June 21, 2012 - Mack Leads Florida GOP Senate Pack, But Trails Nelson, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Back On Top In White House Race

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U.S. Rep. Connie Mack has an overwhelming lead over the Republican field for Florida's U.S. Senate nomination, while Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson edges him by a nose, 43 - 39 percent, in a November match-up, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

A shift by independent voters gives President Barack Obama a 46 - 42 percent lead over Republican Gov. Mitt Romney in the Sunshine State, according to the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

In the GOP U.S. Senate primary, Republican registered voters give Mack 41 percent, while none of the other three candidates crack double digits. Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux gets 8 percent, with Tea Party favorite Mike McCalister at 5 percent and former U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon at 3 percent. Another 39 percent of Republicans remain undecided.

"At this point, the Republican Senate nomination is Congressman Connie Mack's to lose," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In politics, anything is possible and we still have two months to go until the Senate primary, but it would take a major change in public opinion for one of the other candidates to stop Connie Mack. And the projected November election between U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Mack looks like it could go down to the wire."

Mack also runs best against Nelson among the GOP hopefuls. The Democratic incumbent's leads over the other GOP Senate aspirants is in double digits: 47 - 32 percent over LeMieux; 45 - 34 percent over McCalister and 47 - 31 percent over Weldon.

Nelson's razor-thin lead over Mack compares to a tie in the May 24 Quinnipiac University poll with Mack at 42 percent and Nelson at 41 percent.

"Sen. Nelson gets modest reviews from voters who give him a 47 - 32 percent job approval rating," said Brown. "By 46 - 33 percent they say he deserves another term. He gets a 44 - 26 percent favorability rating. By comparison, Mack has a 34 - 22 percent favorability rating, with 42 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion."

In the Nelson-Mack matchup, Nelson carries Democrats 80 - 9 percent and independent voters 44 - 33 percent, while losing Republicans 81 - 6 percent. Men split 42 - 42 percent while women go for Nelson 44 - 36 percent.

In the presidential race, Obama's lead reflects the coalition that elected him four years ago. He carries women 49 - 39 percent, African-Americans 91 - 5 percent and voters 18 to 34 years old 55 - 28 percent. Obama also leads 48 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old. Men split 44 - 45 percent. Romney carries white voters 50 - 37 percent and voters over 55 years old 48 - 43 percent.

Independent voters shift from 44 - 36 percent for Romney in a May 23 Quinnipiac University poll, showing Romney ahead 47 - 41 percent overall, to 46 - 37 percent for Obama today. In today's results, Obama carries Democrats 88 - 4 percent, while Romney takes Republicans 91 - 5 percent.

While Florida voters say 48 - 44 percent that Romney would do a better job on the economy, they split 45 - 45 percent on who would create more jobs and say 49 - 44 percent that Obama would do more "to advance the economic interests of middle class Americans."

"The president is doing better among independent voters," said Brown. "It also is worth noting that the last Quinnipiac University Florida poll was on the heels of the president's backing of gay marriage, which might have hurt him at that time.

"At this point, Romney is not well-defined in the minds of many voters, especially those in the middle. This movement reflects that uncertainty among voters who are up for grabs."

From June 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,697 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 698 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Connie Mack, George LeMieux, Mike McCalister, and Dave Weldon, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....................................
                                                        BornAgnEv     TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Mack                 41%    47%    35%    43%    38%    40%    42%    50%    39%
LeMieux               8      9      7      8      8      6     10     10      7
McCalister            5      3      6      4      4      4      3      5      4
Weldon                3      4      3      3      6      4      3      2      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      3      2      6      1      4      3      3
DK/NA                39     32     47     39     38     45     35     29     42
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Connie Mack, George LeMieux, Mike McCalister and Dave Weldon, for whom would you vote? (na=not asked, 2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................................
                     Jun 21  May 24  Jan 11  Nov 11  Sep 22  Aug 04  May 26
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Mack                 41      40      39      32      na      na      na
LeMieux               8       7       6       9      17      12      14
McCalister            5       8       6       6      11      15      na
Weldon                3      na      na      na      na      na      na
Haridopolos          na      na      na      na      na      na      13
Hasner               na      na       2       2       5       6       4
Miller               na      na       1       2       5       8      na
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       2       1       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       3       4       3       4       4
DK/NA                39      41      42      45      58      53      64
 
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Obama                46%     5%    88%    46%    44%    49%    37%    91%    49%
Romney               42     91      4     37     45     39     50      5     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      5      4      2      2      -      5
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      2      5      3      3      4      -      2
DK/NA                 6      2      6      8      5      8      6      4      6
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Obama                40%    36%    27%    34%    36%    39%    22%    36%    39%
Romney               51     50     62     54     53     48     68     51     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      3      2      3      2      2      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      3      2      4      3      2      3      2
DK/NA                 4      8      5      8      5      8      6      7      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                47%    46%    54%    50%    44%    37%    55%    48%    43%
Romney               45     41     30     40     48     57     28     41     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      3      2      3      2      4      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      5      2      2      2      5      2      2
DK/NA                 4      7      8      6      4      3      7      6      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                                                             OBAMA.........
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 21  May 23  May 03  Mar 28  Jan 26  Mar 28  Sep 22
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011
 
Obama                46      41      43      49      45      49      40
Romney               42      47      44      42      45      42      47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       3       2       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       2       2       3       2       4
DK/NA                 6       7       9       5       6       5       8
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            39%    80%     8%    32%    41%    37%    45%    10%    41%
Unfavorable          42      9     70     46     44     41     39     59     39
Hvn't hrd enough     16      9     19     19     13     19     13     28     16
REFUSED               3      2      3      4      2      3      3      2      4
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Favorable            50%    42%    55%    46%    47%    43%    58%    46%    50%
Unfavorable          40     40     29     34     41     38     23     40     39
Hvn't hrd enough      8     16     13     16     10     16     15     12      8
REFUSED               2      3      3      3      2      3      3      3      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            43%    37%    29%    33%    44%    55%    28%    36%    43%
Unfavorable          43     42     44     45     43     34     47     42     41
Hvn't hrd enough     11     18     23     19     11      8     26     19     11
REFUSED               2      3      4      2      2      3      -      2      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 21  May 23  May 03  Mar 28  Jan 26  Jan 11  Feb 07
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2007
 
Favorable            39      44      40      41      43      47      13
Unfavorable          42      35      34      36      37      29      11
Hvn't hrd enough     16      19      22      19      17      22      75
REFUSED               3       2       4       4       3       3       1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            47%     8%    87%    46%    43%    51%    39%    89%    52%
Unfavorable          46     88      8     46     51     43     55      9     39
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      4      5      4      4      3      2      6
REFUSED               3      3      1      3      3      3      3      -      3
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Favorable            44%    36%    28%    37%    35%    42%    23%    39%    36%
Unfavorable          53     56     65     56     59     51     72     54     58
Hvn't hrd enough      2      4      4      4      2      4      4      4      3
REFUSED               1      4      3      3      4      3      2      3      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            50%    46%    54%    51%    46%    38%    52%    52%    44%
Unfavorable          48     46     37     43     52     56     39     43     50
Hvn't hrd enough      1      5      4      4      1      3      9      1      3
REFUSED               1      3      4      2      2      3      -      4      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 21  May 23  May 03  Mar 28  Jan 26  Feb 19  Feb 07
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2009    2007
 
Favorable            47      45      46      51      49      69      37
Unfavorable          46      50      47      44      48      22      18
Hvn't hrd enough      4       3       4       2       1       6      44
REFUSED               3       2       3       3       2       3       1
 
 
5. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
More                 36%    49%    33%    30%    38%    35%    36%    36%    37%
Less                 23     16     21     29     22     24     24     17     22
About the same       40     34     45     40     40     40     38     46     41
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
More                 37%    36%    39%    37%    38%    35%    42%    36%    42%
Less                 23     25     24     26     22     26     20     28     22
About the same       40     37     37     36     39     37     37     35     36
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
More                 38%    35%    27%    41%    33%    44%    29%    33%    40%
Less                 23     23     23     25     24     21     29     23     21
About the same       38     40     49     34     42     34     40     43     38
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                                                             MORE..........
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 21  May 23  May 03  Mar 28  Jan 26  Sep 22  Dec 08
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    2011
 
More                 36      38      35      35      38      40      32
Less                 23      19      26      27      20      22      23
About the same       40      42      38      37      41      37      44
DK/NA                 1       2       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Nelson               43%     6%    80%    44%    42%    44%    38%    73%    42%
Mack                 39     81      9     33     42     36     44     13     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      -      3      2      2      2      1      1
DK/NA                15     10     11     20     13     18     16     13     13
 
                     North/
                     Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Nelson               41%    46%    41%    30%    51%
Mack                 45     40     39     52     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      2      2
DK/NA                12     12     19     14     17
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Jun 21  May 24  Mar 29  Jan 11  Nov 11
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2011
 
Nelson               43      41      44      41      42
Mack                 39      42      36      40      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       2       1
DK/NA                15      15      17      16      16
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and George LeMieux the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Nelson               47%     8%    85%    48%    46%    49%    42%    79%    48%
LeMieux              32     73      3     26     35     30     37      6     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      4      2      2      2      3      4
DK/NA                17     16     11     20     16     18     19     10     13
 
                     North/
                     Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Nelson               46%    48%    45%    35%    56%
LeMieux              37     33     31     45     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      6      2
DK/NA                14     16     21     14     18
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and George LeMieux the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Jun 21  May 24  May 26
                     2012    2012    2011
 
Nelson               47      43      47
LeMieux              32      36      27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       2
DK/NA                17      19      22
 
 
8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Mike McCalister the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Nelson               45%     8%    81%    46%    44%    46%    41%    79%    40%
McCalister           34     75      6     28     37     32     38      7     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      4      2      2      2      2      2
DK/NA                18     16     13     21     16     19     18     11     19
 
                     North/
                     Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Nelson               46%    45%    41%    32%    53%
McCalister           38     35     36     48     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      3      2
DK/NA                12     17     20     15     21
 
 
9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Dave Weldon the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Nelson               47%    11%    83%    46%    44%    49%    41%    78%    49%
Weldon               31     71      3     26     34     29     36      5     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      -      5      3      2      2      1      3
DK/NA                19     15     14     22     18     19     19     16     15
 
                     North/
                     Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Nelson               45%    49%    42%    34%    56%
Weldon               36     30     35     41     22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      6      2
DK/NA                15     18     21     18     20
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            44%    18%    71%    43%    46%    42%    40%    66%    49%
Unfavorable          26     53      5     24     29     24     31      8     17
Hvn't hrd enough     28     27     23     30     23     32     28     25     29
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      2      1      1      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 21  May 24  Jan 11  Feb 3
                     2012    2012    2012    2011
 
Favorable            44      39      41      39
Unfavorable          26      28      23      23
Hvn't hrd enough     28      31      35      36
REFUSED               2       2       1       2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Connie Mack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            34%    57%    15%    33%    39%    30%    36%    18%    39%
Unfavorable          22      9     36     23     25     20     23     23     15
Hvn't hrd enough     42     32     47     43     35     48     39     58     42
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      2      2      1      1      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Connie Mack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 21  May 24  Jan 11
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            34      32      32
Unfavorable          22      16      13
Hvn't hrd enough     42      50      54
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of George LeMieux favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            14%    28%     4%    12%    18%    11%    15%     9%    19%
Unfavorable          11      4     20     11     12     11     12     11      6
Hvn't hrd enough     73     66     73     77     68     77     72     80     71
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      2      2      1      -      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of George LeMieux favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 21  May 24
                     2012    2012
 
Favorable            14      13
Unfavorable          11      11
Hvn't hrd enough     73      75
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Mike McCalister favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            12%    22%     3%    12%    14%    11%    13%     8%    14%
Unfavorable           8      1     14      9      9      8      9     14      1
Hvn't hrd enough     78     75     81     78     75     80     78     78     80
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      2      1      1      1      5
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Dave Weldon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            10%    17%     4%     9%    11%     9%    11%     4%     9%
Unfavorable           7      2     12      7      8      6      7      8      4
Hvn't hrd enough     82     79     82     83     79     84     80     88     82
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      2      1      1      -      6
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              47%     7%    89%    44%    44%    51%    39%    89%    51%
Disapprove           49     91     10     51     54     45     57     10     48
DK/NA                 4      2      2      5      3      5      5      1      2
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Approve              42%    37%    29%    38%    36%    41%    24%    39%    39%
Disapprove           55     57     66     59     61     53     74     55     59
DK/NA                 2      6      5      3      3      6      1      6      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              48%    47%    56%    50%    44%    38%    57%    49%    43%
Disapprove           50     49     40     47     54     57     41     47     53
DK/NA                 2      4      5      3      2      5      3      4      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 21  May 23  May 03  Mar 28  Jan 26  Feb 19  Sep 22
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2009    2011
 
Approve              47      44      46      47      46      64      39
Disapprove           49      52      50      49      52      23      57
DK/NA                 4       3       4       5       2      13       5
 
 
21. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Deserves         48%     6%    90%    47%    43%    52%    40%    87%    49%
No/Does not          48     92      8     48     53     44     56      9     45
DK/NA                 4      2      2      5      4      4      4      4      6
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Yes/Deserves         42%    39%    30%    39%    36%    44%    24%    40%    39%
No/Does not          56     56     66     59     61     52     73     57     59
DK/NA                 2      4      3      2      3      4      2      3      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes/Deserves         48%    48%    58%    50%    45%    39%    55%    50%    44%
No/Does not          49     48     36     48     54     58     41     47     51
DK/NA                 3      4      6      3      2      3      3      3      4
 
TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? (*High also 50% May 2011)
                                                             DESERVES......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 21  May 23  May 03  Mar 28  Jan 26  Mar 28* Sep 22
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         48      44      45      50      47      50      41
No/Does not          48      52      50      47      49      47      53
DK/NA                 4       4       5       3       4       3       6
 
 
22. Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Deserves         46%    16%    73%    49%    46%    46%    41%    72%    55%
No/Does not          33     61     13     28     37     29     38     10     27
DK/NA                21     22     15     23     17     24     22     18     19
 
                     North/
                     Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Yes/Deserves         40%    47%    47%    33%    54%
No/Does not          42     31     34     42     23
DK/NA                18     21     20     25     23
 
TREND: Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                     DESERVES......
                                                     High    Low
                     Jun 21  May 24  Jan 11  Sep 22  May 26  May 24
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2012
 
Yes/Deserves         46      40      44      44      48      40
No/Does not          33      39      35      33      30      39
DK/NA                21      21      21      23      22      21
 
 
25. Would you say Barack Obama is a likable person or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  78%    57%    95%    81%    79%    77%    76%    91%    82%
No                   19     40      3     16     20     18     21      5     16
DK/NA                 3      3      2      3      1      5      3      4      2
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Yes                  76%    76%    72%    71%    77%    75%    66%    77%    72%
No                   21     21     24     27     21     22     30     21     24
DK/NA                 3      3      4      1      2      4      4      2      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  79%    78%    81%    81%    78%    76%    84%    82%    75%
No                   18     19     17     16     20     21     14     15     22
DK/NA                 3      3      2      3      2      3      3      3      3
 
TREND: Would you say Barack Obama is a likable person or not?
                     Jun 21  May 23
                     2012    2012
 
Yes                  78      76
No                   19      21
DK/NA                 3       3
 
 
26. Would you say Mitt Romney is a likable person or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  60%    84%    39%    60%    63%    57%    67%    31%    58%
No                   30     11     46     32     29     31     25     49     33
DK/NA                10      5     15      8      8     12      9     20      9
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Yes                  67%    66%    73%    71%    69%    65%    77%    68%    64%
No                   28     24     18     24     23     27     14     24     26
DK/NA                 5     10      9      6      8      9      9      8     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  62%    58%    50%    55%    65%    75%    53%    54%    64%
No                   31     30     34     35     29     21     36     33     27
DK/NA                 7     12     16     10      5      4     11     13      9
 
TREND: Would you say Mitt Romney is a likable person or not?
                     Jun 21  May 23
                     2012    2012
 
Yes                  60      58
No                   30      30
DK/NA                10      11
 
 
27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Obama                44%     4%    85%    43%    41%    48%    35%    87%    49%
Romney               48     91      9     47     52     44     56     12     47
DK/NA                 8      5      6     10      7      8      9      1      4
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Obama                38%    34%    26%    33%    33%    37%    22%    35%    37%
Romney               56     56     66     58     58     53     71     56     55
DK/NA                 6     10      8      9      8      9      7      9      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                45%    44%    53%    45%    42%    36%    48%    47%    42%
Romney               49     47     35     49     52     61     43     46     51
DK/NA                 5      9     12      6      5      4     10      7      7
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? (* Low also 39% Nov 2011)
                                                             OBAMA.........
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 21  May 23  May 03  Mar 28  Jan 26  Mar 28  Jan 11
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012*
 
Obama                44      40      40      45      41      45      39
Romney               48      50      49      48      50      48      52
DK/NA                 8      10      11       7       9       7       9
 
 
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Obama                52%    11%    88%    53%    50%    53%    44%    88%    55%
Romney               40     83      6     37     42     38     47      7     40
DK/NA                 9      6      6     11      7     10     10      5      5
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Obama                47%    42%    36%    38%    43%    44%    29%    44%    41%
Romney               45     48     55     52     48     46     64     46     49
DK/NA                 8     11      9     11      9     11      8     10     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                54%    50%    59%    56%    49%    45%    63%    54%    47%
Romney               39     40     30     37     45     49     28     40     44
DK/NA                 7      9     11      7      6      6     10      6      9
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     Jun 21  Jan 26
                     2012    2012
 
Obama                52      46
Romney               40      45
DK/NA                 9       9
 
 
29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would create more jobs, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Obama                45%     6%    83%    44%    42%    48%    36%    88%    49%
Romney               45     89     10     43     49     42     53      9     43
DK/NA                 9      5      7     13      9     10     11      3      8
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Obama                36%    36%    28%    32%    35%    38%    24%    36%    38%
Romney               56     52     62     58     55     51     69     52     53
DK/NA                 8     12     10     10     10     11      7     12      9
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                43%    46%    53%    50%    42%    36%    53%    48%    42%
Romney               50     44     33     44     51     58     35     45     49
DK/NA                 7     11     14      6      8      6     12      7      9
 
 
30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do more to advance the economic interests of middle class Americans, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Obama                49%     6%    90%    50%    46%    52%    41%    91%    52%
Romney               44     89      7     40     47     41     52      8     43
DK/NA                 7      5      4     10      7      7      8      2      5
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Obama                46%    38%    31%    39%    38%    43%    25%    41%    42%
Romney               51     52     63     55     54     50     69     52     52
DK/NA                 4      9      6      7      8      7      6      7      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                52%    48%    56%    53%    48%    40%    59%    50%    46%
Romney               44     43     33     41     49     56     31     43     48
DK/NA                 4      9     12      7      4      4      9      7      6
 
 

Demographic Summary