September 14, 2010 - Blumenthal Up Just 6 Points In Connecticut Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Much McMahon Support Is Anti-Blumenthal

Word format

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, leads Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon 51 - 45 percent among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Another 3 percent are undecided and 11 percent of those who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University's first general election likely voter survey in Connecticut in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

In today's survey, conducted by telephone with live interviewers, Blumenthal leads 87 - 10 percent among Democrats and gets 47 percent of independent voters to McMahon's 46 percent. McMahon leads 91 - 9 percent among Republicans. Women back Blumenthal 56 - 41 percent, while men split 47 - 48 percent.

Among those backing McMahon, 42 percent say their vote is mainly against Blumenthal, while 53 percent say they mainly are pro-McMahon. Blumenthal backers are 22 percent anti- McMahon and 73 percent pro-Blumenthal.

"This is now a 6 point race among likely voters. With seven weeks to go and lots of money to be spent, anything can happen," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"For Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, an elected official with a 70 percent approval rating, this race is surprisingly close. It is not that voters are wild about McMahon; her favorability rating is tepid. And many of her supporters are more anti-Blumenthal."

"The question is whether Linda McMahon can ride the anti-establishment, anti-Democratic wave to victory in blue Connecticut, a state that hasn't voted for a Republican for Senator since Lowell Weicker in 1982," Dr. Schwartz added.

"President Barack Obama appears to be a drag on Blumenthal, even in Connecticut, where the President's job approval rating is a negative 45 - 52 percent.

"McMahon would be Connecticut's first female Senator. But it is Blumenthal's advantage among women that is making the difference in the race. While men have a mixed opinion of both candidates, women are divided on McMahon but love Blumenthal by a more than 2-1 margin. It may be because women are less likely than men to be turned off by Blumenthal's Vietnam misstatements, and more likely to be turned off by McMahon's wrestling background."

Only 45 percent of Connecticut likely voters say Blumenthal can bring needed change to Washington, with 48 percent saying he can't bring change. But McMahon gets exactly the same numbers. Blumenthal leads McMahon on most other measures in the survey, as voters say:
  • 72 - 25 percent that Blumenthal has the right experience to be a U.S Senator;
  • 56 - 39 percent that McMahon does not have the right experience;
  • 57 - 36 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 58 - 29 percent that she is honest and trustworthy;
  • 55 - 38 percent that Blumenthal shares their values;
  • 49 - 42 percent that McMahon shares their values.
Connecticut voters say 37 - 1 percent that Blumenthal's statements about his Vietnam War service make them less likely to vote for him, as 60 percent say they don't make a difference.

McMahon's experience as CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment leaves voters 33 - 20 percent less likely to vote for her, while 47 percent say it doesn't make a difference.

By a 55 - 39 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal, compared to a 45 - 41 percent favorability for McMahon.

The economy and jobs are the main issues in deciding how they will vote, 55 percent of voters say, followed by 11 percent who list health care, 10 percent who cite the federal deficit and 6 percent who say education. Only 4 percent list illegal immigration and 2 percent say Afghanistan.

From September 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 875 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q6) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? This table includes Leaners.
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Blumenthal           51%     9%    87%    47%    47%    56%
McMahon              45     91     10     46     48     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      -      2      5      3      3
 
 
6a. (If express choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY.................
                            CAND CHOICE Q6..
                     Tot    RB     LM
 
Made up              89%    90%    88%
Might change         11     10     12
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
7. (If voting for Blumenthal) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Blumenthal or against McMahon? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY BLUMENTHAL VOTERS Q6...........
                     Tot    Rep*   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
For Blumenthal       73%           79%    67%    73%    73%
Against McMahon      22            18     25     20     23
DK/NA                 5             3      8      7      4
 
 
8. (If voting for McMahon) Is your vote for Senator mainly for McMahon or against Blumenthal? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY McMAHON VOTERS Q6..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem*   Ind    Men    Wom
 
For McMahon          53%    57%           50%    46%    61%
Against Blumenthal   42     39            44     48     33
DK/NA                 6      3             5      6      6
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            55%    15%   86%     54%    48%    64%
Unfavorable          39     81     9      38     47     30
Hvn't hrd enough      4      3     4       6      5      4
REFUSED               1      1     1       2      1      2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            45%    80%    18%    47%    46%    45%
Unfavorable          41     10     65     39     39     43
Hvn't hrd enough     13     10     16     14     15     11
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      -      1
 
 
11. Which one of these issues matter most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator - Illegal immigration, the war in Afghanistan, the issue of terrorism, the economy and jobs, the federal budget deficit, education, health care or energy and environmental policies?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Ill immmigration      4%     8%     -      4%     5%     3%
Afghanistan           2      -      2      3      2      2
Terrorism             1      2      1      1      1      1
Economy and jobs     55     52     59     55     55     56
Fed deficit          10     18      2     12     11      9
Education             6      1     10      7      7      6
Health care          11     12     11      9      9     13
Energy and envir      3      1      5      4      4      3
DK/NA                 7      7     10      5      7      8
 
 
12. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator - The candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Washington or shares your values?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Trustworthy          25%    24%    21%    30%    26%    24%
Experience           22      4     33     25     19     26
Change               25     40     15     24     24     26
Shares values        25     28     29     19     28     21
DK/NA                 3      5      2      2      3      3
 
 
13. Do you think Richard Blumenthal has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  72%    48%    93%    70%    66%    79%
No                   25     48      5     27     31     19
DK/NA                 3      4      2      3      3      3
 
 
14. Would you say that Richard Blumenthal is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  57%    23%    85%    55%    51%    63%
No                   36     70     10     36     42     28
DK/NA                 8      7      6      9      7      8
 
 
15. Would you say that Richard Blumenthal shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  55%    18%    86%    52%    47%    63%
No                   38     76      9     38     46     28
DK/NA                 7      6      6     10      7      8
 
 
16. Do you think Richard Blumenthal can bring about needed change to Washington or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  45%    12%    74%    42%    35%    57%
No                   48     83     19     51     58     37
DK/NA                 6      5      7      6      7      6
 
 
17. Do you think Linda McMahon has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  39%    72%    15%    38%    41%    37%
No                   56     25     80     55     56     56
DK/NA                 5      4      5      6      3      7
 
 
18. Would you say that Linda McMahon is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  58%    83%    37%    60%    58%    58%
No                   29      9     43     29     29     29
DK/NA                13      9     19     11     13     13
 
 
19. Would you say that Linda McMahon shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  49%    86%    22%    49%    51%    46%
No                   42     11     68     39     42     42
DK/NA                 9      4     10     12      7     12
 
 
20. Do you think Linda McMahon can bring about needed change to Washington or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  45%    83%    20%    43%    46%    44%
No                   48     15     72     49     49     47
DK/NA                 7      2      9      8      5      9
 
 
21. Does the controversy about Richard Blumenthal's statements regarding his military service during the Vietnam war make you more likely to vote for him in the November general election, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely           1%     -%     2%     1%     2%     1%
Less likely          37     70     10     39     44     29
Doesn't make diff    60     28     87     57     52     69
DK/NA                 2      1      1      3      2      1
 
 
22. Does Linda McMahon's experience as CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment make you more likely to vote for her for United States Senator, less likely or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          20%    38%     3%    22%    24%    14%
Less likely          33     12     46     34     28     38
Doesn't make diff    47     50     49     43     48     46
DK/NA                 1      1      2      -      -      2
 
 
23. Is one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate - to express support for Barack Obama, or express opposition to Barack Obama or is Barack Obama not a factor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              16%     -     35%    11%    15%    18%
Oppose               33     75      2     34     34     32
Not a factor         49     24     60     55     49     49
DK/NA                 1      -      3      -      1      1
 
 
24. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S Senate next year, or doesn't it matter to you?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Democrats            39%     3%    82%    23%    37%    40%
Republicans          40     90      5     39     43     36
Doesn't matter       19      6     11     36     18     21
DK/NA                 2      1      2      2      2      2
 
 
36. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              70%    46%    93%    67%    64%    78%
Disapprove           26     50      6     28     33     18
DK/NA                 4      4      2      5      3      4
 
 
37. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              45%     8%    81%    38%    43%    48%
Disapprove           52     91     16     58     55     48
DK/NA                 3      1      3      4      3      3
 
 
40. How worried are you about the direction of the nation's economy in the next year? Would you say you are very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very worried         54%    77%    36%    54%    52%    56%
Smwht worried        37     21     49     37     36     38
Not too worried       7      2     11      8     10      4
Not worried at all    2      -      3      2      2      1
DK/NA                 1      -      2      -      1      -
 
 
41. Which comes closer to your view: Government should do more to solve problems or Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Shld do more         36%     5%    67%    29%    33%    40%
Doing too much       56     90     23     63     59     53
DK/NA                 8      5     10      8      8      7
 
 
42. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  17%    37%     4%    15%    18%    16%
No                   80     60     92     84     81     80
DK/NA                 2      3      4      1      1      5