July 29, 2010 - 'Outsiders' Lead In Florida Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Scott Up In GOP Gov Race, Greene Leads In Dem Senate Bid

Word format


Florida businessman Rick Scott holds a 43 - 32 percent lead over State Attorney General Bill McCollum for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely primary voters released today. Another 23 percent are undecided and 43 percent of those who do name a candidate say they might change their mind.

In the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, businessman Jeff Greene has jumped to a 33 - 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, with former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre at 4 percent. But 35 percent are undecided and 54 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Scott's lead, compared to 44 - 31 percent in a June 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, strongly correlates with voter preference for a candidate who is a government outsider rather than one with longtime government experience. Scott, who is independently wealthy, is a former health care executive who has never held political office.

The same is true for Greene, who has leapfrogged Meek who had 29 percent June 10, compared to Greene's 27 percent.

"If there was any doubt that enough money can make a political unknown into a front- runner, the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for governor should lay them to rest," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."

"Anything can happen in the interim, but since their opponents are unlikely to outspend them down the home stretch, they are both in enviable positions," Brown added. "Both men also are being helped by the national anti-incumbent, anti-establishment wave evident in other primaries. Both men have battled their respective party hierarchies, quite successfully at this point."

Asked which "type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor - someone with years of government experience or a government outsider," likely GOP primary voters opted for the outsider 54 - 28 percent, an outcome which apparently benefits Scott.

"In most election years, McCollum's almost two decades of experience in government would be a major asset, but this year it appears to be a liability, since Scott has scored points labeling his opponent a 'career politician,'" Brown said.

Other questions also reflect Scott's edge:
  • Among likely Republican primary voters, Scott is viewed favorably by 39 percent, unfavorably by 26 percent, compared to McCollum's split 34 - 34 percent favorability rating;
  • Asked which candidate would do a better job rebuilding Florida's economy, Scott leads by almost two-to-one, 45 - 23 percent;
  • Voters believe Scott shares their values more than McCollum, 38 - 26 percent;
  • They see Scott as more consistently conservative, 38 - 26 percent.
Although Greene holds a double-digit lead in the Democratic primary, likely voters say 44 - 35 percent that they would prefer a candidate with long government experience.

Greene's favorability among likely Democratic primary voters is 31 - 18 percent, with 47 percent who say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Meek gets a 28 - 13 percent favorability, with 55 percent who don't know enough about him.

By 26 - 21 percent they say Greene most shares their values, with 46 percent undecided. By 22 - 16 percent they say Meek is more consistently liberal, with 57 percent undecided.

From July 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 760 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points and 782 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 760 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
1R. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? (If undecided q1R) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McCollum or Scott? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
McCollum             32%    34%    31%
Scott                43     44     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                23     21     25
 
TREND: If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McCollum or Scott? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
McCollum             32      31
Scott                43      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                23      24
 
 
1aR. (If express choice q1Rep) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1R....
                            CAND CHOICE Q1R...
                     Tot    BM     RS
 
Made up              55%    55%    54%
Might change         43     43     43
DK/NA                 2      1      3
 
TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CAND CHOICE GIVEN
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
Made up              55      39
Might change         43      59
DK/NA                 2       2
 
 
2R. Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    39%    38%
Unfavorable          26     27     25
Hvn't hrd enough     31     30     32
REFUSED               5      4      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            39      40
Unfavorable          26      12
Hvn't hrd enough     31      46
REFUSED               5       3
 
 
3R. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            34%    39%    29%
Unfavorable          34     34     35
Hvn't hrd enough     27     22     31
REFUSED               5      5      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            34      41
Unfavorable          34      19
Hvn't hrd enough     27      36
REFUSED               5       4
 
 
4R. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor - someone with years of government experience or a government outsider?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Experience           28%    24%    32%
Outsider             54     58     49
DK/NA                18     17     19
 
 
5R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think - would do a better job rebuilding Florida's economy, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
McCollum             23%    25%    20%
Scott                45     47     44
NO DIFF(VOL)          5      4      6
DK/NA                27     24     30
 
 
6R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
McCollum             26%    28%    24%
Scott                38     41     35
NO DIFF(VOL)          7      7      8
DK/NA                29     24     33
 
 
7R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as the most consistently conservative, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
McCollum             26%    26%    26%
Scott                38     43     32
NO DIFF(VOL)          5      5      5
DK/NA                32     26     37
 
 
 
THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 782 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS 1D. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Kendrick Meek, Maurice Ferre, or Jeff Greene? (If undecided q1D) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Meek, Ferre, or Greene? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Meek                 23%    30%    20%
Ferre                 4      3      4
Greene               33     34     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      2
DK/NA                35     28     40
 
TREND: If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Kendrick Meek, Maurice Ferre, or Jeff Greene? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Meek, Ferre, or Greene? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
Meek                 23      29
Ferre                 4       3
Greene               33      27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       -
DK/NA                35      37
 
 
1aD. (If express choice q1Dem) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1D....
                            CAND CHOICE Q1D...
                     Tot    Meek   Greene
 
Made up              43%    57%    36%
Might change         54     41     62
DK/NA                 2      2      3
 
TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CAND CHOICE GIVEN
 
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
Made up              43      36
Might change         54      62
DK/NA                 2       3
 
 
2D. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            28%    36%    23%
Unfavorable          13     13     14
Hvn't hrd enough     55     45     60
REFUSED               4      5      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            28      29
Unfavorable          13       8
Hvn't hrd enough     55      59
REFUSED               4       3
 
 
3D. Is your opinion of - Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            31%    29%    32%
Unfavorable          18     20     17
Hvn't hrd enough     47     45     47
REFUSED               5      7      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            31      23
Unfavorable          18      10
Hvn't hrd enough     47      64
REFUSED               5       3
 
 
4D. Is your opinion of - Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             8%     8%     8%
Unfavorable           8     13      6
Hvn't hrd enough     79     73     83
REFUSED               4      6      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jun 10
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable             8       8
Unfavorable           8       6
Hvn't hrd enough     79      83
REFUSED               4       3
 
 
5D. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a United States Senator, someone with years of government experience or a government outsider?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Experience           44%    43%    44%
Outsider             35     36     35
DK/NA                21     21     21
 
 
6D. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values - Kendrick Meek, Jeff Greene or Maurice Ferre?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Meek                 21%    27%    18%
Greene               26     29     25
Ferre                 3      2      4
NO DIFF(VOL)          4      3      4
DK/NA                46     39     50
 
 
7D. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as the most consistently liberal - Kendrick Meek, Jeff Greene or Maurice Ferre?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Meek                 22%    32%    16%
Greene               16     16     16
Ferre                 3      3      4
NO DIFF(VOL)          2      2      2
DK/NA                57     47     62