October 14, 2010 - Blumenthal Opens Up Double-Digit Lead In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Independent Voters Shift Back To Democrat

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Reversing a months-long decline in his lead in the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has opened up a 54 - 43 percent likely voter lead over Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 46 percent Blumenthal lead in a September 28 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

In today's survey, 3 percent are undecided and 7 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. Blumenthal leads 95 -4 percent among Democrats while McMahon leads 87 - 12 percent among Republicans.

Independent voters shift from 49 - 44 percent for McMahon September 28 to 49 - 44 percent for Blumenthal today. Women back Blumenthal 63 - 32 percent while men back McMahon 52 - 46 percent.

"After Linda McMahon had climbed to within 3 points of Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, he has stopped her momentum and increased his lead by 8 points in two weeks. While September wasn't very good for Blumenthal, perhaps like Reggie Jackson, he could be called 'Mr. October,'" said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"Fueled by a surge in support from women, Democrats and independents, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has his best poll numbers since the start of the fall campaign."

"Linda McMahon may have peaked too soon and her advertising saturation could be causing 'McMahon fatigue.'"

"Blumenthal is running stronger among Democrats than McMahon is running among Republicans. He is winning women by an overwhelming 31-point margin, while McMahon has struggled with women throughout the campaign. They have a negative image of her but like him by more than 2-1," Dr. Schwartz added.

"With only three weeks left in the campaign, McMahon is down by 11 points with only 3 percent undecided. Even if she won all the undecided, she still would fall short. This has been a very unusual election year, however, so anything is possible."

Likely voters approve 69 - 26 percent of the job Blumenthal is doing as attorney general and say 57 - 38 percent they have a favorable opinion of him.

McMahon gets a split 46 - 46 percent favorability.

First Lady Michelle Obama gets a 56 - 28 percent favorability rating, but only 5 percent of Connecticut likely voters say her campaigning for Blumenthal makes them more likely to vote for him. Another 19 percent say they are less likely and 76 percent say Michelle Obama's involvement won't affect their vote.

Connecticut likely voters give President Barack Obama a split 47 - 47 percent job approval rating.

From October 7 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,119 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582- 5201, or follow us on Twitter.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Blumenthal           54%    12%    95%    49%    46%    63%
McMahon              43     87      4     44     52     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      1      1      5      2      5
 
                     RATING ECONOMY Q13
                     Better Worse  Same
 
Blumenthal           76%    39%    55%
McMahon              22     59     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                 -      2      4
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? (This table includes Leaners)
                    LIKELY VOTERS.........
                    Oct 14  Sep 28  Sep 14
                    2010    2010    2010
 
Blumenthal          54      49      51
McMahon             43      46      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     -       -       -
DK/NA                3       4       3
 
 
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                            CAND CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    RB     LM
 
Made up              92%    91%    93%
Might change          7      8      7
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            57%    19%    92%    54%    48%    66%
Unfavorable          38     75      7     40     47     29
Hvn't hrd enough      3      5      1      5      4      3
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 14  Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            57      51      55
Unfavorable          38      41      39
Hvn't hrd enough      3       6       4
REFUSED               1       2       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            46%    81%    11%    49%    53%    37%
Unfavorable          46     11     81     43     39     55
Hvn't hrd enough      6      7      5      7      7      5
REFUSED               2      2      3      -      1      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 14  Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            46      42      45
Unfavorable          46      43      41
Hvn't hrd enough      6      14      13
REFUSED               2       1       1
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Michelle Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            56%    24%    85%    54%    50%    63%
Unfavorable          28     60      9     24     30     25
Hvn't hrd enough     12     11      4     19     16      8
REFUSED               4      6      2      3      3      5
 
 
8. Does Michelle Obama's campaigning for Richard Blumenthal make you more likely to vote for Blumenthal for United States Senator, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely           5%     -      9%     4%     4%     6%
Less likely          19     42      5     16     21     16
Doesn't make diff    76     58     85     79     75     77
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              69%    37%    94%    71%    63%    76%
Disapprove           26     58      4     25     34     18
DK/NA                 5      5      2      4      3      6
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              47%     9%    83%    43%    39%    56%
Disapprove           47     87     11     52     56     37
DK/NA                 6      4      6      6      5      7
 
                     RATING ECONOMY Q13
                     Better Worse  Same
 
Approve              77%    27%    48%
Disapprove           18     68     44
DK/NA                 5      5      7
 
 
12. Would you describe the state of Connecticut's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Excellent             1%     -      2%     0%     0%     1%
Good                 12     13     14     11     11     14
Not so good          51     42     58     51     51     51
Poor                 35     43     25     37     37     33
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      2      1
 
 
13. Do you think Connecticut's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better               14%    12%    21%    10%    15%    12%
Worse                28     31     20     31     27     30
The same             56     54     57     57     57     55
DK/NA                 2      3      2      1      2      2