May 14, 2008 - Obama, Clinton Both Top McCain In November Face-Off, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Most Democrats Back Obama-Clinton 'dream Ticket'

Word format

Either one of the two Democratic contenders, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, leads the likely Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 47 - 40 percent while Sen. Clinton is up 46 - 41 percent.

In an Obama-McCain matchup, independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 37 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, while women back Obama 49 - 36 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among white voters, while blacks back Obama 87 - 4 percent.

In a Clinton-McCain contest, independent voters split with 41 - 41 percent. Men go with McCain 46 - 42 percent while women back Clinton 51 - 36 percent. White voters back McCain 48 - 41 percent, the same margin as the Obama-McCain matchup, while black voters back Clinton 79 - 8 percent.

Among Democrats, Obama is ahead slightly as 45 percent say they want to see him win the nomination while 41 percent want to see Clinton as the nominee. And Democrats say 63 - 34 percent that Clinton should stay in the presidential race.

By a 60 - 33 percent margin, Democrats say Obama should pick Clinton as his vice presidential running mate.

"Sen. Hillary Clinton's never-say-die campaign still has lots of fans. Just as in delegates, states, money, you-name-it, Obama leads her in national support - but only by a bit," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Either Democrat leads Sen. John McCain, with heavy support from black voters. McCain has an edge among white voters."

"Party leaders may be cringing over the potential damage to Democratic chances in November from the endless primary campaign, but two-thirds of the rank-and-file think Clinton ought to keep battling," Carroll added.

"The 'dream ticket?' Three out of five Democrats like the idea."

The economy is the single most important issue in their vote for President, 48 percent of voters say, with 20 percent listing the war in Iraq and 11 percent listing health care. Americans are split in what quality they want most in a candidate, as 31 percent most want a strong leader and 29 percent want someone trustworthy.

Bush Approval

American voters disapprove 67 - 28 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, his lowest approval ever in a Quinnipiac University national poll. Voters disapprove 67 - 29 percent of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq and disapprove 75 - 20 percent of the way he is handling the economy.

The war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 62 - 33 percent. The U.S. should set a timetable for troop withdrawal, 48 percent say, while 28 percent say U.S. troops should stay as long as needed and 22 percent say withdraw all U.S. troops as soon as possible.

"The overall numbers blur a big partisan split over Iraq. By a large margin, Republicans think the war was the right thing to do. By an even larger margin, Democrats think it was wrong," Carroll said. "What should the next President do about Iraq? Get out or set a withdrawal timetable, Democrats say. Stay the course, say a majority of Republicans."

From May 8 -12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,745 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1a. (Democrats only) Who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination for President this year - Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?
                        DEMOCRATS .........
                        Tot     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 41%     38%     43%
Obama                   45      49      43
DK/NA                   14      14      14
 
 
1b. (Democrats supporting Clinton q1a) Is your support more for Clinton or more against Obama?
                        DEM/CLINTON SUP Q1a
                        Tot     Men     Wom
 
For Clinton             86%     86%     86%
Against Obama           12       9      13
DK/NA                    3       5       1
 
 
1c. (Democrats supporting Obama q1a) Is your support more for Obama or more against Clinton?
                        DEM/OBAMA SUP Q1a .
                        Tot     Men     Wom
 
For Obama               90%     86%     93%
Against Clinton          7      11       4
DK/NA                    3       3       3
 
 
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Clinton                 46%      5%     80%     41%     42%     51%     41%     79%
McCain                  41      87      11      41      46      36      48       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       3       3       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       4       5       4       4       3       4
DK/NA                    7       4       5       9       6       8       6       6
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Clinton                 44%     47%     49%
McCain                  46      38      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       5       5
DK/NA                    6       8       7
 
                                        WHITE.......................................
                                        Working
                        Age     Age     Class   College                 BrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     (NoCol) Degree  Men     Wom     Evngl   Cath
 
Clinton                 46%     47%     41%     41%     36%     45%     33%     41%
McCain                  43      40      48      48      53      43      57      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2       1       2       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       3       4       3       2       4       4       2
DK/NA                    5       7       6       7       5       7       5       7
 
                        DEMS Q1a.....
                        Clin    Obama   IMP ISSUE TO VOTE..... /IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE.
                        Supp    Supp    War     Econ    HlthCr  Trust   Leader  Competent
 
Clinton                 94%     69%     60%     48%     64%     39%     52%     51%
McCain                   3      15      25      39      24      42      39      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       2       2       2       2       4       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       7       6       3       6       6       3       2
DK/NA                    2       8       6       8       4       9       5       5
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 3   Feb 21  Dec 6
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2005
 
Clinton                 46      44      47      44      41      44      40
McCain                  41      44      41      42      46      46      44
SMONE ELSE               2       2       3       3       2       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE              4       3       3       4       3       3       3
DK/NA                    7       6       6       7       8       6      11
 
 
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Obama                   47%      7%     75%     48%     44%     49%     40%     87%
McCain                  40      84      13      37      45      36      47       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       2       2       1       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       5       1       3       5       3       3
DK/NA                    8       5       6      11       6       9       8       5
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Obama                   41%     52%     48%
McCain                  46      33      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       3       3
DK/NA                    7      10       7
 
                                        WHITE.......................................
                                        Working
                        Age     Age     Class   College                 BrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     (NoCol) Degree  Men     Wom     Evngl   Cath
 
Obama                   52%     45%     39%     43%     38%     42%     27%     37%
McCain                  37      41      46      47      52      42      60      46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       3       1       2       2       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       4       1       2       5       6       3
DK/NA                    6       8       8       8       6      10       6      10
 
                        DEMS Q1a.....
                        Clin    Obama   IMP ISSUE TO VOTE..... /IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE.
                        Supp    Supp    War     Econ    HlthCr  Trust   Leader  Competent
 
Obama                   57%     96%     66%     48%     60%     44%     49%     53%
McCain                  24       2      24      37      28      39      39      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       2       2       3       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         9       -       3       4       2       5       3       2
DK/NA                    9       2       6      10       8       9       8       8
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 3   Feb 21
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Obama                   47      43      43      43      42      43
McCain                  40      43      39      41      42      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       3       3       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       4       4       2       4
DK/NA                    8       8      11      10      12      10
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               47%     17%     70%     44%     43%     51%     45%     60%
Unfavorable             44      77      22      45      48      40      47      25
Hvn't hrd enough         7       4       6       8       7       6       5      14
REFUSED                  2       1       2       3       2       3       2       2
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Favorable               46%     46%     50%
Unfavorable             45      46      40
Hvn't hrd enough         6       6       7
REFUSED                  3       2       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 3   Feb 21
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               47      46      48      47      44      46
Unfavorable             44      46      43      45      46      45
Hvn't hrd enough         7       6       6       6       7       7
REFUSED                  2       2       3       2       3       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               49%     23%     63%     57%     47%     51%     45%     81%
Unfavorable             33      60      20      25      36      31      38       7
Hvn't hrd enough        15      15      13      15      15      14      15       9
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       2       3       2       3
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Favorable               46%     54%     47%
Unfavorable             37      26      37
Hvn't hrd enough        13      17      14
REFUSED                  4       2       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 3   Feb 21
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               49      50      48      48      46      44
Unfavorable             33      26      22      21      18      14
Hvn't hrd enough        15      21      28      29      34      40
REFUSED                  3       2       3       2       2       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               45%     78%     22%     47%     50%     40%     52%      9%
Unfavorable             31       8      50      27      29      33      29      47
Hvn't hrd enough        22      12      25      24      19      24      17      42
REFUSED                  3       2       3       2       2       3       3       2
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Favorable               46%     45%     43%
Unfavorable             29      31      33
Hvn't hrd enough        21      22      22
REFUSED                  3       2       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 3   Feb 21
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               45      49      42      45      49      51
Unfavorable             31      25      28      28      26      22
Hvn't hrd enough        22      24      27      24      21      25
REFUSED                  3       2       3       2       4       2
 
 
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (Read options)
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Terrorism                6%     16%      2%      4%      7%      5%      7%      -
The war in Iraq         20      12      25      21      17      22      19      21
The economy             48      43      51      49      51      46      48      51
Illegal immigration      9      17       4       8      12       6       9       3
Health care             11       6      14      11       8      14      10      19
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      4       3       3       4       3       4       4       2
DK/NA                    2       3       2       2       2       2       2       3
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Terrorism                7%      6%      4%
The war in Iraq         18      22      19
The economy             48      48      49
Illegal immigration     10       9       8
Health care             10      10      13
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      2       4       5
DK/NA                    4       1       1
 
 
7. When you decide how to vote for president, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate? (Read options)
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Trustworthy             29%     29%     23%     33%     27%     31%     28%     33%
Shares your values      16      22      13      13      16      16      17      12
A strong leader         31      29      36      29      30      32      29      40
Competent               20      18      22      21      22      18      21      10
Inspiring                3       2       3       4       4       2       3       2
DK/NA                    1       1       2       1       1       1       1       3
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Trustworthy             30%     25%     31%
Shares your values      17      15      17
A strong leader         30      29      33
Competent               18      25      16
Inspiring                2       4       2
DK/NA                    1       2       0
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve                 28%     63%      7%     23%     30%     25%     32%      6%
Disapprove              67      29      91      70      65      69      63      93
DK/NA                    5       8       2       7       5       5       6       1
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Approve                 31%     24%     27%
Disapprove              63      72      68
DK/NA                    6       4       6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 28% on 6/13/2007
                                                                 Highest Lowest
                                                                 Approve Approve
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 15   Jun 13  May 3   Dec 11  May 14
                        2008    2007    2007     2007    2007    2001    2008 *
 
Approve                 28      35      29       28      35       83     28
Disapprove              67      59      64       65      60       11     67
DK/NA                    5       7       7        7       6        6      5
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve                 16%     16%     18%     14%     16%     16%     16%     15%
Disapprove              76      77      74      78      81      72      76      78
DK/NA                    8       7       8       8       3      12       7       7
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Approve                 17%     15%     16%
Disapprove              76      75      77
DK/NA                    7      10       6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 16  Jun 13  May 3   Mar 6   May 14
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2003    2008
 
Approve                 16      21      20      23      39      42      16
Disapprove              76      70      70      66      52      46      76
DK/NA                    8      10      10      11       9      12       8
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve                 29%     66%      7%     25%     34%     24%     34%      3%
Disapprove              67      30      91      71      62      72      62      94
DK/NA                    4       4       2       5       3       4       4       3
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Approve                 35%     24%     27%
Disapprove              61      73      70
DK/NA                    5       3       3
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 16  Jun 13  May 3   Jul 24  Jun 13
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2003    2007
 
Approve                 29      31      29      25      31      52      25
Disapprove              67      65      67      70      64      43      70
DK/NA                    4       4       4       6       5       5       6
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve                 20%     48%      5%     15%     23%     18%     23%      5%
Disapprove              75      44      93      80      74      77      72      93
DK/NA                    4       8       1       5       4       5       5       2
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Approve                 23%     21%     16%
Disapprove              71      75      81
DK/NA                    7       3       3
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy?
                        May 14  Dec 16  May 26  May 5   Dec 10  Oct 29  Sep 17
                        2008    2004    2004    2004    2003    2003    2003
 
Approve                 20      42      42      41      46      39      44
Disapprove              75      53      52      52      50      55      50
DK/NA                    4       5       6       7       4       6       6
 
 
23. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Right thing             33%     69%     13%     27%     38%     29%     37%      8%
Wrong thing             62      26      84      67      57      66      58      86
DK/NA                    5       6       3       6       5       5       5       7
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Right thing             40%     27%     31%
Wrong thing             54      68      64
DK/NA                    5       5       5
 
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Right   Right
                        May 14  Oct 31  Aug 16  Jun 13  May 3   Sep 17  May 14
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2003    2008
 
Right                   33      38      35      37      39      58      33
Wrong                   62      55      59      57      55      37      62
DK/NA                    5       6       6       7       6       5       5
 
 
24. What should the United States do in Iraq? Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Withdraw all troops     22%      9%     31%     21%     19%     23%     17%     42%
Set a timetable         48      33      57      48      40      55      48      50
Keep troops as needed   28      57       9      27      37      19      32       6
DK/NA                    3       1       3       4       4       2       3       2
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Withdraw all troops     22%     22%     20%
Set a timetable         42      52      50
Keep troops as needed   32      24      26
DK/NA                    4       3       3
 
 
25. If Hillary Clinton is elected President, do you think the situation in Iraq will get better, better, get worse or stay about the same?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Get better              38%      9%     61%     37%     34%     42%     34%     51%
Get worse               27      58       7      25      32      23      31       9
Stay the same           29      27      28      32      30      27      29      37
DK/NA                    6       6       4       6       4       8       6       3
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Get better              34%     41%     41%
Get worse               30      26      25
Stay the same           30      28      27
DK/NA                    6       5       7
 
 
26. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think the situation in Iraq will get better, get worse or stay about the same?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Get better              39%     11%     59%     40%     37%     40%     34%     62%
Get worse               27      58       8      25      33      22      31       6
Stay the same           27      25      26      29      27      27      28      28
DK/NA                    7       6       7       6       4      10       7       5
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Get better              33%     42%     41%
Get worse               32      23      27
Stay the same           27      28      26
DK/NA                    8       7       6
 
 
27. If John McCain is elected President, do you think the situation in Iraq will get better, get worse or stay about the same?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Get better              22%     42%      8%     24%     26%     19%     26%      5%
Get worse               21       3      35      18      19      23      19      38
Stay the same           52      50      54      53      54      50      52      50
DK/NA                    5       4       2       5       2       7       4       7
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Get better              25%     18%     23%
Get worse               19      23      22
Stay the same           51      55      51
DK/NA                    5       4       4
 
 
34. Do you think Hillary Clinton should stay in the Presidential race, or do you think she should drop out?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Stay in                 56%     50%     63%     53%     52%     59%     56%     57%
Drop out                37      41      34      39      41      33      36      40
DK/NA                    7       9       3       8       6       8       8       4
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Stay in                 55%     53%     59%
Drop out                36      41      33
DK/NA                    9       5       7
 
                                        WHITES......................................
                                        Working
                        Age     Age     Class   College                 BrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     (NoCol) Degree  Men     Wom     Evngl   Cath
 
Stay in                 55%     57%     57%     53%     54%     59%     56%     63%
Drop out                42      35      34      41      40      33      36      32
DK/NA                    4       8       8       5       7       9       8       5
 
                        DEMS Q.1a....
                        Clin    Obama   IMP ISSUE TO VOTE..... /IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE.
                        Supp    Supp    War     Econ    HlthCr  Trust   Leader  Competent
 
Stay in                 95%     31%     52%     55%     62%     45%     64%     57%
Drop out                 5      65      44      38      31      45      31      37
DK/NA                    1       4       5       7       7      10       4       6
 
 
35. If Barack Obama wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, would you like him to pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice-Presidential running mate?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                     45%     25%     60%     43%     39%     50%     40%     62%
No                      47      66      33      47      54      40      50      35
DK/NA                    9       9       7       9       7      10      10       3
 
                        Red     Blue    Purple
 
Yes                     41%     45%     48%
No                      49      48      43
DK/NA                   11       6       9
 
                                        WHITES......................................
                                        Working
                        Age     Age     Class   College                 BrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     (NoCol) Degree  Men     Wom     Evngl   Cath
 
Yes                     47%     44%     44%     33%     36%     45%     39%     38%
No                      47      47      48      56      57      43      52      55
DK/NA                    6       9       9      11       7      12      10       7
 
                        DEMS Q.1a....
                        Clin    Obama     IMP ISSUE TO VOTE..... /IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE.
                        Supp    Supp      War     Econ    HlthCr  Trust   Leader  Competent
Yes
No                      71%     47%       50%     44%     61%     41%     51%     45%
DK/NA                   23      47        44      47      32      50      42      46
                         6       6         6       9       7       9       8       9