September 21, 2004 - Terrorism Fear Lifts Bush To Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Iraq War Is Wrong And Economy Is Bad
President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are locked in a 48 - 48 percent tie among New Jersey likely voters, including undecided voters leaning toward a candidate, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Among registered voters, Sen. Kerry is ahead 47 - 43 percent. This compares to a 49 - 39 percent Kerry lead among registered voters, with 4 percent for Nader, in an August 25 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

New Jersey registered voters give President Bush a negative 45 - 53 percent approval rating, little changed from prior polls.

While 81 percent of Bush backers say they are voting more for the President, 61 percent of Kerry backers say they are voting more against Bush.

By a 55 - 40 percent margin, New Jersey voters say it was wrong for the United States to go to war in Iraq, also virtually unchanged from previous polls.

"It's not so much Bush vs. Kerry as Bush vs. Bush. Kerry voters aren't enthusiastic about their candidate. They just want to make Bush the ex-President," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Nader's vote is miniscule, but when we winnow down the list to likely voters, it's clear that Nader's two percent could be the key in New Jersey," Carroll added.

Looking at presidential qualities, voters say 54 - 37 percent that Bush acts more like a leader than Kerry, and 60 - 30 percent that Bush is doing a better job explaining what he will do as President.

Given four choices, 30 percent of New Jersey voters list terrorism as the most important issue in the presidential race, followed by 25 percent who list the economy, 24 percent who list the situation in Iraq and 16 percent who list health care. This is the first time terrorism has been the top concern in any Quinnipiac University poll.

Asked which candidate would do a better job on these issues New Jersey voters say:
  • 55 - 38 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism;
  • 50 - 44 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;
  • 49 - 44 percent that Bush would do a better job on Iraq;
  • 55 - 36 percent that Kerry would do a better job on health care.
Only 2 percent of New Jersey voters say the U.S. economy is 'excellent,' while 38 percent say it is 'good;' 39 percent say it is 'not so good,' and 20 percent say it is 'poor.'

"The vacant skyline where the World Trade Center once stood brings the threat of terrorism home to New Jersey across the river," Carroll said.

"Voters trust Bush to do a better job on terrorism - and they see terrorism as a more important issue than the economy or health care, Kerry's issues. "And those Republican attacks on Kerry for speaking with senatorial fuzziness seem to be scoring."

From September 16 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 943 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey includes 672 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Sep 21, 2004 45 53 2 Aug 25, 2004 42 55 3 Aug 5, 2004 43 53 4 Jun 23, 2004 42 54 4 May 20, 2004 44 52 4 Mar 9, 2004 44 52 5 Nov 13, 2003 47 50 3 Sep 25, 2003 49 47 4 Jul 17, 2003 53 43 4 Jun 19, 2003 58 39 3 Apr 1, 2003 67 29 4 Jan 29, 2003 54 42 4 Dec 11, 2002 58 36 5 Oct 7, 2002 62 34 5 Sep 12, 2002 64 30 6 Aug 8, 2002 61 32 7 Jun 19, 2002 73 21 7 Apr 24, 2002 77 18 5 Mar 7, 2002 77 18 5 Jan 30, 2002 82 13 6 Oct 18, 2001 90 7 3 Sep 26, 2001 88 8 5 Aug 7, 2001 52 42 6 Jul 5, 2001 53 42 5 May 14, 2001 57 35 7 Apr 11, 2001 57 34 9 Mar 8, 2001 62 26 12 Feb 8, 2001 51 28 21



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?

                                                SMONE   WLDN'T
                        JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Sep 21, 2004 47 43 3 1 - 6 Aug 25, 2004 49 39 4 1 1 7 Aug 5, 2004 49 36 6 1 2 6 Jun 23, 2004 46 40 7 - 1 6 May 20, 2004 46 43 5 1 1 5



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Approve 45% 90% 10% 39% 51% 39% 58% Disapprove 53 10 89 57 48 58 41 DK/NA 2 - 1 5 1 3 1



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Veteran


Kerry 47% 6% 86% 45% 42% 51% 37% Bush 43 90 9 37 49 39 54 Nader 3 3 2 5 3 3 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 DK/NA 6 1 2 12 5 7 4

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 52% 51% 41% 55% 33% Bush 41 36 52 35 57 Nader 1 2 2 5 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - 1 DK/NA 5 10 5 5 3

No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush

Kerry 44% 52% 74% 50% 17% 82% 7% Bush 44 42 15 40 77 11 87 Nader 4 1 6 3 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - 0 DK/NA 7 4 6 6 4 4 4

Age in years............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Kerry 54% 40% 47% 46% Bush 34 52 44 42 Nader 5 1 2 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 DK/NA 6 5 6 6

Annual HsHold income <30 30-50 50-100 >100K

Kerry 70% 44% 42% 39% Bush 22 46 48 54 Nader 5 1 4 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - DK/NA 2 9 6 3



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
                     
                        Likely
                        Voters
                        
Kerry                   46% 
Bush                    47
Nader                    2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -
DK/NA                    4




7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

(If undecided q7) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.
                     
                        Likely plus
                        Leaners
                        
Kerry                   48% 
Bush                    48
Nader                    2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -  
DK/NA                    2




10. (If Nader q7) What if Ralph Nader were not running? If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes 'Leaners'.

Recalculated Bush vs Kerry matchup without Nader among likely voters.
                      
                        Likely plus
                        Leaners


Kerry 49% Bush 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 2



8. (If candidate choice q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? Registered voters.

                                Kerry   Bush
                        Tot     Vtr q7  Vtr q7


Made up 86% 85% 91% Might change 13 15 8 DK/NA 1 - 1



9a. (If "Kerry" q7) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?

                        Kerry  
                        Vtr q7 


For Kerry 33% Against Bush 61 DK/NA 7



9b. (If "Bush" q7) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?

                        Bush
                        Vtr q7


For Bush 81% Against Kerry 17 DK/NA 1



11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Very satisfied 8% 18% - 7% 10% 6% 10% Smwht satisfied 37 62 15 34 43 32 48 Smwht dissatisfied 28 12 42 32 24 33 18 Very dissatisfied 26 7 42 27 23 28 24 DK/NA 1 1 - - - 1 -



12. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Iraq 24% 15% 35% 23% 23% 26% 30% Economy 25 20 26 27 26 23 19 Terrorism 30 52 14 27 33 27 29 Health care 16 10 21 16 14 18 17 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 4 6 5



13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 36% 77% 10% 28% 38% 34% 45% Kerry 55 15 86 59 53 57 43 DK/NA 9 8 5 13 9 9 12



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 44% 87% 11% 39% 48% 40% 54% Kerry 50 11 87 51 47 53 40 DK/NA 6 3 3 11 5 7 5



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 49% 89% 17% 46% 56% 44% 61% Kerry 44 9 76 43 40 47 31 DK/NA 7 2 7 10 4 9 7



16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 55% 93% 23% 52% 62% 48% 63% Kerry 38 6 70 36 32 43 28 DK/NA 8 1 6 13 6 9 9



17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader -- John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Kerry 37% 7% 65% 36% 32% 41% 26% Bush 54 93 23 50 57 50 62 DK/NA 10 - 11 14 11 9 12



18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Kerry 30% 5% 56% 28% 26% 34% 21% Bush 60 92 31 61 68 53 69 DK/NA 10 2 12 10 7 12 10



19. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Excellent 2% 5% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% Good 38 68 16 35 48 29 50 Not so good 39 22 50 43 31 46 28 Poor 20 4 32 22 18 22 18 DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 1 -



20. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Right thing 40% 78% 10% 35% 47% 34% 43% Wrong thing 55 18 87 59 50 59 50 DK/NA 5 4 3 6 3 7 7