March 30, 2000 - Gore Surges As Bush Tanks In New Jersey, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Gov. Whitman Would Not Help GOP Ticket
Vice President Al Gore has jumped to a 50 - 37 percent lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today.

If Pat Buchanan is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate, Gore beats Bush 48 - 35 percent, with 6 percent for Buchanan, the independent Quinnipiac College Poll finds.

Only 35 percent of New Jersey voters would like to see Gov. Christine Todd Whitman as the GOP vice presidential candidate, while 57 percent say no. Republicans are split 45 - 49 percent on whether they want Whitman on the ticket.

If Whitman were the Republican vice presidential candidate, 18 percent of voters say they would be more likely to vote Republican, while 27 percent say they would be less likely and 53 percent say it would make no difference.

From March 21 - 27, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,177 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

"The bloody fight for the Republican nomination has taken its toll on Gov. Bush's standing in New Jersey. Bush went from a tie to a 13-point deficit among independents during March. Nevertheless, Gore still has to work to win over independent voters in November because right now 19 percent are undecided or don't like either candidate," said Quinnipiac College Political Science Professor Scott McLean.

"The really bad news for the Republicans is a resurgent gender gap. Women went from being evenly split between Bush and Gore in September to a whopping 21-point advantage for Gore now. It may be that President Clinton's job approval rating -- slightly higher in New Jersey than in the nation as a whole -- is starting to have a bigger impact on the race," Dr. McLean said.

In a Gore-Bush matchup, men favor the Democrat 46 - 41 percent, while women back Gore 54 - 33 percent. Gore leads among independent voters 47 - 34 percent. In the February 24 Quinnipiac College poll, independent voters went 43 percent for Bush and 41 percent for Gore, a tie.

New Jersey voters are split 32 - 33 percent in their opinion of Gore, while 29 percent have a mixed opinion and 6 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. These numbers are up from a 29 - 38 percent favorability February 24. Among the other possible candidates:
                Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Bush            25%              41%             28%            6%
Buchanan         6               56              15            23



This is Bush's lowest favorability rating since he first surfaced as a Presidential candidate, down from 39 - 10 percent in a November 12, 1998, Quinnipiac College poll.

These same voters give President Clinton a solid 62 - 35 percent approval rating.

Gov. Whitman's approval is 51 - 39 percent, one of her lowest ever.

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data: www.quinnipiac.edu

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Whitman is handling her job as Governor of New Jersey?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


Approve 51% 67% 39% 49% 53% 48%

Disapprove 39 23 50 42 37 40

DK/NA 11 9 11 10 10 12



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


Approve 62% 31% 89% 63% 58% 65%

Disapprove 35 66 9 32 39 30

DK/NA 4 3 2 5 2 5



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


A lot 39% 43% 38% 41% 44% 34%

Some 40 37 44 40 38 43

Only a little 17 18 16 16 15 19

None at all 3 3 2 4 3 4

DK/NA - - - - - -



7. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


Favorable 32% 11% 58% 27% 28% 35%

Unfavorable 33 60 10 31 39 27

Mixed 29 23 28 34 27 31

Haven't hrd enough 6 5 4 7 5 6

REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1



8. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


Favorable 25% 53% 8% 18% 27% 22%

Unfavorable 41 12 68 41 39 43

Mixed 28 29 20 32 27 29

Haven't hrd enough 6 5 3 8 6 6

REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 -



9. Is your opinion of Pat Buchanan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


Favorable 6% 9% 3% 5% 6% 5%

Unfavorable 56 47 62 58 62 50

Mixed 15 25 8 13 13 16

Haven't hrd enough 23 19 26 23 17 29

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1



10. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


Al Gore 50% 13% 89% 47% 46% 54%

George W. Bush 37 78 5 34 41 33

SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 1 5 3 2

WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 2 3

DK/NA 8 7 4 9 8 7



11. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, and Pat Buchanan the Reform Party candidate, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


Al Gore 48% 11% 86% 46% 44% 51%

George W. Bush 35 75 5 32 38 32

Pat Buchanan 6 6 3 6 6 5

SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 1

WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 2 3

DK/NA 8 6 5 9 8 8



12. Would you like to see Christine Whitman run as the Republican candidate for Vice-President or not?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


Yes 35% 45% 25% 37% 35% 36%

No 57 49 65 56 57 58

DK/NA 8 6 10 7 9 6



13. If Christine Whitman were the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for the Republican ticket, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 


More likely 18% 23% 11% 20% 18% 18%

Less likely 27 15 36 25 24 29

Wouldn't make a diff. 53 59 50 53 57 50

DK/NA 2 2 3 2 2 3