Presidential Swing States (CO, MI, MN & WI) Poll * October 14, 2008 * Obama Surges In Four Battlegro - Quinnipiac University

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October 14, 2008 - Obama Surges In Four Battleground States, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds --- COLORADO: Obama 52 - McCain 43 pre-debate / Obama 52 - McCain 43 post debate MICHIGAN: Obama 55 - McCain 37 pre-debate / Obama 54 - McCain 38 post debate MINNESOTA: Obama 51 - McCain 43 pre-debate / Obama 51 - McCain 40 post debate WISCONSIN: Obama 51 - McCain 43 pre-debate / Obama 54 - McCain 37 post debate

Word format Boosted by the economic crisis and a strong debate performance, Democrat Barack Obama is over the 50 percent mark in the key battleground states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and for the first time leads or ties Republican John McCain among white voters in all four states, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.
By wide margins, voters in each state say Sen. Obama understands the economy better than Sen. McCain. By bigger margins, voters say McCain better understands foreign policy.
While voters in each state say Obama won last week's debate, there was little post debate movement except in Wisconsin. Obama also has caught or passed McCain among men voters in all four states for the first time. Overall results show:
Colorado: Obama leads 52 - 43 percent pre-debate and 52 - 43 percent post debate; Michigan: Obama is up 55 - 37 percent pre debate and 54 - 38 percent post debate; Minnesota: Obama leads 51 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 40 percent post debate; Wisconsin: Obama leads 51 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 37 percent post debate.
"Sen. Obama's leads in these four battleground states are as large as they have been the entire campaign. Those margins may be insurmountable barring a reversal that has never been seen before in the modern era in which polling monitors public opinion throughout the campaign," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The only possible bright spot for Sen. McCain - and you would need Mary Poppins to find it in these numbers - is that he is holding roughly the same portion of the Republican vote. But McCain's support among independent voters, a group he says are key to winning the White House, has collapsed," Brown added.
"Any realistic chance of McCain coming from behind depends on scoring a knockout in this week's last debate. But given that he has been judged by the electorate to have lost both of the previous face-offs, that would seem to be a very tall order."
"Obama's surge comes from voters saying by wide margins that he better understands the economy. Moreover, about that many more say McCain has not shown effective leadership on the economy than has done so."
President Bush's approval ratings are:
27 - 68 percent in Colorado; 23 - 69 percent in Michigan; 21 - 73 percent in Minnesota; 21 - 73 percent in Wisconsin.
Colorado
Post debate, Obama leads 54 - 38 percent among Colorado women voters, and inches ahead of McCain 49 - 47 percent among men. White voters go 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Independent voters back the Democrat 51 - 40 percent.
Voters say 82 - 11 that Democratic running mate Sen. Joe Biden is qualified to be Vice President. Voters say 51 - 44 that Republican Gov. Sarah Palin is not qualified. Women voters say 52 - 42 percent that she is not qualified.
The economy is the most important issue in the election, 54 percent of Colorado voters say. Obama better understands the economy, voters say 51 - 39 percent, while McCain better understands foreign policy, voters say 58 - 34 percent.
Voters who watched the October 7 debate say 56 - 24 percent that Obama did a better job.
In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 54 - 40 percent, compared to 48 - 40 percent September 23.
Colorado voters support 63 - 21 percent a state constitutional amendment outlawing discrimination or preferential treatment in public employment, contracting or education.
"They key to winning elections in Colorado is independent voters and Sen. Obama has blown open the race there with his 11-point lead among them. These same voters say 3-1 that the Democrat won the last debate, which drives one more nail into McCain's coffin," Brown said.
Michigan
Post debate, Michigan women voters back Obama 60 - 32 percent, and men back Obama 48 - 44 percent. White voters back Obama 48 - 43 percent and independent voters go with the Democrat 52 - 35 percent.
Sen. Biden is qualified to be Vice President, voters say 76 - 12 percent, while Gov. Palin is not qualified, voters say 47 - 41 percent, including 50 - 34 percent among women.
The economy is the most important issue, 64 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 52 - 35 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 58 - 31 percent.
Obama did a better job in the debate, voters who watched the debate say 56 - 22 percent.
"McCain obviously knew what he was doing when he decided to stop campaigning in the state. Of course, his public announcement about it didn't help his numbers, but it's obvious he was way behind even before that decision was made. McCain's strategy in Michigan was always tied to winning the independent vote and Obama is killing him there," Brown said.
Minnesota
Post debate, Obama leads McCain 57 - 34 percent with women, while men tie 46 - 46 percent. White voters back Obama 49 - 43 percent and independent voters go with the Democrat 51 - 38 percent.
Biden is qualified to be Vice President, voters say 80 - 10 percent, but Palin is not qualified, voters say 47 - 43 percent, including 49 - 40 percent among women.
The economy is the biggest issue, 58 percent of voters say. Voters say 49 - 34 percent that Obama better understands the economy, and say 58 - 30 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.
Minnesota voters who watched last week's debate say 57 - 22 percent that Obama did a better job.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Al Franken has 38 percent to Republican Sen. Norm Coleman's 36 percent, with 18 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.
"Sen. Obama's debate performance pushed him into a double-digit lead and made him competitive - but not yet the leader - among blue collar workers, white men and Catholics. Obama may be exhibiting some coattail power as Democratic challenger Al Franken now has a narrow two-point lead over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Wisconsin
Post debate, Obama leads 59 - 33 percent among Wisconsin women voters and 49 - 41 percent among men. He leads McCain 52 - 39 among white voters and 52 - 36 percent among independent voters.
Biden is qualified to be Vice President, voters say 74 - 13 percent, while Palin is not qualified, voters say 47 - 43 percent, including 49 - 40 percent among women.
The economy is the biggest issue, 55 percent say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 53 - 32 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 57 - 32 percent.
Obama did a better job on the debate, voters who watched say 58 - 21 percent.
"Even white men favor Barack Obama in Wisconsin where his debate performance and the crumbling economy sparked a doubling of his lead over John McCain. It is one of the few battleground states where Obama has a substantial lead among blue collar voters and Catholics as well as white men and women," Richards said.
From October 3 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
997 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent; 1,122 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent; 1,076 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent; 1,081 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
From October 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,088 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent; 1,043 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent; 1,019 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent; 1,201 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.
These surveys of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... PreDeb POST DEBATE ................................... IMPQ8 COLORADO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Econ Obama 52% 52% 6% 93% 51% 49% 54% 57% McCain 43 43 89 4 40 47 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 5 3 3 6 3 7 5 WHITE.......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 48% 41% 57% 47% 48% 18% 41% McCain 47 53 40 50 44 78 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 5 3 3 6 4 7
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
LIKELY VOTERS................................. Oct 14 Oct 14 Sep 23 Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 26 COLORADO 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 2008 Obama 52 52 49 46 44 49 McCain 43 43 45 47 46 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 5 5 7 5
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.... PreDeb POST DEBATE......... CANDCHOICE Q1 CO Tot Tot Obama McCain Made up 89% 87% 89% 85% Might change 10 11 10 13 DK/NA 1 2 1 2
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... PreDeb POST DEBATE ................................... IMPQ8 MICHIGAN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Econ Obama 55% 54% 6% 93% 52% 48% 60% 60% McCain 37 38 88 3 35 44 32 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 7 3 4 13 6 8 7 WHITE.......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 48% 46% 55% 40% 55% 32% 55% McCain 43 45 39 51 36 58 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 5 6 8 7 8
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Oct 14 Sep 23 Jul 24 Jun 26 MICHIGAN 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 Obama 54 55 48 46 48 McCain 38 37 44 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 7 7 7 9 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.... PreDeb POST DEBATE......... CANDCHOICE Q1 MI Tot Tot Obama McCain Made up 88% 86% 86% 86% Might change 11 12 12 13 DK/NA 1 1 2 1
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... PreDeb POST DEBATE ................................... IMPQ8 MINNESOTA Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Econ Obama 51% 51% 8% 90% 51% 46% 57% 57% McCain 43 40 89 4 38 46 34 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 7 2 4 7 5 8 6 WHITE.......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 49% 41% 65% 43% 55% 29% 46% McCain 43 49 32 49 38 65 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 3 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 2 5 7 5 7
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Oct 14 Sep 23 Jul 24 Jun 26 MINNESOTA 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 Obama 51 51 47 46 54 McCain 40 43 45 44 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 6 8 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.... PreDeb POST DEBATE......... CANDCHOICE Q1 MN Tot Tot Obama McCain Made up 86% 85% 86% 84% Might change 14 13 13 15 DK/NA 1 1 1 2
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... PreDeb POST DEBATE ................................... IMPQ8 WISCONSIN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Econ Obama 51% 54% 5% 92% 52% 49% 59% 61% McCain 43 37 93 3 36 41 33 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 3 4 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 7 2 3 9 6 7 7 WHITE.......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 52% 50% 58% 47% 57% 38% 51% McCain 39 40 38 43 36 57 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 4 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 4 7 7 5 6
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 14 Oct 14 Sep 23 Jul 24 Jun 26 WISCONSIN 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008 Obama 54 51 49 50 52 McCain 37 43 42 39 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 7 9 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.... PreDeb POST DEBATE......... CANDCHOICE Q1 WI Tot Tot Obama McCain Made up 85% 85% 84% 86% Might change 14 14 14 13 DK/NA 1 2 2 1
2a. (Colorado only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat and Bob Schaffer the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q2a) As of today, do you lean more toward Udall or Schaffer? This table includes "Leaners".
SENATE LIKELY VOTERS.............................. PreDeb POST DEBATE ............................. CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Udall 48% 54% 11% 91% 55% 51% 57% Schaffer 43 40 85 3 37 43 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 6 3 5 7 6 6
2a. (Minnesota only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Al Franken the Democrat, Norm Coleman the Republican, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2a) As of today, do you lean more toward Franken, Coleman, or Barkley? This table includes "Leaners".
SENATE LIKELY VOTERS......................... PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Franken 39% 38% 4% 74% 32% 35% 41% Coleman 37 36 81 6 32 39 34 Barkley 17 18 11 12 29 18 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 3 9 7 7 8
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 57% 58% 18% 93% 60% 56% 60% Unfavorable 35 35 76 3 32 38 32 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 4 3 6 4 5 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 60% 60% 21% 93% 57% 55% 64% Unfavorable 29 30 70 4 27 34 27 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 7 4 14 9 7 REFUSED 3 2 2 - 3 2 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 59% 59% 25% 91% 57% 53% 65% Unfavorable 31 29 65 4 26 32 25 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 8 4 12 10 7 REFUSED 2 4 2 1 5 5 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 56% 59% 19% 91% 55% 53% 63% Unfavorable 32 31 73 4 30 37 25 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 7 3 12 7 9 REFUSED 3 3 1 2 3 2 3
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 54% 51% 87% 19% 51% 54% 48% Unfavorable 38 41 7 73 39 40 42 Hvn't hrd enough 4 6 4 6 8 5 7 REFUSED 4 2 1 3 3 2 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 47% 51% 89% 21% 53% 59% 44% Unfavorable 44 40 5 72 35 34 44 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 4 6 9 5 8 REFUSED 3 2 1 1 3 1 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 53% 91% 22% 56% 56% 50% Unfavorable 38 38 6 69 34 35 40 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 2 6 5 5 6 REFUSED 4 4 1 2 5 4 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 47% 92% 15% 51% 54% 41% Unfavorable 37 42 5 75 37 37 46 Hvn't hrd enough 8 7 2 7 8 6 8 REFUSED 4 4 2 3 4 3 4
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 52% 54% 23% 82% 53% 55% 52% Unfavorable 26 25 54 3 22 28 23 Hvn't hrd enough 19 19 20 14 23 15 23 REFUSED 3 2 4 1 2 2 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 47% 17% 74% 45% 44% 49% Unfavorable 22 23 53 3 19 30 16 Hvn't hrd enough 26 29 29 22 34 24 33 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 50% 24% 75% 49% 47% 53% Unfavorable 22 21 40 2 24 26 15 Hvn't hrd enough 26 27 34 23 24 24 31 REFUSED 2 2 2 - 2 3 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 44% 46% 16% 69% 46% 45% 47% Unfavorable 27 24 55 3 24 30 18 Hvn't hrd enough 27 28 28 27 26 23 34 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 3 3 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 39% 83% 6% 35% 42% 37% Unfavorable 42 47 6 82 47 46 48 Hvn't hrd enough 12 13 10 11 16 11 14 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 37% 82% 9% 32% 44% 30% Unfavorable 39 39 6 70 35 34 43 Hvn't hrd enough 23 23 11 21 32 21 25 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 42% 37% 80% 8% 33% 39% 36% Unfavorable 41 41 9 74 39 39 44 Hvn't hrd enough 16 19 10 17 26 20 18 REFUSED 1 3 1 2 2 3 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 37% 82% 11% 34% 39% 37% Unfavorable 37 40 3 68 41 37 43 Hvn't hrd enough 20 20 13 19 22 23 17 REFUSED 1 3 1 2 3 2 3
6. Do you think Joe Biden is qualified to be Vice President?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 81% 82% 73% 93% 81% 86% 79% No 11 11 21 1 12 11 12 DK/NA 8 6 6 6 7 3 9 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 77% 76% 59% 90% 78% 80% 72% No 11 12 26 3 10 12 12 DK/NA 12 12 14 7 12 8 15 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 79% 80% 69% 90% 83% 82% 78% No 10 10 18 4 7 10 9 DK/NA 12 11 14 6 10 8 13 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 76% 74% 62% 85% 75% 76% 72% No 12 13 23 4 12 15 10 DK/NA 12 14 15 11 13 9 17
7. Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be Vice President?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 46% 44% 85% 9% 44% 46% 42% No 47 51 12 87 50 50 52 DK/NA 7 5 3 4 6 4 5 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 41% 41% 82% 13% 40% 50% 34% No 49 47 10 77 47 44 50 DK/NA 11 11 8 10 14 7 16 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 43% 43% 84% 13% 39% 45% 40% No 48 47 10 81 46 45 49 DK/NA 9 10 6 6 15 10 11 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 43% 85% 17% 41% 47% 40% No 44 47 9 74 47 44 49 DK/NA 11 10 7 9 12 9 12
8. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 8% 8% 21% 0% 5% 8% 8% The war in Iraq 12 10 9 13 8 10 10 The economy 49 54 46 58 59 54 54 Illegal immigration 5 3 4 3 2 2 4 Energy policy 9 9 9 8 9 11 7 Health care 10 9 5 12 8 8 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 5 4 6 2 5 5 4 DK/NA 4 3 1 4 4 2 5 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 7% 6% 12% 1% 7% 6% 6% The war in Iraq 8 8 8 12 6 10 6 The economy 61 64 53 68 66 62 65 Illegal immigration 1 1 2 - 2 2 1 Energy policy 6 6 7 3 6 6 5 Health care 8 8 5 12 7 5 11 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 4 8 2 3 3 4 DK/NA 4 4 6 2 4 5 3 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 5% 5% 13% - 5% 6% 5% The war in Iraq 10 11 11 14 7 10 12 The economy 58 58 51 66 57 59 58 Illegal immigration 4 3 3 1 5 4 1 Energy policy 6 7 9 5 7 9 6 Health care 10 8 4 11 10 5 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 4 6 2 4 5 4 DK/NA 3 2 3 1 4 3 2 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Terrorism 7% 7% 16% 1% 6% 8% 6% The war in Iraq 7 9 8 9 12 10 9 The economy 58 55 54 59 52 54 55 Illegal immigration 3 4 3 2 6 5 3 Energy policy 7 5 4 3 9 8 3 Health care 11 13 5 22 10 8 18 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 4 6 2 3 4 3 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 2 2 3
9. (Post Debate) Did you watch the second televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain that was on Tuesday night?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 75% 72% 76% 77% 77% 73% No 24 28 24 23 22 26 DK/NA - - - - - - POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 74% 72% 75% 77% 77% 72% No 26 28 25 23 23 28 DK/NA - - - - - - POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 73% 72% 75% 75% 74% 73% No 26 28 24 24 26 26 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 71% 67% 76% 76% 72% 71% No 28 32 24 24 28 29 DK/NA - - - - - -
10. (Post Debate) Did this debate change how you will vote?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... POST DEBATE ............................................ CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Yes 3% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3% No 86 85 89 85 87 86 96 DK/NA 11 14 9 11 11 11 1 POST DEBATE ............................................ MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Yes 2% - 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% No 88 92 88 87 89 87 96 DK/NA 10 7 9 10 8 10 1 POST DEBATE ............................................ MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Yes 3% 5% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% No 87 84 89 89 88 85 94 DK/NA 10 11 8 9 9 11 1 POST DEBATE ............................................ WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Yes 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% No 84 83 86 86 84 84 95 DK/NA 13 13 10 11 13 13 -
11. (Post Debate) Who do you think did a better job in the debate - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... POST DEBATE ............................................ CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Obama 45% 11% 76% 48% 45% 46% 56% McCain 20 42 3 16 20 20 24 DK/NA 35 47 21 37 36 34 20 POST DEBATE ............................................ MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Obama 46% 14% 70% 44% 40% 50% 56% McCain 18 43 2 16 21 15 22 DK/NA 37 44 29 40 39 35 22 POST DEBATE ............................................ MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Obama 46% 21% 72% 42% 46% 47% 57% McCain 18 38 2 19 20 15 22 DK/NA 36 41 26 39 34 38 21 POST DEBATE ............................................ WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Watched Debate Obama 45% 12% 70% 46% 43% 47% 58% McCain 16 44 2 14 18 15 21 DK/NA 38 44 28 40 39 38 21
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 26% 27% 63% 3% 19% 26% 28% Disapprove 67 68 31 95 75 70 66 DK/NA 6 4 6 1 6 3 5 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 22% 23% 59% 1% 18% 26% 21% Disapprove 71 69 32 96 72 67 71 DK/NA 7 7 10 3 10 7 8 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 24% 21% 48% 3% 18% 22% 20% Disapprove 69 73 41 96 75 72 73 DK/NA 7 6 11 1 8 6 7 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 27% 21% 56% 1% 15% 24% 18% Disapprove 69 73 34 97 78 70 76 DK/NA 4 6 9 2 7 6 6
13. In the nation as a whole, do you think economic conditions will get better or get worse in the next year?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 39% 48% 59% 41% 44% 52% 43% Get worse 47 41 31 44 48 38 44 STAY THE SAME(VOL) 4 3 2 5 2 4 3 DK/NA 10 8 8 9 6 6 11 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 43% 49% 59% 46% 46% 50% 48% Get worse 44 39 30 40 45 40 39 STAY THE SAME(VOL) 5 3 4 5 2 3 4 DK/NA 8 8 8 9 7 6 9 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 42% 49% 54% 45% 50% 53% 44% Get worse 45 40 33 46 40 37 43 STAY THE SAME(VOL) 5 3 2 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 8 8 11 6 7 7 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 46% 52% 63% 47% 51% 57% 47% Get worse 40 36 26 39 40 31 41 STAY THE SAME(VOL) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DK/NA 11 9 8 11 6 9 9
14. In your state, do you think economic conditions will get better or worse in the next year?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 46% 54% 62% 48% 52% 57% 50% Get worse 42 35 26 39 39 34 36 STAY THE SAME(VOL) 6 4 5 5 3 2 6 DK/NA 7 7 7 8 6 6 8 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 31% 35% 37% 42% 29% 32% 37% Get worse 60 57 51 51 64 60 54 STAY THE SAME(VOL) 5 4 6 3 3 4 3 DK/NA 5 5 6 4 4 4 5 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 46% 48% 53% 47% 46% 51% 45% Get worse 42 39 34 42 40 35 42 STAY THE SAME(VOL) 7 6 4 5 8 7 4 DK/NA 5 7 9 5 7 6 8 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 44% 47% 57% 45% 44% 51% 43% Get worse 41 41 31 42 45 38 43 STAY THE SAME(VOL) 6 4 4 2 5 5 3 DK/NA 9 9 7 11 6 6 11
15. Thinking about your own personal financial situation, do you think you will be better or worse off economically in the next year?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better off 46% 47% 58% 42% 46% 50% 44% Worse off 32 32 22 36 36 33 30 SAME (VOL) 15 15 14 17 13 13 18 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 5 3 8 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better off 41% 44% 52% 44% 39% 48% 41% Worse off 33 32 24 31 36 29 34 SAME (VOL) 18 18 18 16 21 18 18 DK/NA 7 6 5 10 3 5 7 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better off 43% 46% 52% 43% 43% 52% 40% Worse off 33 32 28 35 33 29 36 SAME (VOL) 18 16 14 17 19 16 17 DK/NA 5 6 6 5 4 4 8 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better off 45% 47% 62% 44% 42% 54% 41% Worse off 32 32 19 38 36 25 38 SAME (VOL) 16 14 12 12 17 14 14 DK/NA 7 7 8 6 5 7 7
16. Who do you think better understands the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 51% 51% 8% 89% 52% 49% 53% McCain 36 39 83 4 35 43 34 DK/NA 13 11 10 7 13 9 13 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 57% 52% 13% 85% 49% 47% 56% McCain 31 35 77 6 31 40 31 DK/NA 12 13 10 8 20 14 13 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 47% 49% 11% 83% 48% 45% 53% McCain 38 34 70 7 32 37 31 DK/NA 15 17 19 10 19 18 16 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 50% 53% 9% 84% 54% 49% 57% McCain 38 32 80 4 30 37 28 DK/NA 12 15 11 12 16 14 15
17. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 33% 34% 6% 65% 29% 33% 35% McCain 61 58 92 24 61 62 54 DK/NA 7 8 2 11 10 5 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 30% 31% 3% 57% 25% 27% 34% McCain 59 58 93 29 61 65 51 DK/NA 11 11 4 13 15 8 15 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 28% 30% 2% 56% 28% 29% 31% McCain 59 58 96 28 60 61 56 DK/NA 13 11 2 16 12 10 13 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 29% 32% 1% 60% 25% 27% 36% McCain 60 57 98 25 63 63 52 DK/NA 11 11 1 15 11 10 13
18. Do you think Barack Obama has shown effective leadership in dealing with the financial crisis facing the nation?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 48% 22% 74% 45% 48% 48% No 46 44 71 17 45 47 41 DK/NA 9 8 7 9 10 5 12 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 48% 23% 74% 44% 44% 52% No 39 40 66 19 42 48 34 DK/NA 13 12 11 7 14 9 14 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 44% 46% 20% 70% 46% 41% 50% No 41 42 67 20 42 49 34 DK/NA 14 12 13 10 12 10 15 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 46% 44% 18% 72% 37% 37% 50% No 43 44 73 16 53 54 36 DK/NA 11 12 9 12 10 10 14
19. Do you think John McCain has shown effective leadership in dealing with the financial crisis facing the nation?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 38% 39% 68% 15% 37% 39% 39% No 54 54 25 79 55 57 51 DK/NA 8 7 7 6 8 5 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 32% 34% 63% 15% 31% 34% 33% No 59 57 23 79 59 59 54 DK/NA 10 10 13 5 10 6 13 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 40% 36% 60% 19% 36% 35% 36% No 49 51 30 70 50 53 50 DK/NA 12 13 10 11 14 12 14 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 40% 34% 67% 17% 31% 34% 34% No 49 54 23 72 60 57 51 DK/NA 11 12 10 11 9 9 15
20. When it comes to the current problems in the financial markets, do you think the government is doing too much to help rescue financial firms, too little, or about the right amount?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too much 53% 54% 61% 42% 61% 57% 51% Too little 12 11 6 19 7 9 12 About right 26 28 27 29 27 29 27 DK/NA 8 7 6 9 5 5 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too much 54% 48% 52% 41% 53% 47% 50% Too little 13 17 10 26 13 17 16 About right 24 26 31 24 25 29 23 DK/NA 8 9 8 9 10 7 11 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too much 54% 55% 60% 46% 60% 60% 49% Too little 10 11 7 14 11 10 13 About right 26 26 27 28 22 23 28 DK/NA 10 8 6 11 7 7 10 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too much 53% 49% 56% 42% 52% 50% 48% Too little 13 14 10 18 11 11 16 About right 26 26 28 30 22 28 24 DK/NA 8 11 7 10 15 11 12
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the economic plan passed by Congress to deal with the nation's economic crisis?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 32% 34% 33% 37% 32% 36% 32% Disapprove 53 54 58 48 57 57 52 DK/NA 15 12 10 15 11 8 17 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 32% 34% 33% 38% 33% 36% 32% Disapprove 54 52 52 46 55 53 51 DK/NA 14 15 14 16 12 11 18 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... MN Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 31% 35% 35% 41% 30% 30% 40% Disapprove 53 51 53 44 56 57 45 DK/NA 16 14 12 15 14 13 15 PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... WI Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 32% 36% 41% 40% 33% 35% 37% Disapprove 54 51 50 46 56 55 48 DK/NA 15 12 9 14 11 10 14
22. (Colorado only) As you may know, there is a proposed state constitutional amendment on the November ballot. It says that the state shall not discriminate against or grant preferential treatment to any group or individual on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public contracting, or public education. Do you think that you will vote for or against this state constitutional amendment?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. PreDeb POST DEBATE .......................... CO Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom For 62% 63% 63% 57% 69% 63% 62% Against 19 21 20 26 16 22 20 DK/NA 19 16 17 17 15 15 18