
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 52% 85% 21% 50% 54% 49% Unfavorable 40 8 70 41 38 41 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 5 4 4 5 REFUSED 4 1 3 5 4 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 48% 88% 19% 51% 57% 41% Unfavorable 42 6 72 35 36 47 Hvn't hrd enough 6 3 5 9 5 7 REFUSED 4 3 4 4 3 5 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 87% 25% 47% 58% 44% Unfavorable 41 9 68 40 35 47 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 4 8 5 5 REFUSED 3 1 3 4 2 3
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 23% 80% 51% 52% 50% Unfavorable 28 55 6 24 32 24 Hvn't hrd enough 19 21 15 22 14 24 REFUSED 2 2 - 2 2 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 22% 69% 47% 45% 52% Unfavorable 22 50 5 19 27 18 Hvn't hrd enough 27 24 24 31 25 28 REFUSED 3 4 1 3 3 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 54% 26% 76% 56% 51% 56% Unfavorable 22 46 6 17 28 17 Hvn't hrd enough 22 27 18 26 19 25 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 77% 11% 36% 43% 39% Unfavorable 43 11 71 47 41 44 Hvn't hrd enough 14 10 18 14 13 14 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 78% 11% 33% 43% 32% Unfavorable 41 7 68 37 34 47 Hvn't hrd enough 20 13 19 28 23 18 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 75% 13% 32% 43% 34% Unfavorable 43 11 67 47 39 47 Hvn't hrd enough 17 14 18 19 16 17 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 8% 15% 2% 7% 9% 8% The war in Iraq 8 5 10 8 8 7 The economy 61 54 67 63 60 61 Illegal immigration 3 3 2 3 3 3 Energy policy 5 7 1 6 7 3 Health care 9 5 13 7 6 10 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 4 5 3 3 4 3 DK/NA 3 4 1 2 2 3 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 6% 15% 2% 4% 9% 4% The war in Iraq 8 8 7 10 8 8 The economy 61 53 66 63 62 60 Illegal immigration 2 3 2 3 2 3 Energy policy 3 6 2 4 5 2 Health care 12 5 17 10 7 15 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 4 5 2 5 4 4 DK/NA 3 5 2 1 3 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 7% 14% 3% 4% 8% 7% The war in Iraq 10 10 11 9 11 10 The economy 55 50 60 58 54 56 Illegal immigration 3 3 2 4 3 2 Energy policy 6 9 4 5 8 4 Health care 11 7 15 9 9 13 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 4 5 3 5 3 5 DK/NA 4 3 2 5 4 3
7. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 51% 13% 88% 54% 49% 53% McCain 43 80 9 39 44 41 DK/NA 6 7 3 7 6 6 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 55% 11% 86% 56% 50% 59% McCain 36 80 8 33 42 31 DK/NA 9 9 6 11 8 9 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 54% 15% 85% 56% 48% 58% McCain 36 74 8 30 41 31 DK/NA 11 10 7 14 11 10
8. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - foreign policy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 44% 8% 83% 43% 42% 46% McCain 50 89 14 49 53 48 DK/NA 5 3 4 8 4 6 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 46% 4% 77% 45% 41% 50% McCain 48 91 17 49 54 43 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 5 7 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 45% 8% 77% 42% 40% 49% McCain 47 88 17 45 52 43 DK/NA 8 4 7 13 8 8
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 27% 54% 8% 20% 28% 26% Disapprove 66 35 90 72 66 66 DK/NA 7 12 1 8 7 8 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 22% 50% 6% 17% 24% 21% Disapprove 72 37 93 77 71 73 DK/NA 6 13 2 6 5 7 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 21% 47% 4% 15% 24% 19% Disapprove 73 45 93 78 71 75 DK/NA 6 8 3 7 6 6