October 2, 2013 - Clinton Sweeps Dems, Tops Republicans In 2016 Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; American Voters Say 3-1 Keep Guns Out Of Starbucks
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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dominates the 2016 presidential field, winning the support of 61 percent of Democrats and holding double-digit leads over leading Republican contenders, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Among Democrats, Clinton tops Vice President Joseph Biden 61 - 11 percent, with 7 percent for U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and 2 percent for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. No other candidate tops 1 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University poll finds.

The Republican field is more mixed, with 17 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, 13 percent for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, 12 percent for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, 11 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 10 percent each for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

In womano-a-mano matchups, Clinton tops leading Republicans:
  • 49 - 36 percent over Christie;
  • 53 - 36 percent over Paul;
  • 54 - 31 percent over Cruz.
"As she watches the hand-to-hand political combat in Washington, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains above the fray and the queen of the 2016 mountain," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Recent rumblings about a Vice President Joseph Biden candidacy aside, she is six times better among democrats than is he and in head-to-head matchups with Republicans she dominates. We've got a long way to 2016, but at this point she looks very very strong."

"The race for the GOP nomination remains wide open with a handful of candidates bunched together in low double-digits," Brown added. "Sen. Ted Cruz' high-profile role opposing Obamacare has added him to that group, but he probably will have to find other ways to keep his star rising.

"Over the last several months, Sen. Marco Rubio's star has fallen a bit and Sen. Rand Paul's has risen a bit, while Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. Christopher Christie and Congressman Paul Ryan have essentially been flickering in place." Gun Control

American voters support background checks for all gun-buyers 89 - 9 percent, basically unchanged from the results of several Quinnipiac University polls conducted in the months after the Sandy Hook massacre. Voters in households where there is a gun support background checks 88 - 11 percent, with no group falling below 80 percent on this measure.

Voters support stricter gun control laws generally 54 - 41 percent, with voters in gun households opposed 56 - 40 percent.

But voters say 61 - 32 percent that stricter gun laws would not have prevented the Washington Navy Yard massacre last month.

Voters support 66 - 23 percent, including 52 - 35 percent in gun households, Starbucks' request that customers not bring guns into their stores. Starbucks' request makes them more likely to sip there, 15 percent say, while 11 percent say less likely and 72 percent say it won't make a difference in where they get their coffee.

"Americans somewhat favor more gun control but more than three in five say stricter gun control would not have stopped the Washington Navy Yard shooter," Brown said.

"Two-thirds of voters prefer their Starbucks coffee without a shot as they back the coffee- seller's plea to keep guns out of the store."

From September 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,497 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

2a. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz, for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    TeaParty
 
Bush                 11%    13%     9%     7%
Rubio                12     10     13     10
Ryan                 10     10     10     14
Walker                4      5      2      1
Christie             13     11     15      2
Jindal                3      3      3      4
Paul                 17     18     17     22
Cruz                 10     13      7     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      -
DK/NA                19     15     22     18
 
TREND: (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS
                     Oct 02  Apr 03
                     2013    2013
 
Bush                 11      10
Rubio                12      19
Ryan                 10      17
Walker                4       2
Christie             13      14
Jindal                3       3
Paul                 17      15
Cruz                 10      na
McDonnell            na       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       -
DK/NA                19      18
 
 
2b. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner and Martin O'Malley, for whom would you vote?
                     DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              61%    54%    66%
Biden                11     15      8
Cuomo                 2      4      1
Warren                7      9      5
Warner                1      1      1
O'Malley              -      1      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1
DK/NA                15     14     16
 
TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner and Martin O'Malley, for whom would you vote?
                     DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
                     Oct 02  May 02
                     2013    2013
 
Clinton              61      65
Biden                11      13
Cuomo                 2       4
Warren                7      na
Warner                1       1
O'Malley              -       1
Patrick              na       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       -
DK/NA                15      14
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Clinton              49%     9%    88%    40%    45%    52%    41%    85%    59%
Christie             36     77      8     38     39     33     42     10     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      -      6      5      2      3      1      5
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      1      5      5      2      4      -      4
DK/NA                 9      7      3     11      7     11     10      5      5
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              79%    53%    24%    57%    45%    41%    47%    51%    51%    46%
Christie              9     33     59     29     41     44     31     35     35     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      5      3      4      3      7      3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      4      3      3      5      2      3      5      4
DK/NA                 7      9      8      8      7      7     13      8      6      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* Christopher Christie)
                     Oct 02  Jul 12  Mar 07
                     2013    2013    2013*
 
Clinton              49      46      45
Christie             36      40      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       4
DK/NA                 9       8      12
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Clinton              53%    13%    93%    43%    47%    58%    45%    88%    63%
Paul                 36     79      4     39     42     30     42      4     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      3      2      2      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      5      4      2      3      1      3
DK/NA                 6      5      2     10      5      8      7      4      3
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              86%    60%    23%    58%    48%    52%    57%    51%    56%    49%
Paul                  9     25     66     30     45     37     25     38     36     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      2      3      1      4      6      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      1      3      2      3      3      3      2      3
DK/NA                 1      8      7      6      4      5     10      6      4      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Oct 02  Jul 12  May 31
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Clinton              53      50      49
Paul                 36      38      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2
DK/NA                 6       7       6
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Clinton              54%    14%    92%    48%    49%    58%    47%    87%    66%
Cruz                 31     76      3     29     36     27     37      4     27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      -      4      4      2      3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      5      4      2      3      -      4
DK/NA                 9      7      4     14      7     11     10      7      2
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              89%    61%    25%    60%    51%    51%    55%    53%    58%    51%
Cruz                  6     20     62     26     38     35     21     31     32     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      4      2      3      2      4      7      3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      1      3      1      3      2      3      2      3
DK/NA                 2     12      9      8      8      7     15     10      6      7
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            56%    17%    90%    52%    50%    62%    50%    85%    68%
Unfavorable          36     74      4     39     42     31     43      7     21
Hvn't hrd enough      6      8      5      7      7      6      5      8     10
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      2      2      2      1      1
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            90%    64%    25%    59%    53%    56%    62%    56%    58%    51%
Unfavorable           7     26     66     31     39     41     25     38     35     42
Hvn't hrd enough      2      7      8      8      6      2     10      5      5      5
REFUSED               1      3      1      2      2      1      3      1      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 02  Jul 12  May 31  Feb 08  May 14  Feb 08  May 03
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2008    2013    2007
 
Favorable            56      55      52      61      47      61      44
Unfavorable          36      38      40      34      44      34      46
Hvn't hrd enough      6       5       7       4       7       4       7
REFUSED               2       2       1       1       2       1       3
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            30%    56%     8%    32%    36%    24%    34%     8%    25%
Unfavorable          33     13     54     29     34     32     34     35     22
Hvn't hrd enough     37     30     38     38     29     43     32     56     48
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      1      -      1      4
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            10%    21%    51%    24%    35%    36%    31%    30%    29%    30%
Unfavorable          64     34     13     30     32     41     24     33     36     35
Hvn't hrd enough     24     44     35     46     31     22     45     37     34     35
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      2      -      -      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Oct 02  Jul 12  May 31
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            30      31      32
Unfavorable          33      28      24
Hvn't hrd enough     37      39      42
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            40%    43%    40%    44%    38%    42%    45%    26%    18%
Unfavorable          22     21     21     22     28     17     21     28     22
Hvn't hrd enough     36     35     37     32     32     40     32     44     58
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      1      2      2      2      1
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            49%    46%    33%    32%    46%    55%    30%    36%    45%    46%
Unfavorable          28     15     25     19     24     27     20     25     24     18
Hvn't hrd enough     21     37     41     47     28     17     49     38     30     32
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      -      1      1      1      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Oct 02  Jul 12  Oct 05
                     2013    2013    2011
 
Favorable            40      45      23
Unfavorable          22      18      17
Hvn't hrd enough     36      34      59
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            16%    37%     2%    15%    19%    14%    19%     2%     8%
Unfavorable          25      9     39     27     30     20     26     25     21
Hvn't hrd enough     58     53     58     57     50     65     54     73     69
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable             2%     7%    35%    11%    20%    21%     6%    17%    17%    20%
Unfavorable          54     25      7     22     25     36     17     24     29     28
Hvn't hrd enough     43     67     57     66     54     43     77     59     53     49
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      -      -      1      -      2
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            48%     7%    85%    41%    45%    50%    40%    87%    48%
Unfavorable          49     89     11     55     52     45     57      9     42
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      2      2      2      2      1      2      7
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      2      2      2      1      3
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Lib    Mod    Con    <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            78%    55%    19%    52%    40%    51%    46%    47%    50%    45%
Unfavorable          18     40     78     44     58     46     49     50     45     50
Hvn't hrd enough      -      2      3      2      1      2      2      2      3      1
REFUSED               3      2      -      3      1      1      3      1      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 02  Jul 12  May 30  Feb 08  Jul 11  Nov 12  Oct 05
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2012    2008    2011
 
Favorable            48      47      48      51      45      67      42
Unfavorable          49      49      49      46      48      19      53
Hvn't hrd enough      2       2       2       2       4      11       3
REFUSED               2       3       1       2       4       3       3
 
 
42. Do you support or oppose stricter gun control laws in the United States?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    GunHsHld
 
Support              54%    28%    82%    47%    46%    62%    40%
Oppose               41     66     13     50     51     32     56
DK/NA                 5      6      4      4      3      6      4
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   Urban  Suburb Rural
 
Support              66%    50%    54%    47%    60%    56%    45%
Oppose               30     47     41     45     37     39     49
DK/NA                 4      3      5      7      3      5      7
 
TREND: Do you support or oppose stricter gun control laws in the United States?
                     Oct 02  Apr 04  Mar 07  Feb 07  Jul 17
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2008
 
Support              54      53      51      52      54
Oppose               41      42      42      43      40
DK/NA                 5       4       7       5       5
 
 
43. Do you support or oppose requiring background checks for all gun buyers?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    GunHsHld
 
Support              89%    82%    95%    89%    87%    91%    88%
Oppose                9     17      4     10     13      7     11
DK/NA                 1      1      2      -      -      2      1
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   Urban  Suburb Rural
 
Support              95%    87%    87%    90%    90%    93%    85%
Oppose                4     12     12      7      9      6     13
DK/NA                 1      -      1      3      1      1      2
 
TREND: Do you support or oppose requiring background checks for all gun buyers?
                     Oct 02  Apr 04  Mar 07  Feb 07
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Support              89      91      88      92
Oppose                9       8      10       7
DK/NA                 1       1       2       1
 
 
44. Do you support or oppose laws to prevent people with mental illness from purchasing guns?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    GunHsHld
 
Support              88%    89%    88%    86%    88%    87%    89%
Oppose                9      7      9     10      8      9      8
DK/NA                 3      4      3      4      3      3      3
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   Urban  Suburb Rural
 
Support              89%    86%    89%    87%    86%    90%    88%
Oppose                9      9      9      8     12      6      8
DK/NA                 2      5      2      5      2      4      4
 
 
45. Do you think stricter gun control laws could have prevented the mass killing at the Washington Navy Yard or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    GunHsHld
 
Yes                  32%    17%    48%    24%    25%    37%    19%
No                   61     80     40     68     68     54     77
DK/NA                 7      3     11      8      6      9      5
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   Urban  Suburb Rural
 
Yes                  40%    29%    32%    26%    36%    31%    26%
No                   51     64     61     65     57     62     66
DK/NA                 9      6      7      9      8      7      8
 
 
46. As you may know, Starbucks is asking customers to not bring guns into its stores. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad idea?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    GunHsHld
 
Good idea            66%    41%    85%    66%    59%    73%    52%
Bad idea             23     44     11     19     30     17     35
DK/NA                11     15      4     14     12     10     13
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   Urban  Suburb Rural
 
Good idea            70%    64%    65%    66%    69%    67%    60%
Bad idea             18     27     24     21     20     20     30
DK/NA                12      9     11     13     11     13      9
 
 
47. Have you gone to Starbucks within the past year?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    GunHsHld
 
Yes                  50%    51%    50%    50%    50%    51%    50%
No                   49     49     48     50     49     48     50
DK/NA                 1      -      2      -      1      1      -
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   Urban  Suburb Rural
 
Yes                  50%    45%    48%    60%    46%    64%    42%
No                   49     55     51     38     54     36     57
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2      1      -      1
 
 
48. Does Starbucks asking customers to not bring guns into its stores make you more likely to go to a Starbucks store, less likely to go to a Starbucks store, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    GunHsHld
 
More likely          15%     5%    24%    12%    10%    20%     9%
Less likely          11     22      3     10     14      9     17
No difference        72     70     72     77     74     70     73
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     REGION...................   DENSITY............
                     NEast  MWest  South  West   Urban  Suburb Rural
 
More likely          15%    13%    19%    12%    19%    14%    12%
Less likely           9     13     11     12     11     11     13
No difference        75     72     70     74     70     75     72
DK/NA                 2      2      1      2      1      -      4
 
 

Demographic Summary