Presidential Swing States (CO, MI, MN & WI) Poll * June 26, 2008 * Obama Leads McCain In Four Bat - Quinnipiac University

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June 26, 2008 - Obama Leads McCain In Four Battleground States, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds --- COLORADO: Obama 49 - McCain 44 MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 42 MINNESOTA: Obama 54 - McCain 37 WISCONSIN: Obama 52 - McCain 39

Word format An emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads of five to 17 percentage points over Arizona Sen. John McCain among likely voters in the battleground states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.
Sen. McCain's lead among white voters in Colorado and Michigan cuts the gap to single digits, but doesn't offset Sen. Obama's strength among other groups. The Democrat also leads by eight to 21 percentage points among independent voters in each state. Overall results show:
Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters; Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent, with 46 - 38 percent among independents; Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents; Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 52 - 39 percent, and 50 - 37 percent with independents.
Democrats would like Obama to pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate, but voters overall reject the idea. Independent voters oppose Sen. Clinton by 16 to 29 percentage points.
"November can't get here soon enough for Sen. Barack Obama. He has a lead everywhere, and if nothing changes between now and November he will make history," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"But Sen. Obama should not be picking out the drapes for the Oval Office just yet. His lead nationally, and double digits in some key states, is not hugely different from where Sen. John Kerry stood four years ago at this point in the campaign," Brown added.
"At this point, Sen. Obama has assembled what Democrats see as their victory coalition for the future: young people, racial minorities and women, while remaining competitive - and in some places ahead - among men and whites.
"There is a clear consensus among voters in all of these states that they don't want Sen. Hillary Clinton as vice president and that they see her as a liability for Obama, not an asset."
President Bush's approval ratings are:
31 - 63 percent in Colorado; 26 - 67 percent in Michigan; 24 - 70 percent in Minnesota; 27 - 67 percent in Wisconsin.
Colorado
Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 50 - 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama as Hispanic voters go Democratic 62 - 36 percent. Obama leads 53 - 45 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54. He gets 47 percent of voters over 55 to McCain's 45 percent.
Obama gets a 53 - 33 percent favorability rating, with 53 - 32 percent for McCain.
While 19 percent of Colorado voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age, 78 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 91 percent say.
The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 47 percent say, while 19 percent list the war in Iraq, 10 percent cite health care and 9 percent cite illegal immigration.
"Democrats say Colorado is one of the states most likely to turn from red to blue in 2008, and these numbers certainly support that view," said Brown.
In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 - 38 percent, including 54 - 27 percent among independent voters.
Colorado voters support 66 - 15 percent a constitutional amendment outlawing discrimination or preferential treatment in public employment, contracting or education.
"Similar ballot proposals passed easily in Washington, California and Michigan. Colorado looks like it will join that list unless there is a dramatic shift in voter sentiment," Brown said.
Michigan
Michigan women voters back Obama 52 - 38 percent, while men split with 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 48 - 42 percent, as black voters support Obama 89 - 6 percent. The Democrat leads 57 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and gets 48 percent of voters 35 to 54, to McCain's 45 percent. Obama has a 45 - 42 percent edge among voters over 55.
Voters give Obama a 54 - 27 percent favorability, with 49 - 29 percent for McCain.
Because of his age, 18 percent of Michigan voters are less likely to vote for McCain, and 79 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 90 percent say.
For 56 percent of Michigan voters, the economy is the most important issue in November, while 16 percent list the war in Iraq and 10 percent cite health care.
"Michigan is a blue-collar state with a large white, working-class vote, the kind of voters with whom Sen. Obama had problems during the primaries. But at this point Sen. McCain isn't doing nearly as well among that group as he needs to in order to carry Michigan," Brown said. Minnesota
Obama tops McCain 58 - 32 percent with women and 49 - 42 percent among men. White voters support Obama 51 - 39 percent. The Democrat leads 63 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 49 - 38 percent with voters over 55.
Obama gets a 59 - 22 percent favorability, to 46 - 32 percent for McCain.
McCain's age will not affect their vote, 75 percent say, while 22 percent say they are less likely to vote for him because of his age. Obama's race will not affect their vote, 90 percent say.
By a 23 - 18 percent margin, Minnesota voters are less likely to vote Republican if Gov. Tim Pawlenty is the vice presidential candidate, while 56 percent say it won't affect their vote.
The economy is the most important issue for 51 percent of Minnesota voters, while 21 percent list the war in Iraq and 11 percent list health care.
In the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman tops Democrat Al Franken 51 - 41 percent, including 55 - 35 percent among independent voters.
"Sen. Obama sweeps nearly every demographic group in Minnesota, including whites and blue collar workers, to lead by 17 points, the biggest lead in the four states surveyed. At the same time, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, with overwhelming support among men and a tie among women, has a 10-point overall lead over comedian Al Franken, the Democratic challenger," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Most voters say it would not make any difference in their vote if Gov. Tim Pawlenty is McCain's running mate," Richards added. Wisconsin
Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama 53 - 37 percent while men back the Democrat 51 - 40 percent. White voters back Obama 49 - 42 percent. He leads 61 - 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 47 - 41 percent among voters over 55.
Obama's favorability is 54 - 27 percent, with 48 - 30 percent for McCain.
McCain's age won't affect their vote, 77 percent say, while 20 percent are less likely to vote for him because of his age. Obama's race doesn't matter, 91 percent say.
The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 47 percent of Wisconsin voters say, while 20 percent cite the war in Iraq and 14 percent list health care.
By a 7 - 4 percent margin, Wisconsin voters are less likely to vote Republican if Gov. Pawlenty is the vice presidential candidate, while 81 percent say it won't affect their vote.
"Winning a majority of the white vote and leading among blue collar workers, Obama leads by 13 points with eight in 10 voters saying their mind is made up in this campaign," Richards said.
"While reports suggest having Gov. Pawlenty from neighboring Minnesota as a running mate would give Sen. McCain an edge in Wisconsin, Badger State voters say having him on the ticket would make little difference in how they vote."
From June 17 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,351 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,411 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,572 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent; 1,537 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.
These surveys of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union COLORADO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Obama 49% 9% 93% 51% 45% 53% 46% 62% 54% McCain 44 88 5 39 50 39 47 36 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 3 3 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 2 8 3 7 5 2 4 IMP ISSUE Q5...... Denvr/ Arap/ RestOf War Econ Terr Bouldr Jeff West State Obama 68% 53% 8% 59% 48% 46% 42% McCain 27 39 91 35 43 47 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 6 1 4 7 5 4 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 53% 49% 47% 42% 52% 41% 50% 29% 38% McCain 45 42 45 50 42 52 42 65 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 5 7 6 5 4 7 4 8 PresVt2004.. CongVt2006.. BushJobAppQ12 Bush Kerry Rep Dem App Dis Obama 13% 90% 10% 84% 9% 72% McCain 81 5 86 12 86 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 3 3 3 5
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union MICHIGAN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Obama 48% 7% 86% 46% 45% 52% 42% 89% 57% McCain 42 89 9 38 46 38 48 6 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 3 5 14 7 9 9 5 9 IMP ISSUE Q4...... Wayne Oak/ RestOf War Econ Terr County Macomb SthW State Obama 70% 50% 9% 59% 43% 39% 51% McCain 21 41 84 33 44 49 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 - 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 6 7 12 11 6 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 57% 48% 45% 42% 43% 40% 44% 31% 38% McCain 36 45 42 47 50 51 45 60 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 12 10 6 7 10 8 8 PresVt2004.. CongVt2006.. BushJobAppQ12 Bush Kerry Rep Dem App Dis Obama 13% 83% 12% 77% 9% 67% McCain 79 12 83 18 85 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 5 4 6 8
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union MINNESOTA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Obama 54% 12% 88% 54% 49% 58% 51% 53% McCain 37 84 7 33 42 32 39 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 4 4 10 9 8 9 9 IMP ISSUE Q5...... Twin Twin War Econ Terr Cities Suburb West East Obama 65% 56% 12% 62% 49% 46% 54% McCain 25 35 84 31 42 42 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 8 4 6 8 12 9 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 63% 52% 49% 47% 62% 45% 57% 38% 50% McCain 33 39 38 42 31 45 34 55 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 8 11 10 5 9 9 6 9 PresVt2004.. CongVt2006.. BushJobAppQ12 Bush Kerry Rep Dem App Dis Obama 19% 86% 16% 83% 10% 71% McCain 73 8 80 11 84 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 4 6 6 8
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union WISCONSIN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Obama 52% 8% 88% 50% 51% 53% 49% 59% McCain 39 88 7 37 40 37 42 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 3 5 11 7 9 8 6 IMP ISSUE Q4...... Milwak RestOf War Econ Terr Milwak Vicnty South State Obama 70% 55% 7% 60% 42% 56% 51% McCain 23 37 86 28 51 35 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 7 7 12 5 9 8 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 61% 52% 47% 47% 56% 50% 49% 32% 49% McCain 35 39 41 43 38 42 41 59 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 8 11 9 5 7 9 8 7 PresVt2004.. CongVt2006.. BushJobAppQ12 Bush Kerry Rep Dem App Dis Obama 16% 86% 10% 80% 9% 73% McCain 77 7 85 13 83 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 4 7 8 8
1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 CO Tot Obama McCain Made up 77% 77% 78% Might change 21 21 21 DK/NA 2 2 2 MI Tot Obama McCain Made up 74% 74% 73% Might change 23 23 24 DK/NA 3 3 3 MN Tot Obama McCain Made up 74% 77% 69% Might change 25 22 29 DK/NA 1 1 2 WI Tot Obama McCain Made up 78% 80% 77% Might change 20 19 23 DK/NA 1 2 1
2a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat and Bob Schaffer the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Udall or Schaffer? This table includes "Leaners". (CO only)
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Udall 48% 8% 89% 54% 43% 53% 47% 57% 62% Schaffer 38 82 7 27 46 32 40 34 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - - DK/NA 12 9 4 17 9 14 12 8 10
2a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Al Franken the DFL candidate and Norm Coleman the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Franken or Coleman? This table includes "Leaners". (MN only)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Franken 41% 4% 76% 35% 37% 45% 40% 47% Coleman 51 92 17 55 57 45 52 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 3 5 8 4 8 6 5
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Favorable 53% 25% 85% 55% 50% 56% 51% 62% 55% Unfavorable 33 62 6 28 37 28 34 25 25 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 8 15 10 13 12 13 17 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 - 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 54% 26% 79% 54% 51% 56% 49% 88% 59% Unfavorable 27 58 8 22 32 23 31 1 20 Hvn't hrd enough 16 13 12 22 14 18 17 10 20 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 59% 29% 78% 64% 57% 60% 57% 57% Unfavorable 22 51 6 20 24 20 24 21 Hvn't hrd enough 16 18 13 14 16 16 17 18 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 54% 22% 79% 55% 53% 55% 52% 61% Unfavorable 27 63 7 22 29 25 29 23 Hvn't hrd enough 16 11 12 19 15 16 15 15 REFUSED 4 3 2 4 3 4 4 2
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Favorable 53% 83% 24% 51% 55% 50% 55% 49% 50% Unfavorable 32 10 58 31 33 32 32 27 34 Hvn't hrd enough 13 7 15 15 10 15 10 22 14 REFUSED 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 49% 83% 23% 52% 57% 43% 56% 12% 43% Unfavorable 29 7 51 24 29 30 26 43 36 Hvn't hrd enough 18 7 23 21 12 24 15 39 19 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 46% 73% 29% 46% 52% 41% 48% 46% Unfavorable 32 9 53 29 30 33 31 35 Hvn't hrd enough 19 16 15 20 14 22 17 16 REFUSED 4 3 3 5 4 3 3 3 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 48% 83% 27% 49% 51% 46% 51% 41% Unfavorable 30 6 51 27 31 30 30 37 Hvn't hrd enough 18 9 18 20 15 20 16 20 REFUSED 4 1 4 4 3 4 3 2
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Terrorism 8% 20% 2% 4% 10% 6% 8% 10% 9% The war in Iraq 19 11 28 21 19 20 20 16 19 The economy 47 40 50 51 47 46 47 46 48 Illegal immigration 9 16 3 7 10 8 9 11 11 Health care 10 7 14 10 6 14 10 11 7 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 2 3 DK/NA 3 4 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Terrorism 8% 19% 3% 6% 10% 6% 9% 4% 7% The war in Iraq 16 9 24 15 15 17 15 25 20 The economy 56 51 57 56 54 57 55 53 53 Illegal immigration 3 5 1 4 4 3 4 - 3 Health care 10 6 13 12 10 11 10 13 11 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 7 1 4 5 3 4 2 4 DK/NA 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 4 2 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Terrorism 5% 12% 1% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% The war in Iraq 21 17 26 19 21 22 20 21 The economy 51 53 50 52 54 48 53 51 Illegal immigration 5 5 3 8 6 4 5 6 Health care 11 3 17 11 8 14 10 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 3 DK/NA 3 5 2 2 3 4 3 4 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Terrorism 8% 19% 1% 9% 9% 7% 8% 5% The war in Iraq 20 13 25 19 19 21 20 22 The economy 47 47 49 48 50 45 48 50 Illegal immigration 4 9 2 3 5 4 5 4 Health care 14 7 19 12 10 16 13 14 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 4 2 5 4 3 4 3 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 3 3 2 2
5. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds More likely 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 4% 3% Less likely 19 6 32 21 17 22 19 11 19 Doesn't make diff 78 91 65 77 81 75 78 84 77 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 1% 2% - 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% Less likely 18 5 30 18 16 19 16 36 19 Doesn't make diff 79 92 67 79 82 77 82 58 79 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% Less likely 22 6 33 26 22 23 22 24 Doesn't make diff 75 88 66 71 75 74 75 75 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% Less likely 20 10 30 17 19 21 20 22 Doesn't make diff 77 87 68 80 77 76 78 76 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 -
6. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds More likely 4% 3% 7% 4% 4% 5% 3% 9% 7% Less likely 3 5 2 3 3 3 4 5 3 Doesn't make diff 91 91 90 93 92 91 93 86 87 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 - 3 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 5% 1% 9% 6% 5% 6% 4% 18% 4% Less likely 4 6 2 5 4 3 4 1 2 Doesn't make diff 90 92 89 88 89 90 91 78 93 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 2 1 1 3 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 5% 2% 8% 4% 7% 3% 4% 4% Less likely 3 5 2 2 3 4 3 2 Doesn't make diff 90 92 89 93 88 91 91 93 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 4% 2% 7% 2% 3% 5% 3% 4% Less likely 4 8 4 3 4 4 5 4 Doesn't make diff 91 89 88 95 92 89 92 92 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 1 -
7. In deciding your vote for President how important is the vice-presidential candidate - Very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Very important 37% 33% 38% 41% 32% 43% 37% 42% 39% Smwht important 45 51 46 40 44 46 44 47 46 Not too important 13 12 13 14 18 8 15 2 11 Not imprtnt at all 4 2 2 5 4 3 3 9 3 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 2 - 1 - 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very important 43% 38% 46% 47% 36% 49% 41% 51% 44% Smwht important 40 42 39 38 41 40 43 31 42 Not too important 11 15 9 11 15 8 12 8 8 Not imprtnt at all 4 4 5 4 7 2 4 6 6 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 5 - Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very important 37% 37% 36% 36% 32% 41% 37% 38% Smwht important 45 46 47 46 44 46 45 43 Not too important 14 14 15 14 18 11 15 13 Not imprtnt at all 3 3 3 4 5 2 3 5 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very important 41% 32% 45% 43% 32% 48% 39% 38% Smwht important 44 50 41 41 47 41 46 45 Not too important 12 14 11 13 16 9 13 13 Not imprtnt at all 3 3 3 3 5 1 3 3 DK/NA - - - 1 1 - - -
8. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Yes 29% 15% 45% 28% 23% 35% 27% 35% 33% No 54 65 43 56 58 51 56 50 57 DK/NA 17 21 12 16 19 14 17 15 10 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 34% 16% 56% 25% 29% 39% 30% 53% 37% No 47 63 29 54 52 43 51 28 45 DK/NA 19 21 15 20 19 18 19 19 18 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Yes 34% 14% 51% 31% 26% 41% 33% 38% No 49 68 37 47 55 44 49 44 DK/NA 17 18 11 22 19 15 18 19 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Yes 33% 15% 52% 29% 27% 39% 32% 35% No 48 61 35 52 51 44 49 50 DK/NA 19 24 13 19 22 16 19 16
9. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds More likely 14% 3% 25% 15% 9% 20% 13% 20% 22% Less likely 24 43 3 26 27 22 26 15 28 Doesn't make diff 60 52 71 58 63 56 59 64 50 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 16% 4% 32% 11% 11% 21% 15% 18% 18% Less likely 24 42 8 28 28 21 28 9 21 Doesn't make diff 57 52 58 57 58 56 55 71 60 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 19% 5% 29% 20% 12% 25% 18% 21% Less likely 21 38 8 21 26 17 23 24 Doesn't make diff 57 54 62 58 60 55 56 53 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 1 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 18% 4% 30% 17% 13% 22% 18% 20% Less likely 21 43 6 22 23 20 23 24 Doesn't make diff 59 52 63 58 63 55 56 54 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 3
9a. If John McCain chooses Tim Pawlenty to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? (MN & WI only)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 18% 37% 6% 16% 20% 17% 19% 22% Less likely 23 5 35 24 22 23 22 28 Doesn't make diff 56 56 57 57 56 57 56 49 DK/NA 3 2 1 3 2 4 3 1 LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 4% 8% 1% 3% 5% 3% 4% 4% Less likely 7 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 Doesn't make diff 81 78 84 83 81 81 81 83 DK/NA 8 10 5 8 6 9 8 6
10. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think she would enthusiastically promote Barack Obama's agenda at the expense of her own ideas or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Yes 38% 19% 60% 40% 37% 39% 38% 43% 47% No 44 65 25 39 48 40 44 44 35 DK/NA 18 16 15 21 14 21 18 13 19 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 41% 33% 53% 39% 43% 40% 43% 32% 42% No 43 52 31 47 43 43 42 50 42 DK/NA 16 15 16 14 14 18 16 18 16 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Yes 42% 26% 57% 40% 40% 43% 42% 41% No 42 58 29 42 44 39 41 44 DK/NA 17 16 15 18 16 18 18 15 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Yes 41% 26% 56% 36% 38% 43% 42% 44% No 43 60 29 44 48 38 42 40 DK/NA 16 14 15 19 14 19 16 16
11. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think Bill Clinton would be a problem to the Obama administration or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Yes 44% 64% 28% 40% 47% 41% 45% 34% 36% No 50 29 66 54 49 51 50 56 58 DK/NA 6 7 6 5 4 8 5 10 5 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 40% 59% 25% 41% 46% 35% 43% 23% 38% No 54 36 70 55 48 59 51 68 57 DK/NA 6 5 5 4 6 6 6 9 6 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Yes 37% 57% 21% 38% 41% 33% 37% 30% No 56 33 73 55 54 58 55 62 DK/NA 7 10 6 7 6 9 8 8 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Yes 41% 66% 23% 43% 46% 37% 42% 37% No 54 30 73 50 49 58 53 59 DK/NA 5 4 4 6 4 6 5 4
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Approve 31% 66% 5% 23% 34% 28% 32% 31% 25% Disapprove 63 26 94 72 61 66 63 66 69 DK/NA 6 8 1 5 6 6 6 2 6 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 26% 64% 5% 19% 31% 22% 29% 9% 21% Disapprove 67 28 92 74 64 70 65 87 75 DK/NA 6 8 2 7 5 7 6 4 4 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Approve 24% 59% 4% 18% 26% 23% 26% 23% Disapprove 70 32 93 76 68 71 69 73 DK/NA 6 9 2 6 5 7 5 4 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Approve 27% 64% 4% 22% 30% 24% 29% 24% Disapprove 67 26 93 71 66 68 66 74 DK/NA 6 10 2 6 5 8 6 2
13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Very satisfied 3% 8% 1% 2% 5% 2% 3% 4% 1% Smwht satisfied 21 44 4 16 24 18 22 22 21 Smwht dissatisfied 30 31 23 33 31 29 31 22 32 Very dissatisfied 46 16 72 48 40 50 43 51 47 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 - Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very satisfied 2% 4% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% Smwht satisfied 14 33 3 10 17 12 17 - 11 Smwht dissatisfied 27 41 17 28 27 27 30 13 24 Very dissatisfied 56 21 79 60 52 59 51 82 62 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 3 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very satisfied 3% 5% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Smwht satisfied 18 36 6 15 20 16 18 16 Smwht dissatisfied 32 42 25 31 31 32 32 29 Very dissatisfied 47 17 69 49 46 48 47 53 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very satisfied 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% Smwht satisfied 18 43 4 14 19 18 19 13 Smwht dissatisfied 32 42 22 33 33 30 33 34 Very dissatisfied 47 12 72 50 45 49 46 52 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -
14. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Right thing 39% 74% 7% 37% 46% 33% 42% 31% 39% Wrong thing 55 18 90 58 49 60 53 65 54 DK/NA 6 8 3 5 5 6 5 4 7 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Right thing 32% 71% 9% 25% 39% 26% 37% 1% 29% Wrong thing 60 21 87 65 56 64 55 96 64 DK/NA 8 8 4 9 5 10 8 3 6 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Right thing 31% 65% 8% 28% 34% 28% 32% 26% Wrong thing 61 28 85 64 59 64 60 63 DK/NA 8 8 6 8 7 8 8 11 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Right thing 35% 77% 11% 29% 39% 31% 37% 35% Wrong thing 59 18 84 66 57 61 58 62 DK/NA 6 5 5 5 4 8 5 4
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds A. Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 39% 9% 65% 41% 35% 42% 36% 49% 43% B. Stay until stable/ no fixed dates 56 87 27 54 61 50 58 45 55 DK/NA 6 4 8 5 4 8 6 6 3 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A. Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 41% 13% 62% 40% 34% 46% 37% 65% 46% B. Stay until stable/ no fixed dates 52 82 31 52 61 44 55 23 46 DK/NA 8 5 8 8 5 10 7 11 8 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds A. Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 38% 14% 58% 37% 31% 45% 37% 39% B. Stay until stable/ no fixed dates 54 82 35 55 62 46 55 52 DK/NA 8 3 7 8 7 9 8 9 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds A. Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 41% 15% 65% 38% 37% 45% 40% 46% B. Stay until stable/ no fixed dates 51 81 26 56 57 46 54 47 DK/NA 7 4 9 7 6 8 7 8
16. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Getting ahead 16% 24% 10% 15% 20% 13% 16% 11% 11% Falling behind 21 14 29 19 18 23 20 20 17 Holding steady 62 62 60 64 61 63 63 67 71 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 3 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Getting ahead 10% 17% 6% 8% 11% 9% 10% 11% 7% Falling behind 27 13 31 32 25 29 26 31 29 Holding steady 62 70 62 59 64 60 63 58 64 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Getting ahead 15% 20% 10% 15% 18% 12% 14% 14% Falling behind 23 13 28 25 22 24 22 22 Holding steady 61 66 61 59 60 63 62 62 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Getting ahead 13% 19% 9% 11% 16% 10% 12% 14% Falling behind 24 14 33 23 23 25 23 25 Holding steady 62 67 58 65 61 64 64 61 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 -
17. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds A. Retirement funds 8% 8% 10% 8% 10% 6% 9% 6% 10% B. Real estate val 11 12 8 12 13 9 11 13 7 C. Health care cost 19 14 25 20 19 19 21 8 15 D. Gasoline prices 43 48 40 41 42 43 41 53 48 E. Food prices 14 13 13 15 10 17 14 13 18 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 7 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A. Retirement funds 9% 9% 8% 10% 8% 10% 9% 7% 11% B. Real estate val 12 15 13 10 14 10 12 12 13 C. Health care cost 17 12 19 20 16 17 17 16 14 D. Gasoline prices 44 48 41 42 45 44 45 38 46 E. Food prices 13 9 14 14 12 13 12 18 12 DK/NA 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 9 4 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds A. Retirement funds 9% 11% 10% 9% 10% 8% 10% 11% B. Real estate val 9 11 8 9 11 6 8 6 C. Health care cost 21 11 29 20 19 23 21 19 D. Gasoline prices 42 52 37 40 44 41 43 49 E. Food prices 14 11 14 16 11 16 13 10 DK/NA 6 4 3 7 6 5 5 5 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds A. Retirement funds 10% 10% 8% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% B. Real estate val 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 C. Health care cost 21 18 26 20 20 23 22 23 D. Gasoline prices 43 50 41 41 44 43 44 47 E. Food prices 15 13 15 14 14 15 13 10 DK/NA 5 2 4 7 6 4 5 5
18. As you may know, there is a proposed state constitutional amendment on the November ballot. It says that the state shall not discriminate against or grant preferential treatment to any group or individual on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public contracting, or public education. Do you think that you will vote for or against this state constitutional amendment? (CO only)
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds For 66% 61% 71% 68% 67% 66% 66% 68% 63% Against 15 18 15 13 17 14 16 14 18 DK/NA 18 21 14 19 16 20 18 18 18