July 13, 2011 - Bachmann Surging In 2012 GOP Race As Romney Is Flat, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Obama Tops All Leading Republican Challengers

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Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, a relative newcomer in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, is surging and now trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 25 - 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has 12 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 10 percent. No other contender is over 6 percent.

This compares to a June 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 25 percent, Palin with 15 percent and Bachmann with 6 percent, sixth in a field of 10 candidates in the survey.

President Barack Obama tops all leading GOP White House hopefuls, hitting the all- important 50-percent mark against every candidate but Romney:
  • 47 - 41 percent over Romney, unchanged from June 8;
  • 50 - 38 percent over Bachmann, who was not matched against Obama June 8;
  • 53 - 34 percent over Sarah Palin, compared to 53 - 36 percent June 8;
  • 50 - 37 percent over Perry, who was not matched against Obama June 8.
"Gov. Mitt Romney remains ahead of the GOP presidential pack as U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann has zoomed into second place," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "With almost a dozen candidates and most of them not very well known, even to GOP activists, Gov. Romney's lead remains. Gov. Rick Perry, who is still a maybe candidate, breaks into double-digits and runs fourth, an indication that he could be a serious contender should he run."

"The question about Rep. Bachmann is whether she is the flavor of the month, like Donald Trump was for a while, or does she have staying power? Perhaps more than any of the other GOP contenders, Bachmann's fortunes may depend on whether Governors Palin or Perry get into the race. All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP's Tea Party constituency."

Rounding out the possible Republican presidential field are entrepreneur Herman Cain at 6 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5 percent, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 3 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan each at 1 percent or less.

If Perry does not run, Romney would lead with 28 percent, followed by Bachmann with 16 percent and Palin with 13 percent.

If Perry were to run, but not Palin, Romney would lead Bachmann 28 - 17 percent with Perry remaining at 10 percent.

"This would indicate that Romney and Bachmann would benefit most if Perry or Palin do not run," said Brown.

In the November matchups, Obama's margin over the Republican hopefuls stems from his huge margins among women voters that swamp the GOP candidates' small edge with men. For instance, matched against Romney, the president carries women 50 - 39 percent, but loses men by only 45 - 44 percent.

Against Bachmann, Obama leads 52 - 35 percent among women and 48 - 40 percent among men.

The same dynamic is at work when voters are asked if the president deserves a second term. While the overall number is a 47 - 47 percent dead heat, women think he deserves a second term 50 - 43 percent, while men think he does not by 51 - 43 percent.

"The gender gap is shaping up as a major factor in the 2012 presidential campaign, bigger perhaps than the 12-point swing in 2008," Brown said.

Among independent voters, Romney tops Obama 42 - 40 percent. But Obama leads among independents, a key voting group:
  • 46 - 36 percent over Perry;
  • 43 - 40 percent over Bachmann;
  • 50 - 33 percent over Palin.
From July 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,311 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary included 913 voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1.(Republicans and Republican Leaners) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Perry                10%    11%     9%
Palin                12     10     13 
Gingrich              5      5      5 
Romney               25     27     23 
Pawlenty              3      3      3 
Bachmann             14     15     12 
Santorum              1      1      2 
Paul                  5      8      3 
Huntsman              1      1      1 
Cain                  6      7      5 
McCotter              -      -      - 
DK/NA                18     12     25 
 
TREND: (Republicans and Republican Leaners) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote? (*na=not asked in survey reported)
                     REPUBLICANS...................
                     Jul 13  Jun 08  May 04  Nov 22
                     2011    2011    2011    2010
                             
Palin                12      15      15      19
Huckabee             na      na      15      17
Gingrich              5       8       5      15
Romney               25      25      18      18
Daniels              na      na       5       2
Pawlenty              3       5       4       6
Bachmann             14       6       4      na
Johnson              na       -       1      na
Santorum              1       4       1      na
Paul                  5       8       5      na
Huntsman              1       1       1      na
Trump                na      na      12      na
Barbour              na      na      na       2
Thune                na      na      na       2
Cain                  6       9      na      na
Perry                10      na      na      na
McCotter              -      na      na      na
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      na      na      na       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     na      na      na       1
DK/NA                18      20      15      17
                           
 
1b. (If voting for Perry q1) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Perry using second choice question)
                     WITHOUT PERRY....
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Palin                13%    11%    14%
Gingrich              5      6      5 
Romney               28     30     26 
Pawlenty              3      4      3 
Bachmann             16     18     14 
Santorum              1      1      2 
Paul                  6      8      4 
Huntsman              1      2      1 
Cain                  7      9      5 
McCotter              -      -      - 
DK/NA                18     12     25 
 
 
1c. (If voting for Palin q1) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Palin using second choice question)
                     WITHOUT PALIN....
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Perry                10%    11%     9%
Gingrich              6      6      5 
Romney               28     28     28 
Pawlenty              3      3      3 
Bachmann             17     18     16 
Santorum              1      1      2 
Paul                  6      9      3 
Huntsman              1      1      1 
Cain                  6      8      5 
McCotter              -      -      - 
DK/NA                22     15     28
 
 
2. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                50%     8%    88%    46%    47%    53%    42%    91%
Perry                37     80      5     36     41     33     44      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      3      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      3      1      2      2      -
DK/NA                10     10      6     12      8     11     10      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............  POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    <50    50-100 >100K  Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                62%    46%    48%    54%    49%    50%    82%    61%    18%
Perry                27     40     39     32     42     39     11     24     69
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2      3      2      1      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      1      2      1      1      1      2
DK/NA                 9      9      9     10      6      8      5     11      9
 
                            EDUCATION.... WHITE.............
                     Union  NoColl Coll   BrnAgn
                     HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl  Prot   Cath
 
Obama                57%    49%    53%    27%    33%    42%
Perry                30     38     35     60     53     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      2      2      2
DK/NA                 9     10      9     11      9     12
 
 
3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Michele Bachmann the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                50%    10%    88%    43%    48%    52%    43%    91%
Bachmann             38     80      6     40     40     35     45      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1      4      3      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      5      3      2      3      1
DK/NA                 7      6      5      8      6      8      8      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............  POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    <50    50-100 >100K  Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                60%    47%    49%    52%    51%    51%    85%    60%    18%
Bachmann             29     41     41     34     41     40      9     27     69
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1      3      2      2      1      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      2      2      3      2      1      3      3
DK/NA                 6      7      7      8      3      5      3      8      7
 
                            EDUCATION.... WHITE.............
                     Union  NoColl Coll   BrnAgn
                     HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl  Prot   Cath
 
Obama                58%    48%    55%    26%    33%    44%
Bachmann             33     39     34     60     53     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2      2      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      2      3      3      3
DK/NA                 5      7      7      8      8      7
 
 
4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                47%     7%    86%    40%    44%    50%    39%    90%
Romney               41     86      8     42     45     39     49      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      3      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      4      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 7      5      5     10      6      8      8      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............  POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    <50    50-100 >100K  Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                59%    43%    45%    51%    46%    46%    84%    55%    17%
Romney               34     45     44     36     47     46     10     34     72
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      1      2      2      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      2      2      1      1      1      1      3
DK/NA                 5      6      8      8      4      5      4      8      7
 
                            EDUCATION.... WHITE.............
                     Union  NoColl Coll   BrnAgn
                     HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl  Prot   Cath
 
Obama                54%    46%    50%    23%    30%    38%
Romney               37     42     40     67     58     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      2      2      1
DK/NA                 5      7      6      6      7      9
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 13  Jun 08  Nov 22
                     2011    2011    2010
                             
Obama                47      47      44
Romney               41      41      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2
DK/NA                 7       6       7
 
 
5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                53%    13%    88%    50%    50%    56%    47%    88%
Palin                34     73      5     33     37     31     40      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      1      4      3      3      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      1      6      4      3      4      -
DK/NA                 6      5      5      7      6      7      6      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............  POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    <50    50-100 >100K  Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                64%    50%    51%    55%    52%    57%    85%    66%    21%
Palin                26     37     36     32     39     30     10     21     64
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      2      3      3      -      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      5      3      4      5      2      4      5
DK/NA                 4      6      6      7      2      5      3      6      7
 
                            EDUCATION.... WHITE.............
                     Union  NoColl Coll   BrnAgn
                     HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl  Prot   Cath
 
Obama                60%    50%    59%    28%    36%    50%
Palin                30     36     29     57     50     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3      3      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      4      5      4      4
DK/NA                 4      7      5      7      8      5
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 13  Jun 08  Nov 22
                     2011    2011    2010
                             
Obama                53      53      48
Palin                34      36      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       3       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       4       3
DK/NA                 6       4       4
 
 
9. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/deserves         47%     9%    84%    38%    43%    50%    39%    86%
No/does not          47     87     11     51     51     43     54     11
DK/NA                 7      4      5     11      7      7      7      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............  POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    <50    50-100 >100K  Lib    Mod    Con
 
Yes/deserves         57%    44%    45%    49%    47%    45%    82%    55%    17%
No/does not          37     50     47     44     46     51     15     36     79
DK/NA                 5      6      8      6      7      4      3      9      5
 
                            EDUCATION.... WHITE.............
                     Union  NoColl Coll   BrnAgn
                     HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl  Prot   Cath
 
Yes/deserves         52%    45%    49%    24%    31%    39%
No/does not          41     48     45     69     62     53
DK/NA                 7      7      6      7      6      8
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? (*Low also 40% Mar 2010)
                                     BIN LADEN DEATH         YES DESERVES...
                                     Post    Pre             High    Low
                     Jul 13  Jun 08  May 05  May 05  Mar 30  Jul 13  Jul 21
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2010*
                                                                     
Yes/deserves         47      46      46      45      41      47      40
No/does not          47      48      42      48      50      47      48
DK/NA                 7       6      11       6       9       7      12
 

Demographic Summary