May 19, 2005 - Forrester Pulls Ahead Of Schundler In GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Republicans Say Schundler Has Best Experience
Douglas Forrester has opened a 39 - 33 percent lead over Bret Schundler among New Jersey likely Republican primary voters in the race for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Among the five other Republican contenders, only Steve Lonegan reaches the 4 percent mark. Another 15 percent are undecided.

An April 28 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showed Forrester with 36 percent to 33 percent for Schundler, too close to call.

In today's survey, 47 percent of likely Republican voters say their mind is made up, while 52 percent say they might change their mind. Only 46 percent of Forrester voters say their mind is made up, with 53 percent who might change. Among Schundler voters, 55 percent say their mind is made up, with 45 percent who might change.

In a head to head matchup, Forrester tops Schundler 48 - 39 percent among likely Republican voters, compared to 45 - 40 percent April 28.

"Republican voters apparently are responding to Doug Forrester's expensive advertising campaign, particularly his emphasis on property tax relief," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The other five candidates, who split 12 percent of the vote, are clearly out of the race. But with 15 percent undecided and 52 percent saying they could change their mind, anything could happen in this race."

Looking at the leading GOP contenders, New Jersey Republican likely voters say:
  • 44 - 33 percent that Schundler has the best experience to be Governor;
  • 41 - 38 percent, too close to call, that Forrester has stronger leadership ability;
  • 38 - 24 percent that Forrester has the best property tax relief plan;
  • 45 - 31 percent that Forrester has the best chance of beating U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine, the likely Democratic candidate for Governor.
"While GOP voters think Bret Schundler has more experience, they say Forrester would be a stronger leader; has the best plan for property tax relief and, more importantly, has the best chance of beating Sen. Corzine in November," Richards said.

"While GOP voters think Bret Schundler has more experience, they say Forrester would be a stronger leader and more importantly has the best chance of beating Sen. Corzine in November," Richards said.

From May 10 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 348 New Jersey likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Douglas Forrester, Bret Schundler, Todd Caliguire, Paul DiGaetano, Steve Lonegan, John Murphy, and Bob Schroeder, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester, Schundler, Caliguire, DiGaetano, Lonegan, Murphy, or Schroeder?

* This table includes Leaners

                     Likely
                     Voters


Forrester 39% Schundler 33 Caliguire - DiGaetano 2 Lonegan 4 Murphy 3 Schroeder 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 15



2. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                        Likely Voters..........
                                Forstr  Schndlr
                        Tot     Vtr q1  Vtr q1 


Made up 47% 46% 55% Might change 52 53 45 DK/NA - 1 -



3. Suppose Douglas Forrester and Bret Schundler were the only candidates running in the Republican primary for governor, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester or Schundler?

* This table includes Leaners

                     Likely
                     Voters


Forrester 48% Schundler 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 12



4. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has the best experience to be governor -- Bret Schundler or Douglas Forrester?

                     Likely
                     Voters


Schundler 44% Forrester 33 DK/NA 23



5. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has stronger leadership qualities -- Bret Schundler or Douglas Forrester?

                     Likely
                     Voters


Schundler 38% Forrester 41 DK/NA 21



6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has the best property tax plan -- Bret Schundler or Douglas Forrester?

                     Likely
                     Voters


Schundler 24% Forrester 38 DK/NA 38



7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has the best chance of beating Jon Corzine in the general election for governor in November -- Bret Schundler or Douglas Forrester?

                     Likely
                     Voters


Schundler 31% Forrester 45 DK/NA 24



TREND: If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Douglas Forrester, Bret Schundler, Todd Caliguire, Paul DiGaetano, Steve Lonegan, John Murphy, and Bob Schroeder, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester, Schundler, Caliguire, DiGaetano, Lonegan, Murphy, or Schroeder?

*This table includes Leaners

                        LIKELY VOTERS


May 19 Apr 28 2005 2005

Forrester 39 36 Schundler 33 33 Caliguire - 1 DiGaetano 2 2 Lonegan 4 - Murphy 3 5 Schroeder 3 4 SMONE ELSE (VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE (VOL) - - DK/NA 15 18



TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                        LIKELY VOTERS .......


Made Might Up Change DK/NA

May 19, 2005 47 52 - Apr 28, 2005 38 61 -



TREND: Suppose Douglas Forrester and Bret Schundler were the only candidates running in the Republican primary for governor, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester or Schundler?

*This table includes Leaners

                        LIKELY VOTERS .......................


SMONE WLDN'T DF BS ELSE VOTE DK/NA

May 19, 2005 48 39 1 - 12 Apr 28, 2005 45 40 - - 15