Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * October 29, 2008 * Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Ti - Quinnipiac University

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October 29, 2008 - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Tighten Up In Final Week, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Obama Out Front, But Florida Is Too Close To Call --- FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 45; OHIO: Obama 51 - McCain 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 - McCain 41

Word format With six days to go Sen. Barack Obama is holding off what appears to be a too-little, too-late move by Republican Sen. John McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but the Democrat's two-point lead among likely voters in Florida leaves that state too close to call, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
Florida: Obama 47 to McCain's 45 percent, compared to 49 - 44 percent October 23; Ohio: Obama up 51 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 38 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 41 percent, compared to 53 - 40 percent last time.
Obama would be a "great" or "good" President, according to 51 percent of Florida voters, 52 percent of Ohio voters and 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters.
McCain would be a "great" or "good" President, say 47 percent of Florida voters, 43 percent of Ohio voters and 42 percent of Pennsylvania voters.
"If - IF - Sen. Barack Obama can take Florida, he could match or come close to President Bill Clinton's re-election margin in 1996, carrying all three of the big swing states en route to rolling up 379 Electoral College votes. The last challenger to win the Big Three was Ronald Reagan, who tallied 489 Electoral College votes in his 1980 landslide," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Time is running out for Sen. John McCain, and this poll shows the number of voters who say they might change their mind to support him gets smaller and smaller," Brown added.
"Sen. McCain has made up some ground in the last week among white voters, especially in Florida where the race remains close. To win the election, he has to dominate the white vote and Sen. Obama is keeping it close enough there to maintain his slightly smaller lead.
"The Democratic edge in enthusiasm is obvious and best evidenced by the early voting figures in Ohio and Florida. In Ohio the number of Democrats voting early is twice the Republican number, while in Florida the Democratic early turnout is almost 10 points better."
President George W. Bush's approval ratings are:
27 - 68 percent in Florida; 23 - 72 percent in Ohio; 23 - 72 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida
Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama leads 58 - 34 percent.
Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 44 percent. Women back Obama 50 - 42 percent. The Republican leads 53 - 40 percent among white voters, 72 - 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 - 42 percent among Catholics. The Democrat leads 75 - 20 percent among Jews and 56 - 39 percent among voters 18 - 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split 46 - 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama.
Independent voters back Obama 47 - 39 percent.
By a 53 - 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 55 - 38 percent for McCain.
Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a 44 - 41 percent favorability.
Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 - 29 percent favorability.
The economy is the most important election issue, 59 percent of Florida voters say.
"The reason Sen. McCain is doing better in Florida than some other key states is his strength among white voters without college degrees. He leads Sen. Obama by 18 points among that group in Florida, but is neck and neck with him among such voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania," Brown said.
Ohio
Obama leads 57 - 31 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio.
Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among women. McCain gets 48 percent of men to Obama's 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Black voters back Obama 89 - 1 percent. The Democrat leads 59 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go Democratic 50 - 40 percent.
Independent voters go 50 - 38 percent for the Democrat.
Obama gets a 55 - 34 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 - 42 percent for McCain.
Palin's favorability is 41 - 40 percent, while Biden gets a 47 - 28 percent favorability.
For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue.
"The Obama campaign has worried for months about winning Ohio's white working-class voters, including those who had been with Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primary. Obama's ability to be competitive with that group is why he is ahead. He's only losing one in five Clinton voters and is within two points of Sen. McCain among whites without college degrees. That's a recipe for Obama success," Brown said.
Pennsylvania
Obama leads 59 - 35 percent with women, while men back McCain by a narrow 49 - 46 percent. White voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Black voters back Obama 95 - 2 percent. He also leads 61 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters over 55.
Independent voters back the Democrat 54 - 35 percent. Obama gets a 59 - 33 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 50 - 43 percent. Palin's favorability is a negative 38 - 43 percent, while Biden gets 49 - 29 percent.
The economy is the most important issue, 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters say.
"Pennsylvania is consistently Obama blue down the home stretch, even with white voters only narrowly in his corner. Sen. Barack Obama's big lead over Sen. John McCain in the critical southeast Philadelphia suburbs - the key to the Keystone State in recent elections - should seal up Pennsylvania for Obama," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
From October 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,435 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,425 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,364 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... FLORIDA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 47% 11% 86% 47% 44% 50% 56% 46% 45% McCain 45 86 9 39 49 42 39 46 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 2 4 11 5 6 2 6 7 Alrdy IMPQ6 North/ Voted Econ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 58% 57% 39% 50% 46% 29% 59% McCain 34 37 53 38 48 62 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 1 4 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 7 7 5 5 5 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath His Jew Obama 40% 37% 47% 39% 41% 21% 42% 42% 75% McCain 53 55 48 54 52 72 53 47 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 4 5 6 5 4 11 5 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 13% 90% 81% 95% 5% 67% McCain 82 6 13 3 89 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 4 5 2 5 6 Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 TREND: 2008 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 Obama 47 49 51 49 43 43 46 McCain 45 44 43 43 50 47 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 5 7 6 8 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 FL Tot Obama McCain Made up 93% 94% 93% Might change 6 6 7 DK/NA 1 1 -
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... OHIO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 51% 12% 86% 50% 45% 55% 59% 46% 50% McCain 42 85 9 38 48 36 36 47 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 3 11 6 7 4 5 8 Alrdy IMPQ6 Voted Econ Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Obama 57% 58% 54% 53% 45% 45% 47% 47% McCain 31 34 41 39 43 45 45 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 5 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 10 6 4 7 11 5 8 5 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Blk Obama 46% 45% 47% 41% 50% 33% 45% 89% McCain 47 47 48 52 42 61 49 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 4 5 6 5 6 10 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 15% 86% 73% 92% 5% 68% McCain 79 10 20 7 89 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 4 6 1 5 6 Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 TREND: 2008 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 Obama 51 52 50 49 49 44 46 McCain 42 38 42 42 44 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 7 8 5 11 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 OH Tot Obama McCain Made up 91% 91% 91% Might change 8 8 8 DK/NA 1 1 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... PENNSYLVANIA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 53% 15% 87% 54% 46% 59% 61% 51% 51% McCain 41 82 9 35 49 35 36 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 2 3 10 5 5 2 6 6 IMPQ6 Econ Algny Phily NEast SEast NWest SWest Cntrl Obama 59% 55% 81% 57% 57% 46% 47% 40% McCain 35 37 14 39 39 44 51 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 8 5 3 4 9 1 6 WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Blk Obama 48% 45% 55% 41% 53% 31% 49% 95% McCain 47 48 43 55 40 62 47 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 2 4 5 7 3 3 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 17% 86% 75% 96% 9% 70% McCain 78 11 20 4 88 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 4 - 3 5 Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 TREND: 2008 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 Obama 53 53 54 49 48 49 49 McCain 41 40 39 43 45 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 6 7 6 9 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 PA Tot Obama McCain Made up 91% 91% 92% Might change 8 9 8 DK/NA 1 1 -
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 53% 20% 86% 55% 50% 55% Unfavorable 37 69 9 30 39 34 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 3 9 7 6 REFUSED 4 3 2 6 3 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 55% 20% 87% 56% 51% 58% Unfavorable 34 71 8 28 37 31 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 3 9 7 8 REFUSED 4 2 2 6 5 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 59% 23% 89% 61% 53% 63% Unfavorable 33 65 6 30 37 29 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 4 7 7 6 REFUSED 2 4 1 1 3 2
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 55% 89% 21% 53% 60% 50% Unfavorable 38 8 69 37 34 41 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 5 4 4 3 REFUSED 4 2 4 5 3 5 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 86% 25% 46% 57% 45% Unfavorable 42 11 68 42 36 46 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 4 6 3 5 REFUSED 3 3 2 5 4 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 83% 22% 48% 57% 44% Unfavorable 43 12 70 44 38 47 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 4 6 3 5 REFUSED 3 3 4 3 2 4
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 26% 77% 48% 48% 51% Unfavorable 29 53 6 27 34 24 Hvn't hrd enough 18 19 15 19 15 21 REFUSED 3 2 2 6 3 4 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 47% 22% 72% 44% 47% 47% Unfavorable 28 55 6 25 32 23 Hvn't hrd enough 23 21 20 29 20 27 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 21% 72% 54% 44% 53% Unfavorable 29 56 7 25 36 23 Hvn't hrd enough 20 21 20 18 18 22 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 44% 80% 14% 34% 44% 43% Unfavorable 41 11 69 46 39 43 Hvn't hrd enough 14 8 16 17 15 12 REFUSED 2 1 1 4 2 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 78% 15% 36% 43% 40% Unfavorable 40 8 68 40 38 42 Hvn't hrd enough 17 12 15 22 17 16 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 70% 11% 36% 44% 33% Unfavorable 43 15 67 44 38 47 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 20 19 16 19 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 1
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 11% 19% 4% 12% 12% 10% The war in Iraq 8 9 7 8 9 7 The economy 59 50 68 59 57 60 Illegal immigration 2 3 1 2 2 1 Energy policy 4 5 2 5 5 4 Health care 9 5 16 5 7 12 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 5 7 1 5 5 4 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 3 2 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 8% 17% 1% 7% 9% 7% The war in Iraq 8 7 7 9 7 8 The economy 59 49 69 59 58 60 Illegal immigration 3 2 3 4 5 1 Energy policy 5 9 1 4 7 3 Health care 10 7 15 9 7 13 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 4 6 2 4 3 5 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 2 3 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 8% 18% 1% 6% 8% 7% The war in Iraq 11 9 12 11 12 10 The economy 54 49 60 50 52 55 Illegal immigration 3 4 2 2 3 3 Energy policy 7 6 4 12 10 4 Health care 12 7 15 12 8 15 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 5 2 3 3 4 DK/NA 3 3 3 4 3 3
7. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think he would be a great President, a good President, a so so President, or a bad President?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Great 22% 4% 43% 23% 21% 24% Good 29 14 44 29 28 30 So so 22 37 7 23 24 21 Bad 21 39 3 17 24 18 DK/NA 6 6 4 8 4 8 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Great 18% 4% 33% 15% 15% 20% Good 34 15 51 35 31 37 So so 21 32 8 25 23 20 Bad 20 44 5 16 24 17 DK/NA 6 4 3 10 6 6 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Great 19% 5% 34% 16% 17% 20% Good 36 16 52 38 31 40 So so 19 30 8 24 20 18 Bad 19 41 3 13 25 14 DK/NA 7 8 4 8 7 6
8. If John McCain is elected President, do you think he would be a great President, a good President, a so so President, or a bad President?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Great 11% 23% 2% 8% 11% 11% Good 36 57 17 35 38 35 So so 30 14 44 34 33 28 Bad 17 4 31 15 15 18 DK/NA 5 3 6 8 4 7 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Great 7% 15% 2% 4% 5% 8% Good 36 64 14 34 38 34 So so 33 15 45 38 35 32 Bad 19 4 35 16 17 21 DK/NA 5 2 4 8 5 5 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Great 7% 15% 1% 6% 6% 7% Good 35 58 17 31 40 31 So so 33 19 43 37 31 34 Bad 20 3 35 20 17 22 DK/NA 6 5 5 7 5 6
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 27% 54% 4% 20% 29% 25% Disapprove 68 38 93 75 68 68 DK/NA 5 8 3 5 3 8 OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 23% 52% 3% 18% 24% 22% Disapprove 72 43 95 74 71 73 DK/NA 5 5 2 8 5 5 PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 23% 48% 5% 18% 27% 20% Disapprove 72 44 93 78 67 76 DK/NA 5 8 2 5 6 4