October 19, 2004 - Kerry Has 4-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Matches Bush On Vision, But Not Leadership
Democratic challenger John Kerry holds a narrow 49 - 45 percent lead over President George W. Bush among New Jersey likely voters, with 1 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 46 percent Kerry lead among likely voters, with 2 percent for Nader, in an October 6 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Among registered voters backing President Bush, 82 percent say they are voting more for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 43 percent say they are voting more for the Democrat while 51 percent say they are voting more against Bush.

Looking at presidential qualities:
  • Voters say 50 - 42 percent that Bush acts more like a leader than Kerry;
  • Voters split 45 - 45 percent on which candidate does a better job explaining what he will do as President, compared to a 2 - 1 Bush lead in this measure September 21.
"New Jersey wasn't supposed to be close, but Sen. Kerry can't seem to open a solid lead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Like people everywhere, New Jersey voters like to be asked, not taken for granted. President Bush has visited. Will Kerry?"

"Kerry must hope that undecided voters, who usually favor the challenger, will come his way, and that Ralph Nader continues to fade as would-be supporters decide the race is too close for them to cast so-called protest votes," Carroll added.

Given four choices, 27 percent of New Jersey voters list terrorism as the most important issue in the presidential race, followed by 25 percent who list the situation in Iraq, 24 percent who list the economy, and 18 percent who list health care.

Asked who would do a better job on these issues, New Jersey voters say:
  • 53 - 37 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism;
  • 48 - 44 percent that Bush would do a better job on Iraq;
  • 50 - 40 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;
  • 56 - 35 percent that Kerry would do a better job on health care.
By a 51 - 44 percent margin, New Jersey voters say it was wrong for the United States to go to war in Iraq, compared to a 55 - 40 percent antiwar vote September 21.

New Jersey voters have a split opinion of Bush: 37 percent favorable; 39 percent unfavorable and 20 percent mixed.

Kerry gets a 36 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 29 percent mixed.

"New Jersey voters don't think much of either candidate," Carroll said.

From October 14 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,123 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 786 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'

                        LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                                                SMONE   WLDN'T
                        JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 49 45 1 - - 4 Oct 6, 2004 49 46 2 1 - 3 Sep 21, 2004 48 48 2 - - 2



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

                                                SMONE   WLDN'T
                        JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 46 39 2 - - 12 Oct 6, 2004 44 42 1 1 - 12 Sep 21, 2004 47 43 3 1 - 6 Aug 25, 2004 49 39 4 1 1 7 Aug 5, 2004 49 36 6 1 2 6 Jun 23, 2004 46 40 7 - 1 6 May 20, 2004 46 43 5 1 1 5



TREND: If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?

                        Iraq    Econ    Terror  HlthCr  DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 25 24 27 18 5 Oct 6, 2004 24 29 31 12 5 Sep 21, 2004 24 25 30 16 5



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 35 56 9 Oct 6, 2004 33 53 14 Sep 21, 2004 36 55 9



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 40 50 10 Oct 6, 2004 42 47 11 Sep 21, 2004 44 50 6



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 48 44 9 Oct 6, 2004 49 42 9 Sep 21, 2004 49 44 7



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 53 37 10 Oct 6, 2004 52 38 10 Sep 21, 2004 55 38 8



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader, John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        JK      GWB     DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 42 50 9 Oct 6, 2004 41 49 10 Sep 21, 2004 37 54 10



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president, John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        JK      GWB     DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 45 45 10 Oct 6, 2004 35 52 13 Sep 21, 2004 30 60 10



TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Right   Wrong   DK/NA


Oct 19, 2004 44 51 5 Oct 6, 2004 40 52 7 Sep 21, 2004 40 55 5



1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1)As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.

                        Likely
                        Voters
                        
Kerry                   49%
Bush                    45
Nader                    1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         - 
DK/NA                    4 




4. (If "Nader" q1 or lean to Nader) What if Ralph Nader were not running? If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes 'Leaners'.

Recalculated Bush vs Kerry matchup without Nader among likely voters.

                        Likely 
                        Voters 


Kerry 50% Bush 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 5



1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered Voters)

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Kerry 46% 6% 85% 44% 45% 48% 42% Bush 39 88 5 32 43 36 40 Nader 2 - 1 4 2 1 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - DK/NA 12 5 9 18 10 14 14

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 64% 49% 28% 50% 40% Bush 25 35 61 35 44 Nader 1 2 2 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - - DK/NA 10 14 8 13 13

No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush

Kerry 46% 48% 75% 53% 20% 83% 10% Bush 38 42 15 35 65 5 79 Nader 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - - - - DK/NA 14 8 7 11 12 10 10

Age in years............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Kerry 56% 44% 46% 39% Bush 35 45 40 37 Nader 2 2 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 DK/NA 7 8 12 22

Annual hshold income <30 30-50 50-100 >100K

Kerry 49% 49% 50% 42% Bush 26 38 40 51 Nader 3 1 2 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - DK/NA 22 10 8 7



2. (If candidate choice on q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                        Kerry   Bush
                        Vtr q1  Vtr q1
                        
Made up                 92%     94%
Might change             7       6
DK/NA                    1       -


3a. (If Kerry voter q1)Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?

                        Kerry 
                        Vtr q1
                        
For Kerry               43%
Against Bush            51
DK/NA                    5


3b. (If Bush voter q1)Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?

                        Bush
                        Vtr q1
                        
For Bush                82%
Against Kerry           15
DK/NA                    3




6. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Favorable 37% 81% 6% 30% 39% 34% 43% Unfavorable 39 5 68 40 37 41 36 Mixed 20 12 20 28 20 21 16 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 3 1 3 2 4 REFUSED 1 - 3 - 1 2 1



7. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Favorable 36% 7% 65% 34% 34% 37% 33% Unfavorable 30 66 3 26 34 26 35 Mixed 29 23 27 33 26 31 28 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 4 6 4 5 3 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 1 1



8. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president - the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Iraq 25% 16% 32% 26% 24% 26% 23% Economy 24 21 28 23 28 21 24 Terrorism 27 49 12 25 28 27 20 Health care 18 10 25 18 15 21 24 DK/NA 5 4 2 8 5 5 9



9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 35% 78% 8% 27% 39% 32% 36% Kerry 56 15 86 60 55 57 56 DK/NA 9 7 5 13 7 11 8



10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 40% 88% 8% 33% 43% 38% 40% Kerry 50 8 83 54 49 50 47 DK/NA 10 5 9 13 8 11 13



11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 48% 90% 15% 45% 51% 44% 47% Kerry 44 7 78 43 42 46 41 DK/NA 9 3 7 13 7 10 12



12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 53% 92% 19% 52% 58% 48% 53% Kerry 37 6 70 33 34 40 33 DK/NA 10 2 11 15 8 12 14



13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader - John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Kerry 42% 7% 74% 39% 40% 43% 38% Bush 50 91 18 47 52 48 50 DK/NA 9 2 8 14 8 9 12



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Kerry 45% 11% 75% 46% 44% 46% 43% Bush 45 84 14 42 47 42 46 DK/NA 10 4 11 12 9 12 11



16. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Right thing 44% 84% 16% 38% 48% 40% 45% Wrong thing 51 10 80 57 47 55 49 DK/NA 5 6 4 5 5 5 5



17. Have the Presidential debates helped you make up your mind who to vote for, for President or not?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Yes 41% 33% 50% 37% 41% 40% 31% No 57 66 47 61 58 56 67 DK/NA 2 2 3 2 1 3 1



18. Does Governor McGreevey's resignation make you more likely to vote in the Presidential election, less likely to vote in the Presidential election, or doesn't it affect whether you will vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


More likely 4% 5% 2% 4% 4% 3% 3% Less likely 1 - - 1 1 - 1 Doesn't affect 94 93 97 93 94 95 95 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 2 1



19. Does Governor McGreevey's resignation make you more likely to vote for John Kerry for President, more likely to vote for George W. Bush for President, or doesn't it affect your vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


More for Kerry 2% - 5% 1% 1% 3% 1% More for Bush 4 8 1 3 4 4 3 Doesn't affect 93 90 92 96 95 91 94 DK/NA 1 2 2 - 1 1 2