April 19, 2013 - With Big Negatives, Weiner At 15% Among NYC Democrats, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; All Voters Divided On Whether He Should Run

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Former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner gets 15 percent of Democratic primary voters in the New York City mayor's race, but he has a negative favorability, and all voters are evenly divided on whether he should run for mayor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Weiner gets a negative 33 - 41 percent favorability rating among all voters, with 23 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads the Democratic primary field with 28 percent, well short of the 40 percent needed to avoid a primary runoff. Her support includes 31 percent of women and 24 percent of men. Results for other candidates are:
  • 15 percent for Weiner, including 20 percent of men and 12 percent of women;
  • 11 percent for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, including 10 percent of men and 12 percent of women;
  • 10 percent for former City Comptroller William Thompson, including 14 percent of men and 7 percent of women;
  • 9 percent for City Comptroller John Liu, including 9 percent of men and 8 percent of women.
"The Democratic primary for New York City mayor still looks like Council Speaker Christine Quinn versus the guys," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "With his better name recognition, former Congressman Anthony Weiner jumps into the mix at 15 percent. With his negatives, however, the question is whether he can get much higher.

"The one significant element if he enters the race is that it makes it far less likely for Speaker Quinn to hit that magic 40 per cent."

"Who'd get into a runoff? The guys are all bunched up. It's way too early to tell," Carroll added.

Weiner should run for mayor this year, 41 percent of New York City voters say, while 44 percent say he should stay out of the race.

Men give Weiner a negative 36 - 43 percent favorability rating, compared to women with a negative 30 - 39 percent score. Favorability among Democrats is 38 - 34 percent.

Favorability ratings for other Democratic mayoral contenders are:
  • 45 - 27 percent for Quinn, with 26 percent who haven't heard enough about her;
  • 33 - 10 percent for de Blasio, with 55 percent who haven't heard enough about him;
  • 32 - 9 percent for Thompson, with 57 percent who haven't heard enough about him;
  • 31 - 22 percent for Liu, with 45 percent who haven't heard enough about him.
For former Metropolitan Transportation Authority Chair Joseph Lhota, the leading Republican candidate, 65 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

In head-to-head general election matchups, all the Democratic contenders beat Lhota:
  • Quinn leads Lhota 60 - 21 percent;
  • de Blasio tops Lhota 59 - 19 percent;
  • Thompson is up 55 - 19 percent;
  • Liu is ahead 56 - 22 percent;
  • Weiner leads 51 - 26 percent.
"The history of five straight mayoral elections aside, it still looks like a reliably blue Democratic town. Weiner joins his fellow Democrats in thumping Joe Lhota," Carroll said.

From April 15 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 New York City voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 740 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, Bill de Blasio, and Anthony Weiner, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Liu                   9%     9%     8%     5%     9%     6%
Quinn                28     24     31     31     22     35
Thompson             10     14      7      9     14      8
de Blasio            11     10     12     13      7     14
Weiner               15     20     12     15     18     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      3      3      3      1
DK/NA                24     20     26     23     26     24
 
TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, Bill de Blasio, and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................................
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16  Nov 21  Aug 15  May 10
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2012    2012    2012
 
Liu                   9       7       9       9       5       9       7
Quinn                28      32      37      35      32      29      26
Thompson             10      13      11      10      10      10      13
de Blasio            11      14      14      11       9       9      10
Weiner               15      na      na      na      na      na      na
Stringer             na      na      na      na       4       4       4
Allon                na      na      na      na      na       1       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       -       1       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2       2       2       2       2
DK/NA                24      30      27      31      37      34      34
 
 
2. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Christine Quinn the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Quinn                60%    13%    77%    44%    54%    65%    48%    74%    66%
Lhota                21     68      8     35     27     17     35      6     18
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      3      2      2      2      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      4      5      4      5      3      5      6
DK/NA                13     16      9     13     14     12     13     13      9
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Quinn                58%    61%    67%    54%    57%    60%    63%    57%
Lhota                25     19     18     23     28     16     21     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      1      3      1      -      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      4      6      4      5      4      4
DK/NA                11     14     10     15     10     19     10     11
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Quinn                65%    60%    65%    56%    43%
Lhota                19     19     20     23     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      -      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      6      5      3
DK/NA                 9     15      9     15     11
 
TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Christine Quinn the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Quinn                60      59      63      62
Lhota                21      19      19      17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       5       3       3
DK/NA                13      16      13      16
 
 
3. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Thompson             55%     8%    74%    40%    55%    56%    42%    75%    68%
Lhota                19     70      5     30     23     16     32      6     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      4      1      3      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      1      5      6      4      5      5      4      4
DK/NA                18     21     14     20     17     20     19     14     16
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Thompson             53%    57%    61%    59%    50%    44%    60%    58%
Lhota                22     17     16     19     26     20     18     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      -      4      3      -      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      4      5      2      5      8      5      3
DK/NA                18     19     19     16     15     27     15     15
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Thompson             68%    54%    59%    52%    33%
Lhota                17     17     17     22     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      4      1      1      6
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      5      5      5     13
DK/NA                12     20     18     21     14
 
TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Thompson             55      55      55      55
Lhota                19      17      20      19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       4       4       4
DK/NA                18      21      20      20
 
 
4. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            59%    19%    76%    39%    56%    61%    50%    69%    68%
Lhota                19     63      6     30     23     16     29      9     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      5      2      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      4      4      3      4      3      3      5
DK/NA                17     15     13     22     16     18     18     17     12
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
de Blasio            56%    61%    66%    59%    53%    52%    59%    63%
Lhota                20     18     17     19     24     18     20     19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      2      1      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      3      2      6      7      4      3
DK/NA                18     17     14     19     14     22     15     14
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
de Blasio            70%    59%    64%    51%    41%
Lhota                15     16     18     21     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      3      1      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      4      6      8
DK/NA                14     20     13     20     11
 
TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
de Blasio            59      55      58      57
Lhota                19      18      18      17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       5       4       4
DK/NA                17      19      18      20
 
 
5. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Liu                  56%    12%    75%    36%    54%    57%    39%    76%    65%
Lhota                22     74      7     32     25     19     35      8     15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      4      1      2      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      -      5      8      4      5      5      3      6
DK/NA                16     13     12     20     15     17     20     13     12
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Liu                  53%    58%    63%    56%    52%    56%    60%    54%
Lhota                25     19     18     22     27     14     21     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      2      1      -      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      4      5      5      5      7      4      4
DK/NA                15     17     14     15     15     22     12     15
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Liu                  63%    54%    60%    51%    50%
Lhota                21     19     20     24     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      1      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      8      5      3
DK/NA                13     20     11     19     10
 
TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Liu                  56      52      53
Lhota                22      20      22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       6       4
DK/NA                16      19      18
 
 
6. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat and Joseph Lhota the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Weiner               51%    10%    67%    40%    49%    53%    38%    66%    63%
Lhota                26     77     12     37     31     22     41     10     16
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      1      3      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      1      7      6      5      7      4      5      9
DK/NA                15     12     13     15     13     16     15     17      9
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Weiner               46%    54%    57%    51%    46%    52%    56%    47%
Lhota                31     24     23     26     35     21     26     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      4      2      -      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      5      5      5      7      5      6      7
DK/NA                14     15     15     14     11     21     12     13
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Weiner               60%    50%    54%    49%    34%
Lhota                24     23     25     30     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      2      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      6      6      5     11
DK/NA                12     19     13     14     10
 
 
7. Is your opinion of John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            31%    22%    35%    26%    36%    27%    24%    44%    24%
Unfavorable          22     32     18     30     24     21     32      8     17
Hvn't hrd enough     45     43     46     41     38     50     41     45     56
REFUSED               2      3      1      3      2      3      3      2      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            32%    30%    32%    32%    32%    30%    35%    28%
Unfavorable          28     19     14     29     27     13     21     29
Hvn't hrd enough     37     50     52     38     37     56     42     40
REFUSED               3      2      2      2      3      1      1      4
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Favorable            32%    26%    32%    34%    29%
Unfavorable          15     21     25     27     21
Hvn't hrd enough     46     52     41     38     46
REFUSED               7      1      2      1      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            31      31      34      28
Unfavorable          22      21      23      24
Hvn't hrd enough     45      46      42      46
REFUSED               2       2       2       2
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Christine Quinn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            45%    21%    52%    43%    44%    46%    42%    51%    46%
Unfavorable          27     57     19     32     32     23     37     14     22
Hvn't hrd enough     26     21     28     24     23     30     18     32     30
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      2      2      3      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            46%    44%    47%    42%    48%    34%    53%    46%
Unfavorable          33     23     19     40     33     19     27     32
Hvn't hrd enough     18     31     32     17     17     47     19     19
REFUSED               3      2      2      1      2      -      1      3
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Favorable            53%    43%    49%    39%    41%
Unfavorable          21     26     26     29     38
Hvn't hrd enough     22     29     22     31     21
REFUSED               4      2      3      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Christine Quinn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            45      49      51      54
Unfavorable          27      24      21      18
Hvn't hrd enough     26      25      27      26
REFUSED               2       2       1       2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            32%    21%    36%    30%    39%    26%    29%    44%    29%
Unfavorable           9     21      6     12     12      8     14      4      7
Hvn't hrd enough     57     57     57     57     48     65     56     49     62
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      2      1      1      3      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            32%    32%    32%    35%    30%    21%    33%    40%
Unfavorable          10      9      8     10     13      6     10     10
Hvn't hrd enough     55     58     59     55     54     72     56     48
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      2      -      1      2
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Favorable            37%    34%    31%    29%    23%
Unfavorable           9      8      9     12      9
Hvn't hrd enough     51     57     56     59     67
REFUSED               2      1      3      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 38% July 2009)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16  Aug 26  Aug 26  Feb 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2009    2009*   2009
 
Favorable            32      36      34      31      38      38      22
Unfavorable           9      10      10      10      10      10       5
Hvn't hrd enough     57      53      55      57      51      51      71
REFUSED               2       2       2       2       1       1       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            33%    32%    36%    25%    34%    32%    34%    38%    29%
Unfavorable          10     19      7     13     12      9     15      5     11
Hvn't hrd enough     55     46     55     58     51     57     49     55     59
REFUSED               2      3      1      3      3      2      2      2      1
      
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            35%    32%    34%    40%    33%    29%    33%    36%
Unfavorable          11     10      9      8     13      6     10     13
Hvn't hrd enough     52     57     56     51     51     65     54     49
REFUSED               2      2      1      1      3      1      3      2
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Favorable            36%    36%    34%    26%    29%
Unfavorable          11     11     10     10      9
Hvn't hrd enough     52     50     53     63     58
REFUSED               1      2      3      1      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            33      34      39      35
Unfavorable          10      11      13      11
Hvn't hrd enough     55      52      46      52
REFUSED               2       2       2       2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Anthony Weiner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            33%    17%    38%    32%    36%    30%    30%    41%    31%
Unfavorable          41     65     34     47     43     39     55     25     31
Hvn't hrd enough     23     16     26     18     17     28     12     28     36
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      4      3      2      5      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            33%    33%    32%    36%    35%    33%    38%    29%
Unfavorable          49     35     34     45     50     32     39     49
Hvn't hrd enough     14     29     30     17     12     34     20     18
REFUSED               4      3      3      2      3      1      3      4
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Favorable            39%    32%    32%    35%    20%
Unfavorable          36     43     39     40     53
Hvn't hrd enough     20     23     25     21     25
REFUSED               6      2      3      5      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Anthony Weiner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Apr 19  Mar 24  Feb 24  Jan 27 Nov 25
                     2013    2009    2009    2009   2008
 
Favorable            33      31      32      34     31
Unfavorable          41      13      12      10     10
Hvn't hrd enough     23      55      55      54     57
REFUSED               3       2       2       2      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Joseph Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            19%    42%    12%    28%    25%    15%    29%     9%    14%
Unfavorable          14      6     18      8     18     10     14     15     12
Hvn't hrd enough     65     50     68     63     54     74     56     72     73
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      3      1      1      4      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            22%    18%    18%    20%    25%    15%    19%    23%
Unfavorable          17     11     12     14     17     10     13     16
Hvn't hrd enough     58     70     68     65     55     75     66     59
REFUSED               3      2      2      1      3      -      2      2
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Favorable            19%    17%    20%    18%    35%
Unfavorable          16     13     16     14      4
Hvn't hrd enough     59     70     61     67     61
REFUSED               6      1      2      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joseph Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Apr 19  Apr 10  Feb 27  Jan 16
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            19      19      18      19
Unfavorable          14      14      15      11
Hvn't hrd enough     65      65      66      69
REFUSED               2       1       1       1
 
 
13. Do you think Anthony Weiner should or should not run for Mayor this year?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Should run           41%    25%    45%    41%    44%    38%    33%    53%    44%
Should not           44     64     40     47     44     45     55     31     42
DK/NA                15     11     15     12     13     16     12     15     14
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Should run           36%    44%    44%    44%    39%    48%    44%    34%
Should not           52     40     38     46     55     30     47     50
DK/NA                12     16     18     10      6     22      9     16
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl
 
Should run           49%    38%    37%    45%    33%
Should not           34     43     48     45     63
DK/NA                17     19     15     10      4
 
 

Demographic Summary