January 16, 2013 - Lhota Leads Unknowns In New York City GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But He Loses Mayoral Race 3-1 To Any Democrat

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Former MTA Chair & CEO Joseph Lhota leads a possible New York City Republican primary for mayor, with 23 percent of the vote, more than the other largely unknown contenders combined, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The biggest share, however, goes to undecided, with 53 percent.

Lhota is followed by businessman John Catsimatidis with 9 percent, newspaper publisher Tom Allon with 5 percent, former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion with 3 percent and Doe Fund founder George McDonald with 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University poll finds.

With 35 percent, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has a big lead in a Democratic primary for mayor. Public Advocate Bill de Blasio has 11 percent, with 10 percent for former City Comptroller William Thompson and 9 percent for Comptroller John Liu.

New York City voters disapprove 46 - 36 percent of the job Lhota did at the MTA and 69 percent of all voters don't know enough about him to decide whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. The range of voters who "don't know enough" about the other Republicans is from 83 percent to 92 percent.

"Who are those guys? Almost no one knows the Republicans who say they want to be mayor. Even Joe Lhota, the front-runner in a primary match-up and the former head of the MTA, is far from a house-hold name," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Council Speaker Christine Quinn still dominates the Democratic field. There is almost no gender gap for any candidate. For example, Quinn gets 36 percent of women and 34 percent of men, while Liu gets 10 percent of men and 9 percent of women."

By 3-1 margins or more, New York City voters back any of the three leading Democrats over Lhota:
  • Quinn leads 62 - 17 percent;
  • Thompson is up 55 - 19 percent;
  • de Blasio is on top 57 - 17 percent.
In a May 2, 2001, Quinnipiac University poll, then-Republican Michael B1oomberg trailed Democratic contenders by margins of 52 - 24 percent or more.

"The top three Democrats all thump Lhota. We limit the matchups to candidates who show some strength in their primaries," Carroll said. "New York City is a very blue city. Any Republican who wants to follow in the footsteps of Mayors Rudolph Giuliani or Michael Bloomberg will need to win lots of Democratic and independent voters."

Besides deficits of 68 to 76 percentage points among Democrats, Lhota trails among independent voters, 44 - 24 percent against Quinn, 38 - 26 percent against Thompson and 39 - 24 percent against de Blasio.

New York City voters approve 64 - 18 percent of the job Quinn is doing and give her a 54 - 18 percent favorability rating, again with almost no gender gap.
  • de Blasio gets a 48 - 16 percent approval and a 35 - 11 percent favorability rating.
  • Liu gets a 46 - 27 percent approval and 28 - 24 percent favorability rating.
  • Thompson gets a 31 - 10 percent favorability rating.
If Giuliani supports a candidate, New York City voters say 42 - 37 percent that would have a positive effect when they decide to vote. Mayor Bloomberg should not use his personal wealth to support a candidate for New York City mayor, voters say 51 - 38 percent.

"Giuliani is in with both feet for Lhota. Will that help? A mixed result," Carroll said.

From January 8 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,332 New York City voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 176 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 7.4 percentage points and 879 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, and Bill de Blasio, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Liu                   9%    10%     9%
Quinn                35     34     36 
Thompson             10     11     10 
de Blasio            11     13     10 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      3 
DK/NA                31     31     32 
 
TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, and Bill de Blasio, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..........
                     Jan 16  Nov 21  Aug 15  May 10
                     2013    2012    2012    2012
 
Liu                   9       5       9       7
Quinn                35      32      29      26
Thompson             10      10      10      13
de Blasio            11       9       9      10
Stringer             na       4       4       4
Allon                na      na       1       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       2
DK/NA                31      37      34      34
 
 
2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: Joseph Lhota, John Catsimatidis, Adolfo Carrion, George McDonald, and Tom Allon, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Lhota                23%    28%    18%
Catsimatidis          9      5     13 
Carrion               3      7      - 
McDonald              2      2      3 
Allon                 5      7      3 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      7      3 
DK/NA                53     44     60 
 
 
3. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Christine Quinn the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Quinn                62%    17%    81%    44%    58%    65%    55%    73%    71%
Lhota                17     62      5     24     23     13     27      9      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      3      2      1      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      2      6      3      4      2      5      3
DK/NA                16     18     10     24     15     17     15     12     16
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Quinn                59%    46%    57%    44%    52%    58%
Lhota                23     35     23     39     32     22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      3      1      3
DK/NA                14     17     17     13     13     16
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Quinn                62%    62%    68%    65%    58%    65%    57%    64%    63%
Lhota                17     18     16     18     19     17     17     18     17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      1      2      -      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      2      4      3      2      4      3      4
DK/NA                16     16     13     11     19     16     20     13     14
 
 
4. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Thompson             55%    10%    74%    38%    55%    56%    44%    73%    63%
Lhota                19     67      6     26     22     16     29      6     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      2      1      2      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      6      3      6      4      4      4      4      3
DK/NA                20     17     16     28     17     22     22     15     16
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Thompson             47%    39%    43%    30%    45%    44%
Lhota                27     34     28     45     32     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      -      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      2      5      3      5
DK/NA                21     22     25     19     18     25
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Thompson             54%    57%    61%    59%    51%    62%    55%    56%    51%
Lhota                18     19     19     17     20     19     18     18     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      2      -      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      3      5      5      3      4      5      4
DK/NA                22     18     16     18     22     17     22     19     24
 
 
5. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            57%    12%    77%    39%    54%    60%    50%    70%    63%
Lhota                17     64      5     24     21     14     26      6     15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      2      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      3      6      5      4      3      5      5
DK/NA                20     19     15     28     19     21     20     18     16
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
de Blasio            53%    43%    57%    34%    50%    50%
Lhota                24     30     25     44     29     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      3      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      2      4      2      4
DK/NA                19     22     14     18     18     22
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
de Blasio            57%    57%    63%    61%    52%    60%    56%    58%    56%
Lhota                17     18     17     15     20     17     17     18     17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      1      -      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      2      5      5      4      4      5      4
DK/NA                21     19     17     17     22     19     22     18     22
 
 
6. Is your opinion of John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            28%    25%    31%    21%    29%    27%    24%    37%    20%
Unfavorable          24     32     21     27     29     20     35     14     16
Hvn't hrd enough     46     42     46     49     40     51     39     47     61
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      3      2      1      2      2
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Christine Quinn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            54%    25%    64%    47%    54%    55%    54%    63%    54%
Unfavorable          18     41      9     24     20     17     25     15      9
Hvn't hrd enough     26     32     25     26     24     27     20     22     36
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      2      2      2      1      1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            31%    18%    35%    29%    34%    29%    26%    51%    23%
Unfavorable          10     18      8     11     12      9     15      8      7
Hvn't hrd enough     57     61     56     58     52     61     57     40     69
REFUSED               2      4      1      2      3      1      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 38% July 2009)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jan 16  Aug 26  Jul 28  Jun 16  Mar 24  Aug 26  Feb 24
                     2013    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009*   2009
 
Favorable            31      38      38      29      25      38      22
Unfavorable          10      10       9       6       5      10       5
Hvn't hrd enough     57      51      52      63      68      51      71
REFUSED               2       1       1       2       2       1       1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            35%    29%    40%    28%    35%    35%    37%    38%    31%
Unfavorable          11     24      7     13     14      9     14     10      8
Hvn't hrd enough     52     46     52     57     49     54     47     51     60
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      2      2      2      2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Joseph Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            19%    43%    12%    21%    22%    16%    26%    10%    11%
Unfavorable          11      4     13     10     13     10     12     12     12
Hvn't hrd enough     69     52     73     67     64     72     60     78     74
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -      2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of John Catsimatidis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable             5%    15%     3%     6%     6%     4%     7%     1%     6%
Unfavorable           7      3      8      7      8      6      9      7      2
Hvn't hrd enough     87     81     89     85     85     89     83     92     90
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      2      1      1      -      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable             9%     5%    11%     7%     9%     9%     6%    10%    19%
Unfavorable           6      9      6      5      8      5      7      8      4
Hvn't hrd enough     83     86     81     86     81     85     86     81     75
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1      1      1      2
 
 
13. Is your opinion of George McDonald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable             5%    10%     3%     3%     5%     4%     3%     4%     8%
Unfavorable           5      6      6      3      5      5      4      5      7
Hvn't hrd enough     90     83     90     93     89     90     93     91     84
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      -      -      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Tom Allon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable             5%     5%     4%     5%     7%     3%     4%     5%     6%
Unfavorable           2      2      2      1      3      2      2      4      2
Hvn't hrd enough     92     92     93     92     89     94     93     91     91
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      1      1      1      -      2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            48%    90%    38%    55%    52%    46%    56%    32%    52%
Unfavorable          43      4     53     37     43     43     40     62     32
Hvn't hrd enough      6      3      6      3      4      8      3      4     13
REFUSED               3      3      3      4      2      4      2      3      4
 
 
16. If Rudy Giuliani supports a candidate for mayor, is that a positive or a negative when you decide whether to vote for that candidate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk   Hsp
 
Positive             42%    85%    32%    44%    41%    43%    45%    28%    50%
Negative             37      4     47     29     40     34     38     50     27
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL)   16     10     15     21     15     18     15     14     14
DK/NA                 5      1      6      5      5      6      3      8      8
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Positive             45%    45%    33%    42%    52%
Negative             35     36     45     35     27
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL)   14     15     15     20     15
DK/NA                 5      5      8      3      5
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill de Blasio is handling his job as Public Advocate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk   Hsp
 
Approve              48%    44%    53%    40%    49%    47%    49%    53%    42%
Disapprove           16     26     12     18     17     15     18     19     12
DK/NA                36     30     34     42     34     38     34     29     46
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Approve              43%    57%    41%    48%    47%
Disapprove           17     14     16     17     17
DK/NA                40     29     44     35     36
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill de Blasio is handling his job as Public Advocate?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jan 16  Nov 21  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 10  Nov 21  May 21
                     2013    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2010
 
Approve              48      49      45      39      48      49      34
Disapprove           16      14      16      17      13      14      16
DK/NA                36      37      39      44      39      37      50
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk   Hsp
 
Approve              64%    41%    73%    55%    60%    66%    61%    75%    59%
Disapprove           18     39     11     23     23     15     23     14     15
DK/NA                18     20     16     22     16     19     15     12     26
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Approve              59%    61%    66%    68%    61%
Disapprove           17     20     17     16     25
DK/NA                24     18     17     15     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jan 16  Nov 21  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 10  Nov 21  Nov 25
                     2013    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2008
 
Approve              64      65      56      55      57      65      40
Disapprove           18      18      27      24      23      18      29
DK/NA                18      18      17      21      20      18      31
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Liu is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk   Hsp
 
Approve              46%    39%    48%    44%    46%    46%    41%    58%    41%
Disapprove           27     39     22     32     33     23     35     19     23
DK/NA                27     22     29     24     21     32     24     22     36
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Approve              41%    51%    42%    45%    51%
Disapprove           25     25     29     29     32
DK/NA                35     23     29     27     17
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Liu is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jan 16  Nov 21  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 10  May 11  Dec 15
                     2013    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    2011
 
Approve              46      48      43      40      41      57      38
Disapprove           27      22      31      32      32      14      35
DK/NA                27      30      26      28      27      30      27
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lhota handled his job as head of the MTA?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk   Hsp
 
Approve              36%    55%    33%    36%    37%    35%    46%    23%    27%
Disapprove           46     27     47     50     47     45     34     63     53
DK/NA                18     18     20     14     16     20     19     14     20
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Approve              27%    43%    38%    32%    31%
Disapprove           54     40     39     50     58
DK/NA                19     17     23     18     11
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lhota handled his job as head of the MTA? (*handling job)
                     Jan 16  Nov 21
                     2013    2012*
 
Approve              36      38
Disapprove           46      45
DK/NA                18      17
 
 
27. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg should or should not use his personal wealth to support one of the candidates for New York City Mayor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Should use wealth    38%    36%    38%    39%    37%    38%    42%    34%    39%
No, should not       51     48     53     49     53     50     48     55     53
DK/NA                11     17      9     12     10     12      9     11      8
 
                     ANNUAL HSHOLD INC
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Should use wealth    37%    30%    45%
No, should not       52     59     45
DK/NA                11     11     10
 
TREND: Do you think Mayor Bloomberg should or should not use his personal wealth to support one of the candidates for New York City Mayor?
                     Jan 16  Nov 21
                     2013    2012
 
Should use wealth    38      39
No, should not       51      48
DK/NA                11      13
 

Demographic Summary