November 2, 2009 - New Jersey Gov Race Tips To Christie By 2 Points, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Daggett Voters Key As Race Is Too Close To Call

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In the see-saw New Jersey Governor's race, Republican challenger Christopher Christie has 42 percent to Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's 40 points, with 12 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided.

This compares to a 43 - 38 percent Gov. Corzine lead, with 13 percent for Daggett, in an October 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Among Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they might change their mind: 39 percent say Corzine is their second choice, while 29 percent say Christie is number two.

Only 10 percent of Christie voters and 13 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.

Corzine leads 77 - 6 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 12 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 78 - 10 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and 47 - 32 percent among independent voters, with 17 percent for Daggett.

"Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

From October 27 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,533 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? (If Already Voted q1) Did you vote for Corzine, Christie or Daggett? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Corzine              40%    10%    77%    32%    36%    44%
Christie             42     78      6     47     47     37
Daggett              12      9     12     17     12     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      3      6      4      4      8
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Corzine              53%    46%    28%    42%    29%
Christie             30     37     58     35     52
Daggett               8     11     11     13     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      7      3      8      4
 
 
1a. (If candidate choice given q1, excludes already voted) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Made up              85%    88%    85%    81%    85%    85%
Might change         15     12     14     19     15     15
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     CAND CHOICE Q1....
                     Corz   Chris  Dagg
 
Made up              86%    90%    61%
Might change         13     10     38
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
1b. (If voting for Daggett q1) Who is your second choice for Governor?
                     DAGGETT VOTERS Q1
 
Corzine              39%
Christie             29
Someone else          7
No one/wldn't vote   17
DK/NA                 8
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    70%    12%    42%    45%    36%
Unfavorable          40     13     66     42     38     41
Hvn't hrd enough     16     15     20     13     13     19
REFUSED               4      2      2      4      4      4
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            35%    34%    49%    36%    55%
Unfavorable          41     45     33     42     32
Hvn't hrd enough     23     18     14     17      9
REFUSED               2      3      5      5      4
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    14%    70%    30%    37%    41%
Unfavorable          53     83     19     64     56     49
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      6      3      3      5
REFUSED               4      1      6      3      4      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            50%    45%    30%    38%    28%
Unfavorable          40     47     68     48     63
Hvn't hrd enough      8      4      -      7      4
REFUSED               2      4      3      8      5
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            23%    21%    20%    29%    25%    21%
Unfavorable          17     25     12     15     20     15
Hvn't hrd enough     57     52     66     54     53     62
REFUSED               3      2      3      2      2      3
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            22%    21%    22%    20%    28%
Unfavorable          19     16     26     13     15
Hvn't hrd enough     57     61     48     63     55
REFUSED               2      2      3      4      3