October 29, 2013 - Run, Christie, Run, New Jersey Voters Tell Gov, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; With Huge Reelection Lead, White House Beckons
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As New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie cruises to a 2-1 reelection victory, Garden State likely voters say 48 - 41 percent that they would like to see the Republican incumbent run for president in 2016, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Gov. Christie tops State Sen. Barbara Buono, the Democratic challenger, 64 - 31 percent in his reelection bid, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This 2-1 margin has been basically unchanged throughout the campaign.

There is no gender gap, as Christie holds 2-1 leads among both men and women. He leads 95 - 3 percent among Republicans and 72 - 22 percent among independent voters and even gets 31 percent of Democrats to Buono's 63 percent.

Five percent of New Jersey likely voters remain undecided and another 5 percent say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind by next Tuesday.

Christie gets a 65 - 29 percent favorability rating, as even 40 percent of Democrats have a favorable opinion. Sen. Buono gets a negative 26 - 37 percent favorability rating, with 35 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion.

"From the banks of the Delaware to the beaches of the Atlantic, New Jersey voters like their governor, Christopher Christie. On the banks of the Potomac? Less like the governor, but still a lot" said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Voters in his own state are split over whether Christie would make a good President and only about half think he ought to run. He's near the top in all the national polls. But not with his Garden State neighbors.

"The election looks like a runaway. Even almost a third of Democrats pick Christie over State Sen. Barbara Buono. She's been an energetic campaigner, but more than a third of voters don't know enough about her to decide whether or not they like her," Carroll added.

New Jersey likely voters are divided 42 - 43 percent on whether Christie would make a good president. Republicans say yes 71 - 17 percent while Democrats say no 70 - 19 percent. Independent voters are divided as 43 percent say yes and 39 percent say no.

Looking at the number two spot in the state, 72 percent of voters don't know enough about Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno to say if she's ready to step up if Christie goes to Washington. For Milly Silva, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, 84 percent don't know enough.

"The lieutenant governor moves up if the governor moves out, but hardly anyone knows either of the candidates, even Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who's had the job for four years," Carroll said.

From October 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,203 New Jersey likely voters in the election for governor, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Buono or Christie? (Table includes leaners) (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Buono                31%     3%    63%    22%    30%    31%    25%    61%
Christie             64     95     31     72     64     64     71     29
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    1      -      -      2      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 5      1      5      4      5      4      3     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34* 35-54  55+
 
Buono                37%    26%    34%    31%    29%    46%    32%    26%
Christie             59     67     60     64     67     48     62     69
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    1      1      1      -      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 3      6      4      4      3      4      5      4
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Buono or Christie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Buono                31      33      33      30
Christie             64      62      62      64
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    1       -       1       1
DK/NA                 5       5       4       5
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Buono   Christie
 
Def vote for cand    85%    85%    85%
Unlikely to change    8      6      9
Good chance change    5      7      5
DK/NA                 2      3      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    85      87      87      86
Unlikely to change    8       6       6       5
Good chance change    5       6       7       8
DK/NA                 2       1       1       1
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Buono   Christie
 
Very enthusiastic    39%    29%    44%
Somewht enthusiastic 47     52     44
Not so enthusiastic   8     11      7
Not enthus at all     5      7      3
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Very enthusiastic    39      48      48      50
Somewht enthusiastic 47      39      41      37
Not so enthusiastic   8       9       7       8
Not enthus at all     5       4       3       4
DK/NA                 1       1       -       1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            65%    92%    40%    71%    66%    65%    71%    46%
Unfavorable          29      6     52     27     29     29     27     47
Hvn't hrd enough      2      -      4      1      2      3      1      2
REFUSED               3      1      4      1      3      3      1      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34* 35-54  55+
 
Favorable            60%    70%    67%    65%    66%    55%    62%    71%
Unfavorable          36     25     29     30     31     33     34     25
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      1      2      1      9      1      2
REFUSED               3      3      2      2      2      3      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            65      63      63      67
Unfavorable          29      31      31      27
Hvn't hrd enough      2       3       2       2
REFUSED               3       3       4       4
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Barbara Buono favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            26%     8%    50%    18%    26%    27%    23%    45%
Unfavorable          37     62     12     38     35     38     43     13
Hvn't hrd enough     35     29     36     40     36     33     32     38
REFUSED               3      1      2      3      3      2      2      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34* 35-54  55+
 
Favorable            30%    23%    27%    30%    25%    28%    29%    25%
Unfavorable          35     38     36     37     37     25     34     41
Hvn't hrd enough     34     36     36     32     35     45     36     31
REFUSED               2      3      1      1      3      2      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barbara Buono favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 17  Oct 10  Sep 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            26      28      29      23
Unfavorable          37      36      35      36
Hvn't hrd enough     35      34      34      40
REFUSED               3       2       2       1
 
 
4. Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  42%    71%    19%    43%    45%    39%    49%    13%
No                   43     17     70     39     43     43     38     75
DK/NA                15     13     11     17     11     18     14     12
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34* 35-54  55+
 
Yes                  38%    45%    37%    46%    44%    34%    43%    44%
No                   50     38     47     44     42     59     46     37
DK/NA                12     17     16     10     14      7     11     19
 
 
5. Would you like to see Chris Christie run for President in 2016 or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  48%    72%    28%    50%    52%    44%    52%    26%
No                   41     21     63     36     39     43     38     61
DK/NA                11      7      9     13      9     13     10     12
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34* 35-54  55+
 
Yes                  44%    51%    41%    51%    52%    46%    47%    50%
No                   47     36     46     42     40     50     45     36
DK/NA                 9     12     13      7      8      4      9     15
 
 
6. (INTRO Q6-7: As you may know, the Lieutenant Governor becomes Governor if the Governor does not complete his or her term.) Do you think Kim Guadagno would make a good governor if it becomes necessary, or not, or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Good governor    17%    28%     7%    16%    19%    15%    19%    10%
No                   10      3     15     11     12      7      8     16
Hvn't hrd enough     72     68     77     72     67     78     72     71
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      2      -      1      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34* 35-54  55+
 
Yes/Good governor    17%    17%    11%    18%    18%    16%    16%    17%
No                   14      7      9     10     12     12     11      8
Hvn't hrd enough     69     75     79     72     69     72     71     74
REFUSED               1      1      2      -      1      -      1      1
 
 
7. Do you think Milly Silva would make a good governor if it becomes necessary, or not, or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Good governor     5%     6%     6%     3%     7%     3%     4%     4%
No                    9     10     10      8     12      7      9     11
Hvn't hrd enough     84     83     83     88     79     90     85     82
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1      1      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34* 35-54  55+
 
Yes/Good governor     6%     4%     4%     5%     7%     6%     5%     5%
No                   10      9      9      7     11     11     10      8
Hvn't hrd enough     83     85     85     87     81     81     84     86
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      1      2      2      1
 

Demographic Summary