January 26, 2004 - Kerry Stands Tallest Among Dem Contenders, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Kerry Is 'Presidential' And Nipping At Bush's Heels
In the see-saw Democratic Presidential primary campaign, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has jumped into the lead with 30 percent of Democrats, 13 points ahead of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean who has 17 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Dean led the Democratic pack with 22 percent in a December 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when Kerry had 8 percent.

In this latest nationwide poll, while all eyes are on New Hampshire, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and former Gen. Wesley Clark get 14 percent each, followed by Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 8 percent. No other candidate tops 4 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

"The good news 'bounce' has Sen. Kerry on top. And this bounce isn't limited to the small crowds at the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire polls. Democrats all over the land have decided - this week at least - that they like Kerry," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"More and more it looks as if the marathon will continue at least through the March 2 'Super Tuesday' primaries in 13 states, including New York and Connecticut.

"But President Bush still leads any Democrat, but Kerry is closing."

Kerry will get the nomination, 45 percent of American voters, including 45 percent of Democrats, predict. But Bush will get reelected, 62 percent of all voters say.

Kerry has the personality and temperament to serve as President, all voters say 61 - 22 percent. In this key indicator, Edwards is the only other Democratic contender to hit 50 percent, while Dean gets a negative 36 - 48 percent.

"Americans watched Dean's hyper speech in Iowa and they now question his Presidential temperament. Just as in the overall vote, this is a high mark for Kerry," Carroll said.

American voters approve 53 - 40 percent of the job Bush is doing, compared to a 51 - 43 percent approval rating December 10.

In possible 2004 presidential matchups, Bush edges Kerry 49 - 45 percent, compared to 51 - 39 percent December 10. Bush's lead over other Democrats is:
  • 54 - 38 percent over Dean;
  • 50 - 42 percent over Edwards;
  • 51 - 41 percent over Clark;
  • 53 - 39 percent over Lieberman;
  • 61 - 29 percent over Rev. Al Sharpton;
  • 59 - 30 percent over Dennis Kucinich.
The economy is more important than Iraq in deciding how they will vote, Americans say 67 - 22 percent. And voters say 51 - 41 percent that a Democratic administration will do a better job on the economy, while voters say 51 - 40 percent that Bush will do a better job on Iraq.

Going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do, voters say 52 - 40 percent.

From January 21 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,278 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The survey includes 406 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service a d for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Jan 26, 2004 53% 40% 8% Dec 10, 2003 51 43 6 Oct 29, 2003 51 42 7 Sep 17,2003 53 39 7 Jul 24, 2003 53 41 6 Jun 11, 2003 57 35 8 Apr 16, 2003 73 22 5 Mar 6, 2003 53 39 8 Feb 4, 2003 54 39 7 Nov 13, 2002 62 30 8 Feb 22, 2002 76 16 8 Dec 11, 2001 83 11 6



TREND: Now I'm going to name seven Democrats running for president this year. After I read all seven names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president this year. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?

               Jan     Dec     Oct     Sep     Jul     Jun    Mar    Feb
               2004    2003    2003    2003    2003    2003   2003   2003
                                       
Lieberman       8%     13%     13%     14%     21%     22%    21%    27%   
Kerry          30       8      10      13      13      15     12     18    
Gephardt       na       9      12      13      16      17     17     16    
Edwards        14       5       8       7       4       5      8     14    
Dean           17      22      13      14      10       5      4      3    
Sharpton        4       8       5       4       6       5      5      6    
Graham         na      na      na       4       3       6      6     na    
Moseley-Braun  na       3       3       7       4       4      7     na
Kucinich        1       2       3       2       2       1      2     na
Clark          14      12      17      na      na      na     na     na
DK/NA          12      18      17      21      21      21     18     16




1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 53 89 20 50 56 49 Disapprove 40 6 73 40 37 42 DK/NA 8 5 7 11 7 9



2. Now I'm going to name seven Democrats running for president this year. After I read all seven names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president this year. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?

                       Dem


Lieberman 8% Kerry 30 Edwards 14 Dean 17 Sharpton 4 Kucinich 1 Clark 14 DK/NA 12



3. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clark 41% 6% 73% 44% 38% 44% Bush 51 92 16 47 56 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 1 6 7 3 7



4. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Lieberman 39% 7% 76% 36% 35% 44% Bush 53 91 16 53 57 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 3 1 DK/NA 5 2 4 7 4 5



5. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 45% 7% 81% 47% 43% 47% Bush 49 89 13 45 53 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 3 6



6. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Dean 38% 5% 71% 40% 36% 41% Bush 54 92 18 51 56 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 5 2 5 5 4 5



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Edwards 42% 8% 77% 42% 40% 43% Bush 50 90 16 45 53 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 6 1 5 9 5 7



8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Al Sharpton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Sharpton 29% 4% 57% 24% 26% 31% Bush 61 94 28 62 66 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 9 5 4 5 DK/NA 5 1 5 7 3 6



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dennis Kucinich the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kucinich 30% 3% 62% 26% 28% 33% Bush 59 95 24 59 63 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 6 4 4 3 DK/NA 6 1 7 10 4 8



10. Do you think George W. Bush will be reelected President or not?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 62% 87% 40% 59% 68% 56% No 30 6 49 32 25 34 DK/NA 9 6 10 9 7 10



11. Who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Joe Lieberman 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% John Kerry 45 46 45 46 50 40 John Edwards 8 7 8 6 8 7 Howard Dean 12 10 15 10 14 10 Al Sharpton 1 1 1 1 1 1 Dennis Kucinich - - - - - - Wesley Clark 4 2 5 4 4 4 OTHER - - - 1 - - DK/NA 28 31 23 29 20 35



12. Did the Iowa caucuses change your mind about which candidate you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for President?

                       Democrats


Yes 17% No 76 DK/NA 7



13. (IF "Yes" q12) Which candidate did you want to see the Democrats nominate for President before the Iowa caucuses?

                       "Yes"q12
                       Democrats


Lieberman 8% Kerry 5 Edwards 11 Dean 40 Sharpton - Kucinich 1 Clark 6 Gephardt 12 DK/NA 17



14. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 15% 31% 3% 10% 17% 13% Smwht satisfied 36 54 19 36 39 34 Smwht dissatisfied 25 10 38 29 22 28 Very dissatisfied 23 4 41 24 22 24 DK/NA 1 2 - - 1 1



15. Who do you think would do a better job on the economy - the current Bush administration or a new Democratic administration?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush administration 41% 83% 8% 33% 46% 36% Dem administration 51 10 87 55 49 53 DK/NA 8 7 5 11 6 11



16. Who do you think would do a better job on Iraq - the current Bush administration or a new Democratic administration?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush administration 51% 90% 17% 46% 56% 46% Dem administration 40 6 73 42 36 44 DK/NA 9 4 10 12 7 10



17. Which issue will matter more in deciding how you vote for President this year -- Iraq or the economy?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Iraq 22% 26% 17% 24% 23% 21% Economy 67 60 76 65 68 66 DK/NA 11 14 7 11 9 13



18. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 52% 84% 26% 48% 58% 47% Wrong thing 40 10 67 43 36 45 DK/NA 7 5 7 9 6 8



19. Do you think that Joe Lieberman has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 49% 41% 58% 50% 53% 45% No 34 45 23 35 35 34 DK/NA 17 14 19 15 12 21



20. Do you think that John Kerry has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 61% 48% 74% 63% 65% 58% No 22 33 10 22 23 20 DK/NA 17 18 16 16 11 22



21. Do you think that John Edwards has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 50% 36% 62% 52% 52% 48% No 26 38 18 25 29 24 DK/NA 24 26 21 23 19 28



22. Do you think that Howard Dean has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 36% 18% 54% 37% 36% 37% No 48 65 30 49 53 43 DK/NA 16 17 15 14 12 21



23. Do you think that Al Sharpton has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 18% 7% 27% 16% 18% 17% No 64 76 52 67 70 59 DK/NA 18 17 20 16 12 24



24. Do you think that Dennis Kucinich has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 16% 7% 23% 19% 18% 15% No 46 55 36 51 52 41 DK/NA 37 38 42 31 30 44



25. Do you think that Wesley Clark has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 45% 28% 57% 51% 50% 41% No 33 48 21 32 36 31 DK/NA 21 24 22 18 14 28



26. (If Democrat) When the Democratic party nominates its Presidential candidate, which quality do you think should be more important - the candidate's ability to defeat George W. Bush or the candidate's views on the issues?

                               Democrats
                               
Ability to defeat Bush         24% 
Views on the issues            72  
DK/NA                           5