September 25, 2013 - Dem Stalled As Christie Cruises At 2-1 In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gov Tops Buono 2-1 On Every Measure
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New Jersey State Sen. Barbara Buono, the Democrat challenging Gov. Christopher Christie for reelection, is making no progress and trails the popular Republican 64 - 30 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today.

This is the first survey of likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University in the general election campaign and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

Christie leads 61 - 32 percent among women and 69 - 26 percent among men, 94 - 3 percent among Republicans and 69 - 23 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Sen. Buono 60 - 35 percent.

Only 5 percent of likely voters are undecided and another 8 percent who name a candidate say there is a "good chance" they will change their mind in the next six weeks.

"There's no silver lining for State Sen. Barbara Buono in the cloudy outlook for her campaign," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Even a third of Democrats prefer Gov. Christopher Christie. And, although the Buono campaign and Buono's political background are big on women's issues, even women favor Christie. So do men. There's not even a very big gender gap.

"But the good news for the Gov comes to a screeching halt at the tip of his coattails. If he wants to run for president, a compliant State Legislature in Trenton would help. But 15 percent of New Jersey voters say Christie's support would make them less likely to vote for a legislative candidate and 61 percent say it would make no difference in their vote.

New Jersey likely voters give Christie a 67 - 27 percent favorability, including a split 45 - 47 percent favorability among Democrats.

Buono gets a negative 23 - 36 percent favorability, with 40 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion.

Christie also leads on enthusiasm, as 57 percent of his supporters are "very enthusiastic," with 33 percent "somewhat enthusiastic. Only 35 percent of Buono supports are "very enthusiastic," with 47 percent "somewhat enthusiastic."

The governor would do a better job than the challenger controlling property taxes, voters say 62 - 19 percent. Democrats are divided as 38 percent pick Buono and 35 percent name Christie.

Christie also would do a better job improving the state's economy, voters say 65 - 22 percent, with Democrats backing Buono 45 - 38 percent.

"A lot of New Jersey voters still don't know Sen. Barbara Buono," Carroll said. "That could be a good thing because among those who know her, more don't like her.

"Christie dominates the challenger 3-1 or more on two important issues, property taxes and the economy, getting a respectable share of Democratic support as well."

The Republican governor should run for president in 2016, 43 percent of voters say, while 41 percent say he should not run. But 76 percent say the possibility that Christie will run does not affect their vote for governor this year.

If Christie does run for president in 2016, it will be good for New Jersey, voters say 53 - 28 percent.

"New Jerseyans are mixed about sending their popular governor on the campaign trail in 2016, but it won't stop them from voting for him in 2013," Carroll said.

From September 19 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,249 New Jersey likely voters in the November 5 general election, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Buono or Christie? (Table includes leaners) (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Buono                30%     3%    60%    23%    26%    32%    25%    55%
Christie             64     94     35     69     69     61     70     36
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    1      -      1      2      1      1      1      4
DK/NA                 5      2      5      5      4      6      4      5
 
 
2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot   Buono   Christie
 
Def vote for cand    86%    85%    86%
Unlikely to change    5      6      4
Good chance change    8      6      8
DK/NA                 1      2      1
 
 
2b. (If candidate chosen q2) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot   Buono   Christie
 
Very enthusiastic    50%    35%    57%
Somewht enthusiastic 37     47     33
Not so enthusiastic   8     11      6
Not enthus at all     4      5      4
DK/NA                 1      2      -
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Favorable            67%    95%    45%    67%    72%    63%    71%    44%
Unfavorable          27      4     47     27     24     30     26     44
Hvn't hrd enough      2      1      4      1      2      2      1      7
REFUSED               4      -      4      5      3      5      3      6
 
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Barbara Buono favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Favorable            23%     3%    44%    20%    22%    24%    20%    34%
Unfavorable          36     58     10     40     41     30     40     17
Hvn't hrd enough     40     37     44     40     36     44     39     47
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1
 
 
5. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job controlling property taxes, Chris Christie or Barbara Buono?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Christie             62%    90%    35%    65%    67%    57%
Buono                19      3     38     16     18     21 
DK/NA                19      7     27     19     15     22 
 
 
6. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job improving the state's economy, Chris Christie or Barbara Buono?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Christie             65%    93%    38%    67%    69%    61%
Buono                22      3     45     18     21     24 
DK/NA                12      4     17     15     10     14 
 
 
7. If Chris Christie supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          22%    52%    11%    12%    21%    23%
Less likely          15      3     26     14     13     16 
No difference        61     44     61     73     65     58 
DK/NA                 2      2      2      1      1      3 
 
 
8. If Barbara Buono supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          10%     2%    21%     6%     8%    11%
Less likely          20     40      4     17     23     17 
No difference        67     54     70     76     66     68 
DK/NA                 3      4      5      1      3      4 
 
 
9. Do you think Chris Christie should or should not run for President in 2016?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Should               43%    60%    29%    43%    45%    40%
Should not           41     25     57     39     40     43 
DK/NA                16     14     14     18     14     17 
 
 
10. If Chris Christie did run for President in 2016, do you think that would be good or bad for New Jersey?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Good                 53%    67%    41%    55%    60%    48%
Bad                  28     21     38     23     24     31 
DK/NA                19     12     21     21     16     21 
 
 
11. Does the possibility that Chris Christie will run for President in 2016 make you more likely to vote for Christie for Governor, less likely to vote for Christie for Governor, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY GOVERNOR RACE VOTERS...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          11%    18%     9%     9%    10%    12%
Less likely          12      2     19     11     12     12 
No difference        76     79     70     79     78     74 
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      1      2 
 
 

Demographic Summary