Presidential Swing States (CO, MI, MN & WI) Poll * September 23, 2008 * Change Puts Obama Up Slightly - Quinnipiac University

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September 23, 2008 - Change Puts Obama Up Slightly In Four Battlegrounds, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds --- COLORADO: Obama 49 - McCain 45 MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 44 MINNESOTA: Obama 47 - McCain 45 WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - McCain 42

Word format By 19 - 24 point margins, voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin say Democrat Barack Obama, not Republican John McCain, is the candidate of change, helping lift Sen. Obama into the lead in these battleground states, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.
More voters in each state also would rather see Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Joseph Biden become President, even though voters in each state say Sen. McCain's selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as running mate is a good choice. Sen. Obama has double-digit leads among women in every state except Minnesota, where his six-point lead leaves him with only a two-point edge among all voters. Overall results show:
Colorado: Obama leads 49 - 45 percent, compared to 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama August 24; Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 44 percent, compared to 46 - 42 percent July 24; Minnesota: Obama leads 47 - 45 percent, compared to 46 - 44 percent July 24; Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 49 - 42 percent, compared to 50 - 39 percent July 24.
"With a lousy economy, an unpopular war and an even less popular Republican President, it's difficult to find voters who don't want change, " said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Obama, who leads in all four states, has made himself the candidate of change with a dual-track strategy: Joining Sen. McCain at the hip with President George Bush, who symbolizes the status quo, while sharply defining himself and his policies as the antithesis of the President. The Wall Street meltdown while these polls were in the field probably fed the public desire for change and seemed to benefit Sen. Obama," Brown added.
"Despite Gov. Palin's presence on the Republican ticket, Obama continues to do well enough among white women - who are the key swing group in the election - to take the lead. His ability to remain competitive among white women and hold down Sen. McCain's margin among white men will be the key to his winning the election."
President Bush's approval ratings are:
24 - 71 percent in Colorado; 25 - 71 percent in Michigan; 24 - 71 percent in Minnesota; 26 - 69 percent in Wisconsin.
Colorado
Obama leads 55 - 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 - 42 percent. White voters back McCain 51 - 44 percent as Hispanic voters go with Obama 68 - 26 percent. Obama and McCain are tied 48 - 48 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 back Obama 52 - 42 percent. Voters over 55 go 47 percent with McCain and 46 percent with Obama.
Obama will bring change, 46 percent of voters say, while 22 percent say McCain will bring change and 26 percent say neither candidate will bring change.
McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as a running mate is a good choice, voters say 55 - 38 percent, and Obama's selection of Sen. Biden is a good choice, voters say 52 - 32 percent.
But by a 49 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 - 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.
The economy is the most important issue in the election, 51 percent of Colorado voters say. Obama better understands the economy, voters say 47 - 41 percent, while McCain better understands foreign policy, voters say 63 - 29 percent.
In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 - 40 percent, compared to a 44 - 44 percent tie July 24.
"Two years ago when the Democrats picked Denver for their convention, one of the main reasons was the hope it would help them win Colorado, which is shaping up as a key state in the Electoral College. Sen. Obama has come from behind to take the lead there and it is a reasonable assumption that the convention has something to do with this," Brown said.
Michigan
Michigan women voters back Obama 52 - 40 percent, while men back McCain 49 - 44 percent. White voters back McCain 51 - 41 percent, as black voters support Obama 93 - 5 percent. The Democrat leads 51 - 48 percent among voters 18 to 34, and gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain's 45 percent. Voters over 55 back Obama 49 - 41 percent.
Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 - 21 percent.
Palin's selection is a good choice, voters say 58 - 32 percent, while these same voters say 51 - 30 percent that Biden is a good choice.
By a 47 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women back Biden 50 - 38 percent while men go 47 percent for Palin and 45 percent for Biden.
The economy is the most important issue, 58 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 50 - 38 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 64 - 26 percent.
"Sen. Obama's lead in Michigan is built upon two key changes since the last Quinnipiac University poll: He has consolidated the Democratic base to the same degree that Sen. McCain has coalesced the Republican vote, and his lead among those who see the economy as the most important issue has almost doubled, from 50 - 39 percent to 55 - 35 percent," Brown said.
Minnesota
Obama leads McCain 49 - 43 percent with women, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters go with McCain 48 - 44 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years go 51 - 43 percent for Obama. Voters 35 to 54 go 51 - 43 percent for McCain, with the Democrat up 50 - 40 percent among voters over 55.
Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 - 24 percent.
Palin is a good choice, voters say 56 - 35 percent and Biden is a good choice, these voters say 52 - 31 percent. They would rather see Biden step up as President, voters say 50 - 41 percent, including women 49 - 39 percent and men 50 - 43 percent.
The economy is the biggest issue, 55 percent of voters say. Voters tie 45 - 45 percent on who better understands the economy, but say 66 - 24 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.
In the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman tops Democrat Al Franken 49 - 42 percent, compared to 53 - 38 percent July 24.
"Sen. John McCain is within striking distance in Minnesota for two reasons: Republicans held their convention in the state and the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin brought a new wave of independent women to the GOP ticket, offsetting a big swing by independent men to Obama," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Al Franken now trails Sen. Norman Coleman by seven points, down from 15, mainly because Democratic support for Coleman has dropped eight points from 19 points in the last poll."
Wisconsin
Wisconsin women voters back Obama 53 - 37 percent while men back McCain 48 - 45 percent. Obama leads 55 - 38 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 47 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 49 - 43 percent among voters over 55.
Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 45 - 22 percent.
Palin is a good choice, voters say 57 - 33 percent and Biden is a good choice, voters say 47 - 33 percent. Voters prefer Biden as President 46 - 42 percent. Women prefer Biden 47 - 37 percent while men back Palin by a narrow 46 - 44 percent.
The economy is the biggest issue, 51 percent say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 47 - 40 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 65 - 23 percent.
"Sen. McCain has closed the gap from 11 points to seven by picking up support from independent women, but Sen. Obama is holding his own among blue collar workers, a group McCain must swing into his column if he wants to win the state," Richards said.
From September 14 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,418 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,364 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,301 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,313 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.
These surveys of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union COLORADO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Obama 49% 7% 91% 51% 42% 55% 44% 68% 55% McCain 45 89 6 40 49 40 51 26 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 3 7 6 4 4 6 6 IMP ISSUE Q12............. Energ Denvr/ Arap/ RestOf War Econ Terr Polcy Bouldr Jeff West State Obama 58% 58% 8% 42% 64% 51% 38% 37% McCain 40 38 89 54 29 42 58 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 4 3 3 5 5 3 6 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 48% 52% 46% 40% 49% 38% 49% 20% 47% McCain 48 42 47 53 47 54 47 74 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 5 6 5 3 5 4 5 5 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ25 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 10% 89% 4% 66% McCain 85 8 91 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 4 2 4 5 Sep 23 Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 26 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 49 46 44 49 McCain 45 47 46 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 5 7 5
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS....... CAND CHOICEQ1 CO Tot Obama McCain Made up 87% 88% 85% Might change 12 11 13 DK/NA 1 1 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union MICHIGAN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Obama 48% 7% 89% 49% 44% 52% 41% 93% 60% McCain 44 88 8 42 49 40 51 5 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 3 8 6 7 7 2 6 IMP ISSUE Q12............. Energ Wayne Oak/ RestOf War Econ Terr Polcy County Macomb SthW State Obama 59% 55% 4% 36% 63% 42% 43% 46% McCain 35 35 94 58 33 52 50 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 8 2 5 3 5 5 10 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 51% 47% 49% 41% 42% 37% 45% 27% 39% McCain 48 45 41 50 52 55 47 69 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 6 9 8 5 7 8 5 8 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ25 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 11% 85% 5% 66% McCain 84 9 92 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 4 5 3 7 Sep 23 Jul 24 Jun 26 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 Obama 48 46 48 McCain 44 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 7 9 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS....... CAND CHOICEQ1 MI Tot Obama McCain Made up 80% 82% 78% Might change 19 17 20 DK/NA 1 1 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union MINNESOTA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Obama 47% 4% 92% 43% 45% 49% 44% 56% McCain 45 93 5 45 47 43 48 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 2 3 10 5 7 7 7 IMP ISSUE Q12............. Energ Twin Twin War Econ Terr Polcy Cities Suburb West East Obama 63% 53% 4% 34% 60% 38% 42% 43% McCain 33 38 94 62 33 55 47 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 8 1 3 7 4 8 5 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 51% 43% 50% 40% 52% 42% 46% 29% 37% McCain 43 51 40 51 43 51 46 64 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 1 1 2 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 8 8 4 6 8 6 9 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ25 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 9% 84% 4% 65% McCain 87 10 94 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 3 4 2 7 Sep 23 Jul 24 Jun 26 TTREND: 2008 2008 2008 Obama 47 46 54 McCain 45 44 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 6 8 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICEQ1 MN Tot Obama McCain Made up 85% 84% 86% Might change 15 15 14 DK/NA 1 1 -
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union WISCONSIN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Obama 49% 6% 90% 42% 45% 53% 46% 58% McCain 42 91 5 44 48 37 45 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 4 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 5 10 5 9 7 8 IMP ISSUE Q12............. Energ Milwak RestOf War Econ Terr Polcy Milwak Vicnty South State Obama 58% 57% 3% 42% 54% 39% 57% 47% McCain 34 35 89 55 34 56 32 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 8 1 9 4 9 7 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 55% 47% 49% 45% 50% 42% 51% 31% 43% McCain 38 44 43 45 46 51 40 63 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 1 - 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 8 8 3 5 9 5 9 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ25 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 12% 87% 4% 69% McCain 82 9 90 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 3 4 7 Sep 23 Jul 24 Jun 26 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 Obama 49 50 52 McCain 42 39 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 7 9 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS....... CAND CHOICEQ1 WI Tot Obama McCain Made up 84% 86% 81% Might change 15 12 19 DK/NA 1 2 -
2a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat and Bob Schaffer the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2a) As of today, do you lean more toward Udall or Schaffer? This table includes "Leaners".
SENATE LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union COLORADO ONLY Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Udall 48% 13% 86% 49% 44% 53% 44% 64% 52% Schaffer 40 80 8 31 46 34 45 21 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 11 7 6 17 8 13 10 13 13
2a.If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Al Franken the Democrat and Norm Coleman the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2a) As of today, do you lean more toward Franken or Coleman? This table includes "Leaners".
SENATE LIKELY VOTERS................................... Union MINNESOTA ONLY Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Franken 42% 4% 84% 38% 42% 43% 40% 53% Coleman 49 93 11 50 51 48 52 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 3 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 1 4 8 3 8 6 4
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Favorable 58% 24% 90% 62% 54% 62% 54% 73% 59% Unfavorable 33 68 4 26 37 29 37 16 31 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 5 10 7 7 6 11 10 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 - 1 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 54% 21% 86% 55% 52% 55% 48% 91% 60% Unfavorable 31 65 6 27 37 27 36 4 27 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 7 15 10 14 13 3 11 REFUSED 3 3 1 4 2 4 4 2 3 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 54% 17% 87% 56% 52% 55% 52% 58% Unfavorable 30 66 4 25 32 28 32 26 Hvn't hrd enough 12 13 7 16 12 12 13 12 REFUSED 3 3 1 3 3 4 3 4 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 53% 16% 85% 50% 48% 58% 51% 57% Unfavorable 31 67 3 32 37 25 33 28 Hvn't hrd enough 12 13 11 13 11 13 12 13 REFUSED 4 4 1 6 4 4 4 2
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Favorable 56% 88% 24% 55% 60% 51% 62% 31% 52% Unfavorable 35 8 67 32 31 39 31 49 40 Hvn't hrd enough 6 3 6 9 6 6 4 19 7 REFUSED 3 1 4 3 2 3 3 2 1 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 51% 89% 17% 53% 55% 47% 57% 14% 45% Unfavorable 37 6 70 35 34 40 31 72 44 Hvn't hrd enough 9 4 10 9 9 9 8 10 8 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 4 3 4 3 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 56% 93% 23% 58% 62% 52% 59% 50% Unfavorable 32 3 67 24 30 33 30 36 Hvn't hrd enough 9 4 8 15 6 12 9 11 REFUSED 3 - 2 3 2 3 2 3 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 49% 91% 17% 52% 53% 46% 53% 42% Unfavorable 37 4 67 34 37 37 34 46 Hvn't hrd enough 11 5 14 10 8 13 10 10 REFUSED 3 - 2 5 2 4 3 3
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Favorable 40% 15% 68% 39% 41% 39% 37% 49% 49% Unfavorable 27 53 4 22 32 21 30 12 22 Hvn't hrd enough 32 32 26 38 26 38 31 39 29 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 - - Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 35% 11% 62% 34% 33% 36% 31% 62% 42% Unfavorable 23 46 4 21 32 16 26 - 17 Hvn't hrd enough 40 42 33 42 34 46 41 36 38 REFUSED 2 1 - 2 1 2 2 2 2 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 39% 12% 68% 38% 42% 37% 38% 45% Unfavorable 20 44 3 18 26 15 22 18 Hvn't hrd enough 38 43 29 43 30 45 38 35 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 34% 9% 58% 31% 34% 34% 33% 39% Unfavorable 23 48 4 26 31 16 24 21 Hvn't hrd enough 41 43 38 42 34 48 42 38 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Favorable 43% 81% 9% 39% 45% 41% 48% 26% 41% Unfavorable 35 5 69 33 31 38 32 45 42 Hvn't hrd enough 20 12 20 27 22 18 18 29 16 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 - 1 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 40% 72% 12% 40% 42% 38% 45% 6% 31% Unfavorable 29 3 58 26 25 32 26 43 32 Hvn't hrd enough 29 24 29 31 31 28 27 47 35 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 3 2 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 43% 81% 13% 41% 44% 42% 46% 37% Unfavorable 33 2 64 30 32 33 30 38 Hvn't hrd enough 24 16 22 28 23 24 24 25 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Favorable 40% 82% 10% 39% 44% 36% 43% 33% Unfavorable 31 2 57 29 29 33 29 39 Hvn't hrd enough 27 15 31 29 25 28 26 27 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1
6. Do you think John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Good choice 55% 88% 21% 54% 61% 49% 61% 35% 52% Bad choice 38 8 71 36 33 42 33 52 42 DK/NA 8 4 8 10 6 9 7 13 5 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Good choice 58% 86% 30% 60% 63% 54% 62% 30% 52% Bad choice 32 8 60 28 28 35 28 53 39 DK/NA 10 7 10 12 9 11 9 17 9 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Good choice 56% 89% 28% 55% 58% 55% 58% 53% Bad choice 35 8 63 34 36 34 32 41 DK/NA 9 4 9 11 6 11 9 7 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Good choice 57% 92% 30% 56% 61% 53% 60% 53% Bad choice 33 3 58 33 32 35 31 39 DK/NA 10 5 12 11 7 12 9 7
7. Do you think Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Good choice 52% 29% 78% 52% 51% 53% 50% 59% 52% Bad choice 32 54 11 31 38 26 34 24 35 DK/NA 16 17 12 17 11 21 16 16 13 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Good choice 51% 31% 70% 54% 49% 53% 49% 75% 55% Bad choice 30 45 18 28 37 24 32 14 29 DK/NA 19 24 12 17 14 23 19 11 16 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Good choice 52% 31% 72% 53% 54% 50% 51% 55% Bad choice 31 46 17 30 32 31 32 29 DK/NA 17 23 11 17 14 19 18 16 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Good choice 47% 23% 69% 45% 44% 50% 47% 54% Bad choice 33 51 19 35 40 28 34 27 DK/NA 19 26 12 19 16 22 19 19
8. Does John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President make you more likely to vote for McCain for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds More likely 26% 48% 5% 23% 27% 25% 29% 13% 27% Less likely 28 5 48 33 25 32 26 28 28 Doesn't make diff 44 46 46 41 46 42 43 59 43 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 - 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 24% 42% 6% 26% 25% 23% 28% 6% 19% Less likely 22 3 43 23 21 23 19 47 24 Doesn't make diff 51 52 50 48 51 51 51 43 55 DK/NA 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 4 2 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 23% 39% 5% 26% 24% 21% 24% 20% Less likely 24 3 42 26 24 24 23 24 Doesn't make diff 52 58 52 45 50 53 51 55 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 23% 41% 6% 26% 25% 21% 24% 19% Less likely 21 3 37 19 22 20 20 24 Doesn't make diff 54 53 56 53 52 56 54 54 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3
9. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds More likely 16% 5% 30% 13% 14% 17% 14% 20% 30% Less likely 13 21 3 13 17 8 13 12 18 Doesn't make diff 69 73 64 70 65 72 70 64 47 DK/NA 3 1 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 16% 3% 28% 18% 15% 16% 13% 35% 17% Less likely 13 22 4 12 16 9 15 1 8 Doesn't make diff 68 70 67 68 66 70 69 60 71 DK/NA 3 4 1 3 2 4 3 4 4 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 15% 4% 25% 16% 16% 15% 15% 20% Less likely 11 20 4 12 11 12 12 10 Doesn't make diff 72 75 70 70 72 71 71 68 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 13% 3% 23% 11% 13% 13% 12% 16% Less likely 13 19 5 16 17 10 14 9 Doesn't make diff 71 76 70 71 69 73 72 72 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 1 4 2 3
10. If it became necessary, who would you rather see become president of the United States, Sarah Palin or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Palin 42% 82% 4% 37% 46% 37% 47% 20% 36% Biden 49 12 86 50 45 52 45 63 57 DK/NA 10 6 9 13 9 10 8 17 7 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Palin 42% 76% 12% 43% 47% 38% 47% 8% 33% Biden 47 15 82 46 45 50 43 79 56 DK/NA 10 9 6 11 8 12 10 13 11 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Palin 41% 85% 8% 34% 43% 39% 43% 36% Biden 50 9 86 52 50 49 47 56 DK/NA 9 6 6 14 7 12 10 7 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Palin 42% 84% 11% 41% 46% 37% 44% 33% Biden 46 6 81 42 44 47 44 54 DK/NA 13 10 7 16 10 15 12 13
11. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The vice presidential candidates picked by Barack Obama and John McCain have little to do with which candidate I will vote for, for president?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Agree 58% 58% 59% 59% 60% 56% 57% 62% 59% Disagree 39 41 37 38 38 40 40 34 36 DK/NA 3 1 4 3 2 4 3 4 4 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Agree 60% 61% 66% 55% 64% 56% 58% 73% 62% Disagree 36 36 31 42 33 39 38 26 33 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 1 5 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Agree 61% 63% 65% 57% 64% 58% 60% 63% Disagree 36 36 34 39 34 38 37 35 DK/NA 3 1 2 3 2 4 3 1 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Agree 65% 62% 72% 61% 69% 62% 64% 69% Disagree 32 36 26 36 29 35 33 29 DK/NA 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Terrorism 7% 16% 1% 5% 8% 6% 8% 5% 8% The war in Iraq 12 10 16 11 9 15 12 15 6 The economy 51 45 54 54 49 53 50 52 51 Illegal immigration 8 9 4 8 10 6 7 13 8 Energy policy 10 11 10 10 13 7 11 6 10 Health care 7 3 12 6 5 9 7 8 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 - 4 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 4 3 4 2 3 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Terrorism 8% 19% 1% 8% 10% 7% 10% 1% 7% The war in Iraq 11 9 13 9 10 12 12 5 7 The economy 58 46 66 59 55 60 56 71 63 Illegal immigration 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 - 2 Energy policy 6 9 5 5 7 5 7 3 6 Health care 10 9 13 9 9 10 8 17 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 4 1 4 4 2 3 2 4 DK/NA 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Terrorism 7% 17% - 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% The war in Iraq 10 6 13 12 9 12 10 8 The economy 55 46 59 58 54 56 55 58 Illegal immigration 3 6 2 1 3 3 3 4 Energy policy 9 13 9 7 13 6 10 9 Health care 9 4 14 10 7 12 9 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 5 2 2 3 3 3 3 DK/NA 3 4 1 3 3 2 3 2 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Terrorism 7% 15% 1% 6% 8% 5% 7% 6% The war in Iraq 12 9 12 12 9 14 11 8 The economy 51 40 59 52 50 53 52 59 Illegal immigration 3 3 1 4 4 2 3 4 Energy policy 10 12 9 10 14 5 10 8 Health care 11 11 14 8 8 14 10 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 5 2 4 5 3 4 2 DK/NA 3 4 2 5 4 3 3 3
13. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds More likely 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% Less likely 30 10 51 30 28 31 27 35 32 Doesn't make diff 68 88 47 68 69 66 70 59 65 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 2% 3% - 2% 2% 2% 2% - - Less likely 25 10 45 23 21 29 23 43 25 Doesn't make diff 73 87 54 74 77 69 75 57 74 DK/NA - - 1 1 - - - - 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 1% 4% - 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% Less likely 25 5 45 25 25 26 24 28 Doesn't make diff 72 91 54 73 73 72 73 71 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 2% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% Less likely 25 8 40 24 23 26 24 27 Doesn't make diff 72 87 57 75 73 71 73 70 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1
14. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds More likely 6% 3% 10% 4% 5% 7% 4% 11% 11% Less likely 2 4 1 2 2 2 3 1 2 Doesn't make diff 91 93 87 92 92 89 93 84 85 DK/NA 1 - 2 2 1 2 1 4 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 6% 1% 14% 4% 5% 7% 3% 30% 6% Less likely 4 5 3 4 6 2 4 1 4 Doesn't make diff 89 93 83 92 88 90 92 69 90 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 4% 3% 8% 2% 3% 5% 3% 3% Less likely 4 8 1 4 4 4 4 5 Doesn't make diff 91 88 90 93 92 90 92 91 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds More likely 5% 1% 11% 3% 6% 5% 4% 6% Less likely 4 7 2 3 5 3 4 2 Doesn't make diff 90 91 87 94 88 92 92 92 DK/NA - - - 1 - - - -
15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Very likely 6% 2% 6% 10% 5% 8% 5% 8% 10% Smwht likely 16 17 9 23 16 16 15 26 18 Not too likely 24 25 23 24 23 25 27 16 19 Not likely at all 52 56 59 41 54 49 52 45 50 DK/NA 1 - 2 2 1 2 1 4 3 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very likely 7% 5% 6% 11% 8% 7% 6% 11% 8% Smwht likely 19 15 16 24 21 17 19 18 22 Not too likely 21 23 21 20 20 23 22 14 20 Not likely at all 52 56 58 44 51 52 51 57 49 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very likely 5% 1% 3% 8% 4% 5% 5% 6% Smwht likely 19 15 14 26 17 22 20 19 Not too likely 27 31 25 28 27 26 28 23 Not likely at all 48 53 58 36 51 46 47 52 DK/NA 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very likely 7% 4% 10% 6% 5% 8% 6% 7% Smwht likely 18 12 14 26 17 19 19 18 Not too likely 24 27 20 29 24 25 25 23 Not likely at all 49 54 55 39 52 46 48 50 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 CAND CHOICEQ1 Obama McCain CO Very likely 7% 4% Smwht likely 13 16 Not too likely 25 25 Not likely at all 53 53 DK/NA 1 1 MI Very likely 7% 5% Smwht likely 17 19 Not too likely 22 22 Not likely at all 54 53 DK/NA - 1 MN Very likely 4% 4% Smwht likely 18 18 Not too likely 26 29 Not likely at all 53 49 DK/NA - - WI Very likely 6% 5% Smwht likely 16 19 Not too likely 24 26 Not likely at all 53 49 DK/NA 1 2
16. How likely is it that the vice-presidential debate could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Very likely 4% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 3% 9% 8% Smwht likely 12 11 7 16 9 15 11 19 13 Not too likely 19 19 14 24 19 19 21 17 17 Not likely at all 64 67 73 55 67 60 65 55 61 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very likely 6% 3% 4% 9% 5% 6% 5% 11% 5% Smwht likely 14 13 15 15 14 15 14 12 17 Not too likely 16 16 12 16 15 17 17 8 19 Not likely at all 64 67 68 59 66 62 63 69 58 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very likely 3% 1% 1% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% Smwht likely 13 9 10 17 10 15 14 16 Not too likely 24 24 22 28 24 25 25 18 Not likely at all 59 65 68 48 63 56 58 63 DK/NA - - - 1 - - - - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very likely 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 6% Smwht likely 12 10 11 13 10 15 13 12 Not too likely 20 21 14 28 19 22 21 14 Not likely at all 62 63 70 55 66 58 61 67 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 1 CAND CHOICEQ1 Obama McCain CO Very likely 3% 4% Smwht likely 10 12 Not too likely 19 20 Not likely at all 67 63 DK/NA - - MI Very likely 3% 5% Smwht likely 15 13 Not too likely 13 19 Not likely at all 68 63 DK/NA - 1 MN Very likely 1% 3% Smwht likely 11 11 Not too likely 24 25 Not likely at all 64 60 DK/NA - - WI Very likely 4% 3% Smwht likely 11 11 Not too likely 15 25 Not likely at all 70 59 DK/NA 1 1
17. Which of the following statements do you agree with: John McCain is the candidate who will bring change OR Barack Obama is the candidate who will bring change OR Neither will bring change?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds McCain 22% 48% 3% 15% 21% 23% 24% 15% 22% Obama 46 11 86 43 40 51 41 65 48 Neither 26 35 9 31 33 19 28 16 27 DK/NA 6 6 2 10 6 7 7 4 3 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds McCain 21% 46% 3% 18% 20% 22% 24% 2% 15% Obama 43 11 80 39 38 48 38 80 52 Neither 30 37 15 35 37 24 32 15 27 DK/NA 6 7 2 7 5 7 7 3 6 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds McCain 24% 56% 3% 21% 23% 25% 26% 19% Obama 43 7 83 38 39 45 40 51 Neither 28 33 11 35 32 24 29 28 DK/NA 5 5 4 6 5 5 5 3 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds McCain 22% 57% 2% 17% 24% 20% 24% 18% Obama 45 5 83 39 40 50 42 48 Neither 27 33 13 36 30 24 28 31 DK/NA 6 5 2 9 6 6 6 3
18. Which of the following statements do you agree with: I will be better off a year from now if John McCain is elected president OR I will be better off a year from now if Barack Obama is elected president OR I will not be better off a year from now?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Better off/McCain 29% 60% 4% 22% 32% 25% 32% 18% 20% Better off/Obama 34 4 73 29 30 39 29 55 45 Not be better off 27 25 18 38 28 27 29 17 26 DK/NA 9 11 5 11 10 9 9 10 9 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Better off/McCain 25% 56% 3% 21% 27% 23% 28% 4% 19% Better off/Obama 32 6 64 27 27 37 27 70 37 Not be better off 34 32 28 40 38 30 36 19 34 DK/NA 9 6 5 12 8 10 9 7 10 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Better off/McCain 29% 68% 2% 24% 34% 25% 31% 19% Better off/Obama 31 2 63 27 29 32 28 34 Not be better off 32 24 28 40 30 34 33 40 DK/NA 8 6 6 9 7 9 8 7 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Better off/McCain 27% 68% 1% 25% 32% 23% 30% 20% Better off/Obama 34 1 67 28 29 39 32 37 Not be better off 30 22 29 34 32 27 30 35 DK/NA 9 8 4 12 7 10 9 8
19. Who do you think better understands the economy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds McCain 41% 77% 9% 38% 45% 37% 45% 27% 42% Obama 47 13 83 47 43 50 43 66 51 DK/NA 12 10 8 15 12 12 12 7 7 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds McCain 38% 76% 8% 32% 43% 32% 43% 5% 25% Obama 50 14 83 52 45 54 43 90 58 DK/NA 13 10 9 16 12 13 14 5 17 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds McCain 45% 87% 9% 46% 47% 43% 48% 37% Obama 45 6 83 42 44 46 42 54 DK/NA 10 7 8 12 9 11 10 8 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds McCain 40% 84% 9% 39% 45% 36% 43% 33% Obama 47 8 82 43 45 49 44 54 DK/NA 13 8 8 18 10 15 13 13
20. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds McCain 63% 94% 31% 63% 67% 59% 68% 44% 56% Obama 29 4 58 28 27 31 25 44 35 DK/NA 8 2 11 10 6 10 7 11 9 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds McCain 64% 93% 37% 64% 70% 59% 70% 26% 60% Obama 26 3 53 21 23 28 20 55 31 DK/NA 10 3 10 14 7 13 9 19 9 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds McCain 66% 95% 40% 69% 66% 65% 69% 64% Obama 24 2 46 20 26 21 21 27 DK/NA 11 3 14 11 7 14 10 9 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds McCain 65% 95% 38% 68% 70% 60% 68% 62% Obama 23 1 47 19 21 25 21 27 DK/NA 12 3 15 13 9 15 11 11
21. If John McCain is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Up 28% 10% 48% 25% 23% 33% 24% 44% 33% Down 8 14 3 6 8 8 8 6 10 Same 60 74 42 65 66 53 64 45 56 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 3 6 4 5 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Up 37% 18% 54% 38% 36% 38% 34% 58% 44% Down 6 12 3 6 7 5 6 3 2 Same 51 68 36 51 53 49 55 32 49 DK/NA 5 3 7 5 3 7 5 7 5 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Up 29% 8% 40% 34% 25% 32% 27% 30% Down 6 13 2 5 7 5 6 8 Same 60 76 51 58 66 54 61 58 DK/NA 6 3 7 3 3 8 5 5 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Up 33% 14% 49% 30% 26% 40% 32% 40% Down 5 8 3 6 7 4 6 3 Same 55 73 42 58 62 49 57 53 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 4 8 6 4
22. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Up 48% 79% 20% 43% 54% 43% 53% 27% 39% Down 16 5 33 13 16 17 15 23 25 Same 31 14 40 38 27 34 28 43 33 DK/NA 5 2 6 5 4 6 4 7 4 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Up 47% 74% 19% 52% 54% 41% 52% 16% 41% Down 13 4 22 12 11 14 10 30 15 Same 35 18 53 32 31 38 33 46 38 DK/NA 5 4 6 4 3 6 5 8 5 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Up 52% 84% 21% 54% 56% 49% 54% 53% Down 11 - 21 12 12 10 10 14 Same 31 12 51 30 29 33 31 30 DK/NA 5 4 7 3 3 7 5 4 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Up 48% 74% 26% 47% 54% 42% 49% 45% Down 13 4 22 13 14 13 12 14 Same 32 17 47 31 27 37 33 35 DK/NA 7 6 5 8 5 8 6 5
23. Barack Obama says he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. John McCain says Obama will actually raise taxes overall on most American families. Whom do you believe?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds McCain 42% 80% 6% 37% 45% 38% 47% 21% 37% Obama 41 8 79 37 35 46 37 54 47 DK/NA 18 12 14 26 19 16 16 25 16 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds McCain 41% 81% 9% 38% 46% 36% 46% 8% 34% Obama 39 7 76 38 36 42 33 80 44 DK/NA 20 12 15 25 18 22 21 12 22 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds McCain 42% 87% 7% 40% 43% 41% 44% 40% Obama 38 4 74 36 37 39 36 42 DK/NA 20 10 19 23 20 20 20 17 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds McCain 41% 82% 11% 40% 47% 35% 43% 37% Obama 41 5 75 36 37 45 39 43 DK/NA 18 13 15 24 17 20 18 20
24. Do you think the news media has treated Sarah Palin fairly or unfairly?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Fairly 48% 22% 73% 50% 47% 49% 45% 58% 58% Unfairly 45 73 17 42 48 42 48 34 34 DK/NA 8 4 10 8 6 9 7 7 8 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Fairly 45% 23% 70% 43% 46% 44% 43% 62% 58% Unfairly 45 68 22 46 45 45 47 23 36 DK/NA 10 8 8 11 9 11 10 15 7 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Fairly 51% 24% 76% 53% 52% 51% 50% 57% Unfairly 41 71 18 39 42 41 43 36 DK/NA 7 5 6 8 6 9 8 7 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Fairly 44% 27% 62% 41% 45% 44% 44% 49% Unfairly 46 68 28 45 47 45 46 42 DK/NA 10 4 10 14 8 11 10 10
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Approve 24% 55% 3% 14% 25% 23% 27% 13% 22% Disapprove 71 37 95 82 71 71 68 84 77 DK/NA 5 8 2 4 4 6 5 3 - Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 25% 57% 2% 20% 26% 25% 28% 7% 18% Disapprove 71 36 98 75 71 70 67 93 79 DK/NA 4 7 - 5 3 5 5 - 3 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Approve 24% 59% 2% 17% 24% 25% 26% 20% Disapprove 71 35 98 77 72 70 70 77 DK/NA 5 7 - 6 4 5 5 3 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Approve 26% 59% 3% 24% 27% 24% 27% 18% Disapprove 69 32 96 70 67 71 67 79 DK/NA 5 9 1 7 6 5 6 3
26. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Very satisfied 2% 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% Smwht satisfied 17 36 6 11 19 15 18 20 14 Smwht dissatisfied 31 38 22 33 33 29 33 22 29 Very dissatisfied 49 21 71 55 45 52 46 56 52 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very satisfied 1% 3% - 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% Smwht satisfied 14 29 3 13 15 13 15 7 10 Smwht dissatisfied 29 42 18 27 33 26 31 20 28 Very dissatisfied 54 24 79 57 49 59 51 70 60 DK/NA 1 2 - 2 1 2 1 - 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very satisfied 1% 3% - - 2% 1% 1% - Smwht satisfied 16 36 2 14 18 15 17 13 Smwht dissatisfied 35 45 26 35 34 35 36 34 Very dissatisfied 47 14 72 50 46 48 45 53 DK/NA 1 1 - - - 1 1 - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Very satisfied 1% 2% - 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% Smwht satisfied 17 36 5 16 20 15 19 11 Smwht dissatisfied 32 47 23 29 32 32 33 29 Very dissatisfied 49 14 71 53 46 52 48 58 DK/NA - - - - - - - -
27. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Right thing 37% 73% 7% 30% 40% 35% 41% 24% 34% Wrong thing 58 22 91 64 57 60 54 72 65 DK/NA 4 5 1 6 3 5 5 4 2 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Right thing 37% 71% 6% 35% 41% 33% 42% 2% 29% Wrong thing 57 21 92 59 55 59 51 95 68 DK/NA 6 8 2 6 4 8 7 4 3 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Right thing 36% 72% 6% 33% 35% 36% 38% 31% Wrong thing 59 21 91 59 61 57 56 64 DK/NA 6 7 2 7 5 7 6 5 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Right thing 38% 76% 14% 37% 42% 35% 41% 33% Wrong thing 56 16 84 57 53 59 53 63 DK/NA 6 8 3 5 6 6 6 4
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq? A) Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR B) Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal.
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 39% 15% 65% 40% 37% 41% 35% 59% 44% B) Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 55 82 28 53 58 52 60 33 49 DK/NA 6 3 6 7 5 6 5 8 7 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 42% 15% 66% 43% 37% 46% 38% 70% 46% B) Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 53 82 28 53 59 47 57 24 49 DK/NA 5 4 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 40% 14% 67% 37% 35% 44% 38% 44% B) Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 56 84 29 59 62 51 57 51 DK/NA 4 2 4 4 3 5 5 5 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 41% 17% 61% 37% 34% 47% 39% 43% B) Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 55 79 35 59 62 48 57 52 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 5
29. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds Getting ahead 15% 22% 11% 13% 17% 14% 15% 20% 21% Falling behind 24 15 33 25 24 24 24 22 31 Holding steady 60 63 54 62 59 61 60 57 47 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Getting ahead 10% 11% 7% 12% 14% 7% 10% 12% 10% Falling behind 28 21 34 31 28 29 27 30 29 Holding steady 60 68 58 55 57 63 62 56 61 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Getting ahead 11% 16% 6% 10% 15% 8% 11% 13% Falling behind 25 16 36 24 22 28 24 25 Holding steady 64 68 58 65 63 64 64 61 DK/NA - - - - - - - - Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds Getting ahead 12% 17% 10% 10% 16% 9% 12% 10% Falling behind 24 12 32 22 24 25 25 21 Holding steady 63 70 57 67 60 65 63 69 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 -
30. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His HsHlds A) Retirement funds 16% 17% 15% 17% 15% 17% 18% 10% 17% B) Real estate vals 14 17 12 13 16 13 14 12 8 C) Health care cost 22 17 31 19 19 24 22 20 25 D) Gasoline prices 26 32 16 27 28 23 25 32 28 E) Food prices 17 12 19 20 15 18 15 25 20 DK/NA 5 5 6 4 6 5 6 2 3 Union MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A) Retirement funds 16% 14% 16% 18% 15% 17% 17% 12% 18% B) Real estate vals 16 22 15 12 16 15 16 17 13 C) Health care cost 19 18 21 20 18 21 19 26 21 D) Gasoline prices 34 34 31 35 38 31 35 28 34 E) Food prices 10 6 13 11 9 11 9 11 10 DK/NA 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 6 5 Union MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds A) Retirement funds 17% 14% 18% 19% 20% 15% 17% 20% B) Real estate vals 12 16 11 10 12 12 12 9 C) Health care cost 23 16 28 24 22 24 24 21 D) Gasoline prices 29 36 23 30 31 28 29 35 E) Food prices 13 14 15 11 10 16 13 11 DK/NA 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 3 Union WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds A) Retirement funds 16% 16% 15% 16% 16% 16% 16% 20% B) Real estate vals 9 11 9 8 10 8 8 5 C) Health care cost 22 17 25 25 22 23 24 27 D) Gasoline prices 35 39 35 31 36 34 34 34 E) Food prices 13 13 12 14 11 15 13 12 DK/NA 5 5 4 6 5 5 5 3