October 3, 2008 - Most New Yorkers Back Third Term For Bloomberg, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; He Leads Anyone In '09 Pack 5 - 1

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By a margin of 54 - 42 percent, New York City voters favor extending the eight-year term limit to 12 years so they can elect Mayor Michael Bloomberg to a third term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a July 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll in which New Yorkers opposed 56 - 38 percent extending term limits for four more years of Mayor Bloomberg.

In this latest survey, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday amidst speculation about Mayor Bloomberg's plans but before his official announcement, Democrats favor 53 - 43 percent extending term limits, while Republicans and independents support it 61 - 37 percent and 55 - 41 percent respectively. Whites back the idea 64 - 31 percent while black voters are opposed 54 - 42 percent and Hispanic voters favor the idea 51- 47 percent.

"Does this mean that New York voters like term limits less? No. It means they like Mayor Mike more," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Asked who they most want to see elected Mayor in 2009:
  • 51 percent name Bloomberg;
  • 9 percent choose Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz;
  • 8 percent want City Comptroller William Thompson;
  • 7 percent pick Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly;
  • 7 percent name U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner;
  • 5 percent pick City Council Speaker Christine Quinn;
  • 4 percent name Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum.
"Will it be a coronation? Bloomberg's support is more than 50 percent. The others? Way down in single digits. His job approval is still up in the stratosphere, where it's been for three years," Carroll added.

Looking at another term limit question, 52 percent of New Yorkers say Bloomberg deserves four more years to finish his work as Mayor, while 44 percent say changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair.

By a 65 - 29 percent margin, New Yorkers support the basic concept of term limits. Support is consistent among all groups.

In a question where no individual is named, New York City voters oppose 56 - 39 percent extending the current two-term or eight-year limit so city officials could serve a third term.

And while voters would extend term limits to vote for Bloomberg, they oppose 58 - 35 percent extending term limits to give their local City Council member four more years.

"Council members' feelings might be hurt that voters don't want to change term limits for them. But presumably they'll swallow their pride and take a free ride to a third-term campaign along with the mayor," Carroll said.

New York City voters approve 75 - 19 percent of the job Bloomberg is doing. Approval is consistent among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters. Whites approve 83 - 13 percent while blacks approve 69 - 23 percent and Hispanic voters approve 68 - 25 percent. Bloomberg's approval has topped 70 percent in every poll except one - a 69 percent rating - since November 2005.

Approval for three other city-wide elected officials is at or close to the highest levels ever:
  • 53 - 13 percent for Comptroller Thompson;
  • 49 - 16 percent for Public Advocate Gotbaum;
  • 48 - 22 percent for Council Speaker Quinn.
"If these leaders decide to get on the Bloomberg bandwagon and seek a third term, they're starting out from a good position," Carroll said.

From September 30 - October 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,316 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              75%    78%    75%    75%    83%    69%    68%
Disapprove           19     17     18     20     13     23     25
DK/NA                 6      5      7      5      5      8      6
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              67%    72%    82%    76%    79%    79%    72%
Disapprove           25     21     14     17     16     15     21
DK/NA                 8      7      4      7      5      6      7
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? * also 75% on 3/12/08, 1/16/07 & 11/17/05
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 7   Mar 12  Jan 9   Oct 3   Jul 2
                     2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008*   2003
 
Approve              75      71      70      75      73      75     31
Disapprove           19      22      22      17      20      19     60
DK/NA                 6       6       8       8       7       6      8
 
 
2. Now I'm going to name seven people who might run for mayor next year. After I read all seven names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected mayor in 2009. Here are the choices: Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, City Comptroller William Thompson or Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Bloomberg            51%    65%    50%    47%    60%    40%    49%
Markowitz             9      7     10      7      5     14      9
Kelly                 7     13      6      7      8      6      8
Weiner                7      4      7     10      8      3      7
Quinn                 5      3      6      6      6      4      7
Thompson              8      1      8     10      3     17      6
Gotbaum               4      1      5      3      3      5      3
DK/NA                 9      7      8     10      7     11     11
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Bloomberg            46%    42%    66%    49%    58%    53%    49%
Markowitz             3     21      2      4     10      9      9
Kelly                 9      6      3     10      6      7      7
Weiner                4      8      4     11      6      9      6
Quinn                 4      5      6      6      4      5      6
Thompson             14      6      6      9      3     10      6
Gotbaum               6      3      5      4      1      1      6
DK/NA                14      9      7      7     13      7     10
 
WITHOUT Bloomberg (Based on second choice of Bloomberg supporters)
                     Tot
 
Markowitz            15%
Kelly                19
Weiner               15
Quinn                12
Thompson             13
Gotbaum               7
DK/NA                19
 
TREND: Now I'm going to name seven people who might run for mayor next year. After I read all seven names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected mayor in 2009. Here are the choices: Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, City Comptroller William Thompson, and Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum? na = not asked
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 7   Mar 13
                     2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Bloomberg            51      38      na      na
Markowitz             9      11      13      14
Kelly                 7      12      23      22
Weiner                7      10      16      14
Quinn                 5       7      10      13
Thompson              8       7      10       8
Gotbaum               4       4       6       8
DK/NA                 9      10      22      21
 
 
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              61%    79%    56%    70%    73%    47%    58%
Disapprove           25     12     30     16     15     41     30
DK/NA                14      9     14     14     12     12     12
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              56%    56%    61%    67%    73%    68%    56%
Disapprove           28     31     22     22     18     21     28
DK/NA                17     13     16     11      9     11     16
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? * also 70% on 2/3/06
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 7&8 Mar 13  Jan 9   Mar 9   Jan 16
                     2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2006*   2007
 
Approve              61      60      59      62      60      70      52
Disapprove           25      27      30      28      23      17      34
DK/NA                14      13      11      10      16      13      14
 
 
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              42%    48%    41%    40%    45%    41%    39%
Disapprove           38     31     38     42     32     45     41
DK/NA                20     21     21     18     23     14     20
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              41%    39%    46%    39%    51%    48%    37%
Disapprove           40     43     32     41     31     32     43
DK/NA                19     18     22     21     18     20     20
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 7   Mar 13  Jan 9   Feb 26  Mar 15
                     2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2003    2007
 
Approve              42      44      37      40      40      46      33
Disapprove           38      37      41      39      37      27      43
DK/NA                20      19      22      21      24      28      24
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              49%    38%    52%    47%    44%    56%    50%
Disapprove           16     30     12     18     18     11     14
DK/NA                35     32     36     35     38     33     36
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              52%    48%    49%    52%    29%    44%    52%
Disapprove           12     18     12     16     31     21     13
DK/NA                36     34     38     32     40     35     35
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 7   Mar 13  Jan 9   Oct 3   Feb 26
                     2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2003
 
Approve              49      45      48      45      44      49      34
Disapprove           16      17      18      18      18      16      17
DK/NA                35      38      33      37      38      35      49
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              48%    38%    53%    44%    49%    54%    44%
Disapprove           22     34     17     31     23     19     22
DK/NA                29     28     29     25     28     27     34
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              44%    49%    50%    50%    44%    47%    49%
Disapprove           25     24     17     23     23     29     18
DK/NA                31     27     32     27     33     24     33
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 7   Mar 13  Jan 9   Mar 14  May 7
                     2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2007    2008
 
Approve              48      44      43      48      48      51      43
Disapprove           22      25      30      15      14      12      30
DK/NA                29      31      27      37      38      37      27
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              53%    43%    55%    56%    46%    67%    47%
Disapprove           13     21     11     14     11     12     19
DK/NA                34     36     34     30     43     21     34
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              57%    54%    43%    57%    59%    57%    50%
Disapprove           12     17      9     14      7     15     11
DK/NA                31     29     48     29     34     28     38
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 7   Mar 13  Jan 9   Oct 3   Feb 26
                     2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2003
 
Approve              53      51      51      44      48      53      35
Disapprove           13      13      16      11      14      13      13
DK/NA                34      36      33      46      38      34      52
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              50%    44%    53%    52%    50%    57%    44%
Disapprove           31     42     28     33     30     29     39
DK/NA                18     14     19     15     20     14     18
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              41%    52%    53%    51%    49%    50%    51%
Disapprove           38     33     24     31     38     35     29
DK/NA                20     15     24     17     13     16     20
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job? * also 50% on 3/13/08
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 7   Mar 13  Jan 9   Oct 3   Jul 16
                     2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008*   2008
 
Approve              50      43      47      50      46      50      43
Disapprove           31      38      38      29      31      31      38
DK/NA                18      18      16      21      23      18      18
 
 
9. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Very satisfied       12%    18%    11%    12%    16%     8%    12%
Smwht satisfied      48     43     47     55     56     44     38
Smwht dissatisfied   23     21     24     20     21     27     25
Very dissatisfied    16     18     17     11      7     21     23
DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      1      -      2
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied       10%    11%    19%     9%     9%    15%    11%
Smwht satisfied      44     48     53     47     45     54     44
Smwht dissatisfied   23     24     16     26     29     18     26
Very dissatisfied    21     16     11     16     15     12     18
DK/NA                 2      1      1      1      2      1      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  May 8   Nov 19  Jul 25  Jul 12  Apr 12
                     2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2006    2006
 
Very satisfied       12       9       8      12      10      16      12
Smwht satisfied      48      48      47      53      54      51      56
Smwht dissatisfied   23      26      28      22      23      22      22
Very dissatisfied    16      15      16      11      12      10       9
DK/NA                 1       1       -       2       1       1       1
 
 
10. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose setting limits on the number of years elected officials can hold office?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favor                65%    66%    65%    67%    65%    67%    63%
Oppose               29     28     30     26     30     27     31
DK/NA                 6      7      5      7      5      6      6
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favor                64%    66%    61%    65%    77%    63%    66%
Oppose               27     28     34     29     18     32     27
DK/NA                 9      6      5      6      5      5      7
 
TREND: Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose setting limits on the number of years elected officials can hold office?
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  Mar 1
                     2008    2008    2001
 
Favor                65      71      67
Oppose               29      23      28
DK/NA                 6       6       5
 
 
11. Currently, there is an 8 year time limit for all elected New York City officials. Do you favor or oppose extending this limit to 12 years?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favor                39%    37%    40%    40%    50%    29%    32%
Oppose               56     57     56     55     46     68     62
DK/NA                 5      6      4      5      4      4      7
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favor                30%    35%    51%    38%    38%    41%    37%
Oppose               66     59     46     56     54     55     57
DK/NA                 4      6      4      6      8      4      6
 
TREND: Currently, there is an 8 year term limit for all elected New York City officials. Do you favor or oppose extending this limit to 12 years?
                     Oct 3   Jul 16  Mar 1
                     2008    2008    2001
 
Favor                39      32      34
Oppose               56      65      63
DK/NA                 5       3       4
 
 
12. As you may know, Michael Bloomberg will have served 8 years as Mayor by the end of 2009. If Mayor Bloomberg commits to running for a third term as mayor, would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so you could vote for him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favor                54%    61%    53%    55%    64%    42%    51%
Oppose               42     37     43     41     31     54     47
DK/NA                 4      2      4      3      5      4      2
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favor                50%    49%    62%    56%    56%    55%    54%
Oppose               45     48     33     41     36     41     42
DK/NA                 5      3      5      3      8      4      4
 
TREND: As you may know, Michael Bloomberg will have served 8 years as Mayor by the end of 2009. If Mayor Bloomberg commits to running for a third term as mayor, would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so you could vote for him?
                     Oct 3   Jul 16
                     2008    2008
 
Favor                54      38
Oppose               42      56
DK/NA                 4       5
 
 
13. Would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so your local City Council member can serve four more years?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favor                35%    34%    35%    36%    38%    29%    36%
Oppose               58     62     58     59     53     66     58
DK/NA                 7      5      7      5      9      5      6
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favor                28%    35%    35%    39%    31%    36%    34%
Oppose               65     61     56     54     59     60     58
DK/NA                 8      4      8      7     10      4      9
 
TREND: Would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so your local City Council member can serve four more years?
                     Oct 3   Jul 16
                     2008    2008
 
Favor                35      26
Oppose               58      66
DK/NA                 7       8
 
 
14. If term limits are altered or abolished and Mayor Bloomberg could run again, which comes closest to your feelings: Bloomberg has a lot of good programs he wants to finish; he should get four more years in office OR Changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair; someone else should have the chance to be mayor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Four more years
 in office           52%    57%    50%    56%    64%    38%    42%
Changing the
 rules unfair        44     40     46     40     32     58     53
DK/NA                 5      3      4      4      4      3      5
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Four more years
 in office           42%    46%    62%    54%    52%    53%    51%
Changing the
 rules unfair        51     49     33     43     44     42     45
DK/NA                 7      5      5      3      5      5      4
 
TREND: If term limits are altered or abolished and Mayor Bloomberg could run again, which comes closest to your feelings: Bloomberg has a lot of good programs he wants to finish; he should get four more years in office OR Changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair; someone else should have the chance to be mayor?
                     Oct 3   Jul 16
                     2008    2008
 
Four more years
 in office           52      40
Changing the 
 rules unfair        44      55
DK/NA                 5       5
 
 
15. Mayor Bloomberg is trying to balance the city budget. Do you think he should raise taxes, cut spending, or borrow money?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Raise taxes          18%     5%    22%    16%    21%    15%    13%
Cut spending         56     73     51     61     57     56     57
Borrow money         14     15     14     14     10     16     20
DK/NA                12      7     12      9     12     12     10
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Raise taxes          11%    26%    24%    11%     9%    23%    15%
Cut spending         61     51     50     60     75     55     57
Borrow money         14     13     12     19      5     11     16
DK/NA                14     10     14      9     11     11     12
 
TREND: Mayor Bloomberg is trying to balance the city budget. Do you think he should raise taxes, cut spending or borrow money?
                     Oct 3   May 7   Feb 27  Nov 21  Jul 17
                     2008    2003    2003    2002    2002
 
Raise taxes          18      20      17      22      18
Cut spending         56      37      44      44      48
Borrow money         14      29      26      20      23
DK/NA                12      14      13      13      12