Presidential Swing States (CO, MI, MN & WI) Poll * August 24, 2008 * McCain, Obama In Dead Heat In - Quinnipiac University

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August 24, 2008 - McCain, Obama In Dead Heat In Colorado, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dem Has Very Small Lead On Economy

Word format Sen. Barack Obama enters the Democratic National Convention in a dead heat with Sen. John McCain for Colorado's crucial nine electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today. Sen. McCain has 47 percent to Sen. Obama's 46 percent.
This compares to a July 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing McCain with 46 percent of likely voters to Obama's 44 percent and a June 26 survey with a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead.
This latest survey might have more good news for McCain than might appear at first glance. Despite the closeness of the horse race numbers, he is viewed favorably 53 - 34 percent compared to Obama's 48 - 39 percent.
Colorado voters trust Obama more than McCain 49 - 42 percent to handle the energy crisis, 47 - 43 percent to handle the economy and 48 - 41 percent to handle a natural disaster.
But they trust McCain more, 51 - 37 percent, to handle Russia, 57 - 35 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the U.S. and 56 - 36 percent to handle a conflict between Iran and Israel.
"Colorado is one of the most important battleground states that will decide the presidency as Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama slug it out nose to nose. If the national election is close in November, a handful of votes in Colorado will be decisive," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Right now, independent voters are split with 46 percent for Sen. McCain and 44 percent for Sen. Obama.
"Who wins the election may wind up depending on whether voters look inward to the economy and fuel prices or outward to world hot spots."
"The favorability ratings are significant because they show that McCain has made a good impression on voters, even some who may not be for him at this point," Brown said.
"It's likely that between now and Election Day voter opinion will sway back and forth at the margins. It would be surprising if Obama did not enjoy some kind of short-term bump from the convention being held in Denver."
McCain leads 55 - 38 percent among men, 52 - 42 percent among white voters and 70 - 22 percent among evangelical Christians.
Colorado women back Obama 54 - 39 percent, and Hispanic voters back the Democrat 65 - 23 percent.
Voters 18 to 34 years old back Obama 50 - 43 percent, while voters 35 to 54 split with 48 percent for McCain and 47 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go with McCain 48 - 42 percent.
"The gender gap among white voters is a huge 14 points: McCain is up 60 - 35 percent among men while Obama leads 49 - 44 percent among women," said Brown.
The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 48 percent of Colorado voters say, while 16 percent list the war in Iraq, 11 percent list health care and 10 percent cite illegal immigration.
A total of 86 percent of likely voters say they know McCain's positions on the issues "very well" or "somewhat well," compared to 80 percent who know Obama's positions.
"McCain's ability to contest the economic issue - which voters say is their most important concern - is key to his strength. Colorado voters give Obama a narrow 47 - 43 percent lead when they are asked who can best fix the economy," Brown said.
Colorado voters disapprove 66 - 30 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 46 - 38 percent that they want a Democrat elected to the White House.
From August 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,060 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Obama 46% 9% 86% 44% 38% 54% 42% 65% McCain 47 88 8 46 55 39 52 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 6 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 2 5 7 5 6 5 6 IMP ISSUE Q4............... Denvr/ Arap/ RestOf War Econ Terr HlthCr Bouldr Jeff West State Obama 63% 51% 11% 64% 56% 48% 40% 38% McCain 34 43 87 19 36 46 54 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 5 4 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 5 2 12 4 5 5 6 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 50% 47% 42% 36% 50% 35% 49% 22% 42% McCain 43 48 48 57 45 60 44 70 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 8 6 4 5 5 5 5 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 13% 86% 5% 66% McCain 83 10 90 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 3 3 3 5
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS......... Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 26 2008 2008 2008 Obama 46 44 49 McCain 47 46 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 5 7 5
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 83% 85% 81% Might change 16 14 18 DK/NA 1 1 1
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Favorable 48% 15% 82% 49% 41% 55% 44% 65% Unfavorable 39 75 9 34 47 32 42 26 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 8 14 10 11 11 8 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 26 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 48 51 53 Unfavorable 39 35 33 Hvn't hrd enough 10 11 12 REFUSED 2 3 2
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Favorable 53% 83% 27% 53% 60% 46% 57% 41% Unfavorable 34 9 60 32 30 39 31 42 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 9 12 7 12 9 13 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 26 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 53 54 53 Unfavorable 34 30 32 Hvn't hrd enough 9 12 13 REFUSED 3 3 3
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Terrorism 7% 15% 1% 5% 9% 6% 8% 3% The war in Iraq 16 12 22 17 14 19 16 18 The economy 48 46 52 48 51 45 47 54 Illegal immigration 10 13 4 10 11 8 10 5 Health care 11 4 17 11 6 16 10 15 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 5 8 3 6 6 4 6 3 DK/NA 3 2 1 4 3 2 3 2
TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS......... Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 26 2008 2008 2008 Terrorism 7 9 8 The war in Iraq 16 17 19 The economy 48 48 47 Illegal immigration 10 11 9 Health care 11 10 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 5 4 3 DK/NA 3 2 3
5. Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election - that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Democrat 46% 6% 91% 43% 36% 57% 42% 66% Republican 38 84 3 29 47 29 42 19 DK/NA 16 10 6 28 18 14 16 15
6. How well do you feel you know Barack Obama's positions on the issues? Very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Very well 32% 35% 33% 29% 36% 28% 31% 34% Smwht well 48 40 52 52 43 54 49 53 Not too well 13 15 12 12 12 13 13 9 Not well at all 5 8 3 6 7 4 6 4 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 -
7. As you've gotten to know more about Barack Obama during the Presidential campaign, would you say that you like him more or like him less?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His More 45% 18% 75% 44% 39% 52% 42% 62% Less 44 74 12 45 52 36 47 29 VOL No Change 7 4 10 8 7 7 7 5 DK/NA 4 5 3 2 3 5 4 4
8. How well do you feel you know John McCain's positions on the issues? Very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Very well 35% 42% 29% 36% 44% 27% 35% 36% Smwht well 51 49 53 51 47 56 53 42 Not too well 8 5 11 10 5 12 8 15 Not well at all 4 4 6 3 3 5 3 6 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1
9. As you've gotten to know more about John McCain during the Presidential campaign, would you say that you like him more or like him less?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His More 43% 72% 17% 40% 47% 38% 46% 33% Less 41 16 66 43 37 45 38 51 VOL No Change 12 8 12 14 12 11 11 10 DK/NA 5 4 6 4 4 6 5 6
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Approve 30% 67% 2% 23% 33% 26% 32% 20% Disapprove 66 25 97 75 63 70 63 76 DK/NA 4 7 1 2 4 4 4 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 26 2008 2008 2008 Approve 30 31 31 Disapprove 66 62 63 DK/NA 4 7 6
11. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His A) Retirement funds 13% 10% 12% 17% 14% 12% 13% 7% B) Real estate vals 13 15 10 13 15 10 13 9 C) Health care cost 22 13 33 20 16 28 20 27 D) Gasoline prices 30 41 24 25 35 26 30 33 E) Food prices 16 14 16 18 13 19 16 18 DK/NA 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 6
TREND: As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -
LIKELY VOTERS......... Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 26 2008 2008 2008 A. Retirement funds 13 10 8 B. Real estate val 13 9 11 C. Health care cost 22 20 19 D. Gasoline prices 30 42 43 E. Food prices 16 13 14 DK/NA 7 6 5
12. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - The energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Obama 49% 16% 82% 51% 41% 58% 46% 58% McCain 42 79 9 39 50 34 46 28 DK/NA 9 5 9 10 9 8 8 14
13. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - Relations with Russia - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Obama 37% 7% 68% 38% 31% 44% 33% 52% McCain 51 87 19 47 60 42 55 32 DK/NA 12 6 13 15 10 14 12 15
14. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - A terrorist incident in the United States - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Obama 35% 6% 68% 33% 26% 44% 30% 52% McCain 57 91 22 57 66 47 61 40 DK/NA 9 4 10 10 8 9 9 8
15. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - A natural disaster in the United States on the scale of Hurricane Katrina - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Obama 48% 15% 82% 48% 44% 53% 43% 69% McCain 41 76 10 38 47 35 44 26 DK/NA 11 10 8 14 10 12 12 5
16. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - The economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Obama 47% 11% 83% 47% 38% 55% 43% 60% McCain 43 80 8 42 52 34 47 25 DK/NA 10 9 9 12 10 11 10 15
17. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - A potential conflict between Israel and Iran - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Obama 36% 4% 67% 36% 29% 43% 32% 52% McCain 56 90 24 55 63 48 60 41 DK/NA 8 5 9 9 7 8 8 7